Matt Lanza

In brief: As we approach our typical peak of summer heat, we’ll be seeing an uptick in temperatures through the week. We should see potentially upper-90s to near 100 in spots by late week before some shower chances re-enter the forecast. Even hotter weather is possible next week.

Houston’s summer heat typically peaks between July 29th and August 12th, when our average high temperatures sits at 96° and our average low temperature is 76 degrees. The actual peak date is probably around August 5th. So, we are nearing the top of the mountain, and this week may prove to include our hottest weather of summer.

Today through Wednesday

We will start the week with heat and humidity that slowly builds. Highs will push into the mid and perhaps upper 90s by midweek. Thunderstorm chances, while not quite zero each day are fairly low. Morning lows are likely to be in the upper 70s.

Thursday and Friday

I have a feeling that Thursday may be the hottest day of the week. And if not, then it will probably be Friday.

The National Weather Service’s experimental HeatRisk product puts our area in high risk on both days, with a strong edge to Thursday right now. Either way, expect some of the hottest weather of summer so far this week.

By the time we get to Friday, we may see showers or thunderstorms re-enter the forecast, depending on the track of a tropical wave in the Gulf. No development is expected, but a similar track to last week’s Invest 93L is possible, which could keep most of the rain to our east again — or a somewhat more southerly track could bring higher rain chances to our area by Friday. Something we’ll watch through the week, but the main takeaway here is that, again, no development is expected.

Weekend and beyond

Once that wave passes, we should sort of resume a typical summer pattern of heat, humidity, and slight daily storm chances in the area. It does appear that a very strong ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere is going to establish over the Southern Plains next week.

We may be on the periphery of it enough to get continued shower chances each afternoon, but if this flexes much further, we may see even hotter weather next week, perhaps the hottest of summer. Stay tuned.

In brief: Invest 93L is kaput, and now we will look for some heavier downpours in spots today. Rain chances begin to dwindle on Saturday and Sunday as a hotter, less unsettled pattern establishes over our region for much of next week.

Today

Our best chance of rain will come today. The radar as of early Friday morning shows widespread rain north of Liberty and in Louisiana. Additional, more isolated thunderstorms are popping up along I-10 near Beaumont and on the Bolivar Peninsula.

As we go through today, a lot of that steadier rain north of I-10 will probably dissipate. Even some of the thunderstorms this morning may fizzle. But a new round of scattered thunderstorms is likely this afternoon. For the most part, this will be like any other summer afternoon in Houston. Available atmospheric moisture will be a bit higher than usual though, so just be on the lookout for a downpour or two that could briefly flood streets in some parts of the city. Storms should fade after sunset.

Saturday

There should be a somewhat decent lingering shower chance here, but for the most part, any added moisture from the Invest 93L (RIP) would be exiting. I wouldn’t be floored to see a couple heavier downpours in the area though. Look for highs in the mid-90s.

Sunday through Tuesday

We’ve had very few days this summer that carried virtually zero rain chance. It would appear that Sunday through Tuesday carry good chances for that to be the case, however. Look for mostly sunshine. Another bout of Saharan dust could come our way Monday and Tuesday. For now, I’ll say mid-90s, but if the Saharan dust is minimal Monday and Tuesday, we do have a decent shot at upper-90s on those days in some parts of the area.

Late next week

The heat should stay cooking for later next week, with highs in the mid to upper-90s continuing. We may even see a stronger surge of heat later next weekend or the week of the 28th. Rain chances may pick back up a little by Friday or next weekend. Overall, it looks fairly dry next week across the region.

In brief: Serious flooding is ongoing in Central Texas along the Guadalupe and San Saba Rivers after a foot of rain or more fell across parts of that area. Locally, another round of thunderstorms is likely this afternoon, followed by a fairly typical summer-like pattern this weekend and beyond.

Thursday & Thursday night storms

As noted yesterday morning by Eric, the forecast changed rather abruptly. And yesterday’s storms, while fairly quick movers, hit with some punch. Thankfully they did, as we saw instantaneous rain rates as high as 4 to 6 inches per hour in spots! Rainfall varied overall, with as much as 2 inches or a bit more in northeast Harris County and about a quarter-inch in western Harris County.

On a more serious note, parts of Hill County have seen some severe rain overnight. South-Central Kerr County is estimated to have received as much as nearly a foot of rainfall. This has led to flash flood emergencies there and along the Guadalupe River. The river at Hunt, TX is approaching 30 feet, beyond the 1987 flood event at that gage.

Downstream in Kerrville, they aren’t expected to hit the 37 feet of 1987, but it still looks to be a top 3 flood. Meanwhile, San Angelo saw around 8 inches of rain, with over 12 inches just north of the city. Additional rivers are expected to rise deep into flood stage, with major flooding possible in spots. If you have friends or family that headed out to the Guadalupe or San Saba Rivers, make sure they’re taking any warnings from local officials seriously. More rain is possible today, with some already occurring again this morning.

Today

For Houston, today should probably unfold somewhat similar to yesterday with showers likely to pop up across the region this afternoon. Rain could again be heavy.

Storms should keep moving today limiting flooding risk. Some gusty winds and frequent lightning will be possible as well. We do expect storms to settle down or dissipate in time for evening celebrations across the region.

Weekend

Additional scattered showers and storms are likely tomorrow, followed by a lesser chance on Sunday. Overall, if you can just manage to live with some passing showers for an hour or two, the weekend should be fine. We’ll keep watching in case anything should change on us again, however. Expect highs in the mid-90s and lows in the 70s.

Next week

It looks like a mostly typical summer week next week. I would expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, with highs in the 90s. There may be a skew toward slightly less afternoon storm coverage and hotter temps later in the week.

In brief: Another round of localized heavy rain, street flooding, and lightning will be possible this afternoon somewhere near or just northwest of Highway 59/I-69 in Houston. Slightly less coverage for Saturday, then more numerous showers and storms come at us Sunday and Monday before we dry out and heat up.

If you live inside the Beltway on the north and west side of Houston, you probably got walloped yesterday. Over 4 inches of rain was recorded at Ella and White Oak Bayou.

Rain totals north of 3 inches fell in a pretty broad area between The Villages and Garden Oaks. Many other locations saw 1 to 3 inches of rain. Outside the Beltway, it went quiet until you got up to about Kingwood (always, Kingwood) and down into Fort Bend County. Yesterday was just one of those days where boundary collisions ruled the day. A few storms popped up, steering winds were weak, and basically atmospheric bumper cars ensued until we exhausted the instability in the area.

Today

We don’t expect a carbon copy today, however I would not be shocked to see a generally similar setup play out across the area. We’re already seeing some downpours in Liberty and Chambers Counties this morning. As the morning goes on and the sea breeze starts entering the mix, migrating inland with peak instability, we’ll likely see storms fire up near Highway 59/I-69.

A few places could again see multi-inch per hour rain rates that could cause street flooding. We’re holding off on a Stage 1 flood alert today, but I will admit it’s a close call. Just use caution in any storms today, as you should in summer.

Weekend

I think things will ease up a bit on Saturday. There will be showers and isolated thunderstorms around. There may be locally heavy downpours for a short time in any given spot. But overall the intensity and coverage of storms may be lower tomorrow than it has been to close the week out.

Unfortunately, the same does not hold true for Sunday, which should see more numerous, if not widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. Storms could begin firing up as early as mid-morning and continue through the day, migrating generally north and west as the day progresses. Have an umbrella handy both days, but have a good indoor backup plan available on Sunday.

Temperatures should top out in the lower to mid-90s on Saturday and low-90s or even upper-80s on Sunday.

Monday

Monday looks like another active day with showers and storms popping with daytime heating. Look for low-90s and scattered PM storms.

Rest of next week

Tuesday begins a trend of diminishing rain chances. Expect more of isolated coverage of storms on Tuesday, a handful on Wednesday, and perhaps none at all by the end of the week. In response, temperatures are going to begin to pick up. We’ll have mid-90s Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a chance at upper-90s to close the week.

Recent rains and saturated soils may act to keep daytime highs from getting much past 97 or 98 degrees or so officially, but there may be a few parts of the area that threaten upper 90s to near 100 by next weekend. Stay tuned.

Tropics

A discerning eye will notice a new tropical area to watch on the National Hurricane Center site down in the Bay of Campeche. This has a very, very slight opportunity to develop over the next couple days.

The good news is that it will almost certainly scoot right into Mexico by Monday. This limits any significant development risk, and this is not a concern for the Texas coast. The next tropical area of interest may be something in the northeastern Gulf or off the Florida coast by next weekend. That too is expected to stay away from Texas and is mainly worth watching for Florida or the Southeast coast.