Matt Lanza

Eye on the Tropics: The peak of hurricane season is here

Historically, this week marks the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. This year looks to live up to the hype as well.

The Atlantic looks like a basin that is at the peak of its season. (Weathernerds.org)

We have two tropical storms in the Atlantic today and there are likely to be at least a couple more before next week. We don’t think that any of these systems will seriously threaten the Gulf, however it is important to keep monitoring things, particularly with respect to the third system in line.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene will likely be followed by a third system this week off Africa, and while none looks especially likely to make it to the Gulf, it would be wise not to write them off completely, particularly the third system, given the recent model difficulties we’ve seen.

Tropical Storm Rene

I want to get Rene out of the way first because I think this one has the least future of note, as it relates to the U.S.

Tropical Storm Rene is likely heading out to sea, though it is expected to become a hurricane as it does so. (NOAA)

Tropical Storm Rene has 40 mph maximum sustained winds, and it is impacting the Cabo Verde Islands today. It is expected to track west and then turn northwest and north as it finds a “weakness” in the upper air pattern. The pattern does get a bit convoluted late, so Rene seems to strike me as a storm that could hang around in the open Atlantic for awhile, possibly taking a weird track as it does so. But it will not be a threat to the U.S. or Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Paulette

Tropical Storm Paulette has winds of 50 mph, so it’s a bit stronger than Rene. It’s also farther west. Paulette’s future is a little more difficult to project.

Paulette is expected to track off to the west and eventually turn north. While it should go out to sea, there is a chance it could come a bit farther west. (NOAA)

Paulette is going to be steered back to the west a bit by a building area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere. The storm will then have an opportunity to escape off to the north by the weekend as another area of high pressure off the U.S. East Coast gets eroded by a system moving through New England. I think Paulette’s track is of slightly lower confidence by this time. My doubt rests in Paulette’s intensity. With this pattern, I do wonder if Paulette’s weak intensity this weekend will allow it to escape underneath all that nonsense off the East Coast, which would allow it end up farther south and west of the forecast. In that situation, Paulette’s turn out to sea might wait to commence until it gets between the U.S. and Bermuda, rather than east of Bermuda as currently shown. While it would still likely end up out to sea, it could potentially create a bit more heartburn for folks on the East Coast. We’re about a week away from Paulette getting west of Bermuda if that were to happen, so it’s a lot of speculation. For us in the Gulf, Paulette probably poses no meaningful risk, but I’d at least keep a slight eye on this if I lived on the East Coast.

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A smattering of showers, as we await clarity on next week’s possible cold front

We certainly have not been in a true “drought” this summer, but at times, we’ve flirted with some extended dry periods. We seem to be in one of those now. Over the last 60 days, we have seen mixed results in the rainfall department in our area.

Over the last 2 months, some parts of the Houston area have seen near normal rainfall, while others have seen about half of normal. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)

Parts of the Houston area, particularly down toward Hobby and Clear Lake have seen near average rainfall over the last two months. But, if you go up into western Montgomery County, some places have seen less the 50-percent of normal rainfall. Most of the Houston area is running drier than normal, and while parts of Texas have seen decent rainfall this week, most of Greater Houston has not. At least many of us will see a little rain in the next couple days, as we try to decipher the potential cold front riddle for next week.

Today

If you’re like me, perhaps you were woken up by thunder at 4:15 or so this morning. There have been a few storms focused mainly on the east and north sides of the city so far today. Places like Baytown, Pasadena, and Galena Park have seen around or above a half-inch of rain from those showers.

The rest of today will be characterized by scattered showers and storms. In trying to pinpoint any sort of rhyme or reason to how they’ll behave today, it would seem that they may try to focus in the Highway 59/I-69 corridor or just south this morning before slowly focusing more north and west as the day wears on.

Some of you won’t see any rain. Others could pick up an inch or two with some heavier downpours possible. Most of us will see slightly cooler weather today. Humidity will remain quite high, however, so don’t expect any sort of comfort in the Houston area. But, hey, at least Galveston finally dropped below 87 degrees this morning. Look for highs in the lower 90s and heat index values again jumping above 100 degrees, albeit somewhat less oppressive than earlier this week.

Weekend

Both weekend days will carry at least a chance of showers or a thunderstorm. As low pressure in the upper atmosphere gradually weakens and slips away, we’ll see a little less support for storms than perhaps we see today. Look for scattered showers both days, but with gradually less coverage. Many areas may not see much rain at all this weekend. Right now, places away from the coast look to have higher odds of rain, with a gradual shift south and west on Sunday.

Rainfall this weekend will total about a quarter to half-inch on average, with some seeing less and others seeing a bit more. (Weather Bell)

Total rainfall when all is said and done will likely average around  a quarter to half-inch of rain for most of the area. Again, some will see less, some a bit more. That’s just the nature of these types of setups. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-90s this weekend, with our uncomfortably warm overnights continuing.

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Eye on the Tropics: So now what?

It’s kind of crazy to think that our last full tropical update was two weeks ago, and we noted how things were about to ramp up. For many folks in Louisiana, the world is a much different place today than it was then. For Houston, I think we had a moment there. You exhale, but then you realize that nothing has really changed, and all it takes is one more storm to bring us right back to where we were sitting in the days before Laura. So will that happen? Probably not, but let’s walk through things.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

We expect several systems to develop over the next week or two across the basin, but right now only one of them is worth seriously watching and even it will be racing against the potential cold front next week.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 16

The system that we referred to as Invest 99L yesterday has been classified as Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 (PTC 16) in the Caribbean this morning, meaning it is expected to become a depression or named entity soon. It looks fairly healthy on satellite, and it will likely develop over the next couple days.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 is not a threat to the Gulf of Mexico, but it will deliver heavy rain to parts of Central America. (NOAA)

Fortunately, thanks to our oppressive heat in Texas, with sprawling high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, this will keep PTC 16 well to our south. No need to worry about this coming to the Gulf. So what is coming after this system?

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Visualizing Hurricane Laura’s destruction in Louisiana

Good afternoon. Hurricane Laura has rolled on into Arkansas this afternoon and weakened to a tropical storm. However it has left a trail of destruction in its wake. This post will be very image heavy, with a number of pictures of damage that caught my eye through the day in Louisiana that I’d like to share. A quick forecast update will follow.

Let’s start with the Doppler Radar. The Lake Charles Doppler, sited at the airport south of the city (which reported over a 130 mph wind gust) saw its radome blown to pieces.

This looks a lot like the Doppler in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria in 2017.

The scenes in Lake Charles really do look like a giant tornado just ripped through the city. The one large skyscraper in downtown Lake Charles, Capital One Tower sustained severe damage. This building also took a severe hit during Hurricane Rita in 2005.

The KPLC-TV tower crumpled and fell onto or adjacent to parts of the TV station building. This one had apparently survived Audrey, Rita, and Ike, but finally succumbed to Laura.

There had been some speculation that the I-10 bridge in Lake Charles (which, if you’ve ever driven, you just know, trust me) might sustain difficulties under a record storm surge. Well, it’s still standing, although it has a casino boat stuck underneath today.

Lake Charles did not receive the expected record surge thanks to a landfall basically right at Calcasieu Pass (had it hit land even just five miles west, the story today would be much different), but they did receive a pretty serious surge in that area.

That surge was notable, however, it can be seen from space.

You can see especially east of Calcasieu Lake (the 2nd larger inland lake from the left) how much land mass ended up underwater. There is a reason that part of coastal Louisiana is not heavily populated.

Back in the Lake Charles area, in addition to everything, a large fire broke out (not at oil refineries as the tweet says) at the KIK Custom Products Biolab in Westlake, just off to the west of the city. The fire prompted a shelter in place order for the area.

The wind damage in Lake Charles is just incredible. Though they escaped the worst of the water, they paid for it with the worst of the wind.

I’m assuming winds were strong enough to derail these train cars and this isn’t surge damage.

South of Lake Charles in Hackberry, the same scenes of devastation present themselves. Houses damaged or destroyed by wind and/or water.

Moving even farther south to the coast, Holly Beach is a mess, though it does not look as bad as feared. They came in just west of the eye and avoided the absolute worst of Laura.

However, for a sobering view, here’s helicopter footage from Cameron, where Laura came ashore. Note the occasional slabs where structures used to stand.

Anyway, the purpose of showing you these photos and videos, aside from informational value is to understand that Lake Charles is about 30 miles from the coastline. If a northwest moving storm of Laura’s size and intensity came ashore at, say, San Luis Pass (an Alicia track but with a larger & stronger storm), the result would be a very large chunk of the Houston area resembling what we see in Lake Charles. It would be devastating. And if you think it couldn’t happen here, think again. It could easily happen, and I’m fairly confident we are not even remotely prepared for what that would look like. Instead of viewing Laura as another Houston near-miss, it would be wise for all of us to view this as an informational session on what could happen here and think about what we will do in the days before it does.

Houston weather

I just want to make a quick note about the weather here in Houston tomorrow. We’ve seen signs on the models that sort of a trailing band of moisture feeding Laura’s remnants will set up over southeast Texas and Louisiana. At this point, we’d just expect scattered thunderstorms across the area on Friday. However, it’s feasible that a slower moving band of heavier rain sets up somewhere near or east of Houston tomorrow and dumps some heavy rainfall.

The Weather Prediction Center has the eastern part of the Houston metro area in a borderline marginal/slight risk of excessive rainfall tomorrow, meaning heavy rain is possible. (NOAA)

The Weather Prediction Center of NOAA has the eastern fringe of the metro area not far from a “slight” risk (Level 2/4) of excessive rainfall Friday. While this is more likely to be directed into Louisiana, it’s entirely possible this sets up closer to Houston. So, we just want you to be aware of the risk of some locally heavy rainfall tomorrow. Thankfully, we didn’t see much of anything during Laura’s passage, so we have a good amount of room to absorb any rains.

As of right now, Eric and I are intending to take tomorrow off as a necessary recovery day. However, if it appears the rain risk will become more significant, we’ll chime in with an update. In the meantime, have yourselves a good evening.