In brief: Monday will be calm, but you should anticipate the potential for showers, thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday in the Houston metro area. We don’t have high confidence in the timing yet, but with the atmosphere in place we can be pretty confident in disruptions, and have put a Stage 1 flood alert in place through Wednesday. Things calm down after that.

Weekend review

You would be hard-pressed, I think, to expect a finer weekend in early May than we just experienced. My wife and I were at a choir event on Sunday evening at the Willowynn Barn in Santa Fe—a gorgeous place for events by the way, I joked with Amanda that I would like to have my next wedding there—and you just had to stand outside and soak it up. Summer is on the horizon.

Inland areas got into the 50s on Sunday morning in Houston, and most of the rest of the area enjoyed the lower 60s with drier air with dewpoints in the 40s. That’s really pleasant for May. I do think we’re going to see another weak front for next weekend, but unfortunately it’s unlikely to pull as much drier air with it. And first we’ve got to get through another stormy pattern.

Monday

Humidity is already on the rise this morning, and we’ll see southeasterly winds gusting up to 25 mph that will set the stage for more moisture in the air. We’ll start out with partly sunny skies this morning, but by some point this afternoon we should see mostly clouds. High temperatures will reach the vicinity of 80 degrees. By this afternoon and evening we will see some scattered showers, mainly located to the west of Interstate 45. A chance of light rain will spread into the entire region during the overnight hours as lows fall to around 70 degrees.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The moisture that moved inland on Monday was a “warm” front, and it will set the stage for the possibility of heavy rainfall and storms on Tuesday and Wednesday in the Houston metro area. Our various high resolution models still have some discrepancies, but right now I would predict that the greatest potential for inclement weather will occur from late Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning across the region.

There will be the usual threats: damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado. We are also concerned about the potential for heavy rainfall. Most areas are likely to pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain through Wednesday, but we could see some higher bullseyes of 5 inches or more. For this reason we are going to institute a Stage 1 flood alert from Tuesday at noon through Wednesday. In terms of temperatures, Houston should reach the lower 80s on both days with plenty of humidity. We’ll have more on this later today and plenty of coverage the rest of the week.

Thursday

Rain chances should diminish by Thursday, but will perhaps not go away entirely until the afternoon. Expect partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. Lows on Thursday night should drop into the upper 60s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

As a weak front drifts into the area we should see another nice weekend. I don’t know if we’re going to run it back and have things as nice as we just experienced, but as of now I anticipate mostly sunny skies with highs in the low 80s, overnight lows in the 60s, and modestly drier air. So if it is not cool as this past weekend, it will hopefully at least be somewhat pleasant.

In brief: Storms firing to the north and west of Houston will sag into the city this evening and down to the coast by around midnight. This system should also weaken with the loss of daytime heating, so the severe threat is diminishing. But it’s not completely gone yet.

If you live along, or south of Interstate 10 you may be wondering what the big deal is with storm forecasts today. So far the majority of the activity has taken place in the northern half of the Houston metro area. Some locations just north of Conroe have picked up in excess of 6 inches of rain, and areas near Kingwood have recorded upward of 4 inches. There also has been a fair amount of hail, some of it quarter-sized, within the stronger thunderstorms.

As of 6:45 pm CT two things are changing. The first is good news. The threat for severe weather, particularly hail and damaging winds is fading. That does not mean these storms cannot produce severe weather this evening, it just means that their ability to do so is declining. The second change is that, ahead of a cool front, the threat of showers and thunderstorms is now moving into central Houston and should reach the coast between 10 pm and midnight. Again, we expect the line of storms to weaken as it moves toward the coast.

So for areas that have been inundated with storms today, the finish line is sight. Things should clear out in northern areas over the next couple of hours. For areas that have seen nothing so far today, but may have heard the distant sound of thunder, showers and perhaps some stronger thunderstorms are inbound this evening. Closer to the coast I think rain totals will be hit or miss, but most of the region should see some rainfall between now and Saturday morning.

Saturday and Sunday both look like pleasant late spring days, with drier air and highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees.

In brief: Severe thunderstorms are developing in Houston as of noon on Friday, and will pose a threat for the next 12 hours across the region. We’ve got details about all of the threats in this update, with a particular concern for the evening commute.

As anticipated, with daytime heating, we are seeing severe thunderstorms developing in the Houston region. As of 12:30 pm CT there are large clusters of storms near Kingwood and just west of Katy. From this point forward we expect additional development throughout the afternoon and evening hours as the capping inversion over the region breaks.

From now until about 5 pm the majority of activity should be clustered along and north of Interstate 10, but that certainly does not preclude thunderstorms developing in the southern half of the region. Unfortunately we expect that the majority of the region is likely to see activity during the evening commute as the storms spread, making for a messy time on freeways. If you can leave earlier today, that’s probably for the best.

In terms of threats we have three major concerns right now.

RAIN: These storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, and under high rainfall rates we are likely to see street flooding. For this reason we have implemented a Stage 1 flood alert for the region through tonight. Essentially, you need to be weather aware on roads, take extra time, and do not drive into high water. Rainfall amounts will vary widely, with most of the area likely picking up 0.5 to 2 inches. I am concerned about a few bullseyes of 4 inches or more, which are possible.

WIND: There is a healthy chance of damaging winds with these storms, so anything you can batten down would be helpful. The threat of damaging winds is the highest we have seen so far this spring, so again this is another reason to stay off roads amid strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening if possible.

HAIL: In some thunderstorms near Kingwood weather spotters have already observed quarter-sized hail this afternoon. So this is a distinct threat as well as these storms pass through.

Tornadoes are also possible, but the threat is on the lower end of the scale.

Over the next several hours the bulk of the storms will shift southward, ahead of a front rumbling into the area. Areas south of Interstate 10, accordingly, will likely face the greatest threat of severe weather from late this afternoon to late this evening. By midnight, or shortly afterward, the threat of storms should move offshore. After that, the weekend looks lovely.

We will update later today as warranted.

In brief: Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening in the Houston area, especially north of I-10. Hail and strong wind gusts are the main concerns. Heavy rain is also likely in spots, so a stage 1 flood alert has been posted. After today, we get some quiet, if not absolutely beautiful weather this weekend.

Today/tonight

So, let’s get this out of the way first: This morning looks fine. No issues.

Starting this afternoon, probably not long after lunchtime, numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to begin developing north of I-10. The environment over Houston looks conducive for virtually any storm to become strong to severe today. As such, we are now in an enhanced risk (3/5) of severe weather this afternoon and evening.

The two main threats today will be pockets of strong wind gusts in excess of 40-50 mph and the potential for hail. An isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out, but the bigger risks are damaging wind and hail today. The evolution of storms today will probably be individual cells eventually congealing into a line that lingers for a bit over much of the Houston area, again focused near or north of I-10. The severe storm threat should begin to wane after sunset, but additional thunderstorms are likely, especially south of I-10 overnight. So, almost everyone should get a chance to participate today with the nastier storms north this afternoon and evening and less intense storms south this evening and overnight.

In addition to the hail and wind, these storms could produce torrential rainfall, with totals of up to 3 or 4 inches possible in isolated pockets. Street flooding could easily crop up with storms like this. So, with that in mind, we are issuing a stage 1 flood alert for this afternoon and evening across the area, mainly north of I-10.

There are always fail modes on days like this, and it could be that we end up with heavy rain and generic thunderstorms more so than severe weather. But the environment today is definitely primed for some strong to severe storms, so particularly between about 1 PM and 8 PM, you’ll want to remain tuned into what’s happening.

Eric will have the latest for you around midday with a fresh update. We will follow with further updates as needed thereafter.

Saturday and Sunday

After some lingering showers well south of Houston or near the coast in the morning, Saturday itself looks like a fine day. Actually, it may end up being an absolutely spectacular day, but I want to keep expectations a little in check. But expect a return of some sunshine, noticeably lower humidity, and highs into the low 80s. Morning lows should be in the lower 60s. Look for much the same on Sunday without the morning shower chance.

You never know when you’re going to get your last really, really nice day before summer sinks in, so take advantage of tomorrow and Sunday if you’re able!

Next week

After another decent day Monday (albeit a bit warmer), we will re-emerge into an unsettled weather pattern for much of next week. Day by day details are tough to pin down right now, but look for at least a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Some of the storms could be strong, and some of the rain could be heavy.

More data!

I generally abide by a separation of church and state when it comes to my day job and my work with Space City Weather. However, I am going to make a minor exception in this case. For those that do not know, I was hired in November to be CenterPoint Energy’s new manager of meteorology. Among the many things I was tasked with out of the gate was siting and launching a network of 100 weather sensors across the Houston area, as part of the company’s commitments in the Greater Houston Resiliency Initiative. In case you had not seen earlier this week, that process is now underway, and you can see the data from over 60 new weather sensors across the area here!

You may ask, “Well aren’t there already a lot of weather sensors reporting here?” The answer is yes. There are. But even when you plot virtually every network of weather stations, there are still some data gaps, there are periodically reliability issues, and most of you know how the weather goes in Houston where it rains at your neighbor’s house but not yours.

I’m hoping we can fill some of those gaps, assist with improving weather forecasting in the Houston area, and add additional data to be used by the NWS, flood control agencies, etc. to assist in understanding or researching weather in the Houston area. More data is good for everyone. So this project has excited me, I’m glad we can share this data with the weather community, and I look forward to seeing it grow further.