It is pretty clear that the worst of winter is now behind us in Texas, and while winter is by no means “over,” we should see generally pleasant conditions going forward. Occasional cold fronts will probably ensure that outcome at least through next weekend.
Today
Fog is around much of the area outside the city this morning, so take some care while driving.
We’ll see plenty of sunshine again today, but there should be at least a few clouds around. We’ll warm back into the 70s again this afternoon.
Saturday
I think tomorrow will come with mixed reviews. We have a cold front that will push through the region in the morning. This will probably bring at least a broken line of showers or some rain through the area in the morning hours. So if you have outdoor plans, I might suggest the afternoon over the morning if possible. However, that may also come with a price tag in the form of cooler temperatures. No 70s on Saturday; we’ll see temperatures likely peak in the 50s in the morning and then probably stay there Saturday afternoon.
With a noticeable breeze included, 15 to 25 mph at times, it will feel like February.
Sunday
Temperatures will drop through the 40s and into the 30s Saturday night, bottoming out in the 30s in most areas away from the coast. Look for AM lows perhaps at or below freezing up near Conroe or in some isolated spots outside the city and suburbs.
Sunday morning lows will be back in the 30s with a light freeze possible well outside the city to the north and west (NWS via Pivotal Weather)
Sunday itself will be delightful with sunshine, diminishing winds, and highs near 60 degrees.
Monday & Tuesday
Look for continued pleasant weather on Valentine’s Day with temperatures starting in the 30s and warming into the 60s. Dining al fresco will be cool but probably tolerable with evening temperatures around 60 degrees, give or take. Winds will be light. Tuesday should be similarly nice, with sunshine and upper 60s after morning 40s.
Beyond Tuesday
We’ll see a pretty aggressive warm up begin Tuesday night and Wednesday with a 10+ day stretch of sub-50 degree low temperatures likely ending on Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the 70s on Wednesday and not drop below 60 degrees on Wednesday night. Our next cold front is aiming for Thursday, and Thursday’s temperatures will depend on the exact timing of the front. If it’s late in the day, we’ll go deep into the 70s, but if it’s earlier, we may not get much past the mid-60s. More on that for you Monday.
The Storm Prediction Center is already highlighting the potential for severe weather north of our area on both Wednesday and Thursday (shown here). While this setup looks difficult for the Houston area to get severe weather, it will be worth watching at least for Thursday. (NOAA)
As far as actual weather goes, we’ll likely contend with some fog at times on Wednesday and Thursday, in addition to clouds and sun. Thursday’s front may come with a bit of punch, so I suspect we’ll be tracking thunderstorms, particularly north of I-10 as it passes through. The Storm Prediction Center is already highlighting days 6 and 7 for severe risks in North Texas (Wednesday) and northern Louisiana (Thursday). This looks like a more classic Houston situation where “capping” in the atmosphere will be present for us, limiting risk of severe weather. But we’ll give you more details on that next week. Fair, cooler weather should build in for Presidents’ Day weekend.
Good morning, and it’s certainly nice to wake up to no power issues related to the grid across Texas. ERCOT’s status is normal. That being said, we do have some considerable travel issues to contend with this morning. Those should slowly improve today, and the weekend looks like a pretty nice one, if you like calm winter weather.
This morning
Current temperatures across the Houston area are in the mid to upper-20s away from the coast and generally around the low-30s at the coast.
It’s a cold morning across the area, but temperatures will slowly warm up through the day. (NOAA)
Wind chills are about 10 degrees colder than this, with mostly low to mid-teens around the region.
Precipitation ended for most folks yesterday evening, and radar is quiet this morning across the area with everything basically offshore now. But the damage is done in terms of road conditions west of Houston. Icy patches are still being reported west of Katy and in far northwest Harris County. While you should be able to maneuver for the most part around the Houston area this morning, please use extra caution on bridges and overpasses, which could still have some icy patches.
Icy patches are reported mostly west of Katy and up toward Magnolia. Traveling toward Dallas or Austin may be challenging today, however. (TxDOT)
If you are traveling away from Houston today, use extreme caution. If you can postpone travel to Austin or Dallas, it’s probably advisable, as road conditions should not improve a lot today in those areas. Travel to San Antonio is probably manageable after this morning, but again, please drive carefully. Monitor road conditions at drivetexas.org.
Rest of today
Clearing is not expecting to be total today, and the most I’d bank on right are perhaps some brightening skies this afternoon. Otherwise, a lot of clouds. That will keep temperatures from getting much above 35 degrees today. It’s just straight up cold.
Tonight
Another round of light to moderate freezing temperatures should be expected tonight.
Temperatures will dip below freezing again in most of the area tonight with mid-20s north and west of Houston. (Pivotal Weather)
Continue to keep plants and exterior pipes protected especially and make sure to check on any vulnerable friends, family, and neighbors, as this is a prolonged cold event for our area.
Weekend
The weather this weekend looks just fine. After the chilly start to Saturday, we’ll warm up well into the 40s during the afternoon with sunshine. It will be cold again Saturday night, but this time only the outlying areas will see meaningful freezing temperatures. Expect low to mid-30s in Houston and along the coast and upper-20s to 30 or so away from the city and coast.
Sunday morning’s temperatures will not be quite as cold as today or Saturday. (Pivotal Weather)
Sunday looks delightful as well. We’ll see more sunshine and highs push back above 50° Sunday afternoon!
Early next week
A weak disturbance will likely stay offshore on Monday, but I do expect us to see some clouds and at least a rain shower chance along the immediate coast. Any rain won’t amount to much there, if it happens at all. Once that system passes, it will usher in a bit of a reinforcing shot of cooler, drier weather, along with more sunshine for midweek. Look for highs in the 50s Monday and Tuesday and perhaps cracking 60 again by Wednesday. Lows will be in the upper-30s to near 40 on Monday morning, then probably back in the 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
At this point, I’d expect generally cooler than normal weather to continue through at least Valentine’s Day. Perhaps warmer weather will be in the cards after then. We’ll see.
First off, travel is becoming very treacherous in parts of western Harris, northern Fort Bend, Austin, and Waller Counties. According to the Drive Texas map at 8:30 PM, there are icy patches in many spots west of Houston. A 10-vehicle crash was just reported on the Westpark Tollway in Clodine.
Patchy ice is beginning to cause hazardous travel west of Houston. If travel can be postponed tonight, it’s advised. (TxDOT)
If you can avoid travel tonight, it’s best to do so, especially west of Houston. If you cannot, please use extreme caution, especially on bridges and overpasses. Based on reports to our west, once temperatures hit 29 to 30 degrees, that’s generally when ice issues seem to begin. Most of the close-in Houston area is 30 to 32 right now, but it drops to 29 and 30 north and west of there. I would expect to see some major freeway flyovers on the west side of the city close soon, if they have not already. South and east of Houston, temperatures are still 33 to 34 degrees, so icing isn’t a concern for now.
As far as the good news goes, it would appear that a lot of the precipitation is exiting the area or weakening. Radar as of 8:35 PM shows the heaviest, steadiest precipitation either along the coast or exiting to our east. This should continue to wane over the next few hours.
Radar this evening shows most precipitation beginning to wind down and exit to the east of Houston. (RadarScope)
That said, we will likely see pockets of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle continue a little longer this evening before shutting down overnight. And with temperatures not warming up until late morning or early afternoon tomorrow, what’s frozen out there will likely stay in place until at least that time. Coastal areas may see a little light freezing rain or drizzle overnight, but it would likely only amount to a few isolated slick spots. Still, exercise caution there as well tomorrow morning and be aware of isolated patches of black ice over the entire area.
Nighttime temperatures won’t stray a ton from where they are right now, so look for lows in the mid to upper 20s north and west and near freezing south and east.
Morning lows will be cold, but not extraordinarily so on Friday. Still, make sure any sensitive plants are protected, and check in with any vulnerable friends and family. (Pivotal Weather)
By no means will this be a memorable freeze for the Houston area, but you should still make sure any sensitive plants are protected the next few nights and have any exterior pipes wrapped and irrigation systems off.
The most important news of all? ERCOT’s situation is healthy right now, and there are no conservation notices posted. All available evidence and data implies that we should be able to manage fine through tomorrow morning.
We may see some sunshine tomorrow afternoon, but temperatures will likely struggle into the upper 30s. A slow warmup is expected this weekend. I’ll have more on that for you in the morning. For now, stay safe and stay warm!
Eric has been keeping you apprised on local impacts due to the upcoming cold snap and winter storm, which at this time appear to be relatively minor. We often get asked about weather across other portions of Texas, as people plan travel or have friends and relatives elsewhere. In this post, we’ll talk a bit more about what is expected weather-wise across the Lone Star State from this significant winter storm. It’s important to again underscore that this is not a February 2021 repeat, even elsewhere in Texas. All events have unique impacts. It’s not a reason to take events like this lightly, as this one will cause some significant problems I am sure, particularly related to travel. But it’s important for us to provide some context for you, and that context is that this is a not a February 2021-type event virtually anywhere in Texas.
North Texas & DFW Metro
This winter storm will produce multiple hazards across Texas, and each area will have its own problems. In the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, the concern is very much ice over anything else. Conditions will deteriorate later tomorrow afternoon and evening from northwest to southeast across the area, with rain transitioning to freezing rain (ice) and eventually sleet or snow. It may be a bit of a wild night Wednesday into Thursday morning with different areas seeing switches from ice to sleet to snow and back, eventually trending to all snow and sleet before ending on Thursday morning or afternoon.
This map shows expected freezing rain accumulation from the National Weather Service in Dallas, Fort Worth, and North Texas; expected amounts of 1/4″ or more north and east of Dallas may lead to severe travel disruption and localized power outages. (Weather Bell)
When all is said and done, most of the DFW area should see a tenth of an inch or two of ice, enough to cause significant travel problems and potentially some localized power outages or downed tree branches. North and east of Dallas is the highest concern. Modeling has been pretty consistent in pegging that area for higher ice accumulation (a quarter-inch or more), and that could lead to more significant travel problems and power outages. Travel to North Texas is not advised Wednesday night, Thursday, and potentially Friday, when things can hopefully begin to thaw out.
Less ice is expected east and southeast of Dallas, but there could also be some travel issues in far northern parts of the Piney Woods, particularly around Tyler and Longview. Patchy light ice is possible farther south toward Palestine, Nacogdoches, and Lufkin. Southeastern Oklahoma and portions of Arkansas will likely be hardest hit in terms of ice.
Snow and sleet are a little less of a concern than ice in Dallas, but it could still be significant, with perhaps 1 to 3 inches of accumulation on top of any ice, especially as you head out west of Fort Worth toward Weatherford and Mineral Wells. But the combination of everything will likely make for very, very difficult travel in North Texas late this week.
Overnight lows heading into Friday morning should bottom out in the teens in Dallas, the coldest night of this event (compared to -2 in February 2021).
Teens are expected in Dallas on Friday morning, with 20s east of I-45 and south of I-20. Single digits are possible as you get out toward Abilene or Wichita Falls, which should see more snow than ice. (Pivotal Weather)
Single digits are possible well west of the Metroplex, heading toward Abilene or Wichita Falls, areas that will likely see less ice and about 2 to 3 inches of snow, which allows for more effective radiational cooling at night.
West Texas (El Paso, Midland, Lubbock, Amarillo)
For West Texas, the story will likely be snow and cold, with a little ice in spots as well. Snow will develop in the Panhandle late tonight, while a mix of precipitation should develop in the Permian Basin on Wednesday morning. The transition from a mix to all snow should gradually drop south and east tomorrow night, reaching I-10 west of Hill Country around midnight before snow gradually winds down. Blizzard conditions are possible in some of the mountains in far West Texas, so a hike in Guadalupe Mountains National Park would be ill-advised.
Total snow in southwest Texas should be about 1 to 3 inches, with higher amounts and blizzard conditions possible in some of the mountain ranges, primarily north of the Big Bend. (Pivotal Weather)
When all is said and done, most southern areas will see a modest 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts in the mountains but plenty of blowing snow as well. Additionally, up to a tenth of an inch of ice will be possible in some spots.
In the Panhandle, generally 1 to 3 inches and blowing snow is expected, with a few higher amounts, especially north of Amarillo. You can see some discontinuities in the map below, which are related to the general uncertainty that’s always present in Southern Plains winter storms. Each National Weather Service office relies on their experience and model trends to produce these forecasts, so there are bound to be some differences from place to place. I show these to give you a general idea of expectations and some granularity.
Roughly 2 to 4 inches of snow is expected in the Panhandle, with higher amounts possible, mainly north of Amarillo. (Pivotal Weather)
Temperatures will be quite cold in West Texas, with lows in the single digits to below zero expected on Friday morning in the Panhandle and single digits to teens in southwest Texas.
Low temperatures on Friday, while quite cold in West Texas, also will fall several degrees short of February 2021 levels. (Pivotal Weather)
In some cases, while these temperatures are quite cold, they will fall 10 degrees or more short of last February’s coldest readings. Again, while this is a big storm, it’s not historic in the way last February was.
Central Texas (Austin, San Antonio, Waco)
As is often the case, the farther south and east you go, the harder the forecast gets in Texas winter storms. Central Texas is no exception this time around, with models painting a challenging forecast, particularly over Waco and Austin. A mix of rain, ice, and possibly sleet will arrive late Wednesday night and Thursday, slowly transitioning over to sleet or mixed sleet and snow late Thursday. While the duration of precipitation should be relatively brief here compared to other parts of Texas, there is still some chance that ice overperforms some, particularly from Austin through Waco.
At least a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of ice is possible from the northern San Antonio suburbs through Austin and Waco and for much of Hill Country. (Weather Bell)
In general, most of Hill Country and the I-35 corridor north of New Braunfels should see 0.05 to 0.10 inches of ice, enough to create some hazardous travel on Thursday into at least Friday morning. It’s not out of the question that a few isolated spots, particularly north of Killeen through Waco could see upwards of two-tenths of an inch of ice, which would cause more substantial issues. Whatever happens, ice is expected to be an issue north of San Antonio on Thursday and travel is not advised Thursday into at least Friday morning.
Morning lows on Friday will be quite chilly.
Morning lows on Friday are expected to be just above 20 degrees in San Antonio, in the teens in Austin, and near 20 in Waco, with teens likely in Hill Country. (NOAA)
Expect lows to again come up well short of February 2021’s levels in Central Texas, with San Antonio, Austin, and Waco all within a few degrees of 20 on Friday morning.
South Texas
No serious winter impacts outside of cold and wind are expected in South Texas, thankfully. However, Friday morning will certainly be cold in the Valley and toward Victoria and Corpus Christi.
Friday morning low temperatures will be near freezing or below in most of South Texas, with 20s in Corpus Christi and Victoria, as well as Laredo. (NOAA)
At this time, icing is not expected south and east of San Antonio, but a few reports of light icing or sleet can’t be entirely ruled out, especially in the Victoria Crossroads.
Eric will have the latest on our Houston area expectations in the morning!
