Matt Lanza

Okay, campers, rise and shine, and don’t forget your booties ’cause it’s cooooold out there today! Unlike 1993’s “Groundhog Day,” this will soon be a distant memory as we warm up heading into next week. But in the meantime, it is our coldest morning since February of 2021. Houston has so far bottomed out at 16°, and the coldest reading I can find as of 6:30 AM is 10° up in New Waverly. I also saw an 11 just outside Tomball. Whatever the case, it’s about 10 to 20 degrees in most places this morning, and it’s cold.

The wind isn’t helping. We continue to see wind gusts up as high as 33 mph in Houston at Hobby Airport and 39 mph in Galveston. The combination of wind and cold makes it feel about as brutal as it can realistically get here in Houston. Wind chills are currently 5° in Galveston, 3° at Bush Airport, 1° at Hobby Airport, and -4° in Conroe.

So before you go out and do that last minute Christmas shopping, please make sure you are adequately dressed. This type of cold can be dangerous, especially for those of us in Texas that are simply not used to temperatures at these levels.

The good news is that roads should be all clear and passable, as we saw no ice or snow with the front yesterday. Travel anywhere across Texas is fine today. If you are flying, please go with a lot of patience. Flights to Chicago are likely to be delayed. Milwaukee’s airport is currently closed. All of these issues will cascade through the system, so flight delays and cancellations are possible anywhere.

Some good news is that ERCOT is in fine shape this morning. As of this writing, Texans are using about 73,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity, and the grid has nearly 85,000 MW available. According to their site, things do get a little tighter looking this evening, as wind falls off versus where it was last night and this morning. As of now, we don’t foresee any serious issues, but given that they failed to forecast the amplitude of the energy demand last night and this morning (they missed by several thousand megawatts), it is worth monitoring later today.

Centerpoint is reporting just shy of 20,000 customers without power this morning. This is due to localized outages from tree branches or power lines being impacted by the strong winds in our area. That number should improve through the day as winds ease up.

Friday

The good news is that the sun will help make it feel just a little less uncomfortable today. Still, expect high temperatures barely scraping 30 degrees in most places. The freeze continues.

Winds will remain blustery today, with gusts of 20 mph inland and 30 mph at the coast. So wind chills will remain a factor all day today as well.

Tonight & Saturday

Most of our attention has been focused on this morning’s temperatures because they were to be the coldest of this event. But tonight will be pretty rough as well. Thankfully, we will see less wind, but we will still likely have a hard freeze almost everywhere, so keep all protective measures for pipes, plants, people, pets, and livestock in place. Some passing cloud cover may prevent temperatures from dropping as far as they did last night and this morning, but it will still be plenty cold.

Saturday should end up being a slightly nicer day. Expect only a light breeze, more sunshine, and temperatures warming above freezing and deep into the 30s.

Sunday & Monday

Christmas Day will be another chilly one, but we’ll be gradually eating away at the cold. Only outlying areas really have a risk for a significant hard freeze Sunday morning, while most of Houston proper, coastal areas, and some of the denser suburbs will probably “only” get to the mid-20s overnight. We’ll turn things up into the 40s on Christmas afternoon.

We may get a weak reinforcing front on Monday. Still, we’ll likely get above 50 degrees Monday afternoon. We’ll have another chilly night Monday night into Tuesday with 30s in most spots and perhaps a few high 20s in outlying areas.

Rest of next week

Tuesday will see highs in the 50s or low-60s, Wednesday in the 60s or low-70s, and Thursday into the 70s. In fact, we’ll probably see highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 50s or 60s straight through New Years weekend. The weather may turn more unsettled late next week as well, but details on that are minimal this far out. We’ll tackle that next week.

Good afternoon. Eric and I felt it was a good idea to post an update today on the growing potential that a hard freeze will impact Houston later this upcoming week. Since yesterday, there have been a handful of changes. I will admit that the behavior of yesterday’s front (somewhat stronger and faster than expected) factored into some of this thinking. Sometimes we refer to this as “recency bias,” but truthfully, sometimes the atmosphere can offer up some hints to help us as forecasters.

Bottom line: Temperatures are going to absolutely plummet Thursday afternoon, likely from the 60s or 70s into the 30s over the course of about 4 to 6 hours. We will drop below freezing Thursday afternoon or evening and may not get back up above freezing until Saturday. Overnight lows Thursday night into Friday will likely drop into the teens or low-20s for the city of Houston and most surrounding areas away from the immediate coast. In addition, potent northerly winds will create dangerous wind chill values in the single digits from Thursday evening through Friday morning. We do not expect any snow or ice at this time, a key difference from February 2021, in addition to the intensity and duration of cold.

Preparedness

A few thoughts on preparedness for this event. The duration of this cold, the lack of snow and ice, and the intensity of the cold statewide will still lag February 2021, so at this point, we’ll take ERCOT at their word that grid conditions should be manageable. Still, having a winter preparedness kit at the ready is never a bad idea.

This will be a painful freeze for plants, especially given the wind that will accompany the cold. Make every effort to ensure that any tropical plants are protected and as secure as possible, as the wind will be enough to dismantle any weak, unsecured covering.

If you have one, make sure your irrigation system is protected, drained, and turned off.

If you are leaving town late this week, it would be a good idea to consider turning off the main water supply to your home before you go out of an abundance of caution.

Any winterization you can do this weekend or before you leave town is good and will help. If we end up 5 degrees warmer than forecast, great. Please don’t forget pets, livestock, and any folks you know that are extra vulnerable to cold.

Again, this is different than February 2021’s event and should not be quite as bad, but it will be able to cause problems of its own.

Sunday through Wednesday

The forecast is mostly unchanged from yesterday. We expect widespread rain Monday and lingering showers into Tuesday morning. Wednesday should be fine.

Thursday and Friday

The exact timing of the cold front is impossible to pin down right now. Most models point to late afternoon, and given the potential “stronger, faster” behavior of the front, I would lean toward late morning or midday in Houston proper, sooner north and west, later south and east. While we cannot say exactly what the temperature drop will be behind the front, it easily looks to be 30 to 40 degrees colder over a very short period of time. If you are working Thursday, be prepared for a completely different kind of weather when you leave work than when you go to work.

The good news is that this looks like a dry front, so we do not expect rain, snow, or ice. That helps differentiate this a lot from February 2021, when it was impossible to even travel due to ice and snow.

The bad news is that this will be accompanied by wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph or even stronger. That, plus the combination of plunging temperatures will make Thursday night and Friday morning dangerously cold outdoors. Look for lows in the upper teens to low-20s. We could nudge things up or down from here as we get new data in the coming days.

The good news is that Friday should be sunny. The bad news is that we may be lucky to reach 32 degrees. The sun will surely help matters on Friday, but it will be deceptive and remain very, very cold and breezy through the day. Another night in the 20s seems likely Friday night into Saturday morning. Some models do show high clouds streaming through, which could help keep temps up a bit for night two of the freeze, but it’s too soon to bank on that.

Next weekend

After another cold morning Saturday, we should expect to rise above freezing Saturday afternoon (currently thinking about 35-40 degrees). Lows in the 20s will again be possible Saturday night, though not as cold as Thursday and Friday nights. Sunday should see highs back in the 40s.

It’s too soon to completely rule out the possibility of a system Sunday or Monday that could bring some wintry precipitation to the area, but I will be honest and tell you that our already low odds have dropped since yesterday and Thursday. Alas, despite the cold, as of now we think travel across Texas will be fine through the holiday weekend. We will share more about weather across Texas for the holiday weekend as we get closer. Eric will have the latest on our forecast tomorrow.

Well, we made it to Friday again. The weather looks quiet this weekend for the most part. Next week is another matter. The main headlines today:

• A few showers this evening or overnight before a nice weekend.
• Widespread rain on Monday.
• Strong cold arrives Thursday or Friday, but just how cold it gets remains elusive. A freeze is likely for most of the area, with a hard freeze becoming possible on at least one night.
• While we will continue to watch things closely, we do not believe the upcoming cold will rival what we saw in 2021 in terms of intensity, duration, or impacts.

Connect with us!

Before we get into the forecast, I wanted to share that as of Wednesday, Space City Weather is now available in Apple News! So if you are an Apple News reader, you can search for us there or just tap here to get to our landing spot in the app where you can follow us. Obviously, we’d prefer you come right to the site or download our own app, but we’re making an effort to reach people where they are and maybe grab a few new eyeballs in the process.

Don’t forget to share with any Spanish speaking friends or family that we have Maria Sotolongo on the team using her meteorological knowledge and bilingual skills to cross-post our updates in Spanish at Tiempo Ciudad Espacial and on social media! She does great work, and we want that area of our site to continue to grow.

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Today

Alright, on to weather, and it’s a fine, albeit cool morning across the area. Most of us will see sunshine this morning, but look for clouds to roll in as the day progresses. This is ahead of a cold front to reinforce the dry, cool air over the region. Yes, we could see a few showers pop up along the front late this afternoon as it passes through, but I suspect any rain would be brief, and many of us will see nothing at all. High temperatures will make it into the mid-60s. Winds will kick up a bit out of the north behind the front.

Weekend

Saturday will probably start off with some clouds. There could even be a few lingering showers south of Houston, along the coast and down toward Matagorda Bay. I can’t promise that we’ll turn sunny in the afternoon, but the data suggests we gradually will. So hopefully it will be a day of decreasing clouds. It will be cooler and breezier Saturday, with highs in the low-50s and a gusty north wind (especially over the bays and Gulf).

We’ll have what should be our coldest night of this current stretch so far on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Look for 30s in most spots, with low-30s in far outlying areas and notorious cold spots like Conroe.

Sunday itself should be generally sunny and continued cool, though with less wind. High temperatures should reach into the mid or upper-50s. There could be an influx of clouds during the afternoon, especially south of I-10.

Monday

Monday continues to look like a wet day. Expect off and on rain, sometimes steady to heavy in spots. It will add up to an inch or so across most of the region.

There will be a bit of a spread in temperature on Monday. Warm air is going to try to surge off the Gulf, so coastal areas could poke up above 60 degrees. Inland areas should stay mainly in the 50s, which will feel very damp with the increasing humidity in addition to the actual rain.

Tuesday & Wednesday

The midweek period does not look too bad, so if you’re out getting last minute gifts, it should be fine, aside from all the other people doing the exact same thing. We may have a few lingering showers on Tuesday, along with plenty of clouds. Highs will be in the 50s to perhaps near 60 or so. Morning lows will be around 50 degrees or in the upper-40s.

For Wednesday, I would anticipate some sunshine and probably another pleasant winter’s day with highs in the upper-50s after a morning of 40s.

Late next week/Arctic outbreak

Alright, so we’ve all been talking about this cold coming. And potentially snow! We know that has folks a little uneasy.

Bottom line: We expect at least a couple nights of freezing temperatures late next week, with an increasing risk of at least one night of a hard freeze (< 25°) in Houston. While we will continue to watch this forecast very closely, we do not believe that the intensity, duration, or impacts of the cold will rival what we saw in 2021, which saw mid or low teens for lows. Snow odds are much lower, but not quite zero.

First, the temperatures. Given the many distractions this time of year, and given that you have had over a week’s notice that this a freeze was possible, it is probably a good idea to take a moment this weekend to prepare your home for a potential hard freeze. Not a February 2021 type event. But a couple nights in the 20s and maybe a night in the teens outside the city.

The Texas Tribune published an article with a bunch of winter weather tips last year. Our advice is to use this as a base and take care of as much of the low hanging fruit as you can right now. Irrigation systems, maybe some very sensitive plants, etc.

In terms of specifics, what we’re able to say with some confidence is that “at least” a freeze is likely across the entire area on “at least” a couple nights, and a hard freeze (temps below 25°) is becoming increasingly likely on at least one night next week, probably Thursday night into Friday.

Whether this goes from a more typical once every few year event to something more problematic is still a question. While it’s unlikely that we will get into some more troublesome cold, it would be foolish of us to completely rule it out. The big thing I’m seeing right now is that daytime temperatures are expected to get well above freezing each day, something we did not see in 2021. We will continue to monitor this closely, but given the current low odds of temperatures in the teens and the expectation of above freezing daytimes, we do not believe this will rival 2021’s situation in terms of impacts.

As far as snow? Here is the European model’s interpretation of the chances we get an inch of snow next weekend. That’s about 10 percent. High for Houston, but not exactly anything I’d take Mattress Mack to Louisiana to bet on.

That’s where we are right now. If we have any new insights to share, you’ll find a post from us this weekend. Meanwhile, enjoy the weekend!

We managed our 4th straight 80 degree day yesterday in Houston, a feat last achieved in December of 2021. So, yay. I suppose. Congrats to those of you who like warm weather year-round. It’s your moment right now. Enjoy it because changes are coming next week, and we almost certainly have an end in sight to this warm pattern.

Today

We expect a mostly similar day today to how recent days have been: Clouds, sun, fog in spots, especially near the coast, and highs around 80 or so. If Houston hits 80° again today, it will be only the fourth time we have had five consecutive 80 degree days in December, all of them coming since 1998.

But today will also feature at least a chance of a few passing showers this afternoon. Most folks won’t see much of anything, but a few isolated pockets of rain are likely around the area.

Saturday & Sunday

We’ll have another warm night, with lows in the 60s and areas of fog, especially close to the coast. So Saturday may start a bit dreary, then perk up some. Highs will be in the 70s to near 80. Shower chances will once again arrive by late afternoon. Those chances will actually continue well into the evening or overnight hours. Lingering showers will be around on Sunday morning before things should subside a bit later in the day.

Again, not everyone will see rain, but some will see a fair bit of it Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Some isolated stronger thunderstorms are also possible. We’ll do lows in the 60s again Saturday night into Sunday morning, followed up by highs in the 70s on Sunday. It’s possible that on Sunday folks northwest of Houston see temperatures drop into the 60s for a time as the cold front will make one failed attempt at pushing through. For Houston and points south and east, the front making it through on Sunday is unlikely at this time.

Monday & Tuesday

We will start next week on a mostly calm note, with clouds, sun, fog, and an isolated shower for Monday. We may actually turn a bit warmer, more humid, and noticeably breezy on Monday as well, as a strong storm system begins to organize in the lee of the Rockies. A typical warm pattern setup.

That storm really cranks on Tuesday over the Plains which should drag a cold front through Houston on Tuesday night. Tuesday will be our last real warm day, with morning lows perhaps near 70 and daytime highs again near 80 degrees. Expect at least a few showers or storms with the front on Tuesday evening, but it’s too soon to say how robust that will look just yet.

Beyond Tuesday

At this point we are not expecting any real meaningful weather heading toward late next week. In fact, it looks pretty nice for pre-Christmas weather. We should see a decent amount of sunshine, highs in the 50s to near 60 and lows in the 30s or 40s. We may get a windy day in here Thursday or Friday with a reinforcing shot of colder air.

Heading toward Christmas week there is a lot of uncertainty within weather modeling. We will probably get some kind of warm up for early on the week of Christmas, followed by a drop in temps later in the week. But details and exact timing and intensity are very uncertain at this time. Suffice to say, it would be wise to keep both spring and winter attire at the ready heading into the week of the 19th.