In brief: Houston will now enter a somewhat wetter period in which rain will be possible most days. In addition, after a couple of fairly hot days, a weak front should bring some slightly drier air into the region for this weekend, knocking humidity down a bit.

Wednesday

As noted in yesterday’s post, we’re now entering a period over the next week or so in which it probably will not rain every day, but rain should be possible most days. Today, an upper-level system will drive a chance of scattered showers this morning, followed by partly sunny skies this afternoon. Depending on cloud cover, highs today will likely reach the low- to mid-80s. We’re going to have one more day of pronounced southerly winds, gusting to 25 mph, or higher.

Tonight the pattern becomes more interesting, as a line of storms approaches the region from the north. But how far will it progress? These showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe, will likely approach the region around midnight and could push south of Interstate 10 by sunrise on Thursday morning. However, this is no slam dunk. While some ingredients are in place to support such a line of storms moving across Houston, I think there’s a 50 percent or less chance it actually materializes.

Thursday

By mid-morning on Thursday, at the latest, any residual storm activity should have moved off to the east, leaving us with a partly sunny and warm day. Some areas are likely to get into the upper 80s, and we can’t rule out a few 90-degree readings for areas well inland. Lows on Thursday night will fall to around 70 degrees with mostly cloudy skies.

Friday

This will be another warm-to-hot day, with temperatures in the upper 80s for most of the area. Beginning Friday afternoon, we’ll see increasing rain chances due to an approaching front. We’re far enough from this front to not have great details yet about potential storms, but the bottom line is that there will be a healthy chance of rain from Friday evening through Saturday morning, and possibly into the early afternoon hours on Saturday in Houston, as the front drifts in.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend, as noted above, will see a good chance of showers before the afternoon hours. Expect highs of around 80 degrees, with clearing skies later in the day. There is a fair amount of uncertainty about temperatures, but lows in the mid-60s are possible on Saturday night going into Sunday morning.

Sunday

I’m cautiously optimistic about Sunday being a really nice day. Humidity is not going to be low, per se, but it could be quite a bit lower than we’ve experienced of late. What would you say to high temperatures in the low 80s, partly sunny skies, and relatively low humidity in early May? It won’t be perfect, and there will probably be some isolated to scattered showers later in the day. But as we get closer to summer, beggars cannot be choosers.

Next week

Most of next week should see highs in the mid-80s. High pressure will likely shut down rain chances to start the week, but by Tuesday or Tuesday night we could see the return of some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. We shall see.

In brief: After several drier days, some rain chances will return to Houston’s forecast. We are not expecting any days really to be washouts, however. I’m also holding out some hope that a weak front makes it into the city this weekend, providing for some slightly drier and cooler air. Fingers crossed.

Overall pattern shift

The high pressure that has held sway since last Friday, and basically shut off rain chances since then, is now shifting to the east. This does not mean you will see rain every day from now on, but over the next 10 days there will be at least a slight chance of rain most days. Total accumulations over the next 10 days may only be 1 to 2 inches, so we don’t have any real flood concerns at this time. It just should be a pattern that provides the potential for spoiling a few outdoor activities, but also helps our trees and plants before the long summer days that lie in our near future.

Tuesday

With that said, rain chances today are rather slight, and anything that falls would be a quick passing shower. However that does not mean sunshine will be abundant. Rather we should see mostly cloudy skies, and this will help limit high temperatures in the mid-80s for most locations. With dewpoints in the 60s it will feel moderately, but not oppressively humid. We can expect southerly winds at about 15 mph, with gusts this afternoon up to 25 mph. Overnight lows will only drop into the mid-70s.

Wednesday

A weak front will move toward the Houston region on Wednesday, and it will spur a slight chance of thunderstorms to the northwest of the metro area. As of now, I think the chance of any serious storms getting anywhere close to the city of Houston or its surrounding suburbs is quite low. But we’ll keep an eye on things. Skies will again be mostly cloudy, with a fairly robust southerly wind as on Tuesday. Rain chances turn a little bit higher on Wednesday night, perhaps 30 percent. Some far inland areas may see lows on Wednesday night in the 60s due to the proximity of the front, but most of the region should remain in the 70s.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of hotter days as we see an injection of warm, southerly air into the region. Thursday probably will be the warmest day of the week, with some locations potentially hitting 90 degrees as skies become partly sunny. Rain chances are are low, but non-zero. Friday will also be fairly hot, but another slow-moving front will spur better rain chances. I expect most of the region will see some showers, or possibly even thunderstorms later on Friday or Friday night as the front slowly moves in.

Saturday and Sunday

It is not possible to say for certain, but at this point I think that weak front will make it all the way to the coast. As a result most of the area should see highs in the lower 80s this weekend, with a smidge of drier air, and lows in the 60s. There will still be a healthy chance of rain on Saturday, but I expect Sunday to be partly sunny and fairly nice. Again, the weekend forecast is very much in flux because we just can’t be sure how much oomph that front is going to have, but I have some hopes for a nice day on Sunday. We’ll see.

Next week

I think Monday probably will see a fair amount of sunshine before rain chances return again next week during the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. I don’t think we’re looking at anything extreme at all, but just more rain to help our soils remain in good shape for nature.

In brief: Did you like Sunday’s weather? Because that pattern will persist into Wednesday. After that point we’ll add daily rain chances into the forecast through the weekend. However, one thing that won’t change is the relatively high temperatures and humidity we’ve been experiencing.

A quick word on the Sun

By the calendar it may still say spring, but in terms of sunshine, we are rapidly approaching the peak of the year. Nowadays, shortly after 1 pm, the Sun reaches an angle of 75 degrees (out of a maximum of 90 degrees) in the sky. Of course the Sun reaches a maximum height on the summer solstice (June 21 this year, 84 degrees), but the Sun is already climbing to the same height as it does in early August.

What’s your point, Eric? Well I think a lot of Houston residents associate August with a month when you can pretty quickly get a sunburn outside. My point is that similar conditions exist in April, so if you’re planning to be outside during the middle of the day, please take some precautions to protect your skin. It will burn quickly.

Monday

High pressure will prevail to start the week, so we are likely to see ongoing warm and humid weather for a few days. For Monday, this means partly cloudy skies, with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Like on Sunday, we will see fairly stiff southerly winds at about 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph. Rain chances will be low to non-existent. Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight, with low temperatures dropping to around 70 degrees.

Tuesday

This should more or less be a carbon copy of Monday, albeit with high and low temperatures perhaps a degree or two higher. Again, with high pressure in place, rain chances should remain near zero.

Wednesday

The forecast turns slightly more dynamic on Wednesday as a cool front approaches the region but, more likely than not, stalls out well to the northwest of the metro area. Although we will be watching for the possibility that the front pushes into Houston, right now the most probable weather is scattered showers (greater chances north of I-10) on Wednesday afternoon, evening, and overnight. Expect highs generally in the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Those pesky, strong southerly winds will remain in place. I don’t think we’ll see enough oomph from the front to make a meaningful impact on nighttime temperatures.

Thursday and Friday

With clearer skies these days should see highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees for most of the area, with nighttime lows around 70 degrees. However, each day may see some scattered shower activity during the afternoon and evening hours with daytime heating. I’m confident in the heat, but less so in the rain chances.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

With a fair amount of moisture lingering in the atmosphere, we should continue to see daily rain chances in the vicinity of 30 to 50 percent this weekend. With a few more clouds, high temperatures may back off into the mid-80s, with continued nighttime lows around 70 degrees. With dewpoints in the 60s it will definitely feel humid outside, but not oppressively so like it will in a month or two.

Most of our modeling is showing another system that could bring elevated rain chances by the middle of next week. However, as this feature is about 10 days away, it is difficult to place too much confidence in any one outcome at this time.

In brief: One more chance at scattered storms exists today in Houston, followed by a quiet, hot weekend. We’ll get some classic early summer fare before our next chance at storms and a possible cool front later next week.

Most parts of the Houston area have seen a pretty good week in the rainfall department. Everyone has seen about a half inch to an inch of rain, with a couple exceptions near Wharton, College Station, and the East End of Galveston onto the Bolivar Peninsula.

Three areas really stood out this week. The area just north of Baytown and west of Mont Belvieu saw over 6 inches of rain. Pearland also got close to 6 inches of rainfall in spots. It’s likely that Liverpool in Brazoria County may have seen even higher totals this week. The area just south of Lake Livingston also saw nearly 6 inches of rain. So, your mileage definitely varies, but all in all a beneficial week of rainfall here.

Today

We have one “kinda sorta” chance of rain today. This should not be anything organized; just heating of the day random pop-up downpours. Most places will probably be dry today, but those that see a downpour could snag a quick quarter to half inch of additional rainfall or even a bit more along with some thunder and lightning. Otherwise, expect decreasing clouds and highs well into the 80s. All good for the Dash match tonight.

Saturday and Sunday

Both days may start off with clouds but transition to sunshine. Expect warm, humid conditions all weekend. Highs will be in the mid to upper-80s, with lows around 70 degrees. MS150 riders will get the tailwind this weekend at least, out of the southeast 5 to 15 mph or so. An isolated downpour can’t be entirely ruled out for the weekend, especially on Sunday, but it seems highly unlikely. Conditions look all good for the SaberCats or Dynamo matches Saturday.

Monday and Tuesday

I would expect more of the same for the start of next week: Clouds to sun, highs in the upper-80s and lows in the low to mid-70s. We do have a chance at 90 degrees on Tuesday.

Wednesday and onward

Conditions get more unsettled Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. We’ll see about risks for heavy rain or any severe weather; it’s too soon to say at the moment, but it would seem we will get a couple rounds of storms in the area. We could see a push of drier air follow a cool front on Thursday, which could set up a nice end of the week. Fingers crossed.