In brief: Overall our forecast is consistent for the rest of the week. We are going to see fairly normal weather for June, which is to say warm temperatures but not excessively hot. The humidity, of course, will be constant. And in a change from the last week our rain chances will go down significantly.

A stalemate in the atmosphere

Over the next several days we are going to see two competing impulses in the atmospheres overhead. To our southwest, a ridge of high pressure will be attempting to expand into Texas. At the same time, a few upper level disturbances will be attempting to slide down from the northwest. So what will happen? Mostly, I expect fairly tranquil weather through the weekend, with mostly sunny skies and warm—but not too hot—temperatures as we go through the longest days of the year. Although we will have some shower chances, increasingly it looks like the high pressure system will keep most (but not all) at bay.

Tuesday

Today should be sunny and warm, with a high temperature in the vicinity of the low 90s. Winds, generally, will be light in the range of 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts. To the extent we see rainfall, the majority of it is likely to remain offshore. But we definitely could see a few showers and thunderstorms pop up this afternoon. For the most of us, however, no. Lows tonight will trop into the upper 70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The rest of the week looks similar. If you squint, it’s possible to see some slightly higher rain chances on Thursday, maybe 30 or 40 percent. But these three days should all bring highs in the low 90s, mostly sunny skies, and warm nights. In terms of winds, Wednesday afternoon could get a little breezy, but overall things look pretty mild.

Saturday and Sunday

This pattern should persist into the weekend. Expect highs in the low 90s, a fair amount of sunshine, and perhaps a 20 to 30 percent chance of afternoon showers or maybe a thunderstorm.

Next week

There is some evidence that the aforementioned high should retreat a bit next week, opening us up to a bit better rain chances by Tuesday or Wednesday. That’s a week off so I don’t have much confidence. However the good news is that it does not appear as though we’re going to see a temperature spike into the mid- or upper-90s any time soon. (Note: This is not a taunt.)

In brief: After last week’s widespread showers and thunderstorms we expect more rain this week. But with the potential for flooding diminished, we are dropping our Stage 1 flood alert. Daily rain chances should also help keep highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees.

A week of rain, more to come

The region received a much needed dose of rainfall over the last week, with totals varying from 2 inches (generally in Katy and points west) up to nearly 10 inches (near Baytown). Most areas fell somewhere in between with a total of 4 to 6 inches. The rains were spread out enough that they did not cause too significant of flooding issues, which is not always easy to pull off in June, when rain can come down in bunches.

For the coming week we are going to see a ridge of high pressure attempt to build in from the south, but the Houston region should remain on its periphery. Generally, then, we can expect to see daily rain chances but probably not conditions as well organized as last week. So keep an umbrella handy, yes, but we are not too concerned about flash flooding. For this reason we are (finally) dropping our Stage 1 flood alert for the region.

Monday

Most locations, especially south and east of Highway 59/Interstate 69 will see some rain today. And we cannot rule out some stronger thunderstorms this afternoon which may drop up to about 1 inch. Skies will otherwise be partly sunny, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and fairly light winds from the south. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the upper 70s for most locations.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Rain chances are lower during the middle of the week, due to the aforementioned high pressure, perhaps around 30 percent daily. I expect both of these days will see high temperatures around 90 degrees, or a tick or two higher, to go along with partly to mostly sunny skies. There is a 100 percent chance of mosquitoes after the last week or so of rains. I’m afraid they’re going to be bad, y’all.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The end of the week is likely to see a pattern of partly sunny days and high temperatures in the low 90s. Highs will depend on whether it rains during the peak heating of the afternoon hours. And I do think it will rain. Each day will see around a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, with “storm-o-clock” coming during the afternoon across the Houston region. If you have outdoor plans this weekend, I’m not anticipating a total washout, but you’ll want to have a thunderstorm contingency.

Next week

At this point it looks like this slightly unsettled pattern will continue into at least the middle of next week, with daily shower chances helping to keep temperatures at a moderate level (for Houston) in late June.

In brief: Houston should have one more round of fairly widespread thunderstorms today, especially closer to the coast before things start to ease up closer to what’s typical for June. The relatively mild weather of this week will revert back to typical early summer fare heading into next week.

Today

After yesterday’s widespread rains, we get one more crack at the free car wash today. Things are starting off quiet this morning. That should change as the morning progresses. We’ll have a couple showers pop up along the coast over the next few hours. That will evolve into more numerous downpours and thunderstorms after 10 or 11 AM. This will be especially true along the coast and just inland, so Highway 59/I-69 is kind of our demarcation line today. South and east of there, higher rain risk, north and west lower rain risk.

A flood watch is in effect for coastal counties between Matagorda Bay and Louisiana today. These areas will be more susceptible to the heaviest rains. We will continue the Stage 1 flood alert as well for the rest of today. The Matagorda area was hardest hit yesterday, but today I would watch closer to Galveston and on the island for some healthy street flooding risks. These storms will be capable of dumping 2 to 4 inches in an hour.

So, storms become widespread at the coast after 10 or 11 AM and some additional more scattered activity spreads inland to the northwest from there. Rains should dissipate after sunset.

Saturday & Sunday

On Saturday, the trough that sits over the Arklatex today will move into the Mississippi Valley to our east. That should reduce the overall support for widespread thunderstorms like we’ve had since midweek.

What does this mean? Well, we should revert to more typical summertime weather. I would expect to see some showers or a couple thunderstorms develop each day from late morning through afternoon along the sea breeze as it slowly migrates inland from the Gulf. Many of us will see nothing at all, but a few will receive the often-welcome cooling downpour on Saturday or Sunday. Coverage may be a smidge higher on Sunday than Saturday. But anyone planning to partake in outdoor activities will probably only have to briefly dodge a shower, if anything at all.

It will warm back up though. We should reach the low-90s with a couple mid-90s here or there. Morning lows will be in the upper-70s.

Next week

High pressure over the Southwest will flatten out while a new area of high pressure builds west across the Gulf Coast toward Texas. We’ll probably keep Monday much like Sunday or Saturday, but Tuesday and Wednesday could see slightly increased rain chances before we probably shut off the sprinklers for a couple days later next week. Highs will generally remain in the lower-90s, close to normal for mid-June.

In brief: With the most potent rain-making storms now moving offshore, we are returning to a Stage 1 flood alert for the entire Houston region. Heavy rainfall remains possible on Friday, although we don’t expect storms to be quite as organized as they were today.

Hi everyone. Just wanted to write a quick post to note that the atmosphere is pretty well worked over, and that the strongest line of storms has now moved mostly offshore. As a result of this, we expect a fairly quiet afternoon and evening in the Houston metro area. We still expect to see some light to moderate showers for a few more hours today, but the trend will be one toward gradual clearing of the area.

If you’re looking for a bright spot, look no further than temperatures, which as of noon are hovering around 70 degrees for most of the region. We don’t see midday temperatures like this often in June. I expect highs to nudge upward, toward the upper 70s, before evening and slightly cooler overnight temperatures return.

I think conditions, in terms of rainfall, will generally be fairly calm overnight. However, by daybreak we may start to see some additional showers building in from the southwest, and we are likely to see another round of storms from the mid-morning through the afternoon hours across the region. I don’t believe these storms will be as widespread as today’s – in which some locations south and east of Houston picked up 6 inches – but the potential for heavy rainfall remains. We think a Stage 1 flood alert should cover us, but we’ll be keeping tabs on the situation just in case.