Matt Lanza

Yesterday felt like the first real day of autumn: Cloudy skies, temperatures hobbling into the mid to upper-50s, a little breeze. It was rather raw. Today? Much different! This sets the stage for a fantastic weekend, our second in a row.

Today

Temperatures are rather cool this morning. There are pockets of 30s up toward Conroe and Huntsville, 40s away from the coast and low-50s closer to the coast.

Look for any lingering clouds at the coast to dissipate this morning, and the day should roll on with sunshine. It will warm up much more than yesterday, and we should manage mostly mid, maybe upper-60s with a light north wind.

Weekend

Both Saturday and Sunday should see wall to wall sunshine. Look for morning lows in the 40s tomorrow, with temperatures warming to near 70 degrees.

On Sunday, we’ll see morning lows in the 40s and 50s and daytime highs in the lower 70s. A slow warm up.

PS: Don’t forget we “fall back” on Saturday night, so we will have earlier sunrises (which if you have young kids, they will definitely make sure you see it) and sunsets beginning on Sunday. And the microwave clock you forgot to change will be lying to you.

Monday & Tuesday

We look to turn things back onshore Monday and Tuesday, which means we’ll slowly warm up some more and see minor amounts of humidity return. Look for more sunshine on Monday and a few extra clouds building in through the day on Tuesday. Morning lows will generally be in the 50s, with highs in the 70s on both days, possibly upper-70s to near 80 degrees in spots on Tuesday, depending on sunshine.

Next front next week

Our next front is penciled in right now for next Thursday or Friday. This one may be a little more complex to forecast than the one we just experienced, as it will be attached to what is expected to be a somewhat stronger Plains or Midwest storm. There are still some uncertainties on the exact track and intensity of that storm. While we don’t expect significant direct impacts from it, that does impact the timing of the front some. There could be widespread 80s for highs on Thursday, with a breezy onshore wind. We could also see some showers or thunderstorms with the front later Thursday or Friday and some gusty winds behind it too. Nothing too serious it doesn’t appear, but a definite change in the weather. We’ll update you on that Monday.

Yesterday was one of the strongest non-tropical wind events we’ve had around here in recent memory. It was both impressive and unsettling, as I can attest to nearly being taken out by a falling piece of iron on McKinney Street in downtown Houston. Winds gusted as high as 61 mph at Hobby Airport, 64 mph in Cypress, 52 mph in Pearland, and 49 mph in League City. Thousands lost power for a time due to the wind. We will continue to have windy weather today, but it should be less extreme than Thursday’s gusts. We then expect an absolutely sublime weekend of weather.

Today

If winds gusted 40 to 60 mph yesterday, they should gust more like 25 to 40 mph today. It will be something you certainly notice, but it will definitely be less than yesterday’s madness. Winds will kick up as the sun gets higher in the sky this morning, then they’ll actually begin to back off some as the afternoon wears on.

Otherwise, expect sunshine. Highs will top off around 70 degrees or in the lower 70s. All this wind has kicked up a lot of allergens as well, so you may be sniffly or sneezy today into the weekend.

Weekend

The weather this weekend looks just perfect with rampant sunshine. Winds will be light. Look for highs in the mid-70s on Saturday and upper-70s on Sunday. Morning lows will be in the 40s and 50s Saturday and Sunday, coolest inland, warmest in the city and near the coast. Officially, our coolest reading of the season was 50° back on October 17th, so we’ll see if we can match or beat that this weekend.

Trick or treating

Look for temperatures around 71° to 75° at 6 PM and 66° to 70° at 8 PM on Sunday evening. It should be clear and calm.

Astros in Atlanta

Obviously we have other important business to attend to this weekend with the Astros in Atlanta today, tomorrow, and Sunday. All 3 games should be playable. Showers will end around sunset in Atlanta this evening, with clouds and temperatures around 50° for most of the game. Winds will be out of the southeast (blowing in from right field) around 5 to 15 mph. Game 4 on Saturday should again see any showers ending. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s, with a light to moderate breeze from right to left field. Sunday looks fine, with gametime temperatures in the upper-50s, falling into the mid-50s and light northwest winds (blowing out to center field). Go ‘Stros!

Next week

Monday and Tuesday look to be very nice, though they will warm up and turn just slightly more humid. Look for highs near 80° and morning lows in the 50s and 60s. Our next front will attempt to make it here later next week.

This one could come with even slightly cooler air than what we’ll see this weekend, but specific details on the exact timing and strength of the cool air remain a little fuzzy. Check back with us Monday for the latest.

Galaxy Frights, Presented by Reliant

Looking for some tricks and treats this weekend? Check out Galaxy Frights, Presented by Reliant, at Space Center Houston! You can hear from astronauts on the scariest parts of space exploration, become a mad scientist in the Pop-Up Science Labs, experience a great light display, navigate through a spooky maze and, of course, do some trick or treating! More here: https://spacecenter.org/galaxy-frights/

The upcoming weekend will offer up a mixed bag of weather, featuring sun, clouds, some shower chances, and plenty of warmth and humidity. None of this should scare you away from whatever you were planning to do this weekend, though it will be warm! We still have a cold front in sight but not until midweek next week. That may possibly mean the end of “Second Summer” here in Texas.

Friday

We have another round of dense fog in spots this morning, particularly outside Grand Parkway. Places like Sugar Land, Katy, and areas west or south of there toward Wharton or Lake Jackson, as well as east of Houston in Liberty County and toward Beaumont are all seeing visibilities under a half mile as of 6:45 AM.

That fog will dissipate over the next 2 to 3 hours, and today looks fairly similar to yesterday. Expect a mix of clouds and sun and temperatures generally in the 80s. An few showers can’t be ruled out, but rain would be the exception, not the rule.

Saturday and Sunday

As Eric noted yesterday, both weekend days will carry a chance of showers or a thunderstorm. Expect any showers to be fairly short-lived and really not too big a deal. Based on today’s model data, I think Saturday may have a slightly higher overall chance for rain than Sunday. Outside of that, just a mix of sun and clouds with warm, humid conditions. Winds should be generally light on Saturday and then a bit gusty on Sunday. Expect highs in the 80s and lows in the upper-60s or 70s.

Monday and Tuesday

Look for rain chances to ease back a little here, as we end up with continued warm onshore flow ahead of a cold front that will stay to our north but an atmosphere without much to set storms off. Highs will be in the 80s and lows in the 70s. Winds may begin to pick up a bit again on Tuesday.

Midweek and beyond

The cold front we’ve been discussing is still on track to arrive on Wednesday. Models have been in disagreement on how robust the storm chances will be with this front, but suffice to say there will be at least a decent chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday. We should know more about this on Monday. Behind the front, look for refreshing air with lower humidity and gusty offshore winds. That should set up a very nice back half of next week.

You can see from the chart above of European ensemble forecast low temperatures over the next 2 weeks that there is a rather mixed signal after next week’s front. Some ensemble members warm us back up, while others keep us cool. The overall weather pattern across North America may be shifting a bit to allow more frequent cold fronts into Texas. This should perhaps allow us to shift out of this “Second Summer” business and into true autumn. As Eric noted yesterday, the timing of this first front probably means a mild Halloween this year, but there is still ample uncertainty. Again, look for more on this on Monday. Have a great weekend!

It’s tough to argue with the stretch of weather we’ve had this week. It’s been warm, certainly, but with pleasant mornings and evenings and generally low humidity, it’s been pretty outstanding. We will have changes beginning this weekend, and those will set the stage for our weather next week.

Today & Saturday

Both days should be sunny and warm. Look for highs near 90° today with generally low humidity. A similar story unfolds tomorrow with perhaps just a few more fair-weather clouds dotting the sky. Morning lows will be in the 60s or low 70s again. The dewpoint, or how much moisture is in the air will be a couple ticks higher tomorrow, so you may notice it feels a bit more humid, especially in the morning. Patchy fog is also possible in the morning.

Two other quick notes: Air quality has been atrocious this week. The combination is two-fold: An inversion (temperatures warming as you go up in the atmosphere) has trapped pollution and smog near the surface in the morning hours leading to an ugly haze. That should continue today and perhaps tomorrow. Secondly: The full sunshine has led to high levels of ozone each day in the area. This isn’t as visible to the eye, but it can trigger some respiratory ailments in people. On top of all this, if you’re a seasonal allergy sufferer (raises hand), you’ve felt it this week. Ragweed is a big problem, as are mold spores. But, I mean, aside from that, it’s been great!

Sunday

Our transition begins in earnest on Sunday. You’ll notice it a couple ways. First, expect sun and a few more clouds. Second, there could be a few light showers around, especially in the morning hours and especially southwest of Houston. The humidity will also be noticeably higher. In addition to all this, you’ll also notice the wind pick up Sunday. We’ve had a pretty lengthy stretch of light or calm winds this week, but onshore flow builds on Sunday with some 20 to 25 mph gusts possible, particularly near the coast. I don’t think this will be so much wind that it will impact Wings over Houston, but it’ll be a noticeable change.

Look for high temperatures on Sunday in the mid to upper-80s after morning lows in the 70s.

Monday

A cold front will take a swipe at the area on Monday, but it will likely come up short, fizzle, and/or quickly retreat back to the north. It will come close enough however to set off a few showers or storms Monday. We aren’t expecting anything too widespread, but some areas may see their first measurable rain in a good while. Look for warm and humid conditions with a continued onshore breeze. Expect mid to upper-80s after morning lows in the 70s.

Midweek

Tuesday through Thursday get a little more murky. The general expectation should be for warm, humid weather to continue. We’d likely see highs in the 80s and lows in the 70s. We would have at least a few showers in the area each day, but I am guessing the atmosphere will be fairly “capped” next week, meaning thunderstorm development would be tough to come by. That’s a typical Houston-area setup in autumn. Clouds and sun would take turns each day, aside from the isolated showers.

Late week

Here’s where the fun begins. When I wrote my post last Friday, I noted that there was no sign of a meaningful cold front for the foreseeable future. I cannot say that this week, however. Model support and evidence is building that a cold front, possibly a strong one, will push through the region sometime late next week or weekend. Over 90 percent of the Euro ensemble members (shown here) and over 50 percent of GFS ensemble members (not shown) have some sort of front pushing through next Saturday-ish.

Of those Euro ensemble members, about 65% have lows in the mid-50s or cooler possible next Sunday or Monday the 18th. We will see if that can get us into our rhythm for the cool season here, which typically sees a front at least every week or so. Obviously, folks will be watching cold fronts with a little more urgency this year after February’s disaster. It’s still quite early, but we’ll be watching closely through the winter too.