In brief: This post covers our official summer outlook for Houston, forecasting temperature and precipitation for June, July, and August. We think this summer will be hot, of course. But we have some hope that it won’t be exceptionally hot like 2023 and 2024.
When is summer?
Let us begin this post by defining what summer is in Houston. If we go strictly by the equinox, summer begins on June 21 and will end on September 22. Some readers may think, well, actually it feels a lot like summer outside right now. However, a person on Threads has the right of it with this sentiment:
It can feel like summer in Houston from mid-May through mid-October. However, I don’t like that definition because parts of May can still feel spring-like (here’s hoping a front makes it next week) and we also can start to have some hope for real cool fronts starting in mid-September. Therefore, we prefer the meteorological definition of summer in Houston: June, July, and August. And since we’re two weeks from June 1, let’s get to the outlook.
Temperatures
Let me tell you, the presence of a fairly persistent ridge in mid-May, and temperatures solidly in the mid-90s, does not give Matt and I the warm and fuzzies about the upcoming summer. It engenders some dread. However, perhaps all is not lost.
An often important player, El Niño or La Niña, is unlikely to be a factor this summer. We generally expect neutral conditions to persist through August. For this reason we can look at trends over the last several years, as well as statistical modeling, to get an idea of what to expect for the upcoming summer.
The last few years, especially 2023 and 2024, have seen exceptional heat in Houston. We have set all kinds of records in daytime and especially nighttime temperatures. That trend, in concert with this month’s early onset of temperatures in the mid-90s (we have set multiple high temperature records this week) is very concerning. However, when we look at the seasonal modeling, the forecast is for near-normal temperatures in June, July, and August.
So what to make of all of this? I like the solution from NOAA’s seasonal temperature outlook (shown above), which predicts a likelihood of above normal temperatures this summer. However we can have some hope, I think, that this summer won’t be frying-pan hot like the last two years.
Precipitation
I’m going to throw my hands up in the air on this one. The seasonal modeling isn’t much help here (some models are very dry, and some less so). As is often the case, whether we see a drought this summer will come down to a couple of factors. The first is high pressure, if we get persistent systems that set up for weeks at a time, we can pretty quickly slip into drought conditions during the hot summer months (the region is doing mostly fine now). And secondly, will we see low pressure systems, depressions, or tropical storms and hurricanes from the Gulf? We certainly don’t want the latter two, but often times the only way to get meaningful rain in July and August is from tropical lows.
NOAA, for what its worth, is calling for near normal, to slightly above normal precipitation this summer in Houston. We shall see, I guess. The trick in Houston in the summer is to somehow get some rain, but not a ton of rain, all at once. Hard to do in August, I’m afraid.
A message from our longtime partner, Reliant
As we are being reacquainted with true summer heat, school is winding down for the year and we’re planning summer vacations, we want to help Space City Weather readers prepare for the season ahead. Here are some resources from Reliant you can leverage to save energy and money this summer:
- Now is a great time to make sure your home and family are ready for a long summer with actionable preparation tips and low-cost maintenance upgrades you can do in advance.
- Check out these seasonal energy efficiency tips with specific ways to save money by helping conserve energy during peak hours.
- Lastly, this one is for homeowners looking to better manage their home! Check out the new Smarter Home Bundle, which is available to qualifying new or existing Reliant customers. By adding this on to your electricity plan, you receive a free Vivint Doorbell Camera Pro and Smart Thermostat with complimentary white-glove installation, plus access to exclusive energy insights in the all-in-one Vivint app. This innovative offer helps Texans take control of their home’s comfort, security and energy usage all in one place.
Thanks for the informative look-ahead!
I’ll get through it like I do every summer… one hot day at a time.
For me the hardest part of summer isn’t the heat and humidity. It’s the boredom of unchanging weather day after week after month coupled with daily eyeballing the Atlantic Basin and even the Pacific for the kind of change we can do without.
Spending 18 years in Phoenix they basically have two seasons. And so much sunshine it actually gets really boring and you pray for rain to break the boredom. Moved into this area 20-years ago and deal with it like toad. One hot day at a time
As much as I despise the unbearably hot summers, I do appreciate the steering effect the high pressure ridges have on tropical weather. I do wish we could at least get the cooler overnight lows back. Waking up to 85° temps always makes the heat waves seem worse to me.
The biggest worry with summer coming is hurricanes. If anyone remembers last summer when Hurricane Berral came and they said it was going to be down south, near the Mexico border, and then, at the last minute, they said, “Look out your window! It’s here!” And the terrible gusting winds that we have today remind me of the destructive dercho of last year, and also remind me of the Great Fifth Ward Fire of 1912, when the entire city was destroyed and built from the ground up as the flames carried on wings of wind across the bayous and engulfed the entire city.
YCC reported the Houston NOAA office is still without leadership. No one wants to fulfill the empty positions because they’ll be on probationary status. That won’t help things.
“..also remind me of the Great Fifth Ward Fire of 1912..”
You are that old? Good grief, well done for sticking it out.
If you choose to live in Houston don’t obsess about the heat. Most evenings are pleasant.
The temperatures may revert back to historical norms but if we get into drought conditions earlier in the season than usual it’ll be worse, longer and we should expect wildfires closer to home.
Drawing conclusions from that outlook it looks like should it verify that ridges of high pressure will stay just far enough away to give us normal summertime thunderstorms but just close enough to scare the tar out of us this summer.
Yuck.
I wish we could at least poke a few holes in the sky to get some rain south of Houston proper. There has been almost no rain where I live since January.
To me last summer seemed pretty normal (the new normal). If we can get temperatures and rainfall like last summer I’d be happy. I know last year was the hottest on record but at least there was only about 1 week of temperatures in the 100s.
Yeah, 2024 seemed fine, because 2023 was literal hell.
I describe Houston Summer as follows
May – Hmmm getting a bit warm
June – I went walking and took a shower in the process
July – dang forget cooking on the grates of the grill save the LP and cook on the outside of the grill
Aug – Please someone take this wet sock off my head
Sept – Is it October yet
Oct – You mean there is such a thing of a night below 80 degrees?