Matt Lanza

Yesterday was just glorious. Definitely a top 10 day. And the Astros won with the roof open. Today will be fairly nice, albeit a bit warmer and just a tinge more humid. Look for humidity to increase a bit further this weekend before we get involved in a little mischief and hopefully some meaningful rain chances next week.

Today

More of the same from the last couple days; just add about 5 degrees or so. Look for ample sunshine and slowly increasing humidity. We’ll top off generally in the mid-80s, with a few spots a little hotter.

Weekend

Both Saturday and Sunday look predominantly dry, so if you have outdoor plans, you should be fine. I mean, I guess a sprinkle or shower is possible on Sunday, but I won’t belabor the point. Look for sunny skies Saturday with a few more clouds on Sunday. Temperatures should be in the mid to upper-80s.

If you want to complain about something other than hotter temps, perhaps the wind may draw your ire this weekend. We expect southerly winds sustained around 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up over 25 mph at times, especially over the water or at night in far inland locations. It will be the strongest onshore wind we’ve had since possibly springtime.

Monday and Tuesday

Our first attempt at mischief comes later Monday and Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. There are still questions as to how much moisture this front will have, but at the very least there’s a notable chance for a period of showers, possibly some heavy ones, Monday night or Tuesday. I wouldn’t get my hopes up for major drought relief, but we’re hopeful for some meaningful rain at least. I’m not sure how your backyard is doing, but I have only seen a quarter-inch in mine over the last 45 days. Any rain is better than none.

It will be a warm and humid Monday with decreasing humidity later Tuesday. We should manage the 80s on Monday, with morning lows in the 70s. Tuesday will be a bit cooler with 70s from morning into afternoon.

Later next week through Halloween

After a couple cool days Wednesday into Thursday (AM lows in the 50s), we’ll probably get another surge of humidity on Friday before a cold front wipes it out late or into Saturday. Again, the big question swirls around how much rain we’ll actually see. Much like with Tuesday, I would remain cautiously optimistic for some helpful rain. That should setup a lovely weekend. The early read on Halloween is probably seasonably pleasant (think maybe 60s at Trick or Treat time), but we’ll check in on that more next week.

The Astros weren’t the only winners on Thursday. Some folks saw actual rain yesterday too. The jackpot winners came in about three different areas: Dickinson in Galveston County, Fresno and Sienna Plantation, and just south of Sealy. There were a few other spots south and west of the Houston area that did okay as well.

The highest measured totals I could find were near Dickinson (3.16″), Southfork (2.04″), and La Porte (1.96″). Yesterday’s Drought Monitor update underscored our need for rain, as drought coverage expanded by another 12 percent in the Houston region.

The good news is that we have more rain chances coming. The bad news is that these will likely do little to alleviate the underlying problem.

Today

All in all, today should be decent, albeit hot. The front has cleared most of the area, and we have slightly lower humidity in place now, but that drier air with sunshine will allow temperatures to efficiently heat up. Someone should hit 90 degrees today, but most of us will top out in the mid to upper-80s. A shower can’t be completely ruled out south of the city toward Matagorda Bay.

Weekend

Saturday looks to be a fairly uneventful day with sun, clouds, warm and more humid air, and just a very, very slight shower chance. Temperatures will warm from the 60s into the upper-80s to near 90 degrees or better in spots.

Sunday looks a little bit more interesting in terms of rain chances. I think most of us will see no rain, but there will be some neighborhoods that will host a shower or storm on Sunday. We’ll go from near 70 in the morning into the mid-80s, if not upper-80s by afternoon. I’d expect the shower chances and some additional clouds to hold temperatures down a degree or two relative to Saturday though.

Monday

Alright, our much ballyhooed front is still expected to arrive here in Houston on Monday. It’s still a bit too early to get too cute on timing, but I would expect the best chance of storms later in the day or evening, followed by gradual clearing late Monday night or early Tuesday. Clouds, showers, and the front should combine to keep our temperatures from warming much beyond the upper-70s on Monday.

Rain totals are likely to vary, and because of the relatively progressive nature of the front, we will probably see a half-inch to three-quarters of an inch or less in most areas. This will certainly help take the edge off a bit given recent dryness, but it will do little to actually dent the burgeoning drought in our area.

Rest of next week

The Tuesday through Thursday period next week is being delivered by Yordan Álvarez, because it’s a home run. Expect three days of sunshine, low humidity, and cool, crisp autumn air. Highs will be in the low-70s, cooler perhaps on Wednesday and warmer on Thursday. Morning lows? Yeah, we have a shot at 40s.

Expect 50s area-wide next Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday mornings. Much of the area will probably be in the 40s on Wednesday and Thursday morning. Beyond that, we’re probably looking at a warm up next weekend into the week of the 24th. More on that next week.

Since September 1st, Houston has registered a mere three-quarters of an inch of rain, which is the driest start to meteorological fall (September-November) since 1953 (0.47″). More recently, 1992 only saw 1.08″ and the drought-ridden 2011 only saw 1.28″ of rain in that same time period. It’s the fifth driest start to autumn on record.

As you’d expect, with yesterday’s drought monitor update, coverage of drought conditions in the Houston area increased by over 30 percent week over week. We need rain. October is normally our second wettest month of the year (trailing only July). We average over 5 inches of rain in a typical October. Hopefully we are able to cash in on some rain chances next week. Otherwise, watch for drought coverage to expand even more in the days ahead.

Today

No rain in the meantime. Houston officially hit 90 degrees on Thursday, and we’ll feel a touch hotter today. Look for low 90s and a bit of humidity. Clouds will mix with some sun and haze otherwise. Pollen remains painfully high due to ragweed, and air quality will remain on the poor side in the morning via smog and in the late day via ground ozone.

Weekend

Saturday looks fairly similar to Friday in most aspects. Morning lows may be a touch warmer due to clouds. Daytime high temperatures may be a couple degrees cooler, but we’ll see a good deal of sunshine emerge. Subtly, a weak front, which crosses the area later Friday, will start to usher in a reinforcing shot of dry air for the weekend days. We should notice a slightly more pleasant morning on Sunday with lower humidity during the day, despite highs in the still in the mid or upper-80s.

Aside from it being a bit warmer than usual, all weekend plans should be fine.

Early next week

Monday looks a lot like Sunday and Tuesday a lot like Friday. Does that make sense? Still pleasant but warm Monday and then warmer and a little more humid on Tuesday.

Mid to late next week

On Wednesday, it appears we actually get a legitimately strong surge of humidity into the area, which will make it feel more like late summer. Wednesday and Thursday seem unlikely candidates for “comfortable” weather. Look for upper-80s by day and 70s by night. Beyond that, there are questions as to the timing and strength of a cold front and how much moisture it will offer. That will determine the extent of our rain chances for next week. While I’m hopeful for some rain, this is not likely to be the drought-denter we are looking for.

Tropics

Here in Houston, we have no concerns. We have gotten some questions about the Caribbean disturbance, which is now Tropical Depression 13. The official forecast for TD 13 brings it due west across the Caribbean into Central America, specifically Nicaragua by the end of the weekend as a hurricane.

Thankfully, this is moving quickly and is abnormally far south, so hopefully that limits its intensity upside and subsequent impacts to Central America. But for those of you traveling to Cancun or Cozumel this weekend, you’ll be fine. Those of you with interests in other Central American nations will want to monitor this storm’s progress. The next name on the list is Julia.

We are waking up to our coolest morning of the season so far today, with Bush Airport registering in the mid-50s. Rural portions of Montgomery County and between Houston and Beaumont in Liberty and Jefferson Counties are even in the 40s this morning.

We will continue this delightful stretch of weather into and through this weekend. So, if you’re free on Sunday, come celebrate with myself, Eric, and Maria (along with Dwight and Lee!) at the Houston Botanic Garden for our Fall Day!

If you’ll be attending, we’d love if you could RSVP here if you wish. Thanks as always for your support, and we look forward to saying hello!

Today

Abundant sunshine and pleasant. Highs in the low to mid-80s. That’s it. We’ll also begin to see offshore waters calm down a bit as Ian’s distant impacts wind down. Winds should be 5 to 15 mph.

Weekend

We should see wall to wall sunshine this weekend. Look for highs in the mid-80s on Saturday, possibly creeping into the upper-80s by Sunday afternoon.

Morning lows will be mostly in the 50s tomorrow and upper-50s to low-60s on Sunday morning.

Early next week

We’ll continue to see sunshine next week, but I am thinking there will be more high clouds to speak of, perhaps turning us mostly cloudy at times. A Pacific hurricane and some more upper-level moisture streaming across Mexico will likely spoil the blue skies. Unfortunately this won’t come with any beneficial rain it would seem, with most of it falling west of Texas.

In addition, we’ll slowly warm back up with highs in the upper-80s to low-90s and morning lows generally in the mid-60s.

Late next week

High pressure building across the Gulf from the Atlantic will allow us to warm up even a bit more later next week. Look for more 90s than 80s for a couple days I think. Our next front *may* get here next weekend, but it looks dry and weak right now, so I’m not optimistic that the dry weather and a late summer swoon will end. We shall see.

Tropics

As recovery efforts continue across Florida, Ian is approaching the coast of South Carolina this morning. It should make landfall later today likely near Georgetown, SC, between Charleston and Myrtle Beach. Ian reintensified into a hurricane yesterday as it moved offshore. It currently has a wide swath of tropical storm force winds and a small area of 75 to 85 mph winds near the center.

Notice how much wider the wind swath (orange) is than the cone (white) in the image above. It’s an important lesson in the limitations of the cone, as impacts can extend well outside the width of the cone. Whatever the case, here’s hoping Ian’s second act underachieves on the Carolina coast today and tomorrow.