Matt Lanza

As we prepare to flip the calendar to May, the weather will fast forward a few weeks, as forecast highs near 90 degrees, more commonplace for late May, become a feature in the days ahead.

We’ll start today with a drought update. You probably assumed that this week’s impressive rains acted to relieve the drought some in our area, and you would be correct. Coverage of drought in the Houston area dropped about 15 percent versus a week ago. We’ll need another couple rounds of storms in the next couple weeks to keep that improvement going.

Will we get that? I’m not sure, truthfully. The pattern will support active weather near our region, but it may miss us to the north and east more often than not, so we’ll have to see. This could be a situation where things don’t change much north of Houston but perhaps they get worse south of Houston. That brings us to the forecast.

Today

Sun and clouds will mix for us today, and we’ll see temperatures and humidity both nudge higher versus yesterday. We should do mid to upper-80s for highs this afternoon.

Weekend

This weekend will see a cold front drop south into the extreme northern fringe of our region tomorrow. We expect it will stall out north of Huntsville, but it may come close enough to deliver at least a few showers into the northern third of the Houston area tomorrow afternoon. The best chance would be outside the Beltway to the north; think Conroe, Cleveland, Magnolia.

An additional slight chance of showers would be in play on Sunday as well, again mostly north or perhaps east of the area. We don’t believe you’ll need to alter any weekend plans, but just be prepared in case a stray shower or downpour passes by.

It will be firmly like mid-May this weekend with lows in the 70s and highs in the mid to upper-80s.

For those of you riding in the MS 150 this weekend, day 1 will feature those hot temperatures but also a south wind. It will be consistent along the length of the ride from Houston through La Grange, sustained around 5 to 10 mph, with periodic gusts closer to 20 mph.

Day 2 will be a little breezier. While temperatures and humidity should be about on par with Saturday, the wind will shift to more of a southeasterly breeze. It will be more like 10 to 15 mph, with more frequent 20 mph gusts.

It should never be a headwind, but it may be a bit annoying at times. Keep an eye out for a few showers, especially on day 2, but it should hopefully be nothing that causes any problems. Whatever the case, good luck to all those participating!

Early next week

The first part of next week should be fairly similar to the weekend: Clouds, sun, hot temperatures, high humidity, and a very slight chance of a few showers. Expect lows in the 70s and highs well into the 80s, with an outside shot at 90 degrees in spots, along with a noticeable south or southeast wind, gusting to 20 mph or so.

Later next week

The late week question revolves around whether or not we get a cold front into our area. Right now, that seems to be a low probability thought. The front should probably hold out until the weekend, and even if it gets here, any relief would be brief. Outside of that, we will keep hot temperatures, high humidity, and a low-end rain chance each day heading toward next weekend. We’ll refine this more on Monday.

As occurs each week, the U.S. Drought Monitor updated their drought assessment yesterday. Texas continues to see pretty difficult drought conditions overall, however that’s not so much the case locally.

While over 87 percent of the state is classified in drought conditions, only about 57 percent of the Houston area qualifies for drought at this time. Our most recent serious drought occurred in 2011. It may be somewhat comforting to know that during this week in 2011, the entire state was in drought, with much of the Houston area in D4, or “exceptional” drought. At this point, while it may be tempting to compare current conditions to 2011 across Texas, that is not quite an accurate assessment, certainly locally.

Precipitation over the next few weeks is not going to be absent from Texas, so we’ll see if it’s enough to start denting this drought before it gets too troublesome. But if your travels do take you to central or western Texas, just be aware that the ground there will be much drier than usual and fire risk higher than usual.

Today

The week will close out with, you guessed it, wind. Look for yet another breezy day, with southeasterly winds of 15 to 25 mph. Any morning clouds should give way to sun, with high temperatures up into the 80s.

Saturday

More wind.

Look for another day of 15 to 25 mph winds, with higher gusts at times over the water. We will see a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures warming from the 70s into the 80s. Humidity will remain high.

Sunday

Look for mostly a rinse and repeat of Saturday, with wind perhaps checking in just a notch under Saturday.

One thing I haven’t yet mentioned: Rain. We don’t expect anything meaningful or widespread this weekend, but the chance of a passing shower or some patchy drizzle or sprinkles is not zero. So although it probably won’t rain on you this weekend, don’t be entirely shocked if it does for a short time.

Next week

As we continue our transition toward summer, the cold fronts pack less and less punch in terms of temperatures. The cold front we are expecting later Monday or Tuesday morning should follow that rule as well. Expect scattered showers or a chance of storms, especially north and west of Houston on Monday with morning lows in the 70s warming to highs in the 80s. Those storms should move into the Houston area Monday evening or night, assuming they can survive the trip. There are still some questions as to how much in the way of storms we will see.

Whatever the case, clearing should commence on Tuesday with slightly cooler and less humid weather arriving early. Perhaps we’ll see lows in the 60s with highs in the lower 80s. You’ll probably notice the more comfortable weather mostly on Tuesday night into Wednesday when some outlying areas drop back into the 50s.

That will be nice, but it will be short-lived. Humidity should come surging back in late next week, restoring our typical mid-spring pattern. For those of you planning to get back out for MS 150 next weekend, it looks as if you’ll have very warm, humid weather, along with southerly winds. For day 1, it won’t be a true tailwind per se (certainly if you’re starting from Austin), but it will definitely be coming off the Gulf as it stands right now. The day 2 trek from La Grange to Kyle Field should have a pretty stout tailwind. More on this next week!

Good morning. The humidity has come surging back this morning. Whereas yesterday at this time we had a relative humidity of 64% and a dewpoint in the 40s, this morning sees relative humidity at 93% and a dewpoint into the mid-60s. The dry, pleasant weather was nice for a day. We’ll now begin a somewhat unsettled period of weather through Monday, though probably without any real serious issues.

Today

Clouds this morning may actually produce some drizzle or light rain showers a little later this morning before things attempt to clear out a bit this afternoon. Inland areas, mainly north of I-10 could see an isolated downpour or thunderstorm this afternoon with daytime heating. It’s likely that many of you will not see that today, however. Look for highs in the 80s or upper 70s if clouds stubbornly hold on. Winds won’t be too terrible, but look for a 5 to 15 mph southerly breeze today.

Saturday

Temperatures tonight get held up because of clouds and a warming air mass, so look for Saturday to begin with 70s in most of the area. That head start should allow us to easily push deep into the 80s to near 90 degrees tomorrow afternoon with a bit of sun after morning clouds.

A shower can’t be entirely ruled out but most areas will stay dry. South winds of 5 to 10 mph will provide minimal relief.

Easter Sunday

South of I-10, Sunday’s forecast is actually pretty straightforward. Look for morning clouds and some sun with temperatures in the higher 80s away from the water. Along and north of I-10, the forecast gets trickier. A cold front approaches Sunday but it struggles to get much past I-35, well west of us. But ahead of that front, showers and storms will kick off Sunday afternoon. The best chance for that will be near College Station, but the chances in and around Houston are not zero. Basically, if you have outdoor holiday plans, just be flexible and understand that, while not likely, rain will be possible for a time, especially north and west of Houston.

Outside of shower chances, we’ll see highs again well into the 80s, if not low-90s for inland spots with enough sunshine.

Monday and Tuesday

The cold front will eventually get into our part of Texas on Monday bringing a chance of showers and storms. Honestly, modeling doesn’t look too impressive in terms of storm chances in Houston, but we’ll definitely call for a slight chance. That front basically dies out once it passes us, but that will still allow for cooler temperatures and lower humidity Monday and especially Tuesday. We’ll probably see 80 or so on Monday, followed by 70s and a breeze on Tuesday, with morning lows in the 50s.

If you’re attending the Astros home opener on Monday evening, it should be turning a bit more pleasant with temperatures in the 70s pre-game and 60s during the game. I believe rain chances will dictate whether or not the roof is open, and we will know more about that on Monday itself.

Rest of next week

Humidity and warmer temperatures come flooding back in for the mid to late week period. Strong onshore winds may develop Wednesday. We’ll see a return of 80s by day, 60s or warmer by night, and shower chances. These shower chances look minor each day right now, but we’ll get a better handle on which days will carry higher rain risk by Monday or Tuesday.

Meanwhile, have a wonderful holiday weekend!

So, last Friday I noted how Houston’s pollen season had probably been in the process of peaking, slightly later than usual. The last two days laughed in the face of that comment and produced the highest tree pollen values I can find in the City of Houston’s pollen count archives (2013-2022), with values over 10,000 Wednesday and over 12,000 yesterday. Going back to 2013, there is not a remotely comparable day in Houston in terms of tree pollen, specifically oak pollen. The next closest value I can find is 6,440 on March 21, 2019. Keep in mind that pollen counts are not conducted on weekends and holidays, so there is missing data, but the odds of all the maximum days not showing up over 9 years of data is quite low.

So then, what is it? Why is this year so much worse than any recent year? There are two theories I have, neither of which I can definitively back up. The first is the drought over Texas. Since February 1st, we’ve had 3 days of rainfall over a quarter inch at Hobby Airport. Since 2000, we’ve averaged six of them. More on drought in a second, but in general rain does help wash some of this pollen away. The dryness, combined with the breezy conditions we’ve had, is just a brutal recipe right now. I’m also guessing that a lot of pollen from central Texas has found its way to Houston with those gusty winds too, as drought is much worse there.

My second theory is that the latest freeze in Houston since 1999 may also be playing a role here. We had a mid-March pair of freezing nights, and I’m wondering if that may have delayed the onset of the excessive pollen, meaning the oak pollen season is delayed. Normally we would be declining by now, but we may be at peak instead.

So my theory is that the dry and windy spring are making the season more extreme, and the later than usual freeze has made it peak later. I may be wrong here, and I would love to be corrected by a tree or pollen expert if so. Hopefully by this time next week, we’re discussing more manageable pollen levels.

Dry, dry, dry

Speaking of drought, the new drought monitor map came out yesterday, which shows that drought coverage in the Houston area inched up just a bit, primarily in Galveston, Chambers, and Brazoria Counties. Texas as a whole did just a bit better week over week.

Rainfall over the next two weeks looks to be near average in the Houston area and below average in the rest of Texas. Drought should hold or worsen statewide.

Red flag warnings are posted for today across all of southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. A red flag warning means that there is very high fire danger due to wind and low humidity levels. Dry brush and grass certainly is not helping.

Basically, use common sense today. Outdoor burning is discouraged. Don’t park on dry grass. Don’t discard cigarette butts out the car window. And if you see any sort of grass fire, report it right away before it can cause bigger problems. As of Thursday evening there were 48 active wildfires across Texas, according to the Texas Wildfire Incident Response System.

Weekend forecast

So that was a lengthy intro to today’s post! Why? There’s not much happening outside of that. Look for a sunny Friday, Saturday, and probably Sunday too. Winds will be gusty today with highs well into the 70s. Tomorrow should see lighter winds with morning lows in the 50s and daytime highs in the lower 80s. Sunday will see a shift to onshore, southerly winds and they could be strong at times, gusting up over 25 mph. Highs will be in the low 80s after morning lows in the low 60s. Humidity will start to become noticeable by later Sunday.

Next week

That onshore flow and building humidity will lead to more clouds than sun and perhaps a shower on Monday. We should still manage the low-80s, but morning lows will struggle to get below 70 degrees. Winds will be gusty again Monday also. Tuesday and Wednesday should see a chance of showers and thunderstorms, along with continued breezy conditions and warm, humid temperatures. We may or may not get a cold front through here later Wednesday or early Thursday, as modeling has been bouncing all over the place on that. If that happens, look for cooler, drier air for the end of next week. We’ll update you with the latest on Monday.