Matt Lanza

Well, we hope everyone got some sleep last night. For parts of the area, it was quite the noisy evening. Here’s the rainfall since yesterday evening:

Rain totals since yesterday evening have been certainly manageable by Houston standards with the main issue being minor street flooding and/or ponding. The heaviest rain fell from near Memorial Park through Alief into Sugar Land, with about 2 inches, give or take. Galveston received around an inch of rain, but it’s also been quite breezy there, with winds gusting as high as 49 mph (before 2 AM). We fortunately missed out on extreme rainfall yesterday and overnight. That hit just south of Lake Charles, where as much as 8 to 10 inches of rain fell.

Today starts the transition out of this wetter pattern, setting up a cloudy but overall fair Easter weekend.

Friday

We think the worst of the rain is over for Houston. However, that doesn’t mean all the rain is over. Expect off and on showers, drizzle, or light rain today across the area. Our higher resolution modeling is trying to fire back up a period of slightly heavier rain and storms later today to the west of Houston. So I would not be shocked to see one more round of perhaps some moderate to heavy rain and thunder later today or this evening.

With all that said, we will discontinue the Stage 1 flood alert. We do think some minor ponding is still possible, especially in areas that have seen a good bit of rain since Wednesday, but for the most part, we should be able to manage what’s left to come without too much trouble. As always, use care with the wet roads.

Outside of rain, today looks cloudy and cool. Temperatures will warm only a bit from where they’re currently sitting (50s from Houston N & W, 60s S & E of Houston).

Saturday & Sunday

We can’t completely rule out rain tomorrow, but at this point it looks like any chances will be mostly in the morning and mostly minor in nature. Expect a good deal of clouds for Saturday, with morning lows in the 50s, warming into the low-70s.

The biggest problem this weekend will be cloud cover. We are going to have a lot of low level moisture “trapped” under an inversion (or “cap”) in the atmosphere. In addition, we’re going to have middle and high level clouds overhead too. On Sunday, we lose those higher clouds, so hopefully the sun will scour out some of the low clouds during the late morning or afternoon.

So, for Easter Sunday, expect morning clouds giving way to some afternoon sunshine. We’ll have morning lows, as seen above, generally in the 50s to low-60s. The afternoon will depend on sunshine, but we will call it mid-70s on average for now. Rain chances won’t be quite zero, but they are low.

Monday & Tuesday

For Monday, we may be able to squeeze out a few showers in the area, but skies will be partly sunny for the most part. Morning lows will be near 60, with highs in the mid-70s once more. Tuesday looks very similar, so we’ll simply copy and paste Monday’s forecast for now, but we may need to downgrade Tuesday a bit when we get closer.

Mid to late next week

The rest of next week looks pretty decent here in Houston. I would suspect we see increasing sunshine and also increasing temperatures, along with slowly increasing humidity. Look for highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s by the end of the week. We may want to watch for slightly higher shower chances Wednesday, but overall it looks fine right now.

One item of curiosity: The Gulf of Mexico may see some shenanigans next week. While we aren’t looking at anything serious, and we are not looking at anything in Texas right now, we may be looking at “a thing.”

Models have been pretty consistent in some type of surface low pressure developing under an upper level low pressure system in the north-central Gulf and slowly working inland between New Orleans and Panama City, FL. It’s not tropical in nature, as other meteorological processes are driving this, but it could bring some rain and modestly gusty winds to parts of the Gulf Coast well east of our area later next week. There has never been a tropical storm that has formed in the Gulf in April that we know of, and frankly, this system is probably too close to the coast to have enough time to pull that transition and feat off. Still, if you are planning a trip to the eastern Gulf Coast next week, keep tabs on the forecast and maybe prepare for some less than desirable beach weather.

We’ve got a mixed bag of spring weather coming our way over the next two or three days, but we should be able to squeeze one pretty nice day out of everything. Top of mind will be today’s chances of thunderstorms. While there is definitely a chance of showers or some storms, we feel pretty confident that the worst of the weather today will stay comfortably north and east of our region.

This morning

No serious issues are expected this morning. There will be a fair bit of low clouds and maybe some sprinkles, light rain, or drizzle around. Beyond that, nothing much.

This afternoon

Our cold front today and tonight won’t be a classic one for us, where it pushes through with storms and we drop 10 degrees as it moves away. Rather, this will come in pieces. The first of those is this afternoon with a weak front or dryline (humidity & wind shift boundary) that pushes through. We think there will be at least a period of showers as that passes, but those may end up being primarily north of I-10. It’s entirely possible that most areas south of I-10 get absolutely nothing meaningful today.

The highest chances of severe weather will be well off to our north and east, primarily into northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and northwest Mississippi. We think a pretty stout “cap” in the atmosphere will limit our chances. Again, capping just means that there’s a layer of warming temperatures as you go up in the atmosphere which tends to inhibit storm development. Most modeling shows this cap holding through the afternoon. If the cap were to somehow weaken today (very unlikely), storms could fire up pretty quick, especially to the north and east of Houston.

Once that boundary passes and moves to our east, skies should clear out for the evening. It may actually be a lovely evening with lower humidity and warm temperatures. We’ll top off in the 80s in most spots.

Tonight

Fog may briefly develop this evening before the final kick of drier air pushes in. Keep an eye out for that, especially along the coast, where it could linger into the overnight. Otherwise, it will be clear and comfortable with lows in the 50s to low-60s away from the coast.

Saturday

Tomorrow will be the type of day I’d look forward to in early May: Sunny and warm with low humidity most of the day. Expect highs to pop into the mid-80s, about 8 to 10 degrees above normal. Hey, break out the shorts!

Sunday

I think your chance of rain is higher on Sunday than it is most of the next few days. Here’s the deal. We have a warm front coming north from the Gulf. Dewpoints are going to surge 15 to 20 degrees higher on Sunday, which means our comfortable Saturday afternoon air mass is going to be replaced by a Gulf-infused, very humid one on Sunday afternoon. The result? Scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Warm fronts are always a bit tricky because they can surprise you on the active side. I don’t want to say that Sunday will be a total washout for anyone, but we may need a follow up post on Sunday morning if it looks worse than expected right now. Prepare for some rain to interfere with your day. As a result of the clouds and higher humidity, high temperatures will peak cooler in the mid-70s after starting in the lower half of the 60s.

Next week

The weather for next week is a little tricky. We don’t really have a dominant pattern in place. We’ll probably see a weak front either late Monday or Tuesday that knocks back temperatures a few degrees. We’ll then warm back up later next week, possibly significantly so. In terms of day to day specifics, there may be a decent chance of showers on either Monday or Tuesday, followed by a couple quieter days, and then more isolated to scattered storm chances before the weekend.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day to those who celebrate. Just a little different out there this morning! Temperatures versus 24 hours are much colder.

We are running 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, and that disparity will probably worsen through the day as temperatures stagnate. It feels more like a Valentine’s Day than a St. Patrick’s Day.

Today

Last night’s line of storms is now long gone, but we are left with showers that will actually tick up in intensity some in the Houston area over the next hour or two.

Look for rain or showers to continue through probably midday across much of the area, and even then it will only gradually shut off. Temperatures will go almost nowhere today, stuck in the 40s, maybe up to low-50s in a few spots later this afternoon. The wind will continue howling at times as well through the day.

Tonight

Cody Johnson takes the stage tonight at the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo, and you’ll want to dress warmly! Temperatures will be near 50 degrees on your way in and in the upper 40s on your way out with a continued breeze. Rain should be done with, but it will still be a bit damp.

Low temperatures tonight will bottom out generally in the 40s area-wide. Some light rain showers are possible toward morning.

Saturday & Sunday

Look for another cloud-dominant day tomorrow. Temperatures will probably again struggle into the mid-50s at best. A few passing showers will be around, especially south of Houston. It’s entirely possible that a few areas see some sleet mix in with the rain, though I’m not sure it will be precipitating hard enough for that to happen. For those of you planning outdoor activities, there’s probably a better chance than not that you’ll be mainly dry this weekend, but it will remain breezy and chilly and mostly cloudy.

Morning lows will be chilly on Sunday. We expect 30s and 40s for minimums. A freeze is not a concern in the Houston area, but it’ll certainly feel cold. Look for another day of mostly cloudy skies and low-end shower chances on Sunday, with highs perhaps a little better into the mid or even upper-50s. Either way, be ready for a chilly finale to the Rodeo!

A quick note: If your travels are to or from Big Bend or Guadalupe Mountains National Park this weekend, there is a good chance of some snow out that way. Higher elevations of West Texas may see an inch or two of snowfall from this moisture and cold.

More a curiosity than a travel woe, but certainly impressive for mid-March!

Monday and Tuesday

Look for another day of mid or upper-50s after morning lows in the 30s and 40s on Monday. Monday morning may be the coldest of this stretch with widespread mid to upper-30s. Tuesday will see 40s to low-50s in the morning and upper-60s in the afternoon. Both days will be partly sunny with a low-end chance of showers.

Later next week

We will certainly warm up a lot on Wednesday and Thursday. Look for mid to upper-70s on Wednesday and 80s on Thursday. Both days should see at least some sunshine.

Beyond that, we may see another cold front around next Friday or Saturday to offer some comfortable weather next weekend and early on the week of the 27th. More on that next week.

Yesterday was a big swing and a miss for many. Ultimately it ended up being a lovely late day, but the morning smoke that took a bit longer to disperse than hoped really added a sour taste to yesterday’s weather. The good news is that the air quality this morning is great. No issues at all in the area. We do have some weather coming later today in parts of the area, however. And given the wind forecast, you may want to bring in any loose objects that have ended up outdoors during spring break week.

This morning

For most of us, the early morning should be fine. Some showers have begun breaking out north and west of College Station, and they will move east over the next couple hours though. An isolated heavier downpour is possible. Outside of that, watch for the wind to begin gradually picking up as well. In fact, wind may be the most notable story today for everyone, with frequent 25 to 35 mph gusts.

Winds will remain gusty into the afternoon and tonight.

This afternoon

Once that little wave of showers moves through, we’ll begin to setup the chances for some strong to severe storms. The primary risk today will be north of I-10, possibly well north of there, where capping is the weakest. Recall, capping usually means that the atmosphere is able to suppress the growth of thunderstorms a bit. South of I-10, capping is likely to remain fairly strong deep into the afternoon, limiting severe risk. Ultimately, it may be areas along and north of Highway 105 that have the best chance for some severe thunderstorms later today.

The Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight risk (level 2/5) for most of the Houston area and a marginal risk (1/5) along the coast. If any storms can develop, strong winds, hail, or an isolated tornado will be possible. Again, in the immediate Houston area, this seems unlikely, but the chance is enough to make sure you pay attention today. You’ll certainly want to watch north of The Woodlands, where the risk increases.

Outside any severe weather, there will continue to be a few showers or pockets of light rain. Warm temperatures though, with highs pushing 80 south and west of Houston. And yes, continued windy.

Tonight

Things may actually break this evening for a time. Honestly, if you’re headed to the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo for Chris Stapleton tonight, you may be fine. Again, keep tabs on the situation and heed any weather alerts from Rodeo officials in the unlikely event they materialize. Look for 70s on your way in — and out.

The next phase of weather will be the cold front itself. The good news is that the timing is likely to occur while most of the area is asleep. That may also be bad news if you have a pet or child that wakes up during thunderstorms. You’ve been warned.

The front itself will arrive around midnight in the Brazos Valley, 1-3 AM in the northwest Houston/Montgomery County area, 2-4 AM in Houston and the immediate southeast, and 3-5 AM at the coast. With it? A line of showers and gusty thunderstorms seems likely. Locally heavy rain will also be possible. The real nasty weather should only last 30-45 minutes or less, but the rain showers will linger well into Friday morning. While severe weather is not necessarily expected with this squall line, there is the chance for a couple warnings due to strong wind gusts. Outside of storms even, strong, non-severe wind gusts will persist tonight.

Friday

The front will be offshore Friday morning, and it’s going to feel a heck of a lot different than Thursday. Temperatures will plunge behind the front into the upper-40s or low-50s and only rise a little bit through the day Friday. Wind gusts will probably peak on Friday morning and then slowly drop off Friday afternoon and evening. But it will feel quite raw.

In terms of weather, rain is likely to continue at varying intensity (light to moderate) through the morning hours, possibly diminishing from west to east by early afternoon. Overall, tomorrow looks like an indoors type day if you have any spring break plans.

Saturday through Monday

The weather looks to be some version of the same thing on both weekend days and Monday. Both Saturday and Sunday look to be mostly cloudy, cool, and breezy. Expect lows in the 40s, highs in the 50s, and at least a slight chance of some pockets of light rain as some weak disturbances pass through in the upper atmosphere. I mentioned ice pellets as a possibility yesterday, and while unlikely, I will not be shocked if someone reports brief, light sleet on Saturday or Sunday, especially west of Houston.

Monday’s forecast is a little trickier as models are shifting around on potential impacts from one more disturbance passing by. We’ll call it pretty similar to Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 50s and morning lows in the 40s, but we’ll have more on that tomorrow.

Tuesday and beyond

The specific weather forecast gets a little more uncertain beyond Monday. What we do know: Temperatures will warm up. But whether that comes with sunshine or more clouds and rain chances is TBD. Look for highs in the 60s on Tuesday, well into the 70s on Wednesday, and perhaps 80s again by Thursday.