Matt Lanza

Today was supposed to be just a stunning day. Ultimately, it will be, but thanks to some controlled burns in southwest Louisiana it’s starting off poorly. I didn’t intend to start with a science lesson this morning, but here we are.

Why is the air quality bad this morning?

In a nutshell: There’s smoke trapped near the ground leading to poor air quality. It will improve later this morning. If you want the rest of the forecast, scroll down. If you want to understand why there’s smoke this morning, read on.

Air quality this morning is abysmal, in the unhealthy for sensitive groups or even a bit worse.

Why? Yesterday afternoon, there were several controlled burns noted on radar in southwest Louisiana.

Because our low-level winds are coming from the east and we have an inversion in place (more on that below), that smoke cannot escape into the upper atmosphere and disperse, so it stays at ground level. I ran a backwards trajectory model (called HYSPLIT) starting at 3 PM on Tuesday and ending at 7 AM this morning. In simple terms: I wanted to see where the air we have now came from yesterday afternoon. On the map below, Houston is the black star and the red line indicates where the air came from. The plot below shows how high up in the atmosphere it came from. You can see that the air down near the surface this morning originated from northeast Louisiana, descending to only a few hundred feet above ground level in southwest Louisiana and ending up over Houston this morning.

All that smoke is “trapped” under an atmospheric inversion. Normally, you hear us talking about a “capping inversion,” or just cap during days where severe weather is possible. The “cap” basically puts a lid on how tall clouds can grow. It’s the same concept here, except the inversion is close to ground level. In other words, what ends up near the surface stays near the surface instead of being able to escape into the higher atmosphere.

As temperatures warm up after sunrise, that inversion will dissipate, and the smoke will dissipate with it, leading to a much nicer setup by late morning.

Today (rest of the forecast)

Sunny. Once the smoke clears, it’ll be great. Low-70s. Modest, relatively low humidity for Houston. Tough to argue that. If you want something to complain about today besides smoke, look to the wind. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph will be possible, especially along the coast, so that may annoy some people. Tough to argue that also.

One thing I want to briefly highlight today in concert with our friends at the NWS Houston office are rip currents. Many of you may be in Galveston or other coastal locales for spring break. Please, please use caution if you head into the water.

Rip currents can catch even the most experienced swimmers off-guard, so please emphasize safety over the next couple days.

Meanwhile, at the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo, you’re in luck. Again. If you’ll be heading to see Kenny Chesney tonight, you can expect around 70 degrees on your way in, with temperatures only falling a bit during the show. Look for no worse than mid-60s on your way home. That breeze will continue a bit as well.

Thursday

Tomorrow poses some forecast challenges. The morning looks fine. We’ll have a good bit of cloud cover around, but no real issues are expected. Temperatures will probably bottom out before sunrise, warming through the 60s and into the 70s by mid-morning. During the afternoon, we’ll likely be in a favorable spot for showers and thunderstorms to develop well out ahead of Friday’s cold front.

What does that mean for us? Well, there is a bit of a cap (see the smoke section above if you don’t know what that means) still in place tomorrow, so that will limit our severe chances a bit, especially south of I-10. To the north, less capping means a better chance that storms can fire up tomorrow afternoon. Any storm that can get going tomorrow has a chance to become strong to severe with strong winds, hail, or even a brief tornado possible. Again, the highest odds of this occurring will be north of the Houston area but close enough to keep an eye on things.

In addition to storms, it will be another breezy day tomorrow, even more than we see today. Look for onshore winds of 20 to 30 mph through much of Thursday afternoon.

Thursday night and Friday

Once Thursday afternoon’s storms exit, we’ll await the front. That is likely to push through between midnight and sunrise on Friday. During Thursday evening, we’ll likely have some showers around. But around midnight or a bit after, a squall line of heavy rain and thunderstorms will push through. You can never entirely rule out a severe storm with those, thought our main issues will be lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds I think. More on this tomorrow.

Friday itself will be much cooler and continued breezy, with northerly, offshore winds of 20 to 25 mph and temperatures generally holding in the 50s from predawn through most of, if not all of the day.

Total rainfall from our front and storm system looks to be about an inch or less for most, but it will vary with higher amounts north and lower amounts south.

Weekend

So, this weekend looks intriguing. In terms of weather impacts, it looks minimal: It’s going to be mostly cloudy, chilly, and breezy most of the weekend. Expect lows in the 30s and 40s and highs in the 50s both days. If that’s all you need, skip ahead. Otherwise…

Meteorology geek-out: I am interested though to see if we can’t squeeze some showers out the passing rising air over our area, especially on Sunday. We’ve got some leftover “noise” and a stronger than normal jet stream in the upper atmosphere in the wake of Friday’s front. If we can produce enough lift in the atmosphere, we may be able to start squeezing out some precipitation. Given how cold it is aloft (temperatures at 5,000 feet over our heads will be running 20 degrees colder than normal) and how dry the air is, it’s entirely possible that we see ice pellets falling in any better organized showers on Saturday or Sunday, even with temperatures in the 40s or 50s. We’ll speculate more on that tomorrow or Friday.

Early next week

It would appear that we get one more reinforcing shot of cold air via another storm and front on Monday. Modeling has been indicating that in parts of interior Texas, even some snow or sleet could mix in with the rain. Again, we’ll cover that more later this week should it become more of an issue. But that’s probably not for the Houston area. Just expect a dreary, chilly Monday, followed by a milder and more pleasant Tuesday. We have a shot at 80 degree weather again by Thursday.

Yesterday ended up being an absolutely spectacular day for most of the area, except perhaps southwest of Galveston, which hung on to clouds. We maxed out at 71° officially at Bush Airport, making Monday our coolest day since February 18th! Today will be even cooler, as we battle some cloud cover. And we’re still watching a pretty good chance of some very cool air this weekend.

Today

For Houston proper, today looks like a decent day. About 20,000 feet up today, a weak disturbance is going to cross the northern half of Texas, rotating around the base of a trough that’s helping supply a major snowstorm for the interior Northeast.

That disturbance won’t do much more than give us a few extra clouds and slightly cooler temperatures today, especially north of Houston. Based on morning satellite imagery, I’m not super impressed by the cloud cover this morning, so the day should start decent at the least. Highs will peak in the lower half of the 60s north of Houston and the upper half of the 60s south of Houston. We could do 70 or so from about Sugar Land south and west or anywhere that avoids clouds. The best chance for a shower or some sprinkles would be along or north of Highway 105, but we are probably talking meager stuff overall.

Bring a light JKT if you’re checking out MGK tonight at the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo. Mid-60s or so walking in and near 60 as you head home. No weather woes again.

Wednesday

Between our current weather and the stronger onshore flow ahead of our next front, we get Wednesday, which looks just sublime. Chamber of commerce type weather, with sunshine, morning lows in the 50s and upper-40s (near 60 at the coast), then just mild and pleasant with low to mid-70s and Goldilocks humidity levels…not too dry, not too humid. Enjoy!

Thursday & Friday

On Thursday, you’ll notice the onshore flow increasing. Humidity will be going up, there will be more clouds, and we’ll likely see temperatures quite mild in the morning (60s), warming into the 70s to near 80° again on Thursday afternoon. A few showers or a thunderstorm are possible on Thursday, especially to the north and west of Houston.

The primary cold front that will be impacting us comes through Friday morning. Ahead of it, expect showers and thunderstorms to be likely. While locally heavy rain and locally strong storms are possible, we aren’t expecting any serious or widespread severe weather at this time. It could get a bit noisy late Thursday night and Friday morning though. We’ll continue to keep an eye on this in case things change.

The big question on Friday is how much clearing we see. I think we’ll remain cloudy into early afternoon right now, but then possibly filter in some sunshine from northwest to southeast before day’s end. Friday’s high temperature will probably occur around or just after midnight, near 70 degrees, falling into the mid-50s by morning. Maybe we can warm to near 60 degrees Friday afternoon, but that would be quite optimistic.

One thing you’ll also notice Thursday and Friday? The wind. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph are likely across the area, with stronger winds possible over the water.

Weekend

Perhaps this will be our final real winter-like weekend of the season. Temperatures should bottom out in the 40s on Saturday morning, with some 30s possible north and west. We do not expect freezing temperatures, however. During the day, however, it will feel very un-March like. Our average high this time of year is up to the mid-70s. We may struggle to get into the mid-50s on Saturday with a lot of clouds and maybe a few pockets of light rain or drizzle.

Sunday will only be marginally warmer with morning lows again in the 40s mostly, daytime highs in the 50s, and a mix of clouds and sun. Another system is pegged for Monday before we warm up a good bit next week. More on all that tomorrow and Thursday.

Happy Monday, y’all! We tacked on two more 80 degree days over the weekend, bringing our 2023 total to 18, tying us with 1974, 2000, and 2017 for the second most to start a year. The pace of this early spring warmth is really going to begin to slow down, however. You may have felt the change a bit yesterday afternoon once the cooler air behind the front settled in, along with the breeze. You’ll be feeling more of that in the future.

Today

All is calm behind yesterday’s front. Temperatures cooled off late yesterday, and this morning, we’re running about 15 to 20 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago.

Today will be a mixed day with clouds and sun, with probably more of clouds than sun this morning and hopefully more sun than clouds this afternoon. A shower is possible in the Matagorda Bay area. The breeze that kicked up on Sunday afternoon will relent some today, easing up to about 10 to 15 mph or so a bit later, though maybe still a bit gusty over the water. With enough sun, we should manage 70 or so in most of the area, though places north of The Woodlands, west of Katy, and up in the Brazos Valley may generally stay in the 60s.

It’s Cody Jinks debut night tonight at the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo. Depending on your personal preference, you may need a light jacket. You’ll get quiet weather at least. Temperatures will be in the upper 60s on your way in and low 60s on your way out. Keep the fair weather coming please.

Tuesday

Look for a mix of clouds and some sun tomorrow. As the Northeast gets walloped with what I think is their biggest winter storm of the season, we’ll get clipped by a weak disturbance. I wouldn’t say that showers are likely tomorrow, as the air mass overhead is still pretty dry in the wake of yesterday’s front. Just don’t be shocked to see some raindrops. But I wouldn’t alter outdoor plans. Temperatures will probably struggle a bit, with morning lows in the 50s and daytime highs mainly in the 60s, perhaps 70 or so southwest of Houston.

Wednesday

No trouble here. Wednesday will be arguably the nicest day of the week, with plenty of sun expected, morning lows in the 50s, and highs in the low-70s, along with comfy humidity.

End of the week

If you have not solidified your plans for the week and want to play the weather for outdoors-y activities, keep a close eye on Thursday and Friday. While most of Thursday may end up being fine, there’s still a decent chance at some showers or thunderstorms by late in the day, especially north and west of Houston. Friday looks even dicier with a period of showers and storms likely as a pretty strong cold front pushes in.

Some of the storms late Thursday and Friday could be on the stronger side, but the highest odds of severe weather and heavier rainfall are north of our area. Still, we’ll watch this through the week to see how it evolves.

Temperatures will surge on Thursday, perhaps approaching 80 degrees again before Friday’s front cuts things down heading into the weekend. As advertised, it does appear we are heading into a period of much cooler weather for the weekend into early next week. In fact, high temperatures on Saturday may not even reach 60 degrees!

We will probably warm up again into mid or late next week, but the amplitude and duration of that warming will probably be somewhat less intense than we’ve had so far this early spring.

Good morning. Today’s pollen update: Uggghhhh.

Houston is off to one of its warmest starts to a year since records began here back in the late 1800s. In terms of 80 degree days, if you think we’ve had a few more than usual, you’d be correct. We average four of them through March 10th. We’ve already had 17, and today has at least a chance to make it 18, which would be tied for the second most since 1888. 1911 had 22 80 degree days at this point, and 2000 also had 18 of them. Either way, we’re off to the races this year.

We will probably pause things a bit after next week.

We should see one front on Sunday or Monday that knocks us back temporarily, followed up with a second front on Friday or so next week that will have a bit more “oomph” to it, allowing for this cooler weather beyond St. Patrick’s Day. Again, the fast, early start to spring this year doesn’t necessarily mean much of anything heading into April, May, or summer.

Today

The challenge today? Temperatures. With a cool front nudging into the Houston area today, we can expect a bit of a difference from north to south. If you’re driving from Conroe to NASA later today, you may experience a season and a half’s worth of weather.

A passing shower or downpour will be possible this morning, with a mixed but probably dry afternoon; decreasing clouds overall. Temperatures will likely range from near 80 degrees in Houston and south of I-10 to the 70s on the north side of Houston to the 60s or near 70 degrees farther north of Montgomery County and up toward College Station.

Saturday

Let’s call tomorrow a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures back in the low to mid-80s in most of the area with the exception of the very far north and immediate coast. Morning lows should range from the upper-50s well north and west of Greater Houston to the upper 60s at the coast. Outdoor plans look good to go, but watch for some wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph at times.

Sunday

We have seen a couple changes for Sunday’s forecast today. Namely, the timing of the front, which looks about 6 hours or so faster than it did yesterday. That will have an impact on temperatures Sunday, with an earlier front perhaps taking a little of the edge off Sunday’s highs. The early morning will be in the 70s and humid. Depending on the exact timing of the front, we may cool off further after sunrise (which will be an hour later by the way…change those clocks Saturday night!) and then warm into the low-80s. If the front does arrive more slowly, we could do mid or even upper-80s. Either way, the humidity will trend lower and more comfortable through the day. We’ll continue with some gusty winds, but they’ll flip around and be out of the north instead of onshore like Saturday.

It’s always a big weekend at the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, and this weekend you’ve got pretty good weather to go with it. Whether you’re seeing The Chainsmokers, Turnpike Troubadours, or La Fiera De Ojinaga you shouldn’t have too much trouble at all.

Friday evening: Mid-70s walking in, 70 or so walking out. Fair.

Saturday: Low or mid-80s walking in, mid-70s walking out. Breezy and quite humid!

Sunday: Low-80s walking in, mid to upper 60s walking out. Less humid and still a bit breezy.

Early next week

Depending on your perspective, we’ve got some decent weather to start next week. We will manage clouds and sun Monday and hopefully more sun than clouds on Tuesday. Look for highs around 70 and morning lows in the 50s, if not 40s in some spots.

Late next week

The process of a warm up will begin on Wednesday and peak on Thursday. We have a shot at another 80 degree day by then. But then on Friday it appears one of the stronger cold fronts we’ve seen in a few weeks will push through with showers and scattered thunderstorms. That should knock temperatures back into the 60s for highs next weekend, with lows in the 40s. Spring breakers, y’all get a little bit of everything!

Bye La Niña

Yesterday, NOAA officially declared the end of our multi-year La Niña event. As a refresher: La Niña is a periodic cooling of the ocean water in the Equatorial Pacific. When that water turns warmer than usual, we call that El Niño and dress up as the late, great Chris Farley if you’re a student of the 90s. All of this is part of something called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Usually events last a year, maybe two. This La Niña was a triple dipper, lasting for three winters.

That has likely contributed to the long-term drought that’s been battering Texas reservoir levels, groundwater, and agriculture the last couple years. Typically, La Niñas produce drier than normal weather across the Southern Plains.

So what does this change mean for Houston going forward? Nothing yet. This was not unexpected. We’re now in what we call an “ENSO neutral” phase, which is neither La Niña or El Niño. These events are not like a switch that flips and produces instant change. What the change could mean is that we gradually see more rainfall in Texas in the months ahead. Whether that’s in April, June, next fall, who knows? Usually, hurricane seasons are somewhat muted during El Niño summers, as stronger westerly winds increase wind shear in the Caribbean and Atlantic basin. But while El Niño is a possibility a few months down the road, it is not a guarantee. And besides that, not all ENSO events behave similarly. For example, La Niña events usually produce above average rain and snow in the Pacific Northwest and below average rain and snow in California. This year, California is on pace to end up with one of their most exceptional wet seasons in recorded history, and the Pacific Northwest has seen average or below average precipitation. So, while we have a couple theories of what may happen, we will have to watch the evolution of the Pacific waters to get a sense of where we may actually be going in the coming months.