Matt Lanza

Well, here we are. As we’ve been discussing all week, a wet Labor Day Weekend is in the cards for the Houston area, as we continue to chip away at our drought and rainfall deficit all across Texas. Yesterday’s Drought Monitor report had mostly good news for Texas, with the most severe drought coverage losing about half its area, as well as improvements across the state too.

In our area, the only real coverage of extreme drought is west of Katy as of Tuesday, areas that have seen as much as 2 to 3 inches or so of rain since. Next week’s map should be even less ugly, as we expect multiple rounds of showers and storms across much of the southeastern third of Texas over the next few days.

Today

Much like yesterday, we should see some showers and storms pop up across the area during the afternoon, probably along the Highway 59 corridor after lunch and erratically expanding as the day progresses. Some areas will see nothing today, while others could quickly pick up an inch or two of heavy rain and see some ponding or street flooding. Highs will be near 90 degrees. Showers may linger for a couple hours after sunset before fading away.

Saturday and Sunday

With a weak cool front in our area this weekend and available moisture in the atmosphere running about 150 percent of normal, we have a very good recipe for numerous showers and thunderstorms and potentially heavy rainfall. If you have Saturday morning plans, you may be able to escape with minimal disruption, but after 9 or 10 AM, showers should begin to pop up from Houston and points south and east. The earlier you can accomplish things, the better. Storms will become more numerous in coverage on Saturday afternoon.

Stick a pin over downtown Houston. Areas south and east of that pin will likely see the most coverage of rain and storms. Coverage should be pretty healthy north and west of there as well, but it may be more scattered or intermittent.

For Sunday, look for a continuation of things. Showers and storms will blossom as the morning progresses and expand across much of the area. Sunday’s forecast is a bit trickier, however, in that the front may sag a bit farther south than Saturday. This could perhaps focus more of the rain farther south of I-10 and along the coast. We’ll update you this weekend on that.

Any storms this weekend will be capable of producing frequent lightning, brief strong wind gusts, and 2 to 3 inches of rain in an hour or a bit more. This will likely lead to occasional areas of street flooding anywhere in the Houston area or along the coast. For now, no flood watch or SCW flood alert is posted, but we will be monitoring things this weekend to see if that needs to change. Bottom line: Assume that if you’re under torrential rain, it will stay there a bit and could flood the streets for a time.

We are expecting about 1 to 3 inches of rainfall through Monday morning across the area. Important: On average. Some places will almost certainly see less, while others could easily see 4 to 6 inches of rain or even a bit more, depending on exactly how things setup. At this time, we expect those bullseye areas to be relatively small geographically, but we are not sure exactly where those will occur.

Clouds and showers will keep temperatures down this weekend, and at best we will probably see mid-80s for highs and 70s for lows.

Labor Day

If it does not happen on Sunday, the better support for storms should shift south of Houston on Monday, but I still do think we’ll have some rainy periods to contend with even in the city and north. I wouldn’t postpone outdoor plans, however. We’ll keep you posted this weekend. High temperatures should be mid to upper-80s, with lows in the 70s.

Rest of next week

While no days look to be washouts, we will probably deal with daily showers and storms most of the rest of next week. Temperatures should be fairly steady in the upper-80s to low-90s most days, with humid mornings in the 70s.

Tropics

The good news: We have no concerns in the Atlantic for Texas. Tropical Storm Danielle formed yesterday, and it is destined to become a hurricane later today. Naturally, it’s occurring right where we all expe—oh, way up in the far northern Atlantic Ocean. Okay then. None of the other waves being monitored in the Atlantic by the National Hurricane Center are expected to get into the Gulf.

The intrigue: A tropical wave designated as “Invest 93E” in the Pacific off the south coast of Mexico is expected to develop into a tropical storm or hurricane in the coming days. It will curve north and toward Baja, and its leftovers should eventually end up over Mexico and either the desert Southwest or perhaps Texas. Obviously it won’t be a hurricane at that point, but we don’t know exactly how that system will impact our rain chances later next week or weekend, if at all. But options ranging from higher rain chances to very low rain chances, or even some scattered strong thunderstorms are on the table.

We probably won’t get much visibility on this until early next week. We’ll keep you posted.

Good morning. If you missed our tropical update yesterday, check that out here, as it runs down all the items in the Atlantic basin we’re watching. We’ll update a couple items below based on what we see this morning.

Meanwhile, today has the potential to be a bit of a slog in spots due to rainfall. I think most areas will see at least some rainfall today, and some of it could be quite heavy, leading to pockets of street flooding. We are holding back on a flood scale upgrade to Stage 1 right now, but there will probably be a few neighborhoods that see a little water on the streets for a time today.

Today

Showers and storms are already marching inland past I-10 as of 6:45 this morning. Coverage should continue to expand northward through the day, and again, we do feel that much of the area will see at least some rainfall today. Areas south and east of downtown Houston will have the highest odds of heavier rainfall, and this would probably include the Beaumont and Port Arthur areas as well.

Look for an average of around a half-inch area wide today, with a bit less north and west and a bit more south and east. Isolated areas that see repeating rainfall could easily see 3 or 4 inches or a bit more today, again most likely south and east of Houston. Street flooding is the main concern, and while we are not issuing a Stage 1 alert, just be mindful of that potential in spots today. We will monitor the rainfall situation and update or escalate as needed today.

Clouds and showers will likely keep temperatures held way back today with 80s for most and some low-90s well inland and toward College Station.

Tuesday

The pattern remains quite favorable for locally heavy rainfall tomorrow too. Look for scattered to numerous showers and storms throughout the day. By their nature, not everyone will see rain again tomorrow, but those that do may see some pretty healthy rainfall. More on this Tuesday morning.

Rest of the week

Things do look to calm down a bit Wednesday through Friday, as we revert to more of a typical pattern of daily showers and storms associated with the sea breeze and daytime heating. Some of the rain will be heavy, but the most common areas to see heavier rain will be south and east of Houston. Daytime highs will be near average to perhaps a tick cooler than average, with upper-80s to near 90 degrees and lows in the 70s.

Labor Day weekend

At this point, we expect more of the same. The good news is that the models that had been aggressive in developing a tropical system near the Yucatan late this week and weekend have backed off a bit in the last 24 hours. This means there should almost certainly be no impact on Texas’s Labor Day weekend outlook from that, just scattered showers and storms each day, with highs within a degree or two of 90 degrees.

Rest of the tropics

The rest of the tropics continue looking active today. There are four areas to monitor on the National Hurricane Center’s five day outlook.

The good news for us? As noted in yesterday’s tropics outlook, none of these areas is of particular concern for Texas or the Gulf Coast. We’ll continue to monitor, particularly the one that may develop near the Lesser Antilles, but at this time, there is nothing in any model guidance that concerns us for the next week or more.

Happy Sunday, everyone. I wanted to dedicate a special post to the tropics today because there’s a lot happening, and we just want to let you know where things stand with each area we’re watching.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

We expect activity to crank up a bit this week, with potential for a named storm or two, but at this time none of these is a direct threat to the Houston area.

Quick overview

As of Sunday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center has four areas highlighted for potential development over the next 5 days.

In addition to these four areas, there are some things in the Gulf to watch but none that are likely to develop tropically. We’ll get to all these areas now. Use the map above as your guide.

Area 1 in the Caribbean

Is this a concern for Texas? Not really, but it may help contribute to some rainfall next weekend or after Labor Day

The main area we’ve been watching for a few days now is a disturbance that’s heading into the northwest Caribbean. The GFS model latched onto this system last week, incorrectly it turns out, and was trying to bring this into the Gulf as a substantial storm on occasional runs. Models seem to have latched onto this now and favor a track that’s a bit farther south and into Mexico. Whether it becomes a system or not remains to be seen.

It certainly has a long way to go based on the satellite image above. Why are we confident in this likely staying to our south? Well, for one it’s disorganized. Weaker systems will be less apt to gain latitude and will continue generally off to the west or west-northwest across the Caribbean. The longer this takes to organize, the narrower that exit ramp becomes until perhaps it’s too late and it ends up being forced into Mexico or even Central America.

Even in the case of the more bullish GFS model, one look at the ensemble tells you all you need to know. Wherever the low is this Saturday evening; be it west of the Yucatan over the Bay of Campeche or just approaching the Yucatan, as high pressure builds across the northern Gulf from Bermuda, it will seal off the northward exit door, and even a stronger system would likely be forced into Mexico here. And again, that’s assuming the GFS is correct on developing this…a bit of a stretch right now.

So, at this point, the only real thing this might do in Texas is bring us some rainfall enhancement later next weekend or just after Labor Day. Obviously, we’ll watch for any changes, but at this point, we have limited concerns regarding this system.

Invest 91L

Is this a concern for Texas? At this time, we do not believe this will impact the western Gulf at all.

Invest 91L is likely to garner most of the headlines this week. It has the highest chance to develop right now, and it’s likely to be the one that comes closest to the U.S. This one is going to be a bit of a challenge to predict I think, as the steering currents around it, and the organization of the system itself will ultimately impact its track and both seem complicated.

In the near-term, this thing has to fight dry air all around it, compounded in part by pretty aggressive wind shear on either side.

Over the next 3 to 5 days, as this comes west and west-northwest to just northeast of the Lesser Antilles, it will then likely start feeling the effects of shifting steering currents. Initially, those steering currents may keep an exit door open for 91L to turn out to sea. But if it’s too weak to gain that much latitude, it will stay in place and may actually get turned a bit back to the west again, bringing it a bit closer to the Bahamas or Florida perhaps. This would be the result of that high pressure shifting west across the northern Gulf that helps keep area 1 away from Texas. It may also cause it to slow down some as well.

From there, it’s anyone’s guess. At this point, I am not expecting anything major from this, but it’s worth watching in the Southeast or the larger Caribbean islands and Bahamas. But any impacts in those locations are at least 6 to 8 days away. Never say never, obviously, but at this point it seems unlikely to get to the Gulf.

Invest 92L

Is this a concern for Texas? No.

The second invest in the Atlantic is chilling east of Bermuda. It’s no threat to any land mass at this time, and any development would be slow and probably weak.

Area 2 in the deep Atlantic

Is this a concern for Texas: Not right now, and probably not at all.

The last area of note from the NHC is in the far eastern Atlantic. Right now, things are a bit of a sloppy mess out there, with storms, tropical waves, and more — but nothing organized.

What exactly happens out here is TBD. Models are convinced something should come of this, but none of the model data looks especially significant at this point. Some even turn this out to sea before it even gets halfway across the Atlantic. Whatever the case, this is so far away and so disorganized right now, that there’s little we can intelligently say about this area. So we’ll leave it at that for now.

The Gulf

As of Sunday afternoon, there are no areas of interest outlined in the Gulf by the NHC. Looking at satellite here, that may be somewhat tough to believe.

That area of thunderstorms looks better than anything in the tropical Atlantic that’s outlined at this time. But looks are sometimes deceptive. While certainly there is a lot of storm activity in the western Gulf, there is no organization to this area right now, nor is there expected to be. This moisture is expected to come north and northwest over the next 36 hours, and this is likely to enhance our coverage of showers and storms tomorrow and perhaps Tuesday, particularly along the coast but perhaps inland as well. We’ll have more on this for you in our usual Monday morning post, but keep your umbrella handy tomorrow.

Aside from that, the Gulf looks quiet. There are modeling hints of something trying to emerge out of Central America after Labor Day, but it’s so far out and has such modest model support right now that it doesn’t make sense to speculate beyond the fact that we’re always monitoring things this time of year. We’re good this week, and we’ll keep tabs on all the things out there as the week progresses. As good a report as you could ask for on August 28th. More for you tomorrow AM!

As Eric covered this morning, we’re watching rain chances here in the Houston area for the midweek period, as some rainfall rates may lead to street flooding in parts of the area, especially north of I-10. But we wanted to also catch you up on what’s happening elsewhere in Texas, as we know many of you travel to and fro or have friends and relatives across the Lone Star State. Here’s a quick rundown of what’s happened and what to expect.

DFW Metroplex flooded

Incredible amounts of rain fell on the Dallas and Fort Worth Metroplex overnight and into today, with some parts of Dallas and Tarrant Counties seeing 12 to 16 inches of rain in 24 hours. DFW Airport is approaching its single day rainfall record, and at worst it will finish as the second wettest day there on record.

Many roadways are flooded, and if they aren’t, they are littered with flooded cars. Travel is discouraged to Dallas or Fort Worth the rest of today. Tomorrow seems like a better day for that, though you may encounter heavy rainfall between Houston and Dallas. So whatever your plans are, please use caution and budget in patience and pad.

City of Dallas rain total map
Tarrant County rain total map

Next round of flooding concerns

For folks in Dallas, the good news is that rain should ease up a lot this evening as the frontal boundary that has helped focus the rains has sagged south of the city. They will have a chance to clean up. Rainfall should begin to pick up in intensity a bit farther south though, and tonight’s focus could be Hill Country or the San Antonio and Austin areas.

In fact, Hill Country and parts of San Antonio, Austin, and Waco are being highlighted by the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC) this afternoon for potential 2 to 3 inch hourly rainfall rates.

In addition to this, areas of northeast Texas may be targeted with heavy rainfall as well, and the flooding threat will extend to places like Texarkana and Tyler. Tyler is under a Flash Flood Warning as of this writing. Flood Watches include those locations, down to Lufkin and east past Shreveport, LA.

Look for flood watches and warnings to shift through the week as the rainfall threat shifts.

Tuesday and Wednesday’s risks

Both Tuesday and Wednesday will see rain drop closer to Houston. We aren’t expecting the level of tremendous rain rates and flooding as seen in Dallas, but we’ll want to watch things closely over the next few days, as model precision in handling rain rates through these types of events is rather poor. As of now, the primary risk of flooding rains will extend from just northeast of San Antonio across northern parts of Houston into Louisiana tomorrow.

Then on Wednesday we’ll deal with residual rain chances in Houston and most flooding risks in Louisiana.

Will this end the drought?

Yes and no. Drought is complicated. The amount of rainfall needed to officially end the drought in Texas is 10 to 15 inches over a wide swath of the state. Other than the Dallas area, we aren’t seeing those kinds of totals over a wide enough area.

Drought is a little more complex than just needing a certain amount of rain, however. There are longer-term droughts, like the one Texas is in, which impacts agriculture, deep soil moisture, water supply, etc. Then there is short-term drought, which we also have had this summer. That leads to all of the above but also things like wildfire risk. This rain will absolutely help, if not end the short-term drought in much of eastern Texas. It will help the long-term drought as well, but we will need more rain in the coming weeks in order for that to be effective. I spoke a bit about this on Texas Standard this morning.

Why is this so bad so fast?

There’s a saying that droughts end in floods for a reason. Texas is a state of extremes, becoming further exacerbated in a warming climate. In this case, a persistent weather pattern that plagued us with drought and heat all summer finally flipped, simultaneous to a bunch of added moisture from the Southwest monsoon (which itself may have been energized somewhat by the old tropical disturbance that flooded parts of South Texas over a week ago), as well as added moisture from this weekend’s PTC 4 that went into Mexico. All of this hit a sagging cold front, and someone will get slammed in that instance.

In a timely turn of events, new research has come out showing how dry soil can exacerbate flooding issues with heavy rain. You can read about that here.

The bottom line: Texas has a history of droughts ending with floods. That’s sort of what’s happening here. While this may not necessarily be the “end” of drought for all of Texas, it will be for some of the state. Please use caution and stay aware of rain risks over the next few days as it all moves through.