Matt Lanza

In brief: A spectacular Friday and a winner of a Saturday will close Houston’s spring break week out nicely. Sunday will be warm and humid before a powerful cold front brings a pinch of rain and some potent winds in the evening and overnight hours. Much colder weather will drop temperatures from the 80s Sunday evening to the 40s Monday morning. Things then calm down.

After a cool but delightful Thursday, we set sail for another winner of a day today.

Friday & Saturday

It’ll be a cool start to the morning, but the day should warm up nicely, with highs in the mid or even upper-70s in spots on Friday. Saturday looks much the same with highs near 80 degrees. Humidity will slowly begin to inch upward later today and on Saturday, which you won’t notice a ton. Morning lows will be in the 50s tomorrow.

Rodeo Forecast

Spectacular evening for getting (responsibly) tipsy with Shaboozey. Temps will fall from the 70s into the 60s through the evening with light winds. The weather continues to look good for a moment like this on Saturday with Kelly Clarkson. Expect temperatures mainly in the 70s, maybe dipping into the upper-60s late. And then Sunday, it’ll be a little breezier and a little cloudier. Temperatures will be much warmer, and it will be humid. Look for 80s with a south wind blowing in around 20 to 30 mph. Prometiste.

Sunday night and Monday

Here’s where the forecast gets a little wild. The cold front hits the area in the evening hours Sunday, after highs in the mid-80s. It will probably carry a broken line of thunderstorms. We don’t currently expect any severe weather from this, but it’s possible some strong storms occur, especially in northeast Harris or Liberty County. The area is in a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms. But the front is going to arrive with some oomph. As winds flip around to come out of the north, they could gust over 40 mph for a few hours Sunday evening. Temperatures will also drop about 30 to 40 degrees from highs in the 80s to lows in the 40s.

We try not to be too preachy on the blog here, but this is one of those times where we’ll strongly encourage you to secure any loose outdoor objects, as these may be our strongest post-frontal winds since October, or even since last March. Those wind gusts will keep up into Monday morning, though slowly back off their peak levels, still probably 30 to 40 mph though. After Noon on Monday, winds should more rapidly drop off into the 20s mph. We are probably not getting out of the mid to upper-50s on Monday, even with sunshine. Monday night will be cold with lows in the 30s and low-40s.

Rest of next week

We sort of break out of this fairly active weather pattern next week, with quieter weather, warming temperatures, and increasing humidity. 70s should return by Wednesday and 80s by Thursday. Our next chance at rain after Sunday may be a good way away.

In brief: Saturday’s forecast in Houston has some perplexity to it in terms of when and where storms will occur, but we’re leaning toward a quieter first half of the day, with storm chances increasing Saturday evening and overnight. Hail is possible in a couple of the strongest storms. Sunday could see locally strong storms with heavy downpours. Don’t forget to “spring forward” Saturday night!

We’ve got some more active weather in the cards for this weekend but nothing that’s too scary. It’s mostly going to serve as a reminder that we still get storms here sometimes!

Today

No real concerns today, as we’re likely to see clouds, some sun, and highs in the 80s. There could be a passing pocket of light rain or a shower. Even a rogue thunderclap can’t be entirely ruled out this afternoon, especially north and west of Houston. Continue to be mindful of dense, erratic sea fog near the coast. We may see that break up some today and return tonight.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast gets busier for this weekend. While an isolated shower or storm can’t be ruled out overnight, especially off to the northwest of Houston, it doesn’t appear much will occur before tomorrow morning. However, on Saturday, we expect showers and thunderstorms to develop later in the afternoon or evening. The entire area away from the coast is under a slight risk (2/5) for severe thunderstorms on Saturday.

Based on what I can tell from forecast models and the NWS discussions, the primary driver for the slight risk is potential for isolated large hail. Storms could still carry lightning obviously or isolated strong wind gusts, but from a “severe” perspective, hail seems to be driving the risk. That said, we do not expect hail all over the city…I just want to make that clear. Any large hail would probably be confined to a few neighborhoods only in the strongest storms.

But what about timing? Well, the European model has insisted for days now that a squall line of storms would push through Houston in the afternoon hours. Now that we’re in range of higher resolution model guidance, the picture is a lot murkier. Most high-res models keep most of the area storm free during the daylight hours Saturday. You can compared the Euro to the HRRR model above. However, by later Saturday evening, that may be when you’ve got the chance for stronger storms in a few spots, especially north and west of Houston. So there’s some inherent uncertainty tomorrow, but for the most part I don’t think you’ll have too many issues in the morning or early afternoon. Storm chances will perk up in the later afternoon and evening hours, especially north and west of Houston I think. We’ll update you on this tomorrow morning.

For Sunday, right now I would say scattered thunderstorms throughout the day, with perhaps a focus north of I-10 in the first half of the day and south of I-10 in the second half of the day. Locally strong storms are possible, and one or two could put down some significant rainfall in a short amount of time, so be mindful of street flooding in areas that see the most persistent storms Sunday.

Rodeo forecast

If you’re headed to the Rodeo this weekend, you’ve got few concerns tonight for Lizzo. It looks good. There will be that chance of a thunderstorm on Saturday, especially upon exiting Dwight Yoakam. Just be aware of the potential, but as noted above, storms will at least be possible. Temps will be in the low to mid-70s each evening. Sunday may be the highest odds of showers and thunderstorms, along with locally heavy rain. Even if it isn’t raining when you leave, if you’re headed to see Forrest Frank, you’ll want the raincoat and a little extra time to get to and from NRG Stadium just in case. Temps should be in the mid to upper-70s.

Early next week

Monday and Tuesday look sufficiently quiet right now with nothing worse than a rogue shower. Highs will be in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s and low-70s.

Wednesday

After those quieter days Monday and Tuesday, it does look like we get a quick but potent storm system in the area on Wednesday. It’s too soon to speak with much confidence about this system or its potential, but early indications are that there will be at least some strong to perhaps severe storms, especially the first half of Wednesday, especially north of I-10. The SPC has highlighted the north side of the city in Wednesday’s severe weather risk, which is akin to saying a slight risk (2/5) this far out.

More to come on this next week.

In brief: It should be pretty hot in Greater Houston today, as humidity drops and the sun comes out. More warm weather continues into next week. We may also finally see some legitimate rain chances in the forecast by late next week or weekend. Details are TBD, but the signals for unsettled weather are there.

Updated 2/27 11:10 AM…see editor’s note below.

Houston failed to hit record highs Thursday, but as Eric noted in the morning, despite the clouds, we still managed another 80-degree day, with 83 for a high yesterday. That was our 14th 80 degree day of meteorological winter, which puts us in 5th place all time for most wintertime 80s behind 2021, 2025, 2017, and 1911. We tied with 2012. We will probably finish with 16 total this winter, putting us in a tie with 1911 for 4th place. More 80s to come.

Editor’s Note: Thank you to astute reader JFS in the comments. 2025-26 actually holds the record for most 80 degree days in a winter, and it’s not quite close. Matt made the mistake of lumping December 2026 (which has not happened yet) with January and February 2026, instead of using December 2025. Foolish math error, and I apologize.

2025-26 should finish at 25 80 degrees days, besting the 2021-22 and 2016-17 record of 22. Yes, this was a historically warm winter in Houston.

Today through Sunday

We have some patchy fog around the area this morning, but rest assured, humidity is going to tumble after about 9 to 10 AM. With increasing sunshine, that should allow temperatures to launch into the mid-80s this afternoon. I would not be shocked to see us bust hotter than forecast in some spots, with enough sunshine.

As we go into Saturday and Sunday, the song remains mostly the same: Some morning clouds, afternoon sun, and highs generally in the low to mid-80s. It will be breezy each afternoon, with some gusts up to 20 or 25 mph possible. Humidity will creep back up as well.

Monday through Wednesday

Things look repetitive on Monday and Tuesday with more of the same. By the time we get to Wednesday, we are going to begin to see a change in the weather pattern over the southern Plains. This will introduce at least a chance of showers or thunderstorms to the forecast on Wednesday afternoon, though it’s too far out to be too confident in anything specific right now.

Later next week

This change in the pattern is expected to have some legs late next week. The Climate Prediction Center’s hazards outlook for days 8 to 14 does highlight East Texas for heavy rain risk on March 6th through the 10th.

I’ve been following this for the last few days, trying to get a sense of how “real” a change this is, or if it’s the modeling bluffing. One fail mode in these situations is where all the rain ends up from northeast Texas into the Ohio Valley and we get maybe one or two bursts, an inch or two, and that’s it. That may happen here too, but there is pretty good across the board model agreement on at least unsettled weather for southeast Texas.

I do think the heavier rain risk is probably in that northeast Texas belt from roughly Waco through Texarkana right now, but either way, we should get at least one or two periods of rain and thunderstorms beginning later next week and into the weekend in our area too. Whether it’s enough to truly dent the drought, we shall see.

In brief: Today, we look at how drought has changed in the Houston area since last weekend’s rain (it hasn’t). We also take stock of our weekend cold front and look out in time at rain chances over the next 10 days, which are generally absent.

Did this past weekend’s rain help with drought?

No. Technically, it did not. Drought coverage remained unmoved over the last week, with about 95 percent of the area in some sort of drought and over 75 percent in severe drought.

Keep in mind that “drought” itself carries a number of varying definitions. The drought monitor maps like above capture the bulk of the story but not all of the story. Sure, did this past weekend’s rain help matters? Absolutely. But when you’re talking about longer term issues with things like agriculture or water supply or things like that, the story can vary over time and space. Either way, we need more rain. And we’re not gonna get it for a bit.

Today & Saturday

Other than areas of dense fog this morning, perhaps lingering into the afternoon near Galveston, things look pretty quiet today and tomorrow. Expect highs near 80 inland and 70s nearer the coast. Outside of low clouds and fog in the morning, look for hazy conditions with clouds and sun. A few drips or drops are possible with a shower or two in area. Cedar pollen remains high, so you may be sneezy.

A cold front is going to advance through the area on Saturday evening, wiping out the haze and fog. It will also wipe out the warmth and humidity. Look for gusty winds Saturday evening, with gusts up to 30 mph inland for a short time and gusts up to 35 mph or so on the Island. The front itself should have little to no fanfare, as it will be mostly a dry front.

Sunday

Temperatures will drop off Saturday night, bottoming out in the 40s over much of the area by Sunday morning.

The breeze should remain all day but it will lower in intensity somewhat. We should see a return to sunshine, dry air, cool air, and low humidity. Look for highs in the 60s on Sunday.

Early next week

The early week will be “post-frontal pleasant” with lows in the 30s and 40s and highs in the 60s, perhaps near 70 by Tuesday. Skies should be sunny.

Later next week

It’s possible that another weak front passes through the area on Wednesday or Thursday, which could usher in another round of gusty winds and lower humidity. Before that, highs will peak back near 80 degrees or so.

Unfortunately, our rain chances over the next 10 days are minimal. Enjoy the generally nice weather, but let’s hope for rain again sooner than later.