Matt Lanza

Happy Sunday to you. Eric and I wanted to offer a quick update on the weather for ALCS game 4 in New York, the potential clincher. Additionally, we have some more clarity on our rain chances here in Houston for tomorrow.

Astros weather

In a perfect world, the Yankees would simply close the roof for game 4 tonight, and we’d play ball without any weather concerns. It would surely give them a bit less to complain about. Alas, the world is not perfect. You don’t need to be a meteorologist to look at the water vapor satellite image below and see that there’s a lot of something aimed at New York City.

As it turns out, it’s a deep plume of subtropical moisture that is aimed right at New York and New England and extends back to the Caribbean. In English, this means rain is likely in the Bronx today. The first pitch tonight is just after 7 PM Eastern time. The latest HRRR model forecast radar shows rain still in the area at this time.

Will it be raining enough in New York City at the planned start time to mess things up? No model is perfect, but a few have shown this outcome, so I am becoming more and more pessimistic that we’ll get a game in without some kind of scheduling issue today. Obviously, this is a problem because there are no off-days for the rest of the series. But that’s Major League Baseball’s problem to deal with. Our message is: If you have the brooms out tonight, there is at least some chance they may need to stand by until very late or tomorrow.

If the game does somehow on as planned tonight, you can expect temperatures in the 50s and a northeast wind (which at Yankee Stadium is blowing in) around 10 mph. Additionally, you’d almost certainly have intermittent showers, light rain, or drizzle. Philly will have similar issues today as well. So if you’re scouting the other side, you may have some issues there too. Tuesday’s weather won’t be perfect, but it looks better if they need to slide things a day.

Houston weather

Locally, we have no issues for Sunday so if you have an Astros watch party planned you might just have to find other ways to entertain yourselves. We will have a few extra clouds today, as some of the high clouds from Pacific hurricane Roslyn head this way. Otherwise, it will be warm and humid with 80s. Much like yesterday, there will be a healthy breeze off the Gulf today, gusting to 20 to 25 mph, possibly a bit more over the water. A shower is possible south of I-10 today, but it would likely be light and brief…maybe just enough to wet the ground.

Our cold front begins to arrive later tomorrow. Ahead of it, look for more clouds, a few isolated sprinkles or showers, and yes, more wind. Other than that, daytime Monday looks fine.

Monday night is when things get interesting. The good news is that Hurricane Roslyn will get shredded over Mexico. So, we don’t need to worry about that. But the remnant moisture and some of the “oomph” from Roslyn is going to interact with the cold front as it moves through Houston. This should allow for a developing, if not strengthening line of storms to push in Monday night with the front.

As the storms move in, there is at least some chance they could become strong to severe, with gusty winds being the main threat. This would, again, be late in the evening, if not after midnight. Eric will have the latest for you on Monday morning regarding any severe weather risk. Most of the area, especially north of I-10 should see a quarter to half-inch of rain, with isolated higher amounts possible. Helpful, but it won’t do much for the drought.

Tuesday should be much cooler and windy. It will feel like autumn again. More from Eric in the morning!

Yesterday was just glorious. Definitely a top 10 day. And the Astros won with the roof open. Today will be fairly nice, albeit a bit warmer and just a tinge more humid. Look for humidity to increase a bit further this weekend before we get involved in a little mischief and hopefully some meaningful rain chances next week.

Today

More of the same from the last couple days; just add about 5 degrees or so. Look for ample sunshine and slowly increasing humidity. We’ll top off generally in the mid-80s, with a few spots a little hotter.

Weekend

Both Saturday and Sunday look predominantly dry, so if you have outdoor plans, you should be fine. I mean, I guess a sprinkle or shower is possible on Sunday, but I won’t belabor the point. Look for sunny skies Saturday with a few more clouds on Sunday. Temperatures should be in the mid to upper-80s.

If you want to complain about something other than hotter temps, perhaps the wind may draw your ire this weekend. We expect southerly winds sustained around 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up over 25 mph at times, especially over the water or at night in far inland locations. It will be the strongest onshore wind we’ve had since possibly springtime.

Monday and Tuesday

Our first attempt at mischief comes later Monday and Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. There are still questions as to how much moisture this front will have, but at the very least there’s a notable chance for a period of showers, possibly some heavy ones, Monday night or Tuesday. I wouldn’t get my hopes up for major drought relief, but we’re hopeful for some meaningful rain at least. I’m not sure how your backyard is doing, but I have only seen a quarter-inch in mine over the last 45 days. Any rain is better than none.

It will be a warm and humid Monday with decreasing humidity later Tuesday. We should manage the 80s on Monday, with morning lows in the 70s. Tuesday will be a bit cooler with 70s from morning into afternoon.

Later next week through Halloween

After a couple cool days Wednesday into Thursday (AM lows in the 50s), we’ll probably get another surge of humidity on Friday before a cold front wipes it out late or into Saturday. Again, the big question swirls around how much rain we’ll actually see. Much like with Tuesday, I would remain cautiously optimistic for some helpful rain. That should setup a lovely weekend. The early read on Halloween is probably seasonably pleasant (think maybe 60s at Trick or Treat time), but we’ll check in on that more next week.

The Astros weren’t the only winners on Thursday. Some folks saw actual rain yesterday too. The jackpot winners came in about three different areas: Dickinson in Galveston County, Fresno and Sienna Plantation, and just south of Sealy. There were a few other spots south and west of the Houston area that did okay as well.

The highest measured totals I could find were near Dickinson (3.16″), Southfork (2.04″), and La Porte (1.96″). Yesterday’s Drought Monitor update underscored our need for rain, as drought coverage expanded by another 12 percent in the Houston region.

The good news is that we have more rain chances coming. The bad news is that these will likely do little to alleviate the underlying problem.

Today

All in all, today should be decent, albeit hot. The front has cleared most of the area, and we have slightly lower humidity in place now, but that drier air with sunshine will allow temperatures to efficiently heat up. Someone should hit 90 degrees today, but most of us will top out in the mid to upper-80s. A shower can’t be completely ruled out south of the city toward Matagorda Bay.

Weekend

Saturday looks to be a fairly uneventful day with sun, clouds, warm and more humid air, and just a very, very slight shower chance. Temperatures will warm from the 60s into the upper-80s to near 90 degrees or better in spots.

Sunday looks a little bit more interesting in terms of rain chances. I think most of us will see no rain, but there will be some neighborhoods that will host a shower or storm on Sunday. We’ll go from near 70 in the morning into the mid-80s, if not upper-80s by afternoon. I’d expect the shower chances and some additional clouds to hold temperatures down a degree or two relative to Saturday though.

Monday

Alright, our much ballyhooed front is still expected to arrive here in Houston on Monday. It’s still a bit too early to get too cute on timing, but I would expect the best chance of storms later in the day or evening, followed by gradual clearing late Monday night or early Tuesday. Clouds, showers, and the front should combine to keep our temperatures from warming much beyond the upper-70s on Monday.

Rain totals are likely to vary, and because of the relatively progressive nature of the front, we will probably see a half-inch to three-quarters of an inch or less in most areas. This will certainly help take the edge off a bit given recent dryness, but it will do little to actually dent the burgeoning drought in our area.

Rest of next week

The Tuesday through Thursday period next week is being delivered by Yordan Álvarez, because it’s a home run. Expect three days of sunshine, low humidity, and cool, crisp autumn air. Highs will be in the low-70s, cooler perhaps on Wednesday and warmer on Thursday. Morning lows? Yeah, we have a shot at 40s.

Expect 50s area-wide next Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday mornings. Much of the area will probably be in the 40s on Wednesday and Thursday morning. Beyond that, we’re probably looking at a warm up next weekend into the week of the 24th. More on that next week.

Since September 1st, Houston has registered a mere three-quarters of an inch of rain, which is the driest start to meteorological fall (September-November) since 1953 (0.47″). More recently, 1992 only saw 1.08″ and the drought-ridden 2011 only saw 1.28″ of rain in that same time period. It’s the fifth driest start to autumn on record.

As you’d expect, with yesterday’s drought monitor update, coverage of drought conditions in the Houston area increased by over 30 percent week over week. We need rain. October is normally our second wettest month of the year (trailing only July). We average over 5 inches of rain in a typical October. Hopefully we are able to cash in on some rain chances next week. Otherwise, watch for drought coverage to expand even more in the days ahead.

Today

No rain in the meantime. Houston officially hit 90 degrees on Thursday, and we’ll feel a touch hotter today. Look for low 90s and a bit of humidity. Clouds will mix with some sun and haze otherwise. Pollen remains painfully high due to ragweed, and air quality will remain on the poor side in the morning via smog and in the late day via ground ozone.

Weekend

Saturday looks fairly similar to Friday in most aspects. Morning lows may be a touch warmer due to clouds. Daytime high temperatures may be a couple degrees cooler, but we’ll see a good deal of sunshine emerge. Subtly, a weak front, which crosses the area later Friday, will start to usher in a reinforcing shot of dry air for the weekend days. We should notice a slightly more pleasant morning on Sunday with lower humidity during the day, despite highs in the still in the mid or upper-80s.

Aside from it being a bit warmer than usual, all weekend plans should be fine.

Early next week

Monday looks a lot like Sunday and Tuesday a lot like Friday. Does that make sense? Still pleasant but warm Monday and then warmer and a little more humid on Tuesday.

Mid to late next week

On Wednesday, it appears we actually get a legitimately strong surge of humidity into the area, which will make it feel more like late summer. Wednesday and Thursday seem unlikely candidates for “comfortable” weather. Look for upper-80s by day and 70s by night. Beyond that, there are questions as to the timing and strength of a cold front and how much moisture it will offer. That will determine the extent of our rain chances for next week. While I’m hopeful for some rain, this is not likely to be the drought-denter we are looking for.

Tropics

Here in Houston, we have no concerns. We have gotten some questions about the Caribbean disturbance, which is now Tropical Depression 13. The official forecast for TD 13 brings it due west across the Caribbean into Central America, specifically Nicaragua by the end of the weekend as a hurricane.

Thankfully, this is moving quickly and is abnormally far south, so hopefully that limits its intensity upside and subsequent impacts to Central America. But for those of you traveling to Cancun or Cozumel this weekend, you’ll be fine. Those of you with interests in other Central American nations will want to monitor this storm’s progress. The next name on the list is Julia.