Matt Lanza

After starting off nice yesterday, clouds did creep back for the afternoon. Most of that has cleared or is off to our east now. But we’ll fight the cloud cover forecast a bit again today. Hey, if clouds are the hardest part of our forecast, we’ll take that.

Meanwhile, just a quick reminder that our annual fundraiser is ongoing. We have a merch shop open for a limited time, or if you just want to donate to the site, you can do that too. We sincerely appreciate all the support!

Today

Clouds are going to linger this morning east of Chambers County, especially in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area. These are stubborn low clouds that are a little more difficult to eradicate in mid-November, but hopefully some sunny breaks can emerge in those areas today.

Some model guidance does nudge those clouds back west a bit, so places like Baytown or Mont Belvieu run the risk of seeing some clouds perhaps for a time later today. But overall, let’s call today mainly sunny with highs in the low-70s.

Thursday & Friday

Both days look partly to mostly sunny and calm. We should see warming conditions with highs in the mid-70s tomorrow and upper-70s perhaps on Friday. Morning lows stay in the 50s. There could be a little patchy fog on either morning, but that should lift rather quickly after sunrise.

Saturday

A weak “cool” front will swing through late Friday or early Saturday. You probably won’t notice it at all, but it will act to sort of reinforce this autumn air mass a bit. We’ll top off in the mid-70s, with morning lows again in the 50s. Expect a mix of sun and clouds.

Sunday & Monday

Clouds increase on Sunday, and we should see at least some scattered showers return to the picture by later in the afternoon or evening. Highs will be in the mid-70s, but they could be slightly warmer if clouds arrive slower Sunday afternoon.

A cold front will swing through Sunday night or Monday morning sometime it appears, which is a bit faster than it appeared yesterday. With it, showers appear likely, but rain totals should lag what we just saw recently in the area. Expect a cooler day on Monday, with low to mid-70s, although at some point, temperatures could drop 10 degrees or so, depending on the exact timing of the front.

Tuesday through Thanksgiving

Behind that cold front, we’ll have a bonafide cool day on Tuesday, with highs probably in the low-60s at best and morning lows in the low to mid-50s. Wednesday morning should see 40s for lows, as could Thanksgiving morning. Highs should be in the 60s both days. The forecast appears to be dry for both Wednesday travel and Thursday festivities. We’ll keep an eye on things, however, just in case. Warmer temps should follow into Black Friday and the weekend.

We topped out at 87 yesterday at Bush Airport, about 12 degrees above normal for the date. We have one more fairly hot day, two more real soupy days, and then the weather pattern for Southeast Texas should change beginning late Thursday or Friday. We abruptly shift into a cool and rather unsettled pattern heading into next week.

Today

Look for basically a repeat of what we experienced yesterday. Highs will be in the mid to upper-80s with a fair bit of humidity. We should see a good deal of sun with some passing clouds at times. Southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph and some gusts will be with us as well.

Thursday

Consider Thursday the start of the transition. It will again be warm and humid, with morning lows in the 60s, but we will see a good bit more cloud cover by Thursday mid-morning or afternoon. Coverage of showers with the approaching cold front should begin to increase Thursday afternoon, especially off to the north and west of Houston. Normally I would say the rain may arrive quicker, but with a lack of any Arctic air push behind this front, I would expect just a gradual increase in rain coverage from northwest to southeast through the latter half of the day. Basically, if you have Thursday afternoon plans, include an umbrella. Highs should be in the 80s but a couple degrees less warm than today.

Friday

A gray day. We are expecting periods of showers with some steadier rain possible at times. It will be noticeably cooler with temperatures generally holding in the 60s all day and perhaps a slow drop toward evening. Not exactly cold, but certainly cool. The cold front will push offshore and likely stall somewhere. That front will act as a focal point for disturbances in the coming days, so where it parks is important for rain chances.

Weekend and beyond

I’ll preface this by saying there is a high degree of uncertainty in the exact day to day weather between Saturday and Tuesday or Wednesday. We have several systems to watch that will be capable of delivering periods of rain. I would expect a showery, if not rainy Saturday, especially south of I-10. Our highest confidence is that Saturday may be a fairly damp day for Houston and points south.

Sunday could see breaks of sun north and clouds and showers south. Monday should see more clouds than sun with a rain chance. Tuesday would see clearing, followed by a quiet Wednesday and Thursday. But as I said, there is very little confidence in the specifics here.

Specifics, details, and more are a long way from being settled, but there is the potential for several inches of rain over the course of the next week, especially south of Houston. The best chance for this may be around Corpus Christi and up through Matagorda Bay to Freeport and Lake Jackson, with diminishing rain chances as you go north. But much will depend on exactly what happens with Thursday’s front, where it stalls out, and what it does into next week.

One thing we’re fairly confident in is that temperatures will remain cool due to this pattern. Look for highs in the 60s this weekend and early next week, warming into the 70s by late week. Morning lows will generally be in the 50s. We will have more on Thursday!

After lows in the 30s across many spots yesterday morning, we’re waking up a touch less cold today. Some clouds in the region and a return to onshore winds have ensured we begin the transition back to something less winter-like and more autumn-like for a few days.

Rain will be at a premium over the next week or so, with our best rain chances probably holding off until next Thursday or so ahead of what should be our next cool front.

Today and the weekend

So if you have any plans this weekend, we don’t expect any real complications to impact you weather-wise. Look for highs in the mid-70s today and upper-70s to around 80 or so on Saturday and Sunday. Morning lows will be in the 50s tomorrow and probably close to 60 or so on Sunday. Winds look fairly light. We may see a little additional cloud cover Saturday and especially Sunday, but no rain is currently expected.

Monday and Tuesday

We’ll transition back more to an early autumn type pattern here with highs in the 80s and partly sunny skies. Morning lows will also bulk up into the 60s. Rain chances remain fairly low, though a couple isolated showers or sprinkles cannot be ruled out. Weather should not impede voting on Tuesday.

Mid to late week

Wednesday is going to be very warm and very humid. Look for morning lows well into the 60s and daytime highs well into the 80s. Can we print out a rogue 90 degree day? I would give it about a 15 percent chance. We’re more likely to hit 86 to 88, but you definitely cannot rule out 90 entirely. Houston has never recorded a 90 degree day in November, so this would be decidedly abnormal. We’ll see.

A cold front will likely end the hotter weather by Thursday or Friday, with highs backpedaling into the 70s and lows in the 50s. There’s a bit of uncertainty beyond the front regarding whether we clear out entirely or see lingering clouds and rain chances. But it will turn cooler. More Monday!

All is quiet across the area this morning, but yesterday definitely saw some heavy rain north and west of Houston, as a relatively persistent area of rainfall setup shop. This dumped as much as 3 to 6 inches over a fairly wide area northwest of Houston.

Much of the area at least saw some rain yesterday. We should at least see some more rain today, perhaps in those same areas.

Today

Look for another day of sporadic showers and thunderstorms across the area. Again, the best odds favor areas north and west of Houston for the most rain today, but rain could fall south and east as well, much like we saw on Thursday. It will remain warm and humid with highs well into the 80s.

Weekend

Both Saturday and Sunday will continue to provide warm and humid weather for the area. We’ll see lows in the 70s and highs in the mid-80s on both days. Showers will be possible, but I think the coverage and intensity will ramp down some from what we saw yesterday and what we will see today.

Monday

Alright, the latest the timing on Monday’s cold front brings it through Houston just after midnight, which will lead to plunging temperatures well before sunrise on Monday. In the afternoon, we will struggle to get past the upper-50s with a gusty north wind ramping up. If you have loose Halloween decorations, it’s probably a good idea to try to secure them as best as possible on Sunday afternoon. Anyway, there will be showers or some thunderstorms with the front as it pushes in, and clouds, light rain, and drizzle may persist for awhile through the day.

Tuesday

Look for lows in the 40s on Tuesday morning. Expect a breezy to windy day, especially near the coast, where winds of 20 to 30 mph or stronger are likely. We will see a good bit of cloud cover lingering on Tuesday, and that may keep temperatures in the 40s for much of the morning before some afternoon clearing allows us to warm into the 50s. For Houston, our coolest Halloween afternoon occurred in 1925 when we only hit 47 degrees. More recently, back in 2019 we only mustered 57 degrees, the 4th coolest on record. We may fall just short of that on Tuesday. The record low for Halloween is safe at 29 degrees back in 1993. For evening festivities, look for temperatures nudging back into the upper-40s or near 50 degrees with continued breezy conditions. Bundle up, kids!

Rest of next week

The rest of the week looks great. Expect sunshine Wednesday through Friday with temperatures slowly nudging back warmer. We should be in the upper-50s to near 60 on Wednesday, mid-60s on Thursday, and low-70s on Friday with morning lows in the 40s or upper-30s all three days. Sublime autumn weather in my opinion! We will probably hear about frost advisories at some point well to the north of Houston, particularly between Lufkin, Madisonville, and College Station. Even an isolated sheltered location or two up that way has a chance at a light freeze also. But this is highly unlikely in the Houston metro.