Matt Lanza

In brief: A few showers are possible today, but for the most part Saturday should be an okay day. Another round of storms and potential heavy rain arrives tonight and Sunday which could renew street flooding in spots. Quieter, hotter weather arrives next week.

For the latest flood gauge information, visit the National Weather Service or Harris County Flood Control websites.

Also, don’t forget that we have an app for Android and Apple that you can download to browse the site, access some features, and be notified of posts.

The East Fork of the San Jacinto has crested at New Caney but will only slowly fall.

To the south, the West Fork of the San Jacinto at Humble is expected to crest on Sunday and remain in major flood until at least Monday or Tuesday.

The San Jacinto will continue in major flood downstream as well, with very fast flow passing barges near I-10 which could lead to some loss of mooring.

Unfortunately, the Trinity in Liberty County is going to remain just shy of record levels for several days, allowing major flooding to continue.

Please continue to heed the advice of local officials and never drive around barricades.

Saturday morning & afternoon

The good news this morning is that radar is vacant around Houston for the first time in some time. There are a few storms passing through the Beaumont-Port Arthur area up toward Jasper, but they’re moving offshore or into Louisiana. I would expect the morning to be fine in most areas.

With daytime heating, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should begin to develop this afternoon. These will be hit and miss; some people will see downpours, others will be dry. I expect these will move along at a decent pace. The belief is that both the movement and the actual rain rates with these will be a bit lower than we’ve seen in recent days. The best chance for this will be north of I-10 after 12 to 2 PM, which isn’t great news for areas dealing with river flooding, but hopefully they don’t add much to problems. We should make the low to mid-80s today.

Tonight & Sunday morning

Here’s why Flood Watches remain in effect. Storms this afternoon in Central and West Texas will slide east with a disturbance and likely congeal into a well organized area of rain and thunderstorms. This should arrive in our area tonight, after 12 to 2 AM or so. There are still questions regarding how this plays out. Some model guidance shows less organization to the storms and more scattered type activity. Other data suggests it will push through at a good clip. And yet other data has sort of a repetitive scenario, where we see multiple rounds of storms, much like occurred on Friday and Thursday.

For now, a widespread half-inch seems reasonable for Houston and points south, with 1 to 2 inches north of Houston. There will almost certainly be higher amounts, with the most likely areas being north of Houston. In those spots, 2 to 5 inches of rain could fall on top of already saturated ground, leading to rapid street flooding. This would be mostly a concern in the northern part of Harris, Montgomery, and Liberty Counties and points north. If you have outdoor Sunday plans, it would be best to have an indoor backup plan available.

In addition to rain, some storms could be strong with a couple perhaps producing some modest hail or strong winds.

Monday & next week

We expect the pattern to begin to transition beginning Monday into the forecast heat for next week. While a few showers or storms are possible, significant weather is not expected on Monday. The main story will be heat next week, building through the week.

Heat will build up to “major” levels, as classified by the National Weather Service, with low to mid-90s likely for highs by Wednesday and/or Thursday. Given that this will be our first real heat of the season, give your body some extra time to adjust. We’re not used to it just yet. We’ll have more tomorrow, or later today if necessary on the rain.

In brief: Flash flood warnings are in effect for Montgomery, far northern Harris, and Liberty Counties this morning, as an additional 1 to 4 inches of rain has fallen. River flooding will continue in those areas as well, with numerous evacuation orders and road closures in effect. Major rain should hopefully exit this morning with more intermittent, scattered downpours through the day. Additional storm chances exist tonight and especially Sunday before the heat sets in next week.

A flash flood warning is in effect north of Houston through 8 AM, as another batch of heavy rain fired up overnight dropping 1 to 4 inches of rain between southern Montgomery, northeast Harris, and northern Liberty Counties.

This is not where we wanted to see the rain this morning. We do expect that this will actually move along at a better clip than yesterday’s rain did. Hopefully that leads to some quicker improvement, but all this water will help further swell the river systems up there. You can view flood gauge information on rivers, creeks, and bayous at the National Weather Service or at Harris County Flood Control. Please follow the advice of your local officials, and never drive around barricades.

A Flood Watch remains in effect along and north of I-10, extended through Saturday, and we will maintain our Stage 1 flood alert for Houston.

The San Jacinto and Trinity Rivers remain the two most serious issues at this time. There will continue to be rises and damaging flooding within both systems. Additionally, the Navasota River is expected to crest at record levels north of Bryan. That feeds the Brazos, and we’re likely to see high water or minor flooding begin in that river too as we head into next week. Thankfully, we aren’t expecting a whole lot worse in that system. A lot happening, and we’ll keep you posted on any significant changes with at least one more update later today.

Today

The rest of this morning is expected to see this very heavy stuff north of Houston exit east and be replaced by more in the way of scattered thunderstorms.

If we can pop more in the way of scattered storms, yes, that will lead to isolated heavy downpours, but more often than not it wouldn’t rain over one place hard for more than 15-20 minutes at a time. Even a few rounds of that is more manageable than the deluge and 2 to 6 inch per hour rates we’ve seen this week. We’ll continue watching and keep you posted. Have an umbrella and an indoor backup plan anywhere in the area today just in case. Highs will range from the upper-70s in places it rains persistently to low-80s. Showers should diminish in coverage this evening.

Saturday

Do we expect more showers and storms to fire up overnight tonight and Saturday morning? It’s NBA playoff season, so in the words of Marv Albert, “Yes!” Unfortunately we will probably see additional rains in saturated and flood-impacted areas north of Houston. There is a chance that this ends up being a little less rain than today, so hopefully that’s the case. Otherwise, sun, clouds, and 80s.

Sunday

The back half of the weekend looks to remain unsettled. Another wave of storms could pass through the area in the morning or afternoon hours, especially north of I-10, again. Rainfall could again be heavy, and right now I am a little more concerned about Sunday than Saturday in terms of rain and impacts. Outside of any storms, expect clouds, some sun, and highs in the 80s.

Next week

I wouldn’t be shocked to see one more round of showers or storms on Monday or Tuesday, but then the heat cranks up. Expect upper 80s on Monday, low-90s by Tuesday, and low to mid-90s on Wednesday and Thursday.

It will feel uncomfortably hot, given this is first real heat of the summer season, so take it easy. Morning lows will generally be in the mid-70s. We may see rain chances return toward the weekend but for now that’s mostly speculation, and I wouldn’t be changing any Mother’s Day plans at this time.

In brief: The word for the weekend is windy. We’ll see 30 to 40 mph wind gusts at times through Saturday, before things calm a bit by early next week. The weather will turn unsettled, with variable chances of daily showers and storms well into next week. We’ll likely see isolated activity today and slightly better rain coverage on Sunday and Monday.

Today

Hold on to your hats, folks. Wind gusts started picking up yesterday afternoon, up to about 30 mph or so. We will likely see that again today, perhaps most of the day this time. Wind will be the most noticeable element over the next few days. A few showers or even a thunderstorm are possible later this afternoon, with the highest chances north of Houston. Highs will be into the 80s once again.

A couple showers or even a thunderstorm will be possible into the first half of the overnight hours tonight.

Saturday

Saturday just looks like another windy, warm, humid day. Winds should be at their strongest on Saturday, with gusts as high as 35 mph or even stronger over the water.

Highs in the 80s, lows in the 70s.

Best of luck to any IRONMAN participants or MS 150 riders. We think Saturday will have that solid southeast or south-southeast (mostly) tail wind, at times 30 to 40 mph. For those less seasoned MS 150 riders, please exercise caution with some of the gusts you’ll experience.

Sunday and Monday

Winds will slowly subside on Sunday, but we should still see plentiful 20 to 30 mph gusts. It’s beginning to look as if a line of thunderstorms will develop in Hill Country in the predawn hours Sunday, sweeping east and southeast while weakening. They may fire back up as they approach the Houston area in the afternoon hours. Details on this are still somewhat TBD, but a couple hours of heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning are a good possibility anywhere in the area Sunday afternoon. Severe weather can’t be entirely ruled out, but it’s not highly likely for Houston.

This will be something to watch for MS 150 riders, as the storms could be better organized crossing I-35 and approaching the Brazos Valley and College Station. It will have to be a Saturday or Sunday gametime decision in all likelihood.

Monday will see additional chances at scattered showers and storms. Whether it’s hit or miss activity or something more widespread and organized remains to be seen.

Another round of highs in the 80s and lows in the 70s are expected both days.

Rest of next week

We will likely continue with daily shower and storm chances into next week. Some days will have better rain chances than others, but because there’s a lot of quick moving traffic in the upper atmosphere, it’s a little difficult to try and time when a disturbance will hit and produce storms here. The good news is that the severe weather risk continues to look mostly north of our area. We will continue with fairly stable temps and high humidity, with highs in the 80s and lows mainly in the 70s.

Summary: We are hoisting a Stage 1 flood alert for areas northwest of Houston that should see heavy rain later today. Street flooding is a good bet in those areas. Houston and points south and east will see substantially less rainfall. Things quiet down and cool down tomorrow.

Good morning! We covered the forecast mostly fine yesterday, but now that things are in focus, we can fine tune some details for you for today. First off, we are going to issue a Stage 1 flood alert on our Flood Scale for areas northwest of Houston. This means that we expect street flooding in spots, and it’s possible that we see some decent rises on some of the creeks or rivers in those areas. We could see enough rain to impact the Spring or Cypress Creek watersheds, among some others with rises or minor flooding. Also, the larger river systems north or northwest of Houston (Brazos, San Jacinto, Trinity) could see some decent rises.

Unique about this particular setup: Areas south and east of Houston may see minimal rainfall. Some places may even see no rain at all.

Here are a few more notes about this event.

Timing: There are already a few showers south of Victoria moving toward Matagorda, and through early afternoon a handful of isolated showers are possible. Most folks will be fine though. Between about 2 and 6 PM, we expect more isolated showers or storms anywhere in the area, eventually focusing northwest of Houston by evening in the areas of concern noted above. If you’re attending the Dynamo game this evening, I’m not too worried, but don’t be entirely shocked if it rains a bit or there is a brief lightning delay at some point. The worst rains north and west of Houston will be from about 6 PM through midnight, with everything eventually getting pushed east overnight and out of the area by morning. Some clouds or light rain will be possible Sunday morning.

Rain totals: You can see the forecast above, but there are risks. Houston and points south and east will see an inch or less, probably less than a half-inch in most spots. As you progress north and west from Downtown Houston, we should quickly see totals of 1 to 3 inches. In extreme northwest Harris County, Montgomery County, portions of Waller County, and north of there, expect 2 to 4 inches. A few locations in those areas will likely see 4 to 7 inches of rain, if not a bit more. This is where we are most concerned with flooding.

Again, there will likely be a sharp cutoff between 1 to 2 inch rains and minimal rain somewhere in the Houston area.

And Sunday? Cooler! Look for breezy conditions and temperatures stuck in the 60s for most of tomorrow. Some light rain or a few showers may linger in the morning, with gradual PM clearing. Overnight lows into Monday morning still look to be in the 40s and 50s.

Should anything serious change, we’ll update you later. Otherwise, just stay safe and make sure you stay weather aware, especially northwest of Houston later today.