Houston’s weather is on autopilot for the foreseeable future

Good morning! We will get into the weather in a moment. Just doing our public service announcement here: With the remainder of the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo being cancelled, we will obviously cease rodeo forecasts. We know how disappointing the cancellation is to so many people, us included. Local officials obviously determined that the risk is significant enough to take these precautions, and you’re definitely seeing that in many places right now. While not a meteorological event, there are so many parallels I keep finding between the information flow with COVID-19 and how we cover hurricanes or floods. Remember, as it is with weather, make sure you’re getting your information from reputable sources, and heed the advice of local officials. Harris County has a dashboard already setup that will have the latest information, both from a big picture and locally.

The only interjection we can really make is that there have been comments made by some folks that the threat will end once the weather warms up. They may be a bit overconfident. A colleague, Bob Henson, writing for Weather Underground discussed this in depth the other day, and I’d encourage you to read that article to get a better understanding of the actual science and potential scenarios of how weather may impact the progression of the virus. A lot of unknowns, a lot of weird stuff going on, and a lot of drastic measures being put in place to make an effort to flatten the curve. As we do with storms, we’ll get through it all. Eric and I will continue to provide our typical daily updates of course, though hopefully the weather doesn’t add to our woes in the weeks and months ahead.

Alright, on to the weather.

Today

Dense fog advisories are posted once again this morning along the coast and just inland, as we again have some fog in place. This is becoming “the norm” for now, and I would expect this continues to some extent off and on into next week.

Much like yesterday, the fog and clouds should slowly clear this morning, leading to probably a nice afternoon, albeit a warm one again.

High temperatures look toasty, mainly away from the coast today. (Pivotal Weather)

Look for highs in the 80s for most folks away from the coast with continued high humidity. Our normal high temperature today is 72° at IAH Airport. More impressively, our normal low is 52°, which we aren’t even in the same area code as right now.

Friday and weekend

So the chance of rain this weekend will probably be higher than it is today and was yesterday. But it will still probably be on the low side. Most of us should remain dry, but a few of us could see a shower on Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. The highest odds are probably still north of Houston, even north of Conroe. Look for more nighttime fog at the coast and a good deal of cloud cover each day. We should see at least a little sunshine here and there but perhaps a bit less than we’ve had lately.

High temperatures will be in the 70s to low-80s and low temperatures in the 60s to perhaps even near 70 degrees. Expect southerly winds of about 5 to 15 mph.

Next week

No big changes to next week’s forecast. It looks like much more of the same, to be quite frank. Odds of a cold front increase toward the weekend, but specifics and details on that are too far out and too fuzzy to really say much right now. So, look for morning clouds or fog, followed up by some occasional afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will probably warm into the 80s, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see a day or two in the mid-80s. Morning lows will continue in the muggy 60s. Rain chances? Probably minimal until the back half of the week. We’ll give you another update tomorrow.

17 thoughts on “Houston’s weather is on autopilot for the foreseeable future”

  1. “The only interjection we can really make is that there have been comments made by some folks that the threat will end once the weather warms up.”

    As you correctly point out, Matt, statements that warmer weather will subdue the virus are nothing but speculation. The CDC’s COVID-19 FAQ page currently says:

    It is not yet known whether weather and temperature impact the spread of COVID-19. Some other viruses, like the common cold and flu, spread more during cold weather months but that does not mean it is impossible to become sick with these viruses during other months. At this time, it is not known whether the spread of COVID-19 will decrease when weather becomes warmer. There is much more to learn about the transmissibility, severity, and other features associated with COVID-19 and investigations are ongoing.

    We’ll obviously continue to learn more about the disease in the near future, but anyone telling you for dead certain that summer will stop the thing in its tracks is uninformed or is a victim of wishful thinking.

    • Summer time may have more people outdoors, rather than breathing the same air in small indoor spaces. Also schools tend to be out in summer. These changes may reduce or slow transmission of the germs.

  2. Not so much that summer weather will stop COVID-19, rather by the time the summer season gets here the virus will be over. Keep up the good work.

  3. Tim L, agreed.
    Ellis R, not sure who you are referring to, But thank for bringing politics into the weather forecast .

    • I’m referring to you. And you brought politics in first when you repeated a false trump talking point and tried to pass it off as fact. Stop getting your corona virus information from sources that repeat trumps misinformation. Start getting it from actual medical experts.

      You will not find one reputable source saying corona virus will be “over” by summer. Only fact-free places like OAN and other “news” sites more interested in carrying trump’s water than in legit reporting.

      • What did Joe Biden tell the autoworker? I don’t watch Fox, CNN, or any of the other US “media” outlets. I prefer the BBC instead.
        A few of my sources are:
        – https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
        – World Health Organization
        – US CDC and OSHA
        – Houston Health Dept
        – Benchmarking within industry
        Fact of the matter is that the number of cases is leveling off in China, per Johns Hopkins data (or do you take offense to this source because it has the pluralization of Trump’s middle name in it? Where do YOU draw the line?) That is after ~2 months. Two months from today won’t be the start of summer time. By the official start of summer or at least mid-summer, things should be settling down.

        • It is leveling off in China only because they took drastic measures, early enough. It remains to be seen whether we are capable of the same.

        • Taken from Matt’s Weather Underground source (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/coronavirus-and-seasonality-what-we-know-and-dont-know):
          –Will SARS-CoV2 exhibit a similar seasonality? “It may ultimately, but right now, given that it is a newly emerged virus to which most of the world is susceptible, I don’t think it will abate in April,” Shaman said. “Rather, it might ramp down in the U.S. in late May or June.”

          This type of delayed seasonal response tends to occur when a new strain of type A flu spreads across the globe (pandemic influenza), according to Shaman.

          “Due to high susceptibility, the pandemic virus continues to circulate through late May or June, is limited in summer, and ramps up again in September,” he said. “If SARS-CoV-2 follows suit, we could have a break from it in the summer, which would buy some time to further prepare. However, it would still be in circulation in the Southern Hemisphere…and in the tropics throughout the year, in all likelihood.”

          Importantly, Shaman added, “All this assumes SARS-CoV-2 has a strong innate seasonality.” If not, he said, “it may just continue through summer unabated.”–

          So, even some of the experts are on the fence (see Shaman).

          However, as Bluto said, “What? Over? Did you say ‘over’? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? H-ll no!…”

  4. THANK YOU, Matt and Eric for using your platform to lift up reputable sources regarding covid19! Count me among the many for whom this feels like a storm brewing, who wanted you all to weigh in.

    Also, please consider linking folks to the excellent explainer from Ars Technica. Thanks again, Robin.

  5. Posting this everywhere I can, anyone and everyone needs to read this superb article on Medium regarding COVID-19 and the basic math behind understanding the spread and need to enforce social distancing absolutely as early as possible. I applaud the mayor (for once) for doing the right thing and declaring an emergency and shutting down the Rodeo. Hopefully anyone reading this article will reach the same conclusions. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

    • THANK YOU, Jason, for linking this compelling piece from Tomas Pueyo. I +was+ planning to jet off for spring break with my kids. Today, my employer sent us all home, and we’re staying home for the foreseeable future. I implore other readers here to stay home, too. I fear for the treasured people, especially seniors, we’re about to lose.

  6. On an entirely different note, what are the current drought readings for the state? I see that I need to start watering beds or plants won’t be strong enough for the summer.

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