Matt Lanza

Good afternoon. Round one of rainfall this morning was mostly uneventful, with the notable exception of the Deer Park area, which received over 4 inches of rain, much of which fell in an hour or so.

Armand Bayou is the one bayou worth watching closest as we head into this evening. It is running near bankfull after the earlier rains, and we could see some portions of the bayou come out of banks with round 2 in a couple hours. Please stay vigilant in that area.

We remain in a Stage 1 Flood Alert, as Eric has noted, and the NWS has just issued a Flood Watch for the entire metro area through Saturday in anticipation of several more rounds of rainfall.

That next round is on the way as of 1:30 PM.

This cluster of rain will produce thunder, lightning, some gusty winds, and very heavy downpours. Additional rains of 1 to 3 inches are possible as this band passes through between now and 4 or 5 PM this evening. Please use caution if you have to travel between now and then, and if you can postpone travel a couple hours to avoid the worst of the rain, that may be prudent. Street flooding is likely in spots, hence our stage 1 alert. And as noted above, we’ll be monitoring the Armand Bayou watershed in particular for any worse issues. We are hopeful that the heaviest of this rain will pass north of the harder hit areas in Deer Park this morning.

The good news is that things do settle down a bit tonight. Additional scattered showers and storms are likely once this wave passes through, and those will continue through about Midnight, but the intensity and coverage should be less than this afternoon. Overnight looks quiet with just some scattered showers possible.

Additional showers and storms are likely tomorrow and especially in the first half of Saturday. We’ll update on those once we get today’s platter digested.

A reminder: We offer our posts in Spanish at Tiempo Ciudad Espacial! If you yourself prefer reading in Spanish or have friends and family that would enjoy our site more in Spanish, please spread the word! As always, a thank you to Maria Sotolongo for always being on top of things for that site.

Fundraiser

As I sit here writing this on Thanksgiving Day, I am reminded of how thankful I am for our readers. We know you feel likewise about us, and for your trust, support, and loyalty, we are grateful! If you would like to support us in our annual fundraiser, it will continue through this weekend. You can click here to buy items. And if you don’t wish to purchase merchandise and just want make a contribution, click here and check the box that says “I’d like to make a donation only.”

Eric or myself will have another update tonight if necessary, and certainly by tomorrow morning. Thank you, and have a safe Thanksgiving.

Yesterday didn’t disappoint from a forecast perspective. It pretty much went as expected. Rain totals ranged from around a half-inch to inch in Houston to around an inch and a half near the coast.

Your mileage may vary this morning, but the sun is out in force in my backyard, and it looks like many of us are enjoying a pleasant, albeit chilly morning! We will cling to this for a few hours before things begin to change. Again.

Fundraiser

We’re under 10 days left in our annual fundraiser, your one opportunity to directly support the site each year! The response has been amazing so far, and we are grateful to you all. You can click here to buy items. And if you don’t wish to purchase merchandise and just want make a contribution, click here and check the box that says “I’d like to make a donation only.” Thank you all so much!

Today and Monday

With many areas seeing sunshine this morning, it seems like it will be a nice front half of the day. As we go into the afternoon, clouds will begin to increase again. We are already seeing that creep into portions of Fort Bend, Wharton, and Brazoria Counties. Showers may begin to break out later today southwest of Houston. We should manage 50 to 55 or so this afternoon before temperatures are capped by increasing clouds. Areas southwest of Houston where clouds are already rolling in may not get above 50 degrees.

Rain will break out everywhere tonight. Periods of rain will be with us into much of Monday. The highest totals from this round may be north of Houston. That said, this rain looks as if it will be a little more sporadic in nature, so it may be truly “periods” of rain.

Rain showers should begin to taper off Monday evening and Tuesday morning.

Monday looks a lot like Saturday temperature-wise, with mid to upper-40s for most places at best.

Tuesday into the weekend

I think we’re beginning to get some decent clarity on this upcoming week. There are still questions about details regarding Thanksgiving itself, but our confidence is increasing for Wednesday and Friday.

Tuesday: Clouds, some sun, a shower possible. Morning lows 40s, daytime highs near 60.

Wednesday: Clouds, some sun, a passing shower possible. Morning lows upper-40s to near 50, daytime highs low or mid-60s.

Travel: We do not see any meaningful travel issues on Wednesday in Texas, Oklahoma, or Louisiana. Most major airport hubs look fine as well. Atlanta, Chicago, New York, DC, LA all look to be without major issues.

Thanksgiving Day: Clouds with a period of showers and storms possible. Exactly when & where is still TBD. Clearing late. Morning lows 50s, daytime highs upper-60s to near 70 degrees.

Friday: Sunny! Breezy to windy, however. Morning lows 40s, daytime highs around 60 degrees.

Eric will have a full update on things for you Monday. Go Texans!

Good Saturday morning to you! You don’t need to be an expert on meteorology to look at the below radar image from 7:45 Saturday morning to know it’s probably going to be raining for awhile.

Rain will be with us all day today. We should see the rain become more intermittent or taper off after sunset tonight, but it may not clear out a ton before Sunday morning.

It’s in the 40s in most places in and around Houston this morning. Temperatures should refrain from budging much today, so expect the chill to remain.

In addition to the rain and the chill, it will be breezy today. Inland areas will experience 15 to 25 mph wind gusts today. Areas along the Gulf or bays may even see some 30 to 40 mph wind gusts. Coastal locations have wind advisories, gale warnings (offshore), and small craft advisories (bays) all posted for today and tonight.

All in all, just a Southeast Texas winter type day today.

Sunday & Monday

Any lingering light rain or showers should taper off before sunrise Sunday. If we are lucky, we’ll be able to sneak in a few hours of sunshine tomorrow before clouds thicken back up. Showers could begin to break out again south and west of Houston by mid-afternoon. Those will overspread the area Sunday night and Monday before tapering off Monday night. Some of this rain could be just a little heavier at times than what we see today. Temperatures will be in the low-50s on Sunday, 40s Sunday night, and probably struggling to get to 50 on Monday.

The farther north of Houston you are, the more likely you end up closer to a half-inch of rain. The farther south of Houston, the closer to an inch or more between today’s rain and Monday’s rain.

Tuesday through Friday

Some good news today: It appears that rain chances may be a little lower on Thursday. They certainly won’t be zero, and it seems likely that we see at least a period of rain at some point Wednesday night through Thursday. But it may be in a narrow window. Here is our updated thinking today:

Tuesday: Clouds, some sun, a shower possible. Morning lows 40s, daytime highs near 60.

Wednesday: Clouds, some sun, a passing shower possible. Morning lows upper-40s to near 50, daytime highs low-60s. (A note that travel conditions on Wednesday look decent across most of Texas and Louisiana)

Thanksgiving Day: Clouds with a period of showers and storms possible. Clearing late. Morning lows 50s, daytime highs upper-60s to near 70 degrees.

Friday: Sunny! Breezy to windy, however. Morning lows 40s, daytime highs around 60 degrees.

Fundraiser

Another thank you to all who have contributed to our annual fundraiser! It continues. You can click here to buy items. And if you don’t wish to purchase merchandise and just want make a contribution, click here and check the box that says “I’d like to make a donation only.” We are grateful for your support. Thank you!

An abnormally cool stretch of mid-November weather continues. We’ve already had more sub-60 degree days this week than all of last November and December combined. Of course, given how warm last year was, that isn’t saying much. But still. We have at least a few more days of sub-60 weather before things change somewhat.

Fundraiser

Thank you again to all who have contributed to our annual fundraiser! We are truly grateful, especially in what has been a pretty uneventful year (thank goodness). You can click here to buy items. And if you don’t wish to purchase merchandise and just want make a contribution, click here and check the box that says “I’d like to make a donation only.” Your support literally helps keep the site running, so thank you so much!

Today

Look for clouds to thicken up as the day progresses. We should begin to see sprinkles or light showers break out from southwest to northeast across the region. Initially, these may struggle to reach the ground due to dry air, but as we get closer to evening, I suspect we’ll get more reports of light rain or sprinkles. Temperatures should remain mired in the 50s today.

Saturday

Welp. Tomorrow may be a front-runner for most miserable day of the year.

It’s a pretty simple forecast: Periods of rain, steady at times (especially south of Houston). Cloudy. Cold. Breezy. Temperatures will stay stuck in the 40s all day. Look for breezy conditions with winds of 15 to 25 mph at times, stronger over the water or near the coast. Just really raw, cold, and quite nasty for Houston.

Rain totals will average a half-inch to inch and a half south of Highway-105. Some places may see a bit more, especially nearer to the coast. Others to the north may see a bit less. But everyone sees at least some rain tonight and tomorrow.

Rain should taper off from west to east overnight into very early Sunday morning.

Sunday

Despite Saturday’s gloom, I am optimistic that we should break out into at least a little sunshine on Sunday. It still won’t be a wonderful day, but compared to Saturday it will seem glorious. We should manage lower-50s. A few showers could break out late in the day west of Houston.

Monday

As of now, expect mainly cloudy skies on Monday with scattered showers or some rain. We’ll have to see if this trends more toward a wetter period like Saturday has done. For now, we’ll just call it scattered showers and update you this weekend. One thing we are confident it will be? Chilly. Again. Look for low-50s, maybe mid-50s if were lucky or upper-40s if we’re unlucky.

Tuesday and beyond

We continue to struggle with details regarding the Thanksgiving period. What we know is that there will likely be quiet weather on Tuesday with building rain chances Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should gradually sneak back above 60 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday, with morning lows in the 40s early, warming into the 50s and 60s late.

What we don’t know is exactly when it will rain Wednesday through Friday. Our modeling continues to struggle a lot with what may be a pretty significant storm across the Eastern U.S. One school of thought is for a slower moving, stronger storm that would bring thunderstorms and possible severe weather to Texas and Louisiana. That option seems to be fading some. Another slightly more likely possibility is for a quicker moving, weaker system with just a few showers and storms. Here’s the best thinking right now:

Tuesday: Clouds, some sun, a shower possible. Morning lows 40s, daytime highs near 60.

Wednesday: Clouds, some sun, a few showers or sprinkles, especially south and west. Morning lows 50s, daytime highs mid to upper-60s.

Thanksgiving Day: Clouds with a period of showers and storms possible. Morning lows 50s to 60s, daytime highs upper-60s.

Friday: Sun & clouds. Maybe a shower. Morning lows 50s or 40s, daytime highs low-60s.

That’s what we can give you for now. We will keep you posted this weekend with a daily morning update on the forecast both tomorrow and Sunday!