Matt Lanza

In brief: Scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms will dot the Houston area today and Saturday, although we really, really need some rain. A generally pleasant stretch of weather will follow, with periodic cool fronts reinforcing warm but mostly comfortable autumn weather. Our first real big front of the season may be on the horizon before Halloween.

The first 16 days of October have ended with Houston recording a top 10 warmest front half of the month on record. It’s not just us either. Chicago’s had a top 10 warmest October so far. Atlanta is in the top 20. Miami is in the top 25, and St. Louis ranks third warmest right now. While the West has been cooler and the East Coast near average, the center of the country has remained toasty so far this month. That may be about to change a bit. We may be in line for more fairly nice mornings, warm to perhaps hot daytimes but I think at levels below what we’ve seen so far this autumn. In other words, we’re getting there.

Speaking of temperatures…

If you use the Space City Weather app (and you should), and if you set your city to Houston, those observations come from Bush Airport. If you’ve followed along this summer, you know that the official Houston temperature sensor at IAH has been a source of confusion, amusement, annoyance, conspiracy theories, outrage, and curiosity. To that end, out of an abundance of caution, the temperature sensor at IAH was replaced this week. The previous sensor was reading within what was expected, but given the wide ranging displeasure that has been shared, including by some credible folks on the matter, it’s been replaced. As I noted earlier this summer, we can quibble with the choice of IAH to represent Houston’s official temperature, but that doesn’t mean the sensor itself is wrong. It’s a temperature at IAH, not in your backyard. How that impacts how we view records is perhaps a bit more complicated and contentious but after looking at summer’s data, it does not seem to have made IAH a distinct outlier in the region by any means.

Anyway, for those of you scoring at home, there’s a new temperature sensor in town. Have at the data.

Friday through Sunday

Scattered showers are going to pop up today across the region. We need the rain.

Drought now covers nearly 40 percent of the Houston area, with severe drought now showing up in parts of Colorado and Wharton Counties. If you get a passing shower today or tomorrow, consider yourself fortunate. Expect showers today to behave with the heating of the day, increasing in coverage from morning through afternoon, then diminishing after dark. Showers should maneuver farther inland today so hopefully other parts of the area away from the coast could pick up a scattered quarter to half-inch of rain.

On Saturday, showers will start in the morning again, initially mostly near the coast and west of I-45 out across Katy into Fort Bend County. By the time we get to midday, the focus of the activity should migrate eastward toward I-45 and perhaps east of downtown Houston. Include an umbrella in your plans both Friday and Saturday anywhere in the area, but it is unlikely you’ll need one all day or even most of the day. We probably won’t see severe weather on Saturday, but to our north, there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) in place up toward Lufkin and a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) closer to Lake Livingston.

The front itself passes on Sunday morning around sunrise. Right now, we aren’t expecting much fanfare with the front; it looks like a dry passage. We’ll see temperatures and humidity drop off a bit as it does so. The rest of the day looks breezy with sunshine and highs in the upper 80s. It will feel much more comfortable. Some wildfire risk is in place in the area Sunday afternoon, but it does not appear any worse than previous wildfire risk days we’ve had so far this autumn. Just use caution with anything flammable outdoors.

Early next week

Monday looks sunny and pleasant with highs in the upper-80s and morning lows in the 50s and 60s. Another front should reinforce this pleasant but not quite “cool” air mass on Tuesday night. It may bring a few showers out ahead of it as humidity attempts to return, but the odds look minimal right now. We’ll hold with mid to upper 80s for highs and generally 60s for lows.

Later next week

I’m with Eric that we could very well see another weak cold front later in the week. It does not appear to be THE fall front just yet, however. There is increasing signal in the modeling that that front will wait until right before Halloween. We’ll either be celebrating the arrival of fall or celebrating its imminent arrival at our Fall Day celebration next weekend. Stay tuned.

In brief: Dry weather will continue in the Houston area for the foreseeable future with warm to hot afternoons and somewhat pleasant mornings. Drought is expanding in Houston now, and with that comes some elevated wildfire risk, particularly today north and east of Houston. Thankfully, winds look generally light on land.

Good morning, and if you’ve stepped outside this morning, it really does feel kind of good! Much of the area is seeing temperatures in the 60s this morning.

Tonight should be even a bit cooler. Low humidity will allow for cooler nights and continued warm to hot days heading into next week.

Drought update

A couple notes on that drier air: First off, drought has finally begun to creep into the Houston area.

We’ve seen some drought on the fringes, but that has now begun creeping into the immediate metro. With no rain expected over the next week, this should continue to slowly expand. Thankfully, we were able to bank some rain this summer due to the frequent cadence of daily storms. But that only gets you so far once you get to autumn.

Wildfire risk

Because of this dry, less humid weather and expanding drought, human-caused wildfire risk is somewhat elevated, particularly today and possibly tomorrow. Please continue to use extreme caution outdoors when it comes to anything that could lead to a fire. Thankfully the winds are well below Red Flag Warning criteria, but even still, this is a reminder that wildfires can and have happened here before.

Humidity levels increase enough to suppress wildfire risk after tomorrow. We may get a brief reinforcing “cool” front next week, but aside from that, today should be the most elevated day for fire risk for a bit.

Forecast notes

The forecast is pretty straightforward other than what we’ve discussed above! We expect little to no rain over the next 7 to 10 days. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Morning lows will be in the lower 60s tomorrow, then mid to upper 60s heading into next week. Not a whole lot of risk or wrinkles to this forecast right now. So, expect sunshine, occasional ozone alerts, and continued bad allergy weather. Both the good and the bad in early October in Houston.

In brief: Hot weather will persist with increasing humidity this weekend. Shower chances remain low but even those will increase a tinge as we go through the weekend and into next week. Our next front may (or may not) pass through late next week or weekend. We also assess where we stand with drought in the area today.

If you’re like me and absolutely loathe this period between August and true autumn, it actually has not been a terrible stretch of weather. Yes, it’s hot, but the humidity levels have been quite tolerable each day, and it has not felt totally miserable. The humidity levels are now expected to increase, albeit slowly ahead of our next front, which may or may not arrive by late next week.

Today through Monday

Shower chances will slowly increase through the weekend. These are going to be isolated showers, nothing widespread and probably nothing you need to really plan around. You may just get rained on for a few minutes, particularly near the coast this weekend but possibly farther inland by Monday.

It will be hot, so if you’re attending any outside events this weekend, such as the Southern Smoke Festival just make sure to stay hydrated. Highs will be near 90 with lows in the 70s.

Tuesday through Thursday

We could see temperatures increase a degree or two here, but otherwise, it looks like status quo from this weekend. Just hot, humid, and a minor chance of passing showers each afternoon.

Later next week

We still see at least some model support for a cool front, maybe more like a humidity front later next week or weekend. Eric gave it about 30 to 50 percent odds yesterday, and I think that stands pat today right around there. We’ll continue to watch.

Drought?

We’ve had a dry week. We’ve had little to no rain, and despite shower chances peppering the forecast going into next week, it does not look like most areas will see significant rain at all. So are we heading toward a drought? The answer is maybe. We saw some degradation in conditions with yesterday’s report, but the vast majority of our region still remains outside of drought.

The only areas in technical drought are just west of the Brazos River. Most of the Houston area remains normal or just abnormally dry. If dry weather persists, we’ll probably see this expand in the coming weeks or months. But with drought, it’s a long game usually. We’ll see.

In brief: A lengthy stretch of quiet weather will settle into Houston. No rain is expected over the next week, and temperatures look warm for this time of year, albeit with tolerable humidity. Our next front is TBD. The tropics remain a non-concern for Texas.

We are heading into a lengthy stretch of pretty quiet weather in the Houston area. Just to give you an idea of how quiet, here’s the 7-day rainfall forecast from the NWS for our area:

So, expect a lot of sunshine the next several days!

With that will come drier conditions and certainly more autumn-like humidity levels. This will keep things hot but relatively comfortable. However, each afternoon, relative humidity levels should dip below 40 or even 30 percent.

With light winds forecast for the foreseeable future and some ample rain in many spots of late, fire danger isn’t exactly high, but if you are going to be working with open flames, particularly in more rural parts of the region, you’ll want to exercise some caution given the drier air mass in place here.

We will probably see humidity levels rebound a little next week. Temperature levels will too. We’ll go from upper-80s to around 90 degrees the next few days into the firmer low-90s later next week. Nighttime lows will only increase slowly, back to perhaps near or above 70 by later next week.

We could see temps spike to the mid-90s for a couple days later next week. Our next front is TBD, but there are hints of perhaps another weak one next weekend.

Tropics

We continue to see the Gulf shut out of tropics risks, good news for sure. But folks on the East Coast will need to monitor the 90% development area. Potential tropical cyclone advisories could be issued on this as early as later today. The track forecast is coming into focus now, with a path toward the Carolinas likely.

There are still a number of questions on 94L moving into the Bahamas. But it looks like it will be a hefty rainmaker for parts of the Carolinas, hopefully east of the footprint of Helene last year. You can follow our coverage of this system at The Eyewall.