Quick note: Many of you have reached out to us looking for book recommendations about weather. Well, we listened. Look for a post later this morning that has a handful of recommendations we hope you enjoy.
On to the weather. After some scattered showers and storms on Thursday, things will begin to calm down today, setting up a warm but pleasant weekend. A couple interesting notes about rainfall, courtesy of the NWS Houston office: First, officially, it’s the third wettest year on record (back to 1889) already for Houston. We only need 0.82″ of rain between now and New Year’s Eve to set a new record for wettest year in Houston. On the flip side, if Galveston manages to not receive 0.03″ of rain before tomorrow night, they’ll set a new record for driest September on record (back to 1872). It’s been a weird year.
Weekend
So we’ll keep mentioning a chance of a shower or thunderstorm today, but I think most of us will stay dry. Precipitable water, which is a good measure of how much moisture is available in the atmosphere, will drop off through the day today as we advect in drier air.
In English, that means chances of showers and thunderstorms should diminish today. It will not quite get to zero south of I-10, and I think the majority of us will stay dry. We’ll gradually usher in even drier air tonight, leading to comfortable dewpoints and low humidity on Saturday and completely shutting off rain chances. The weekend should be dry for the entire region.
Though the humidity will lower, the temperatures will stay relatively warm for the turn of the calendar to October, and we should see continued high temperatures in the upper 80s, with morning lows in the slightly more pleasant upper 60s.
Next Week
The week will start similar to what we’ve been seeing lately: Warm, humid, and with daily shower and storm chances. Monday and especially Tuesday may see a fair bit of shower activity around. Precipitable water recovers back up above 2″ then, which should lead to scattered downpours both days, but again, the higher chance looks like Tuesday right now.
Beyond Tuesday it gets a little interesting. That ridge over the East really flexes southward and westward. This ushers in drier air, which should help keep daytime temperatures pretty steady, but it may allow our nighttime lows to cool as the week goes on, with lower humidity. Not perfect, but a slight improvement over the status quo.
There may also be another weak front in there later next week that could lock in another nice day or two sometime toward the weekend. We’ll keep you posted.
Tropics
The National Hurricane Center dubbed the disturbance near Florida as Invest 99L yesterday. Looking at a satellite loop this morning, it’s fairly disorganized.
Most of the thunderstorm activity is strung out. There is still a fair bit of wind shear around also, so 99L is probably going to struggle. Still, a few inches of rain will be possible in Florida this weekend. But hopefully we don’t see much tropical development out of this one. A little of the moisture from this will find its way to Texas on Tuesday, which will contribute to our slightly higher storm chances then. But again, it shouldn’t be anything too serious.
There is nothing new to report on the system behind this one that some models have shown in the Caribbean or southeast Gulf late next week. They are struggling to develop it right now. It remains absolutely nothing we need to worry about in Texas, but it’s something we will keep loose tabs on just to be safe.
0.82 inches of rain in 3 months? I’d say the odds of that are pretty good – about as easy of a weather prediction as saying it will be hot in Houston next summer.
Excited to see your book recommendations. I’ve already learned a lot reading your posts each day and am hungry for more. The science of weather is fascinating.
I’ve never posted here before, but just wanted to say thanks for everything you have done and continue to do. You guys are amazing!!! (I should have said it sooner!)