In brief: Houston will continue a string of hot days, but the nighttimes should become a bit more pleasant as well. A cool front on Monday will take care of that for us. Rain chances this weekend are mainly at the coast and mainly just scattered, and no real rain is expected next week. We have no tropical concerns in Texas.
There have only been two somewhat similar times that Houston has been through such a persistently lengthy stretch of hot weather so late in the season: 1904 and 2007. The 1904 stretch ended around October 12th, whereas the 2007 stretch ended on October 4th. So when can we get past this faux fall situation? Maybe soon? Maybe. But honestly, looking at the NWS forecast below, this string of upper 80s or hotter during the day may have another week left in it.
Temperatures as forecast by the NWS over the next week look very hot for October during the day; less warm at night though. (Weather Bell)
The good news in all this is that the nighttimes are running out of punch, and we should see lows in the 60s behind an expected cold front on Monday night or Tuesday. That front will also protect us from any tropical riff-raff in the Gulf of Mexico.
Today and Saturday
We already have a bunch of showers offshore this morning. We may see some of those work their way ashore through the day today. I have to be honest though: Consider yourself lucky if you see any rain.
Total rainfall over the next week will be ample over the Gulf of Mexico but much less over land. (Pivotal Weather)
Tomorrow should play out similarly, though I think the coverage of showers will be just a wee bit higher. Still, for the many fun weekend events we have happening in the Houston area this weekend from the Dash tonight to Southern Smoke to the Komen Race for the Cure, our forecast is that other than perhaps a passing shower or two, conditions look fine. Just stay hydrated, as it will be warm and somewhat humid this weekend.
Sunday
Rain chances will begin to slip slide away on Sunday. Texans tailgating will be a bit muggy but other than maybe a passing shower, it should be fine. We’ll be back into the 90s for highs.
Monday and Tuesday and beyond
We will get one push of drier air late Sunday, followed by another, stronger push of dry air Monday night or Tuesday morning with an actual cold front. This is really going to take a bite out of humidity levels, and it will feel extremely comfortable by the time we get to Tuesday. Even with hot afternoons, it will be a decent stretch of warm days and cooler nights for mid to late next week. But again, no real rain chances.
Tropics
We’ve been covering the tropics extensively over at The Eyewall, and we will continue to do so through the weekend.
While there is a 40% chance of tropical development in the Gulf, it is not a concern for Texas. (NOAA NHC)
There will be a sloppy situation evolving in the Gulf of Mexico over the upcoming week where tropical development is possible to some extent. But because of our push of dry air to start next week, everything will get pushed east of us toward Florida. If you’re planning a trip to Florida, just keep tuned into the forecasts and maybe prepare for rain through Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Then hopefully things quiet down.
In brief: We are sharing a post we just published on our tropical companion site The Eyewall that talks about the next system expected in the Gulf this coming week. At present, we think it will likely stay east of Texas and is more a concern east of New Orleans to Florida. Still, we’ll watch it to be sure. We also have some links for folks that may want to help our neighbors in Appalachia that are dealing with an absolute catastrophe due to Helene.
Our thoughts are with folks impacted by Hurricane Helene. From what I have read and seen and heard about some parts of western North Carolina and Tennessee, it’s really, really bad. Worse than might be known at this point. Speaking as someone from Houston, which was has dealt with floods and then been flooded with resources after storms, these more rural communities are likely to be dealing with this for a long time and will need a *lot* of help in the weeks and months ahead, as the resources and media attention don’t always focus on places like that.
Keep in mind that after catastrophes like this, “stuff” is nice to donate but what is really needed is money. So consider that if you’re looking for ways to help. The United Way of North Carolina has a fund setup specific for Helene. Blue Ridge NPR has a nice list of organizations you can donate to as well. There is also the East Tennessee Foundation for folks there. Please post any other organizations in these areas in the comments.
As of late Sunday morning, there are still about 2.5 million customers without power from Florida to Ohio. This is down from a peak of around 4.5 million. It will take a long time to get to some areas in mountainous and rural western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee though, and some of these locations could be without power for weeks; the damage is just that complete in these areas.
Storm surge is the deadliest aspect of a landfalling hurricane, but inland flooding can dwarf that sometimes. We’ve seen it time and again in the last several years. If you live inland in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, or Northeast, you need to be prepared for hurricanes too.
There will be a lot more to discuss with Helene which we’ll save for another day. But suffice to say we have seen the worst-case scenario play out a lot more often in recent years. And this is going to be a big discussion point going forward both in how forecasts are communicated and how communities prepare for storms. You can’t rely just on the known lessons from past disasters anymore.
Forecast this week
The upper low and remnants of Helene will continue to produce generally light showers across the Midwest and East the next couple days before finally being ushered off to the east later this week. There will be pockets of steadier rain though, particularly in Virginia and West Virginia. Total rainfall over the next 5 days could add up to a couple inches there.
Rainfall through Thursday should be heaviest in Virginia and West Virginia as the broader storm containing Helene’s remnants slowly exits. (Pivotal Weather)
Localized flash flooding is possible today and tomorrow in the mountains there or Shenandoah Valley. These areas were not as severely impacts as areas to the south, but they remain vulnerable to localized flash flooding impacts.
Gulf & Caribbean: Something to watch
So what comes next? Unfortunately, the NHC now has a 50 percent chance of development somewhere between the Gulf and northwest Caribbean over the next 7 days.
A disturbance emerging from a Central American gyre type setup will carry a 50 percent chance of development this week in the Gulf or Caribbean. (NOAA NHC)
For our many readers in Texas, at this point, I would not expect this disturbance to come this far north and west. It will take at least the next 3 to 4 days to develop, and by the time it matures enough, it appears a cold front is headed toward the Gulf that will likely carry this back to the north and east. What this means for places from New Orleans through Florida is still a bit unclear. Modeling is sort of all over the place. At this point with Helene, we had basically two very distinct camps, one that buried the storm near the Yucatan and another (that got it right) carrying it north and northeast as a stronger storm. For this system, we have a similar sort of mixing of outcomes but there’s not exactly a distinct grouping of camps. In other words, there’s a good deal of uncertainty. The GFS ensembles are mixed, with some favoring a stronger storm headed back toward Florida and another group that ends up weaker. Some modeling doesn’t develop this at all. The ICON and European AI models generally show slower development and slow movement.
The GFS Ensemble from last night has some members carrying this disturbance toward Florida, a handful keeping it buried in the Gulf, and others still that never develop it. (Tropical Tidbits)
Given the uncertainty here, it’s important to continue to monitor this over the next couple days, especially in the eastern Gulf. But I will say that the more mixed nature of things in modeling makes me feel that a Helene redux is unlikely in this scenario. That said, keep watching. Impacts, assuming the system develops would likely occur next weekend.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic: Kirk to come
We currently have two active systems, Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce. Neither are direct threats to land.
Isaac and Joyce are likely headed toward dissipation soon. (NOAA NHC)
Both storms should lose tropical characteristics over the next 3 to 4 days and dissipate. Isaac will become part of a larger storm just north of the British Isles, as is periodically the case with North Atlantic storms.
Meanwhile, there are two additional areas to watch in the eastern Atlantic. First, there is Invest 90L, which looks like it’s ready to go off to the races. This one should turn northwest and north, generally following Joyce.
A busy Atlantic to close September. (College of DuPage)
The next name up is Kirk. Although this one is expected to go out to sea it’s worth keeping a side eye on for the Caribbean and Bermuda at least.
Behind 90L we look to have another disturbance in that cloud cover back off Africa. This is not expected to develop quickly meaning that it could come a bit farther west across the Atlantic. I might say that this one is more concerning in some aspects that what should become Kirk. If this can sneak west enough, it may find its own little environment to get going in. There’s not a ton of model support for this one either way, but interests in the Caribbean should at least keep an eye on it over the next 5 to 7 days as it comes west.
So over the next 7 to 10 days we likely have at least one more Atlantic storm and one more Caribbean or Gulf system. We may get a third storm in the Atlantic toward the end of that time horizon. Getting to (L)eslie or (M)ilton would put us at 12 or 13 storms for the season with a good 3 to 4 weeks of potential to go. Still far short of preseason expectations but somewhat less of an error. We’ll watch everything over the next couple weeks and keep you posted.
In brief: After enduring one of the longest, strongest late season heat waves on record in Houston, we will begin to slowly reduce heat after today and tomorrow. Look for slightly “less hot” weather next week and an opportunity at a weak cool front. We’re also watching the tropics but are not currently too worried about what develops near the Yucatan as it pertains to Houston.
We hit 98 degrees yesterday officially in Houston, our seventh straight day above 95 degrees that began on September 13th. In the history of Houston’s weather records back to the 1880s, a one week stretch above 95 degrees has not ever occurred after September 13th. We had a couple five day stretches back in 2011 and late last September but never a week. If you’re like me and hate September because it only teases and never delivers autumn in any lengthy fashion, then this stretch of weather inspires much loathing. It’s just that it hasn’t been this hot for this long this late in the season before in Houston. We may make a run at an eighth straight day of this today, but the good news is that change is on the horizon.
Today through Sunday
Today and tomorrow should be similar in nature, with highs generally in the mid-90s, give or take, with limited rain chances. We will probably get the same out of Sunday, though it may be a degree or two cooler. It should still be above 90 though. Morning lows should be stable, generally in the mid-70s. If you’re out for a morning walk, it’ll really depend on exactly when you step outside. Either way, it will be quite humid.
Wet bulb globe temperatures are not far from “extreme” heat levels today, but there will be a slow, steady march back to moderate or even just “elevated” levels into next week. (Weather Bell)
Next week
I get the sense that next week is the week we really start to transition to autumn. It won’t be cool and refreshing by any means, but we will see high temperatures shave off a degree or two each day. We’ll start the week on Monday likely in the low-90s and finish the week in the upper-80s. Morning lows will go from the mid-70s Monday to the low-70s by Friday.
Forecast weather map for next Wednesday morning shows a weak cool front pushing through the area. (NOAA WPC)
The Weather Prediction Center’s forecast map for next Wednesday does show a cold front pushing into our area. This won’t be a sudden ultra-refreshing change, but I think this will reinforce this idea of a slow drift back toward “less hot” weather next week. With high humidity early in the week and an approaching front there will be a slight chance of showers each day, especially south and east of Houston. But meaningful rain seems unlikely next week.
Tropics
Odds of tropical development are steady (around 40%) next week in the southwest Gulf or northwest Caribbean. (NOAA NHC)
Yesterday evening I pushed a post out at our companion site, The Eyewall to discuss the latest on the Caribbean disturbance we expect to try to develop next week. In the post, I included a section about Texas and why I don’t believe this one is our storm. Meteorologically, the setup is such that whatever it becomes should move very slowly in the southern Gulf or near the Yucatan for several days before eventually getting scooped up by a trough in the Eastern U.S. and whisked off to the northeast. Overnight modeling did nothing to dispel that thinking on my end, so I’ll refer you to the post yesterday to get a better understanding of why we’re not currently too worried. That said, we’ll keep monitoring things this weekend and have the latest for you on Monday, assuming this remains likely to stay away. We will also update The Eyewall this weekend with more. For those of you with travel plans next weekend in that region, you’ll want to keep tuned in.
In brief: Our first real legitimate autumn cold front will arrive on Saturday, and it should usher in an utterly spectacular fall day on Sunday. This will be followed by a return to a stubborn offshore low pressure system and front to drive up cloud cover and rain chances for next week. We continue to babysit it for tropical development but do not expect it to organize at this time.
The last time Houston had an official low in the 60s, the Astros were 25-33, behind both the Rangers and Mariners in the AL West standings. Despite a rough few days in Cincinnati, the Astros are 10 games above .500 and sitting 4 and a half games up on the Mariners. Our friends in Arlington are 8 games out of the last wild card spot. It’s been awhile. And this weekend, we should get to experience both a much better positioned baseball team than May 31st, as well as the coolest weather since then.
Today
It’s been a wet stretch. Galveston has had nearly 10 inches of rain since late August. Bolivar has seen 15 inches. We’re going to see the rain begin to slow down now, and we will drop the Stage 1 flood alert for the coast today. We may still see some showers today, especially at the coast again but it should be manageable in most cases. Other than that, expect clouds and sun with highs reaching into the middle or upper-80s.
Rainfall over the next couple days should be no more than what is shown on the map above, and many place may even come up a little short of these forecasts. (Pivotal Weather)
Saturday
As the offshore low pressure system that’s flung rain our way begins to migrate eastward tomorrow, the much advertised cold front we’re expecting is en route. This drier push of air will help shut down the moisture feed inland, reducing shower chances to merely a passing chance at the coast tomorrow. There will be a bump in wind tomorrow at the coast, however, and there are small craft advisories and gale watches posted.
Last weekend saw rain, and this weekend will see wind be the issue on the Gulf Coast. (NWS Houston)
The cold front itself will probably push into Houston sometime around early afternoon. I doubt you’ll notice much as it passes. Humidity will gradually drop off later in the afternoon and evening, and that’s when you should really notice a change. The Dynamo game will be great. Temps will peak in the mid-80s after morning lows in the 70s. We may get back into the low 70s and have a midnight minimum temperature on Saturday night.
Morning lows on Sunday will be as crisp as they’ve been since May, with even an outside chance of 50s in rural locations north of The Woodlands and Conroe! (NOAA)
Sunday
Sunday morning should dawn sunny and delightfully pleasant. Lows in the 60s with low humidity, dewpoints in the 50s, and a slight breeze. Even Sunday afternoon will be nice, with highs in the low-80s. If you’re in Indy for the Texans opener, it’ll be in the 40s for morning lows, so any early tailgating may need a jacket up there! Really, just a delightful day. Maybe we can even get the roof open at Minute Maid Sunday night?
Coastal locations will have the trickiest forecast on Sunday. The front should clear the coast, and there should be that push of dry air all the way past Galveston and down to Matagorda Bay. However, there’s always an off-chance that something is being missed in the model guidance and we end up cloudier or a little more humid than expected down that way. Just something to note.
Next week
If you’ve been reading Eric’s posts here this week or my posts at The Eyewall, you know we are still monitoring the potential for tropical development in the Gulf next week. We don’t think anything will formally organize from this, but the Gulf, September, etc. You just have to babysit it.
Regardless of that, it is likely that some type of low pressure and/or stalled front sits off the Texas coast next week, similar to what we’ve been dealing with this week. In that scenario, we will likely see rain chances return as early as Monday and particularly on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday. We could again see locally heavy rain, especially at the coast. And this is without tropical development. If we were to see tropical development, that may actually help keep more rain offshore, as the system would probably track just east of our area. So while our base case forecast will call for no tropical development, it does at least merit mentioning and babysitting on our end. We will keep you posted through the weekend and have more tomorrow or Sunday if necessary. That being said, the rain totals over the next week continue to look rather impressive, so we’ll have to keep an eye on how that unfolds going forward, particularly for saturated coastal locations.
Tropics
Beyond the potential development from the Gulf low next week, there is very little for us to discuss in the tropics as it relates to Houston or anywhere for that matter. The next wave to emerge off Africa heading into next week seems to have a decent chance of developing but also seems as if it will turn northwest rather quickly and stay out at sea. Given the expectations for this season, this is as good as you could ask for on September 6th. Fingers crossed it continues.
