Only modest rain chances this week, but we see some promising signs in the longer-term forecast

Good morning. As Matt wrote last week, our region’s start to fall is the driest on record. Unfortunately, I do not expect that to change much this week, although some modest rain chances will return. This week will also be warmish, with a few days flirting with 90 degrees. However, I’m starting to see some potential for our weather to turn wetter and cooler about one week from today. Emphasis on potential.

The state of Texas is enjoying a pleasant start to Columbus Day with these sunrise temperatures. (Weather Bell)


Temperatures have generally fallen into the low 60s this morning, although the usual locations further inland are seeing lows in the upper 50s. Today should be similar to Sunday in that we see highs in the upper 80s with mostly sunny skies, and light northeast winds of 5 to 10 mph. As some dry air holds on most of the city should drop into the mid-60s tonight, with clear skies.


Highs and skies will be similar to Monday, with temperatures in the upper 80s and mostly sunny skies. However we’re going to see southeasterly winds and a corresponding increase in humidity. As a result we can expect lows Tuesday night to be warmer, possibly only dropping to around 70 degrees.


There is an honest-to-goodness chance of rain on Wednesday, but unfortunately it’s probably only about 30 percent. The forecast has trended drier, in terms of rain, despite a decent influx of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Some areas may pick up a quarter of an inch of rain, or so, but I think much of the region will only see some clouds. At the same time, this moisture will really bump up humidity levels, so this is going to feel like a pretty warm summer day with highs perhaps in the low 90s. It’s difficult to see too many more days like this in 2022, so you summer lovers make sure and soak this one up.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Friday. (Weather Bell)

Thursday and Friday

A weak front should push into the area early on Thursday. Don’t expect miracles from this one, but it should be enough to drop temperatures back into the upper 80s, with drier air, and push nighttime lows into the 60s. Mornings and evenings should feel pretty nice.

Saturday and Sunday

The front should wash out by the weekend, so we’re going to see humidity levels start to return. I’d expect highs somewhere in the mid- to upper-80s with mostly sunny skies. I’m honestly not sure about the potential for rain. With the onshore flow I think it’s possible, but for now I’d peg daily chances at only 20 or maybe 30 percent, with perhaps a bit higher likelihood on Sunday. We’ll see.

Next week

We’re getting to the limit of weather forecast models by Monday or Tuesday of next week, but there is a decent signal for potentially a stronger front to push into Houston around that time, accompanied by a pretty healthy chance of rain. If this happens I think much of the area could see a nice soaking, followed by cooler weather. The bottom line is that right now we may be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel for a very dry fall. Hopefully it’s not an oncoming train.

12 thoughts on “Only modest rain chances this week, but we see some promising signs in the longer-term forecast”

  1. 35 years in Texas has taught me. When new people move here and ask “when does the heat finally break for good” I reply “Halloween, but plan to wear shorts at Thanksgiving”

    • After the tentative forecast of a strong front for this coming weekend evaporated, I’m not counting on one next week either, the NWS long range outlook calls for a warmer than average fall across the US again this year and that would appear to be the safe bet. If we’re lucky maybe we’ll get a short-lived, moderate cool down the last week of October or the beginning of November. I’ll be happy if Halloween is at least dry and not in the upper 80s.

  2. Does anyone really enjoy cooler and wetter weather. It’s no fun to be outside and all soggy and chilly. The heat is much more pleasant, than sitting at work all day with wet feet.

    • Well when theres heat for the majority of the year for SE TX, cooler and weather is a much needed change.

      • Yes, there are those of us who truly love cooler weather! 😂

        I prefer cooler and sunny, but I enjoy the rainy days of fall as well. It’s my favorite season.

    • I enjoy having a lush yard and garden without having to water it all the time. I also enjoy the lovely cool breeze in a storm or a cold front. I also enjoy rain per se. I also enjoy not having to run the AC, which means temps need to be cooler outside than inside. I also enjoy the fall smell in the air after a cold front. I also enjoy the weather changing from season to season. So, yeah.

    • A fall evening with rain, light or heavy, is always a treat and an occasion for a relaxing evening. Makes me slow down and appreciate the weather.

  3. Hi Eric,

    Can yall talk about this new disturbance that’s moving across the Yucatan and is expected to be in the southern Gulf on Tuesday/Wednesday?

  4. Why is there no talk about the incredibly dry conditions all across the entire area between the Rockies and the Appalachians? The drought monitor is bad right now, with 77% of the CONUS at least abnormally dry; it will be even worse next week. Houston is not particularly dry compared to the rest of the US.

    The only thing I have heard mentioned is one thing on about how the Mississippi is near record low levels, harming shipping and further increasing inflation.

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