In brief: While the probability of severe weather is lower today, the Houston region is still likely to see the development of storms later this morning, lasting through the afternoon hours. Please be weather-aware if you’re out and about today.

Welcome to June, and the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. Speaking of which, on our companion site The Eyewall, Matt lays out some reasons by you should be wary, but not decidedly worried about what’s expected to be a frenetic season. The good news is that things look quiet for now.

Today’s weather may not be quiet in Houston, however. As of 9:30 am this morning, a mass of showers and thunderstorms has developed to the southwest of Houston, near Palacios and Matagorda Bay. Generally, I expect these storms to lift to the north-northeast into the metro area later this morning and throughout the afternoon hours.

What does that mean? If you have activities planned from around 11 am to 7 pm today, you should be weather-aware. Considering variables such as atmospheric instability, I don’t think we’re looking at bedlam. Yes, there’s the potential for small hail or damaging winds, but conditions are not ideal for severe weather. So it’s a possibility. Perhaps a bigger concern is that some of the storms today may be slow-movers, so a few parts of Houston may see some rain bullseyes of 2 to 4 inches and some street flooding. For most of us, however, I think the impact will be less. In any case, it does appear as though things will start to clear out with the loss of daytime heating this evening.

I don’t feel overly confident in the forecast for Sunday, but it does seem possible that we could see some scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, again, with daytime heating. Coverage should be less than today. If the forecast changes significantly for later today or Sunday, we’ll update as warranted. If not, we’ll see you on Monday morning.

In brief: Expect quiet weather this evening, but the Houston region is likely to see another round of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, and possibly Sunday as well before high pressure takes control.

Good afternoon. The round of strong to severe thunderstorms that worked its way through Houston this morning has helped work over the atmosphere such that we’re seeing quiet conditions this afternoon. Due to this more stable atmosphere, we are likely to see continued fair weather this evening and into the overnight hours—which is good news if you have outdoor plans, graduation celebrations, or other activities.

The question becomes, then, what happens on Saturday?

Although Friday night into early Saturday morning will most likely be calm, that does not mean we’re done with storm chances. It looks as though we’ll see an additional round of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Some of these could become severe, but I anticipate they will be less severe than those on Friday morning, with the main threat being damaging winds, and possibly some slight chances for hail. In terms of timing, I expect these storms to flare up during the mid-morning hours in coastal counties before spreading inland. Heavy rainfall may briefly cause some street flooding. I’m hopeful we’ll see a reprieve in stormy weather on Saturday evening, and again during the overnight hours.

As for Sunday, storm chances will diminish, but I’m not ready to write them off entirely as high pressure won’t really be in place yet. Another round of showers looks to be possible, but not overly likely, during the morning hours of Sunday. The rest of next week still looks mostly sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-90s.

We’ll have another update on Saturday morning to fine tune the storm forecast.

In brief: Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds will push across the area through the morning. Street flooding and some scattered power outages are a good possibility. Additional storms are likely this weekend.

This morning

A squall line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms is moving into the area as we post this. Heavy rain, frequent lightning, localized street flooding, and wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph are a good bet as this pushes through.

While these storms are not quite as severe as what we saw back on Tuesday this week, this will likely set the day off on the wrong foot. It wouldn’t be the worst idea to delay your morning commute until these pass. Most wind gusts have been 35 to 45 mph recently as these pass, which is relatively standard for strong storms here. Still, given the area’s sensitivity of late, some scattered power outages may occur in parts of the area.

This afternoon

The morning storms will clear off to the south and east. Since the timing of these storms clearing occurs in the morning hours, the atmosphere may not have enough time to recover this afternoon. While I wouldn’t rule out additional showers or thunderstorms in spots this afternoon, the worst of the action will hopefully be confined to the morning. After a rain-cooled morning, temperatures should recover into the 80s this afternoon. Eric will update later today on any changes.

Tonight & Saturday

Look for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms tonight or Saturday. The exact timing and location remain frustrating to us in terms of predicting. But we are not done yet, that much we know. Some model guidance has a fair bit of storm activity tonight and Saturday, though mostly not severe and rain-focused. But this will be a period we continue to watch for storminess.

Sunday

Support for thunderstorms should be about ready to exit starting Sunday. I still think there’s enough juice and disturbances left to fire off another round of storms around the area, along with heavy rain and perhaps gusty winds. But the hope is that these will become a little less frequent. Highs in the 80s to near 90 degrees, lows in the upper-70s.

Next week

Storms have tended to move around the periphery of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico that has provided them with absolutely punishing, extreme, record heat this month. As that ridge expands a little next week, we should see storms lift back to the north some each afternoon or evening. So favored areas will be north toward Huntsville or even north of there. We’ll see an uptick in temperatures with low-90s possibly shifting toward mid-90s by mid to late week.

The more noteworthy item for next week will be a disturbance or even some kind of cool front that arrives later in the week. If that happens and pushes off to our south and east as shown, there is the chance that we set the stage for much, much nicer, less humid weather for a couple days next weekend. I would not rule out a morning low in the 60s in the Houston area at this point next Friday or Saturday. It’ll still be plenty hot each afternoon, but the mornings may be refreshing. Maybe. We’ll see!

In brief: In the absence of high pressure, Houston’s atmosphere remains open to the passing of shortwave disturbances over the coming days. At this point Friday looks like it could see the most organized showers and thunderstorms, and the greatest chance of damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall. By Sunday storm chances start to wane, with next week looking warmer and mostly sunny.

Thursday

Skies will be partly sunny today, with high temperatures in the upper 80s. Like on Wednesday, this daytime heating should lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms during the period of 3 to 9 pm. Some of these could become severe. However, at this time I think chances are better along and north of Interstate 10, rather than closer to the coast. (Speaking of coastal areas, I wanted to shout-out the senior class of Clear Creek High School, where I’ve gotten to know a lot of great kids. Enjoy graduation this evening!) Lows tonight will be in the upper 70s.

Like on Wednesday, we’ll be monitoring the potential for storm development closely, and if the forecast for today or Friday changes significantly we will update the site accordingly this afternoon.

Friday

At this point it looks like a more organized round of storms will move into the Houston area on Friday morning, likely sweeping into Houston around sunrise, give or take. This system will offer the best chance of severe weather, including damaging winds and hail. Depending on the severity of this system, there may be a second round of storms with daytime heating in the afternoon. (I.e. if the morning storms are weaker, there will be a better chance of a second round later in the day). Bottom line: If you need to be out and about tomorrow morning, be weather aware.

I would guess that most of Houston see an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain through Friday, but my concern is for higher bullseyes in stronger thunderstorms. At this point, Friday evening looks to see a break in showers. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s.

Saturday

Our atmosphere will remain unsettled into the weekend, especially for Saturday. I don’t have much confidence in the details yet, but we could see another round of showers during the daytime on Saturday. These storms, at this point, do not look particularly severe. Highs, otherwise, should be around 90 degrees with partly sunny skies.

Sunday

We may see some additional showers on Sunday morning, but I’m far from confident in that. Skies, otherwise, should be partly sunny with temperatures in the low 90s. If you have outdoor plans later in the day or evening on Sunday, I’d feel at least somewhat confident in them.

Next week

As high pressure settles in next week we’ll revert to mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures. Highs should be pushing into the mid-90s toward the end of the week. Rain chances are low, probably close to zero. So it goes in summer under such a pressure system.