Matt Lanza

In brief: Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening in the Houston area, especially north of I-10. Hail and strong wind gusts are the main concerns. Heavy rain is also likely in spots, so a stage 1 flood alert has been posted. After today, we get some quiet, if not absolutely beautiful weather this weekend.

Today/tonight

So, let’s get this out of the way first: This morning looks fine. No issues.

Starting this afternoon, probably not long after lunchtime, numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to begin developing north of I-10. The environment over Houston looks conducive for virtually any storm to become strong to severe today. As such, we are now in an enhanced risk (3/5) of severe weather this afternoon and evening.

The two main threats today will be pockets of strong wind gusts in excess of 40-50 mph and the potential for hail. An isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out, but the bigger risks are damaging wind and hail today. The evolution of storms today will probably be individual cells eventually congealing into a line that lingers for a bit over much of the Houston area, again focused near or north of I-10. The severe storm threat should begin to wane after sunset, but additional thunderstorms are likely, especially south of I-10 overnight. So, almost everyone should get a chance to participate today with the nastier storms north this afternoon and evening and less intense storms south this evening and overnight.

In addition to the hail and wind, these storms could produce torrential rainfall, with totals of up to 3 or 4 inches possible in isolated pockets. Street flooding could easily crop up with storms like this. So, with that in mind, we are issuing a stage 1 flood alert for this afternoon and evening across the area, mainly north of I-10.

There are always fail modes on days like this, and it could be that we end up with heavy rain and generic thunderstorms more so than severe weather. But the environment today is definitely primed for some strong to severe storms, so particularly between about 1 PM and 8 PM, you’ll want to remain tuned into what’s happening.

Eric will have the latest for you around midday with a fresh update. We will follow with further updates as needed thereafter.

Saturday and Sunday

After some lingering showers well south of Houston or near the coast in the morning, Saturday itself looks like a fine day. Actually, it may end up being an absolutely spectacular day, but I want to keep expectations a little in check. But expect a return of some sunshine, noticeably lower humidity, and highs into the low 80s. Morning lows should be in the lower 60s. Look for much the same on Sunday without the morning shower chance.

You never know when you’re going to get your last really, really nice day before summer sinks in, so take advantage of tomorrow and Sunday if you’re able!

Next week

After another decent day Monday (albeit a bit warmer), we will re-emerge into an unsettled weather pattern for much of next week. Day by day details are tough to pin down right now, but look for at least a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Some of the storms could be strong, and some of the rain could be heavy.

More data!

I generally abide by a separation of church and state when it comes to my day job and my work with Space City Weather. However, I am going to make a minor exception in this case. For those that do not know, I was hired in November to be CenterPoint Energy’s new manager of meteorology. Among the many things I was tasked with out of the gate was siting and launching a network of 100 weather sensors across the Houston area, as part of the company’s commitments in the Greater Houston Resiliency Initiative. In case you had not seen earlier this week, that process is now underway, and you can see the data from over 60 new weather sensors across the area here!

You may ask, “Well aren’t there already a lot of weather sensors reporting here?” The answer is yes. There are. But even when you plot virtually every network of weather stations, there are still some data gaps, there are periodically reliability issues, and most of you know how the weather goes in Houston where it rains at your neighbor’s house but not yours.

I’m hoping we can fill some of those gaps, assist with improving weather forecasting in the Houston area, and add additional data to be used by the NWS, flood control agencies, etc. to assist in understanding or researching weather in the Houston area. More data is good for everyone. So this project has excited me, I’m glad we can share this data with the weather community, and I look forward to seeing it grow further.

In brief: One more chance at scattered storms exists today in Houston, followed by a quiet, hot weekend. We’ll get some classic early summer fare before our next chance at storms and a possible cool front later next week.

Most parts of the Houston area have seen a pretty good week in the rainfall department. Everyone has seen about a half inch to an inch of rain, with a couple exceptions near Wharton, College Station, and the East End of Galveston onto the Bolivar Peninsula.

Three areas really stood out this week. The area just north of Baytown and west of Mont Belvieu saw over 6 inches of rain. Pearland also got close to 6 inches of rainfall in spots. It’s likely that Liverpool in Brazoria County may have seen even higher totals this week. The area just south of Lake Livingston also saw nearly 6 inches of rain. So, your mileage definitely varies, but all in all a beneficial week of rainfall here.

Today

We have one “kinda sorta” chance of rain today. This should not be anything organized; just heating of the day random pop-up downpours. Most places will probably be dry today, but those that see a downpour could snag a quick quarter to half inch of additional rainfall or even a bit more along with some thunder and lightning. Otherwise, expect decreasing clouds and highs well into the 80s. All good for the Dash match tonight.

Saturday and Sunday

Both days may start off with clouds but transition to sunshine. Expect warm, humid conditions all weekend. Highs will be in the mid to upper-80s, with lows around 70 degrees. MS150 riders will get the tailwind this weekend at least, out of the southeast 5 to 15 mph or so. An isolated downpour can’t be entirely ruled out for the weekend, especially on Sunday, but it seems highly unlikely. Conditions look all good for the SaberCats or Dynamo matches Saturday.

Monday and Tuesday

I would expect more of the same for the start of next week: Clouds to sun, highs in the upper-80s and lows in the low to mid-70s. We do have a chance at 90 degrees on Tuesday.

Wednesday and onward

Conditions get more unsettled Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. We’ll see about risks for heavy rain or any severe weather; it’s too soon to say at the moment, but it would seem we will get a couple rounds of storms in the area. We could see a push of drier air follow a cool front on Thursday, which could set up a nice end of the week. Fingers crossed.

In brief: The first part of the weekend looks good, but we do expect Houston to see thunderstorms on Easter Sunday. Some of those storms could be strong, and that will be followed by more storm chances next week. Springtime is in force.

Today & Saturday

If you like hot weather, you’re in luck! There’s a pretty good chance we’ll hit or exceed 90 degrees today. It will also be quite breezy with south winds gusting up to 30 mph or so. Other than that, expect a mix of clouds and sun.

Saturday will be a bit cloudier. We’ll have a very mild morning, with lows probably not much below 75 degrees, close to a record for warmest April 19th morning. The day should again be breezy, mostly cloudy, and not quite as hot (but plenty humid). Highs should get into the mid or upper-80s. Shower chances look minimal, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the sky squeezed out a few raindrops here or there. Better shower chances will exist back toward Hill Country.

Easter Sunday

Sunday morning will be at least a little interesting. There should be a line or complex of thunderstorms near I-35 and the Austin area around sunrise. As those cross I-35 and move toward southeast Texas, they *should* begin to fall apart. Thus, the morning should be mostly cloudy with a couple showers here or there. As the boundary from that decaying line of storms hits Houston in the afternoon, we should see new thunderstorms blossom across the area. Some of these storms could be on the stronger side, and the SPC has us partially in a marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather on Sunday. This could yet change some between now and Sunday.

In addition to the potential for some strong to severe storms, atmospheric moisture levels will be more typical of mid-summer, so we could see some torrential downpours and localized street flooding crop up.

Eric and I will monitor this through tomorrow and have any updates for you on Sunday morning.

Next week

The cold front that will be responsible for the storms on Sunday is likely to stall out or wash out overhead. I would not be shocked to see the focus of thunderstorm activity on Monday to stay mostly east of Houston, closer to Lake Charles and Beaumont. But by Tuesday, that may swing back toward us, leading to scattered storms for Tuesday and possibly Wednesday or Thursday. This is the time of year where we can see afternoon storms blow up in portions of north or central Texas, organize into a cluster, and make their way toward us as complexes of storms called mesoscale convective systems (or MCS’s). I would not be at all shocked to see us have to wrangle that next week at least once. Bottom line: It looks unsettled.

It’s a bit early to get into potential specifics, but it does appear that next week will be active. The clouds and shower chances will hold daytime temperatures lower next week (more like low 80s), with warm nighttimes in the upper-60s to low-70s.

In brief: Sunshine for days in Houston.

To be honest, there is very little to discuss with respect to Houston’s weather forecast. We expect sunshine, warm and dry weather, and some ground ozone/air quality issues in the mornings and evenings over the next few days. Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s. Beginning around Sunday, we’ll add some more humidity to the mix and slightly hotter weather with highs near 90 degrees by Monday and lows in the 60s. Overall, it looks great, albeit a little hotter than usual for April.

Our next meaningful rain chance likely does not come until the middle of next week, if then. More to come.

Hurricane season preview

With that out of the way, we know some of you were curious about our thoughts on Colorado State’s hurricane outlook released last week. I posted a bit about that over at our nationally-focused companion site, The Eyewall yesterday. I am posting most of it again here to reach our Houston audience.

Late last week, the team at Colorado State University issued their always hotly anticipated seasonal hurricane outlook for the Atlantic Basin. To clear this up at the beginning, their forecast calls for:

• 17 named storms (normal 14)
• 9 hurricanes (normal 7)
• 4 major hurricanes (normal 3)
• Accumulated cyclone energy: 155 (normal 123)

Nothing about this forecast on the surface is especially notable or alarming or fascinating. It’s simply a slightly above average forecast.

But what is somewhat notable about their forecast is some of the under the hood items they address. First, we are likely to be coming out of a La Niña event, something we discussed last back in February. But as the CSU team notes, we don’t know for sure if we’re headed for El Niño or ENSO neutral (La Nada) conditions. ENSO neutral summers combined with warm water temperatures “typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.” In other words, hurricanes like those background conditions.

We do not yet have a “plume” from the C3S suite for April, but the March plume skewed slightly toward El Niño development.

If we get to El Niño conditions by late summer or fall, that does not guarantee that conditions will shift to become more hostile to hurricane development. But that may take the edge off a bit. However, if we “hang” near the neutral line or even in weak La Niña territory, any hostile conditions may be apt to stay away, ensuring a busier season than usual.

In addition to the forecast for named storms and such, the CSU team also does try to convert that seasonal outlook to a prediction of U.S. landfall risk. Indeed, with a more active season expected, the odds of a U.S. landfall are also higher. They have a 51 percent chance of a major hurricane landfall on the U.S. coast, compared to a historical average of 43 percent. The odds on the East Coast are 26 percent, compared to 21 percent typically. And in the Gulf, the landfall odds between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville are 33 percent versus a 27 percent average.

According to the CSU team, all model guidance is pointing to an above-normal season. Water temperatures remain well above long-term averages across the Atlantic. As we noted earlier this year, however, this is not last year’s Atlantic sea-surface temperature profile. But it’s still quite warm.

From the map above, you’ll notice that the eastern Atlantic has cooled markedly since last year, however the Gulf, Caribbean, and northern Atlantic Ocean are all warmer. The fire that was burning all last summer in the eastern Atlantic is still smoldering, but it has been somewhat extinguished. The Gulf and Caribbean are another matter. The Gulf is warmer than 2024 by a good bit but still lags 2023. While the Caribbean was warmer than 2024 in March, it has since cooled some in April, taking it back under 2024 levels. Water temperature conditions can change quickly, but the bottom line is that the Atlantic, with the exception of the eastern basin are in the upper echelon of warm years at this point. The warmer overall waters in March in the eastern North Atlantic (north of the tropics), along with the warm Caribbean do correlate to active hurricane seasons.

The bottom line is that the underlying data support the idea of an active hurricane season — but not to the levels feared last year. But there aren’t very many red flags at this time arguing against that outcome. At least last year, we had the expectation of a developing La Niña to help grease the wheels a bit, and a slow development could have slowed the hurricane season a bit. This year? There’s no real glaring red flag that says the season will bust. But hurricane seasons always have surprises. Hopefully this year’s involves calm.