This post concerns Hurricane Dorian, which presents no threat to Texas, but which we are covering due to general public interest. For Houston, for the foreseeable future, we can expect hot days, low rain chances, and no taste of fall.
Crossing over very warm seas and not having to battle much in the way of wind shear, Hurricane Dorian‘s maximum winds increased to 180mph on Sunday morning. As central pressures continued to fall, further intensification seems to be possible today. Unfortunately, as it is reaching peak intensity, Dorian is now beginning to cross over the northern Bahamas. Its crawling westward movement will prolong exposure on these islands to wind gusts of up to 200mph, very high seas, and heavy rainfall. Areas such as Freeport in the Bahamas will very likely see extreme levels of damage.
Beyond Monday, we still expect Dorian to make a northern turn as a trough of low pressure currently over the upper Midwest sweeps down and pulls the tropical system north. The ultimate track will depend on the timing of this trough, as well as any wobbles in Dorian’s path over the next couple of days. These two factors will determine whether the coastal regions of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas escape with a near miss on catastrophic conditions—which seems more likely at present—or face the brunt of Dorian’s intensity.
Dorian probably will maintain its Category-4 and Category-5 intensity for the next couple of days as it undergoes a period of eyewall replacement cycles, when the inner eyewall weakens and then re-forms. By Tuesday or so, as it begins to pull north and at least its outer bands begin to interact with the continental United States, it should begin a weakening trend.
Dear God….there are no words….😞
Father God hear our prayers for intercession with this oceanborn storm. We pray a hedge of protection over people and animals in the path of the hurricane. In Jesus holy name, amen.
That is a wonderful prayer. Thank you for posting.
Amen
Amen
Amen
Matt, congratulations! The Wall Street Journal mentioned you by name! Awesome!
Amen!
(and thank you once again Eric)
If I was living in Palm Beach or just due north of there, I’d be hoping big-time the forecasters have this big boy pegged down. Palm Beach is just 90 miles west of Freeport. The storm still seems to be moving fairly fast and mostly due west. The later the turn, the more likely Florida will see some impacts (and they may not be prepared). Either way, poor Bahamas. There are several hundred thousand people on those islands and they are going to see incredible damage most likely.
I think we can say goodbye to the Bahamas — at least the northern isles…
My thoughts are with the people of the Bahamas and all others threatened by this horrifyingly powerful storm. Thank you, Space City Weather, for continuing to give this storm full coverage.
As a former Houstonian who now splits living between Charleston, SC and Durham, NC, I truly appreciate your posts about Dorian. Your coverage is always more insightful than the usual coverage that is available.
Thanks guys. I’m trying to think of the company this monster keeps. Labor Day Hurricane, Camille, Allen, Gilbert and Wilma come to mind. God help everyone that has to endure this Catastrophic Storm. Our Prayers are with you
Let’s all root for a “fish storm”, i.e. it stays away from a direct coastal hit.
Thanks so much for covering this. I have family in South Florida and really appreciate having updates with the usual Space City Weather level of quality on Dorian.
I’m a Texan, native Houstonian who moved out of state some years ago, but still have family & dear friends there. Love being a part of spacecityweather community & staying abreast of the weather where my dear ones live. I’m in NC so truly appreciate your Hurricane updates when they don’t involve Houston. That’s commitment. You guys understand your audience so well.
Thank you! Always appreciate your weather commentary & education. Routinely more robust & reliable than so many others.
You were my source through Harvey and now in Florida. Thank you so much for the post. I trust your guidance more than any other source.
Thanks again, Eric, for continuing to cover the storm over a holiday weekend. Praying for that distinct northern turn sooner rather than later.
Currently living southeast of Raleigh but lived in Houston my entire life. Have been a fan of your page from before Harvey. That said, appreciate your thoughts on Dorian as I have been unable to find another calm voice watching the storm’s behavior! Hope you continue to share posts until it’s gone!