Matt Lanza

In brief: Gorgeous weather allows the Houston area to exhale today before one more chance of storms on Saturday. The highest risk of significant weather on Saturday is east of our area into Louisiana and Mississippi, but a few noisy storms could impact a couple areas Saturday morning or afternoon. We have a gorgeous Sunday, followed by notably cooler weather after Monday next week.

As of this morning, the National Weather Service has confirmed at least four tornadoes across Southeast Texas.

Two were in Liberty County, including one which damaged an RV park. A third was a waterspout that crossed from Lake Houston onto land for a short time. The fourth was the very well-documented tornado that occurred in El Campo to the southwest of Houston. A fifth possible tornado was reported near Sugar Land, and as surveys unfold today, we could see a couple more added to the board.

Overall, this was a pretty good forecast. A lot of our severe weather days here are on the margins; either the cap breaks and we get hit, or it holds and we get minimal action. Yesterday was an example of the rare case where it was pretty clear cut that we had a severe risk over the entire area but only a few spots would see the really bad stuff. Rain forecasting will always be more challenging to pin down, so from that point of view, your mileage may have varied this week. But overall, the last few days have not thrown us too many curves thankfully, even if it has felt a bit out of season.

Today

Take a breath today. Low clouds and fog may be with us for a bit longer south and east of Houston, but it will clear out and turn out to be a really nice day overall. Highs will be in the low-70s.

Saturday

The third in our parade of systems arrives Saturday. Each successive one has ended up firing up farther east than the previous system, and Saturday should be no different. This looks like a similar setup to yesterday shifted about 150 miles or so to the east. What does that mean for Houston? We are in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Rather than being hit directly by a bunch of storms, we are located where a lot of the storms will kick off. So look for isolated to scattered showers and storms to impact the area from early morning into mid-afternoon, with perhaps a slightly higher risk north and east of the area. However, the storm coverage should not be nearly like we’ve seen this week.

One potential exception to all this may be south and east of Houston, particularly on Saturday morning between 5 and 10 AM or so. As the initial surge of warmer air returns, it could come with some strong thunderstorms, and I would not be surprised to see one or two heavy, noisy storms in Galveston, Chambers, or Jefferson Counties on Saturday morning.

Otherwise, high temperatures will be mild, topping off in the mid to upper-70s, with morning lows near 60 degrees.

Sunday

We clear out again by Sunday morning, leaving us sunny and very, very pleasant with highs in the low-70s.

Next week

Monday starts off warm, with highs well into the 70s. It should remain sunny however. Our strongest cold front since before Christmas arrives on Monday night or Tuesday morning. This will knock us back into the 60s for highs and 40s for lows in Houston, perhaps a bit colder in outlying areas. This appears right now to be a dry cold front, so we do not expect much, if any rain beyond tomorrow.

Beyond next week

I guess there has been some speculation floating around about snow risk and freeze risk in Texas on the proverbial internet. The comments we have gotten from people have ranged from next week to the second week of January on the timing, which raises a red flag immediately. Look. It’s the time of year where, yes, we will be watching for cold risks in the long range that could be capable of producing a Texas freeze. We see nothing of that nature right now.

The Climate Prediction Center is also not outlining anything of note in their 8 to 14 day hazard outlook (which is where you’d expect to start to see warning signs of a freeze). So at this point, we aren’t too concerned about that.

As for wintry precip, we don’t see much risk of that in early January here in Houston. There are subtle hints on the GFS operational model, as well as in some AI model guidance that a very brief setup that historically has been favorable for wintry precip somewhere in Texas may occur midweek the week of January 6th. That’s a solid 10 days from now, so I would not be placing my life savings on that possibility. Also, Texas is big, so I couldn’t tell you if that’s an Amarillo risk, a Dallas risk, or an Oklahoma risk. But it gives us something, I guess, to watch after New Year’s.

In brief: Cool air is settling back into the Houston area this morning, and a secondary push of it arrives Friday night. Look for increasing sunshine today, then plenty of sunshine through Sunday. Clouds and some scattered rain chances do come back next week, including potentially for Christmas Eve and Day. Temperatures will also surge back into the 70s.

Today & Friday

We’re starting off the morning on a cool, crisp note across the Houston area.

There are a couple pockets of low clouds that need to scour out this morning, but the trend today will be toward increasing sunshine with highs into the 60s in most spots.

Tomorrow looks pretty similar overall. Sunshine should dominate the picture, with highs generally in the 60s and lows generally in the 30s to low-40s. A light freeze cannot be entirely ruled out way north of the city, probably up toward Crockett or Madisonville by Saturday morning. But no freezing temps are expected in the city or suburbs as it stands right now.

Saturday and Sunday

A weak secondary push of cold air arrives Friday night to extend the cool weather into the weekend. Our coolest day will probably be Saturday, also conveniently the Winter Solstice (at 3:21 AM for those of you looking to close out a fun Friday night on a celebratory note). Look for highs in the 50s, maybe low-60s south of Houston. Sunday should be a few ticks warmer with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Both days look sun-filled.

Monday

Onshore flows kicks back in next week, and we’ll probably see a few more clouds on Monday in addition to some sun. We’ll ramp high temperatures back up close to 70 in the afternoon with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Christmas Eve

Timing-wise, the next storm system to impact the state is a bit suboptimal, moving in on Christmas Eve. The good news is that we do not expect a ton of rain and storms, but unfortunately there will be at least some rain and storms around on Christmas Eve that could play a role with any events on Tuesday. We move temps up to the low to mid-70s.

Christmas Day and beyond

Well, Christmas Day looks fairly similar to Christmas Eve right now with warm temps and some scattered rain chances. Morning lows should be in the 50s to near 60 on Christmas, with daytime highs ramping up into the mid-70s. We could get a weak cool front on Thursday with a chance of more numerous showers and storms and a slight cooldown for Friday. Then we should warm back up with at least a non-zero chance for an 80 again somewhere in our area next weekend or so. Our next meaningful front is at least showing on the models around New Years Day, but obviously that’s still 12 days out so don’t bank on that just yet.

In brief: Rain chances return to Houston today, and they look to hang with us off and on through next week. While rain accumulations look mostly minor, there could be a few spots that see a couple inches of rainfall. A warming trend kicks off, with a lot of 70s and even an outside chance at 80 degrees in a few spots. Cooler weather arrives again later next week.

Today

Radar shows very, very light precipitation across the area this morning, with the exception of a few steadier showers down in Matagorda County. As the day goes on, look for more and more of this activity. Most people probably won’t see heavy rain, but a couple downpours will be around. Temperatures and humidity will do the slow climb today with cloud cover. Look for low 70s south and mid-60s north today. It’ll also be a touch breezy at times today.

Saturday

Drizzle and showers will continue tonight and into tomorrow. As we build up more warmth, humidity, and available moisture tomorrow, we could see some thunderstorms as well. It appears that’s most likely north and west of the city, closer to the front. But don’t be surprised to hear some thunder on Saturday anywhere. Temperatures will be tricky. Ahead of the front, we should see widespread 70s for highs and even a puncher’s chance at 80 degrees down toward Victoria or Bay City. But as the front nudges into parts of the area, even if it stalls out, places like College Station or Huntsville could slip back into the 60s tomorrow afternoon. Dress for spring south and maybe two seasons north.

Sunday

The cold front backs up to the north later this weekend, and this should allow for low clouds and/or patchy fog to make for a dreary-at-times Sunday. There will be drizzle and some passing showers around, but Sunday may have the best chance at some more dry periods. We’ll see highs in the 70s everywhere, with at least a few 80s possible south of I-10.

Monday through Wednesday

Like a pendulum, the front swings back toward us on Monday. This should bring back a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. The front may again stall, this time closer to Houston, which may actually give the metro area a better chance of showers or storms Monday than we see tomorrow. Whatever the case, the front will again retreat Tuesday before a stronger front hits the area on Wednesday.

Total rainfall has been mostly a bummer lately, and model forecasts heading into this event are also somewhat tantalizing, with the Euro for example showing north of 3 inches of rain in northwest Harris County between now and next week. So, with that in mind, I would say to expect a quarter to half inch in most spots. There will be “lollipops” of 1 to 3 inches, but if recent history is a guide they will be an exception, not the rule.

Temperatures will be in the 70s to near 80 again on Monday, though as the front approaches, we could see temporary cooler air filter in north and west of Houston. Tuesday may be a hair cooler as the air mass tries to recover some. Let’s call it low-70s for highs for now. Then on Wednesday, we’ll see a slight bump up in humidity and morning lows before the front hits.

Late next week

Thursday should see temps back into the 40s for lows and struggle into the upper-50s for highs. It’ll stay cool into the weekend with temps in the 30s and 40s for lows and 50s and 60s for highs. A warming trend may occur into Christmas, but to what degree and whether it comes with rain or chances for another front is still to be determined.

In brief: Houston gets to bathe in near-80° weather today before a cold front tonight sends us back to autumn and early winter with the coldest air of the season so far arriving. A light freeze is possible north and west of the city on Tuesday night and Wednesday night before we bring back rain chances and warm up this weekend.

Today

After a dreary weekend, especially Sunday, we will start the week on a bit of a nicer note. Look for some sunshine today mixed up with cloud cover. Let’s call it “decreasing clouds.” We don’t expect any rain, but what we do expect is warmth. Warm air getting pumped in from the southwest will allow our high temperature today to flirt with 80 degrees! This will be a few degrees shy of the 85° record from 2021. Still, for the warm weather lovers, enjoy. It changes again tomorrow.

Tuesday through Thursday

A cold front is going to push through the region tonight, ushering in a much colder air mass for Tuesday. Despite sunshine, morning lows in the 40s and 50s will be sluggish to warm up on increasing northwest winds Tuesday afternoon. We’ll manage 60 or the low-60s at best. Then, the coldest mornings of the season so far will follow on Wednesday and Thursday. We should see lows in the 30s in the city, near freezing in some of the northern and western suburbs, and at or below freezing just north and west of there.

Wind gusts on Tuesday evening will be 25 to 35 mph, strongest at the coast. We should see sunshine and highs in the 50s or around 60 degrees on Wednesday. Thursday will probably see increasing clouds with morning lows similar to Wednesday morning and afternoon highs in the low to mid-60s.

Friday and the weekend

Warmer temps will try to work back into the region Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, with highs approaching the 70s again. Morning lows will step up into the 40s and then 50s, if not low-60s this weekend as well. Unfortunately, it’s looking a bit dreary again. Despite the off and on rain this weekend, almost all the area saw merely a quarter to half-inch of rain. So it was not a lot. This coming weekend could see even a bit less than that. So for now, let’s open the bidding at a quarter-inch or so on average this weekend, especially given how recent rains seem to have underperformed. We’ll fine tune things as we get closer.

Our next meaningful cold front looks to arrive sometime midweek or late week next week. We are still a couple of days away from having a solid indication on Christmas weather, so let’s wildly speculate instead. With colder weather late next week, we could see a warming trend leading into the holiday but exactly how warm is TBD. More to come.