In brief: Houston will continue to see unseasonably warm weather, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s for most locations. The sunny pattern continues this weekend, with more late summer weather. There is the possibility of a cool front in about 10 days, but it is far from locked in. We also discuss potential tropical activity in the Caribbean Sea next week.

Tuesday

With high pressure in place, you pretty know what to expect with Houston’s weather this week, which is plenty of heat, humidity, and sunshine. High temperatures reached 96 degrees on Monday at Bush Intercontinental Airport, and that’s a good predictor of what will happen today, with mostly sunny skies, and light northeasterly winds. Rain chances are essentially zero, but there is a very slight chance of some brief showers along the sea breeze. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid- to upper-70s for much of the region.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

More of the same. We’re going to see sunny and hot weather for the remainder of the work week. Need I say more?

Saturday and Sunday

The pattern continues into the weekend, however as the intensity of the high pressure system wanes some we’ll see a slight moderation in temperatures. Don’t expect much, but daily highs could drop into the low-90s, with plenty of sunshine. Nighttime lows may fall into the mid-70s. Skies still should remain partly to mostly sunny, with very low rain chances.

Next week

There’s not a whole lot of change next week, with fairly warm temperatures. Perhaps we’ll see slightly better rain chances to start next week, in the vicinity of 20 or 30 percent, I’m not sure. Some of the global models are indicating that a front may arrive by around Thursday or Friday of next week, but the signal is not yet strong enough that I’m buying it. However, it is possible. We’ll see.

Tropics

A tropical system that has been absolutely soaking North Carolina has finally moved inland. Beyond that there’s not much to note that is presently active. However, most of our modeling guidance continues to highlight the western Caribbean Sea as a location where we can expect to see the development of a tropical low in about a week or so.

Beyond that there is not much sensible to say. This system could then track into the Yucatan Peninsula or turn north toward Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Yes, it could even move toward Texas, but at this point there is little model support for such an outcome—especially if the aforementioned front materializes. Nevertheless, at this time of year in the tropics we watch everything.

In brief: With high pressure asserting control over our region’s weather, the forecast period looks mostly hot, and mostly sunny, for the foreseeable future. At some point we’re going to start getting some fronts and a more fall-like pattern, but we are not going to reach that point this week.

Highs and lows

We are now in mid-September, a time when historically the Texas coast is most vulnerable to large and powerful hurricanes. The first line of defense for our region in August and September from hurricanes is high pressure. This makes for hot and sunny conditions over land, but also establishes an atmospheric pattern that steers storms away.

For the next week or 10 days, we’re going to see a fairly dominant high pressure system over the Texas coast. That may not be what you want to see weather wise in Houston, as it will mean hot and sunny days and an absence of fronts to cool us down. However, it will also keep any low-pressure systems at bay. In short, at a time when we would normally be most concerned about hurricanes and Texas, we can breathe easy for now.

Monday

We’ll see a mix of clouds and sunshine this morning before clearing skies this afternoon. Expect high temperatures generally in the mid-90s, with light northerly winds. As for rain chances, they’re not zero, but they’re less than 10 percent. So close enough. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.

Tuesday through Friday

As mentioned above, with high pressure in place do not expect much change in our day to day weather. Highs, generally, will be in the low- to mid-90s with mostly sunny skies. Low temperatures will fall into the mid-70s. Winds all week look to be fairly light, in the vicinity of 5 to 10 mph. In terms of rain chances, they’re not exactly zero. But they’re not much above 10 percent each day. Most parts of our region are unlikely to see any accumulation this week.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

At this point the overall pattern appears unlikely to change much this weekend, or even into the early part of next week. Highs, generally, should remain in the low-90s, with mostly sunny skies, and low rain chances through the weekend at least, if not beyond.

Tropic

The tropics are decidedly not quiet, but for our purposes in Texas they’re not of any concern. The only thing I’m watching is the potential for some development in the western Caribbean Sea about eight to 10 days from now. There’s no evidence this will track toward Texas, but it’s the only development likely near the Gulf of Mexico in the near term. If you want to know what’s happening across the Atlantic basin, be sure and check out The Eyewall.

In brief: In this post we take a brief look back at the Francine forecast and some of our exasperations, and then look ahead at a period of much hotter weather. Summer is not over yet, and we’ll discover that this weekend.

A brief word about Francine

Here at Space City Weather we try to get things right. We don’t always succeed—this year we were surprised by a derecho, and our early forecasts for Hurricane Beryl missed the mark. But our commitment to readers is that we’re always going to tell you what we think, in a straightforward manner, without hype or tricks.

Which brings me to last Monday afternoon. I had just hit ‘publish’ on a post about Francine, in which we continued to predict the tropical system would remain far enough offshore to preclude serious impacts for Houston specifically, and Texas in general. Almost immediately after that story went up on the website, we started to get questions here, on Facebook, and by email about a western “shift” in the forecast. Apparently some media outlets and popular social media accounts were reporting on this, suggesting serious impacts were possible in Texas from Francine. Initially, I was stumped. I certainly wasn’t seeing that prospect in the model data.

It turns out this was a reaction to a very slight change in the official track forecast from the National Hurricane center. I bring this up, because I saw something Thursday from hurricane scientist James Franklin that reveals just how slight this shift was. The map below shows a plot of landfall forecasts from the National Hurricane Center over the 78 hours prior to landfall. I’ve added an arrow to highlight the western “shift” in the track that caused all of the commotion:

The trend over the weekend had been an eastward one, and there was no model data at the time suggesting a huge shift back toward Texas was imminent. And as you can see, during the very next forecast cycle, the official forecast shifted to the east, and more than wiped out the earlier change. Somewhat exasperated, I touched on this topic in a post at 10 pm that same day.

Why were Matt and I exasperated? Every storm is different. With Francine coming along just a couple of months after Beryl, Houston residents were understandably sensitive to the possibility that Francine would not turn away from our area. Emphasizing this “western shift” played on those concerns. We also recognize that after all of the crazy, wild, and destructive storms, freezes, heat waves, and more that we’ve had in just the last decade, Houston residents can live on pins and needles when inclement weather threatens. The very last thing we want try to do is exacerbate those fears.

Friday

Enough about storms, let’s talk about sunshine. There will be plenty of that this weekend, and beyond, as high pressure more or less asserts control over our weather. Since we’re now into mid-September, with shorter days and a lower sun angle, temperatures are not going back into triple digits, but it will still be plenty hot.

Highs today will reach the mid-90s for much of Houston, except for coastal regions, which will see highs a few degrees lower. Skies will be sunny. Winds will be light at only a few mph, from the west. There won’t be much relief overnight, with low temperatures generally falling into the mid- to upper-70s. So yeah, welcome back summer.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect more of the same, with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s for inland areas. The coast will be a bit cooler during the daytime. Overnights lows will remain warm, in the upper 70s. Could we see a few rogue thunderstorms? Maybe. But I’d put chances at about 5 percent, so probably not.

Next week

The first half of the week will start out with highs in the mid-90s, and perhaps a 10 percent chance of showers on Monday and Tuesday. However, after that we should see temperatures back of slightly, into the lower 90s. Rain chances remain low, with mostly sunny skies, for the remainder of the week, and probably next weekend as well. Our next chance of a front comes in about 10 to 12 days time, but at this point it’s closer to a hope than a certainty.

Tropics

There’s nothing to see here. After writing a lot the last 12 days about Francine and other weather, we’re taking the weekend off. See you on Monday.

In brief: Following a period of rainy weather, a cool front, and some lower temperatures due to the passage of Hurricane Francine, Houston is going back into the mid-90s this weekend. Moreover, pretty much all of next week looks fairly hot and sunny. It won’t be August-hot, but after a taste of cooler temperatures it will be plenty hot.

The return of summer

It may be difficult to remember, but not all that long ago Houston recorded seven straight days of 100-degree temperatures. That period of peak summer ended 21 days ago. That’s when, during the last week of August, we started to transition into a rainy pattern, with high temperatures of around 90 degrees or below most days. Then we got our first fall front, and the passage of Hurricane Francine allowed the trend of cooler days to continue into this week.

As a result the Houston region has had about three weeks of cooler than normal days (nights have been more in line with climate normals, except for a few nights after the front). Well, I hope you’ve enjoyed it. Because high pressure is back, baby, and it’s bringing summer with it. We’re not returning to the days of 100-degree temperatures, but we are going to jump back into a period of substantially hotter days. I’m not sure when it will end.

Thursday

Today will be something of a transition day, with high temperatures of around 90 degrees or a bit higher. We should start out partly to mostly cloudy in the morning, but by afternoon we should see clearing skies and light northwest winds. Lows will drop into the lower 70s for most of the metro area.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

There won’t be much to distinguish these days. All three should see mostly sunny skies, with temperatures solidly in the mid-90s for most locations away from the coast. This is fairly warm for mid-September in Houston, but certainly we often see these kinds of warm stretches this month. It’s not as bad as August, but it’s still pretty hot, and sometimes excruciatingly so in September as we eagerly await the onset of fall. But for those who like summer, and I know there are some of you thermophiles out there, this is a good opportunity for water outdoor activities before things cool off. Nights will only drop into the mid-70s. Humidity will be pretty high, but not as high as it gets during the peak of summer. Rain chances will be close to zero over the weekend.

Next week

The ridge retreats a bit next week, and this may allow for some slight rain chances on Monday, maybe in the 20 percent range. Still, most of next week looks pretty sunny, and highs are going to be in the low 90s most days, with the possibility of a few mid-90s here and there. So yeah, pretty hot and mostly rain-free probably. Our next front may be in the cards about 12 days from now, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Tropics

Francine has moved inland, and while there are a lot of tropical blobs out there, right now it looks as though none of them are coming toward the Gulf of Mexico. We just need that pattern to hold on for a few more weeks…