In brief: Today’s update digs a little deeper into our lack of rainfall during the second half of summer, and whether we’re going to see relief any time soon. The answer is maybe, and that especially coastal areas have a healthy chance of rain this weekend. Then, by early next week, passage of a decent fall cool front looks increasingly likely.

Drying soils in late summer

Houston started out this summer with plenty of rain. You may remember Hurricane Beryl in July? But by the end of that month conditions turned notably drier. And but for a wetter spell in late August, the last two months have been quite dry. Our soils feel the lack of rain especially keenly during August and September, as these are often the hottest months of the year, which dries things out much more quickly. Looking at the last 60 days, we can see that much of the Houston area received less than 50 percent of normal rainfall, and some western areas less than 25 percent.

So far this has not resulted in drought-like conditions—something for which we can thank Beryl. However, in the latest update from the US Drought Monitor, the northern two-thirds of the Houston region are classified as being “abnormally dry.” This is just a step short of falling into a drought. I write all of that to say we could use some rainfall this month. Our next chance comes this weekend, but unfortunately it looks like the highest odds for rainfall will be closer to the coast, areas which generally are doing OK with rainfall. Would that I had better news.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

Warm, but calm, weather will continue through much of this week. We can expect sunny days, high but not excessively so humidity levels, and sunny skies. Daytime temperatures will be in the low 90s, with overnight temperatures in the low 70s. Winds will be light all three days, from the north and east, typically not getting much above 5 mph. You probably won’t believe me, but we’re coming to the end of the time of year when we see long strings of 90-degree days, so if you like pool or beach time, this is a good week, and weekend for that.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

As noted above, our region will see some better rain chances starting Friday and lasting through the weekend. In the absence of high pressure, and with increasing levels of moisture in the atmosphere, we should see some clouds start to build on Friday, with partly to mostly cloudy conditions on Saturday, before more sunshine on Sunday. The models have gotten a little more bullish with rain chances for the weekend, especially on Saturday. However, you should set your expectations accordingly, especially if you live inland of Interstate 10.

My sense is that there is still a lot of uncertainty in the rainfall forecast so expect some change. However, if you live in a coastal county your chances of rain are probably higher than 50 percent on Saturday, and a bit lesser on Friday and Sunday. Further inland, along Interstate 10, rain chances are probably about 40 percent on Saturday, and the further you go from the coast, the lower things get.

High temperatures this weekend will be on the order of 90 degrees during the daytime, with a decent amount of humidity, and lows generally in the mid-70s.

Next week

Confidence is increasing in the arrival of a cool front early next week, likely some time on Monday or Monday night. It is not guaranteed, but there is now support in a lot of our modeling guidance for a decent push of drier and cooler air. I would expect mostly sunny weather next week, with highs in the 80s and lows in the lower 60s, but this is going to depend on the extent of the frontal push. A majority of the colder air with this system is going to get shoved east, rather than south, so we’ll have to wait and see how much relief we get. Despite those caveats, however, I’m optimistic. A little fall weather would hit the spot.

Tropics

There’s a lot going on out there, and if you want all the details we’ve got them on The Eyewall. But if you’re simply wondering, “What does this mean for Texas?” the answer is, not much. It’s been a week since we called a halt to the Texas hurricane season, and I still feel pretty good about that prediction.

In brief: Summer is not over. In today’s post we explain why the end of September has been very hot, and why that’s not going to change much this week. We’ll also take a look at the weekend forecast, when there are a lot of outdoor events in the metro area. Finally, could we see a real front next week?

Wake me up when September ends

Fifteen of the last sixteen days in September have recorded high temperatures of 90 degrees or higher. (On the single day that did not, the high reached 89 degrees). This has occurred despite a front coming through a couple of days ago.

Why has the daytime heat persisted? Partly because our early fall fronts tend to bring drier air, but not much colder air. So our days remain warm because drier air heats up more efficiently. The primary benefit of the front, however, is that it has taken about 10 degrees out of nighttime temperatures, which has been nice.

October is not going to bring immediate relief, but as our air modifies somewhat this week with higher humidity, we’ll see slightly cooler days by around Wednesday, and correspondingly warmer nights in the mid-70s. Later this month we can almost certainly count on more emphatic fronts to bring cooler daytime weather.

Monday

High temperatures today should, once again, reach the mid-90s for much of the metro area away from the coast (where highs will be a few degrees cooler). Skies will be sunny, with almost nary a cloud in the sky. Winds will be light, generally from the northeast. With dewpoints mostly in the 60s, the air won’t exactly feel dry, but it won’t be Houston-humid either. Lows tonight will drop into the low 70s for most locations.

Tuesday

A similar day to Monday, albeit with possibly a few more clouds in the sky.

Wednesday and Thursday

Expect more sunshine, with daytime highs generally in the low-90s, and nighttime temperatures in the mid-70s. Really, there’s not much more to say.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

So there are a lot of fairly big events in Houston this weekend, and a lot of eyes on the weather. On Saturday there’s the Komen Houston Race for the Cure in Sam Houston Park, as well as the Southern Smoke Festival in Discovery Green. What I can tell you right now is a forecast for what will probably happen, but not a forecast for what will absolutely happen.

Our atmospheric pattern will become somewhat more upset by Friday, opening the door to a few passing disturbances. Effectively, this means that we’re likely to see daily rain chances on the order of 20 to 30 percent during the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday period. Chances will be low- to non-existent for areas inland of Interstate 10, and at the higher end along the coast.

Friday and Saturday are likely to see partly sunny skies, whereas Sunday looks to be mostly sunny at this point. High temperatures will probably range from the upper-80s to lower-90s. The risk to the forecast is that the atmospheric disturbances are a little more pronounced than expected, leading to more widespread rain. But at this point the most likely outcome is a fairly warm, mostly rain-free early October weekend that feels more like late summer than early fall.

Next week

There is a fairly decent signal in the global models for a decent front to arrive on Monday or Tuesday of next week, but since I’m not yet certain on its passage I don’t want to give anyone false hopes. Needless to say, next week’s weather in Houston will be determined by whether said front makes it all the way through Houston.

Tropics

We’ve had lots of questions about the tropical blob in forecast maps from the National Hurricane Center. Yes, we’re continuing to keep tabs on it. No, there still is not any indication that an organized tropical system is likely to directly impact the Texas coast over the next week or 10 days. For more information, check out our post from Sunday.

In brief: We are sharing a post we just published on our tropical companion site The Eyewall that talks about the next system expected in the Gulf this coming week. At present, we think it will likely stay east of Texas and is more a concern east of New Orleans to Florida. Still, we’ll watch it to be sure. We also have some links for folks that may want to help our neighbors in Appalachia that are dealing with an absolute catastrophe due to Helene.

Our thoughts are with folks impacted by Hurricane Helene. From what I have read and seen and heard about some parts of western North Carolina and Tennessee, it’s really, really bad. Worse than might be known at this point. Speaking as someone from Houston, which was has dealt with floods and then been flooded with resources after storms, these more rural communities are likely to be dealing with this for a long time and will need a *lot* of help in the weeks and months ahead, as the resources and media attention don’t always focus on places like that.

Keep in mind that after catastrophes like this, “stuff” is nice to donate but what is really needed is money. So consider that if you’re looking for ways to help. The United Way of North Carolina has a fund setup specific for Helene. Blue Ridge NPR has a nice list of organizations you can donate to as well. There is also the East Tennessee Foundation for folks there. Please post any other organizations in these areas in the comments.

As of late Sunday morning, there are still about 2.5 million customers without power from Florida to Ohio. This is down from a peak of around 4.5 million. It will take a long time to get to some areas in mountainous and rural western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee though, and some of these locations could be without power for weeks; the damage is just that complete in these areas.

Storm surge is the deadliest aspect of a landfalling hurricane, but inland flooding can dwarf that sometimes. We’ve seen it time and again in the last several years. If you live inland in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, or Northeast, you need to be prepared for hurricanes too.

There will be a lot more to discuss with Helene which we’ll save for another day. But suffice to say we have seen the worst-case scenario play out a lot more often in recent years. And this is going to be a big discussion point going forward both in how forecasts are communicated and how communities prepare for storms. You can’t rely just on the known lessons from past disasters anymore.

Forecast this week

The upper low and remnants of Helene will continue to produce generally light showers across the Midwest and East the next couple days before finally being ushered off to the east later this week. There will be pockets of steadier rain though, particularly in Virginia and West Virginia. Total rainfall over the next 5 days could add up to a couple inches there.

Localized flash flooding is possible today and tomorrow in the mountains there or Shenandoah Valley. These areas were not as severely impacts as areas to the south, but they remain vulnerable to localized flash flooding impacts.

Gulf & Caribbean: Something to watch

So what comes next? Unfortunately, the NHC now has a 50 percent chance of development somewhere between the Gulf and northwest Caribbean over the next 7 days.

For our many readers in Texas, at this point, I would not expect this disturbance to come this far north and west. It will take at least the next 3 to 4 days to develop, and by the time it matures enough, it appears a cold front is headed toward the Gulf that will likely carry this back to the north and east. What this means for places from New Orleans through Florida is still a bit unclear. Modeling is sort of all over the place. At this point with Helene, we had basically two very distinct camps, one that buried the storm near the Yucatan and another (that got it right) carrying it north and northeast as a stronger storm. For this system, we have a similar sort of mixing of outcomes but there’s not exactly a distinct grouping of camps. In other words, there’s a good deal of uncertainty. The GFS ensembles are mixed, with some favoring a stronger storm headed back toward Florida and another group that ends up weaker. Some modeling doesn’t develop this at all. The ICON and European AI models generally show slower development and slow movement.

Given the uncertainty here, it’s important to continue to monitor this over the next couple days, especially in the eastern Gulf. But I will say that the more mixed nature of things in modeling makes me feel that a Helene redux is unlikely in this scenario. That said, keep watching. Impacts, assuming the system develops would likely occur next weekend.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic: Kirk to come

We currently have two active systems, Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce. Neither are direct threats to land.

Both storms should lose tropical characteristics over the next 3 to 4 days and dissipate. Isaac will become part of a larger storm just north of the British Isles, as is periodically the case with North Atlantic storms.

Meanwhile, there are two additional areas to watch in the eastern Atlantic. First, there is Invest 90L, which looks like it’s ready to go off to the races. This one should turn northwest and north, generally following Joyce.

The next name up is Kirk. Although this one is expected to go out to sea it’s worth keeping a side eye on for the Caribbean and Bermuda at least.

Behind 90L we look to have another disturbance in that cloud cover back off Africa. This is not expected to develop quickly meaning that it could come a bit farther west across the Atlantic. I might say that this one is more concerning in some aspects that what should become Kirk. If this can sneak west enough, it may find its own little environment to get going in. There’s not a ton of model support for this one either way, but interests in the Caribbean should at least keep an eye on it over the next 5 to 7 days as it comes west.

So over the next 7 to 10 days we likely have at least one more Atlantic storm and one more Caribbean or Gulf system. We may get a third storm in the Atlantic toward the end of that time horizon. Getting to (L)eslie or (M)ilton would put us at 12 or 13 storms for the season with a good 3 to 4 weeks of potential to go. Still far short of preseason expectations but somewhat less of an error. We’ll watch everything over the next couple weeks and keep you posted.