Healthy chance of showers on Thursday and Friday

We’ve discussed the wet start to the month of July in Houston, and this has had the dual effect of keeping our lawns green as well as holding temperatures down a degree or so below normal for most of the area. Most evidence suggests the second half of the month will be considerably warmer and drier, so let’s enjoy the rain chances while they last.

Thursday

With high pressure kept at bay, and moisture levels pretty high, the region will probably see more widespread showers and thunderstorms today than we saw Wednesday. Probably about half of Houston will see rain, with accumulations of a few tenths of an inch. Partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon should limit high temperatures in the low 90s.

Thursday is probably the region’s best chance for widespread showers in quite awhile. (Pivotal Weather)

Friday and Saturday

These two days have the potential for more showers, but rain chances are probably only about 30 percent each day, as conditions won’t be quite as favorable for rain. As a result I think we can expect partly sunny skies, with highs in the low- to possibly mid-90s, and a few showers popping up during the day. Any rain is likely to be brief.

Sunday

One final chance for a few showers, but for the most part conditions should be sunny, and warm with highs in the mid-90s.

Next week

Forecast models are showing little (to nothing) in the way of rainfall for most of next week, at least during the work week. What we are likely to see, however, is another round of Saharan dust migrating from the tropical Atlantic, into the Gulf of Mexico, and ultimately into Texas. This “dust transport model” suggests concentrations will be quite high beginning on Monday. (Sunset alert!)

SKIRON model forecast for dust concentrations on Monday, July 16. (University of Athens)

Aside from the dust, the story of the week is likely to be temperatures, with highs pushing up into the upper-90s most likely. It will probably be the most summery week of summer 2018 in Houston.

2 thoughts on “Healthy chance of showers on Thursday and Friday

  1. Eleanor

    Off topic (though weather-related), do you guys know what was behind the terrible rains in Japan recently? I’m curious how the rainfall totals and rainfall rates compared to Harvey. The casualties are staggering. 🙁

    1. Matt Lanza

      It appears that a widespread 15-25″ fell, with isolated pockets of 30″+, including one spot that managed 70″ over a couple weeks (there is some terrain there, so that likely helped those places see such significant rainfall). There were places that saw 10″ in 3 hours and 20″+ in a day. So in some respects, it was similar to Harvey. The cause was, I believe, long duration tropical moisture getting pumped into Japan, exaggerated by a passing typhoon to the south. The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang has more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/10/japan-reeling-from-worst-flood-in-decades-weve-never-experienced-this-kind-of-rain-before/?utm_term=.47488d9beafa

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