As expected, Sunday saw a burst of heavier rain showers across the area, with a few parts southern and eastern parts of the region (such as League City) picking up 3 inches. Fortunately these heavier rains moved on, because in some cases the rainfall rates exceeded 5 inches/hour over 15-minute periods. We’ll see the potential for more of the same today before our weather pattern takes a turn toward drier (although still very humid) conditions.
Plenty of atmospheric moisture remains spread across the Houston area today, but there’s not as much impetus for it to rise in the atmosphere. For this reason, I think we’ll see the potential for heavy showers on Monday, but they probably won’t be quite so widespread as we saw on Sunday. Nevertheless, where strong storms do develop, they will certainly be capable of causing some temporary street flooding. For this reason, beginning around noon today, it’s probably best to check the radar before making a trip across town. Mostly cloudy skies should help keep daytime temperatures at 90 degrees, or just below.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Atmospheric moisture levels (presently at about the 99th percentile for this time of year) should fall beginning Tuesday. With less moisture to work with, and high pressure moving in from the north, we expect to see a gradually diminished rain chances beginning Tuesday and Wednesday—probably only a 30 to 40 percent chance of moderate showers. With sunnier skies, we can correspondingly expect highs to nudge back up into the steamy lower- or mid-90s.
Thursday and Friday
By the end of the work week, I expect rain chances to be pretty slim, although non-zero, as mostly sunny skies come to dominate Houston’s weather. Expect highs in the mid-90s.
Saturday and Sunday
Unlike the pattern we sometimes see during the summer, however, at this time I don’t expect high pressure to build completely over the region. This means the forecast for this weekend remains somewhat in question, and we can’t rule out the return of some scattered showers for Saturday and Sunday. I feel pretty confident in predicting heat in the mid-90s, however.
The Atlantic tropics have seen a burst of early July activity, but nothing that resembles any kind of a threat to Texas. Hurricane Beryl flared up on Friday, and then died out as it reached the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Chris remained well off the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States.
As a reminder, the peak of hurricane season for Texas begins in about three weeks.