Do abnormally hot Houston Junes typically lead to an abnormally hot rest of summer?

Good morning! The thermometer topped out at 101 degrees yesterday officially in Houston, which tied the record for June 23rd, last set in 2009. It’s hot, it’s going to continue, but we still think next week will be slightly, if not much improved. More on all that in a second.

The most common questions we have been getting of late are two-fold: “How similar is this summer to 2011?” (the epic drought summer), and “Does a hot June portend a hot July and August?” Let’s start with the 2011 comparison.

First off, while the drought is not as severe, 2022 has been hotter than 2011. The May 1-June 23 period checks in at an average (high + low, divided by two) of 83.4°, which smashes the record of 81.8° set in 2011 and again in 2018. The difference between 2011 and 2022 at this point is the extremeness of the heat. We are lagging 2011 in terms of warm temperature records set. But the consistency and persistence of stronger than normal heat is ridiculous. Our last below normal day was June 3rd. Depending on exactly how next week shapes up, we should see our hottest June on record this year.

May and June of 2011 featured some more extreme daytime heat across Texas, but this year is seeing more persistent heat, especially at night. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)

Interestingly, 2011 was hotter during the daytimes, but June 2022 is running almost 2 degrees above 2011 at night. And don’t even get me started on Galveston. The Island has set or tied *33* warm low temperature records just since May 1st. These are signals consistent with climate change, urban sprawl, and a very warm Gulf in our backyard.

The second question about whether we can derive any insights for the rest of summer based on June’s outcome is a little trickier to answer. In general, what occurs in June has very little in common with July and August outcomes here in Houston. We can see this on a scatter plot, which simply compares the June average temperature on the y-axis with the July average temperature on the x-axis.

Since 1950, the correlation between June and July temperatures has been positive (hot Junes tend to favor hot Julys), but it’s pretty weak.

The chart above shows June vs. July in Houston. A June vs. August or July vs. August chart would not look too dissimilar. There’s definitely a loose correlation (hot Junes do favor hot Julys), but it’s pretty weak overall.

Now, what if we just look at some more significant drought summers. Drought would typically imply a stable pattern, much like we’ve seen this year. So I went back and looked at the Texas averaged Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) by month back to 1950. I parsed out the March through May values and extrapolated out an approximate June 2022 value. In other words, I looked at a drought classification for all of Texas between March and June and found the 13 closest matches to 2022. Does that change the outcome? For July it does, significantly so. Remove 2011 from the sample, and there is virtually no correlation whatsoever.

There is very little correlation between June and July temperatures during years with dry March-June periods.

But what of August? That story appears a bit different.

There is some signal suggesting a hot June in a dry year boosts the odds of a hot August, though the sample size is a bit too small to say so definitively.

While there is a very nice correlation showing up here, a sample size of 13 summers feels just a little too small to say anything definitively. In fact, if we again remove the hottest outcome there, 2011, it cuts the R^2 value almost in half, implying a much weaker correlation.

What is the takeaway here? A hot June tells us very little about the subsequent July outcome other than it may also tend to be on the hotter side. A hot June in a drought year may also slightly favor a hot August outcome, but the sample size is too small to say anything with confidence. So, if you are hoping that the rest of summer is not as abnormally hot as June, you do have at least some hope here.

Drought update

With new burn bans and water restrictions being issued daily across the region, a look at the drought map explains why.

Locally, we didn’t see much drought expansion this week, but the state as a whole continues to trend in the wrong direction. (US Drought Monitor)

The coverage of drought changed little across our area with yesterday’s update, and the southern half of the region remains in D3, or extreme drought conditions. But we continue to receive minimal relief. That may change next week, however.

Today through Sunday

Hot, hot, hot. Look for temperatures near 100° or hotter each afternoon with just the slightest chance for a shower or storm. Morning lows should be in the 70s inland and 80s near the bays and Gulf and perhaps in the Inner Loop. Heat index values should flirt with 105° each afternoon, so please use caution outdoors.

Next week: Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes

As the upper level high pressure system responsible for our scorching weekend escapes westward next week, this will open the Gulf up for daily thunderstorm chances. In any other summer, next week would not look overly impressive. Given how little rain we’ve had, however, just the chance at daily showers returning will likely make a big difference, at least temporarily.

Rainfall between Monday and next Friday morning should average around a half-inch or a bit more south and east of Houston. Higher amounts are likely in spots, perhaps up to 1 to 3 inches. (Pivotal Weather)

I think the highest odds for more widespread coverage of showers will be on Tuesday, Wednesday, and perhaps Friday. We’re looking at something like 30 to 40 percent coverage of showers on average each day, with perhaps a couple days seeing 50 or 60 percent coverage. This means that you probably won’t see rain every day, but most of us will see at least some rain on a couple days. Let’s hope for around a half-inch of rain on average next week, with a few more frequently hit spots picking up 1 to 3 inches perhaps. It won’t end the drought, but it will definitely help.

As a result of the showers and clouds, look for high temperatures to back off into the mid-90s or low-90s most days. Lows should remain in the 70s.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds of development of a disturbance in far eastern Atlantic to 60 percent over the next five days.

The odds of an Atlantic disturbance developing into a depression or tropical storm over the next 5 days have increased to 60 percent today. (NOAA)

This is rather far east for a system to develop at this point in the season, so it’s certainly noteworthy. However, from a Gulf Coast-centric perspective, this has a long, long way to go. Initially, my thought is that after next week’s rainy pattern, a hotter, drier pattern is going to attempt to again re-establish over Texas for the week of July 4th, which would be about the time this disturbance makes it into the vicinity of the Gulf. A stronger system would likely turn north before getting here, while a weaker system would likely be squashed by that ridge and forced into Mexico or Central America. So at this point, I don’t view it as something to worry about, but it’s worth checking back in on after the weekend.

Drought expanding around Houston, as our best rain chance for several days arrives today

Yesterday’s drought monitor update showed that drought has indeed expanded around the Houston area, rather significantly too.

Almost the entire Houston metro is officially in drought now, with the fewest impacts in Montgomery County (US Drought Monitor)

Coverage of drought increased almost 10 percent, while coverage of extreme drought (Level 3 of 4) in the southern half of the region almost tripled week over week. We are still well behind 2011’s pace. At this point in 2011, the entire metro area was in level 4 of 4 (exceptional drought) compared to 0 percent today. But we are clearly in drought now, and it’s only going to get more extensive from here.

That said, we may get a little relief today!

Today

Today is beginning on a quiet, warm note once again. But there are actually some showers on radar in Louisiana, which indicates a weak little disturbance passing by. As that moves through our area today, we should expect to see at least a handful of showers or downpours develop. Let’s be fair here: Rain chances are only about 20 to 30 percent, but it’s the highest they have been recently and the highest they will be for a while to come.

Expect mid to upper 90s today with at least some showers or storms around, our best chance of rain for a while longer. (NWS Houston)

There’s a better chance you won’t see rain today than you will, but at least there’s a chance. Aside from that, expect mid to upper 90s with sun, clouds, and a touch of Saharan dust still.

Saturday and Sunday

For the weekend, the good news is that if you’re planning anything for Father’s Day or Juneteenth celebrations, you probably won’t get rained on. The better news is that the Saharan dust will be outta’ here as well. So it will look a bit less hazy outside.

Of course, we stand a really good chance at finally breaching the 100 degree mark officially this weekend (yes, many of you already have reached this point but IAH has not), particularly on Sunday. Either way, it looks hot.

Next week

More of the same. 100 degree chances are with us Monday and maybe Tuesday with very slim to no rain chances. Atmospheric moisture levels look rather low most of next week, so I don’t expect much if any rainfall for most of the week.

Next week’s rainfall forecast. Alright. (Weather Bell)

Temperatures may actually bottom out on Tuesday or Wednesday. With a rebuilding ridge toward the end of the week, we may actually see our hottest weather of summer so far. More on that Monday. Whether it’s 98 or 102 next week, it’s just going to be hot.

Nothing out there we need to monitor for the tropics at this time.

I’ll leave on a quick note: If you missed Eric’s post yesterday, version 1.5 of the Space City Weather app is now available, and we encourage you to upgrade and inform us of any bugs you encounter. Thank you as always for your support.

High summer heat will not be beat

We managed 99 degrees officially again on Monday in Houston, but you may have noticed at least a little less humidity around that peak heating. It’s not much but it does help. So does air conditioning. Your author got his back before Monday afternoon, so we’ll call that a win.

Anyway, the hot weather will continue and so will the dust.

Today

Look for another day with clouds, haze, and sun. We should be able to shave a degree or two off yesterday’s 99 degrees, so look for something more in the mid to upper-90s. Another burst of Saharan dust arriving today should help us double down on the hazy conditions and poor air quality. If you are asthmatic or are sensitive to poor air quality, it would be a good idea to limit outdoor time as much as possible the next few days.

Wednesday through Friday

Of the next few days, only Friday carries something above a 10 percent chance of a shower. Look for sun, clouds, and continued Saharan dust, likely at its worst on Thursday.

The fancy pink color over Texas indicates another surge of Saharan dust on Thursday, which should be the worst day of the event. Improvement arrives this weekend. (Weather Bell)

High temperatures will continue in the mid to upper-90s, with lows in the 70s and 80s. Those Friday rain chances stand at around 20 percent, so a few locations could see a welcome shower or downpour but most will not.

The Saharan dust event should end on Friday, with better air quality and less haze for the upcoming weekend.

Weekend into next week

More of the same. The weak backdoor cold front (a front that comes out of the northeast…from Louisiana) that we were looking at on Sunday looks to get held up to our east. Truthfully, I just don’t see anything better than 20 percent rain chances on any given day into the middle of next week. Highs will be well into the 90s each day.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center continues to outline this area in the Caribbean for a chance at development over the next 5 days.

This is not a concern for Texas, and it’s rather easy to explain why. Our weather pattern over the next week (and beyond) will continue to be dominated by this fluctuating ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere over the Central U.S. As this system waxes, wanes, waxes, and moves around, one thing stays true: It stays in a position to basically shield Texas from any tropical nonsense right now.

If you follow the blue “H” above, an animation of the next 2 weeks of upper level conditions, you’ll see how it meanders around the Plains and Southeast, all the while generally “shielding” Texas from any tropical developments over the next two weeks.

This is both good and bad. It’s good because we could use a year off from hurricane risks. It’s bad, however, because it is likely going to cause the drought across much of Texas to expand and intensify. We could use a little surge of tropical moisture for a couple days. It appears we’re not going to line things up correctly.

Will this heat ever end?

This brings me to the last point today: Many of you are asking when this abnormally hot weather will end. Texas is always hot in summer, but we’re running consistently above average right now, more like July than June. The honest answer is that I have absolutely no idea when this will end.

We’re getting ourselves into a bit of a pickle right now, with a stubborn weather pattern that keeps reinforcing itself over the Plains. Just look at that loop above and you’ll see this. There’s a saying in meteorology that “drought begets drought,” as patterns can occasionally start acting on feedback loops. More dry air, more dry soil, more dry air, more heat, more dry air, etc. I see absolutely nothing right now that would act as a catalyst for change, so we may be stuck in this morass for the rest of June at least, if not longer. We’ve been telegraphing this for a couple months now, but prepare to hear more about drought, burn bans, and maybe more in the weeks ahead. Things can always change, of course, but we’ve got little data to predict change right now.

Pity: Houston failed to officially hit 100 degrees this weekend

Well, we failed to officially hit 100 degrees in Houston this weekend, instead topping out with a pair of 99s on Friday and Sunday, sandwiching a 98 in there on Saturday. The heat will continue this week, though we’ll likely shave at least a couple degrees off things. That makes your author happy because, conveniently, the Lanza household is dealing with a partial AC outage this morning. Yay.

Monday and Tuesday

More of the same, really. Sun, some clouds, and highs in the mid to upper 90s. Rain chances aren’t zero, but they’re awfully close.

One batch of Saharan dust has arrived, peaking tomorrow, with another round coming ashore Wednesday & Thursday. Look for hazy skies this week. (Weather Bell)

We are already seeing some Saharan dust in the area, and as we move into Tuesday, it will become a bit thicker as another surge of dust arrives in Texas. That may subside a bit on Wednesday morning before additional dust later Wednesday and on Thursday. Look for haze, less blue sky, and maybe some more interesting sunrises and sunsets. Those of you that have respiratory ailments that flare up when these hit should be ready for a couple unpleasant days.

Wednesday

Our next reasonable chance of at least some rainfall comes on Wednesday. If you’re choosing cities for your fantasy rainfall battles on Wednesday, I would probably still skip Houston, but the chance is closer to 10 percent than zero. Look for mid-90s. Southerly winds will continue around 10 to 15 mph, gusting 20 to 25 mph at times.

Thursday and Friday

We have a bit of a mixed bag to close the week. For now, I’d expect temperatures to bounce back a degree or two, with highs in the upper 90s for the most part. Rain chances remain at a paltry 10 to maybe 20 percent on Friday.

You can see that expected rainfall over the next 7 days continues to look abysmal. That said, I do think a couple locations may do better than what is shown here, so we’ll hold out hope that some of us get lucky.

Beyond Friday

The weekend gets a little more interesting at least. We will have strong high pressure anchored over Kansas, which is a bit farther north than what we dealt with this weekend. This will allow for continued hot weather, yes, but there may be some “noise” that can sneak in underneath the high.

So I would say that rain chances may actually improve a bit this weekend into early next week. There are some signs of a weak “backdoor” cold front trying to slide in from Louisiana on Sunday or Monday thanks to a pretty strong trough in the atmosphere along the East Coast. Whether that gets here or not is TBD, but just having that in the neighborhood may be enough to trigger some scattered downpours at least.

Bottom line: Rain chances look better this weekend, though still not especially high, and it will remain quite hot.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center is outlining an area in the western Caribbean for possible development this week.

While this probably is something to at least monitor, I don’t think there is a lot of concern about this here. With that very strong ridge over the Central U.S., that argues that whatever happens there will likely stay suppressed to our south. Still, we will keep an eye on things just in case.