In brief: The first part of the weekend looks good, but we do expect Houston to see thunderstorms on Easter Sunday. Some of those storms could be strong, and that will be followed by more storm chances next week. Springtime is in force.

Today & Saturday

If you like hot weather, you’re in luck! There’s a pretty good chance we’ll hit or exceed 90 degrees today. It will also be quite breezy with south winds gusting up to 30 mph or so. Other than that, expect a mix of clouds and sun.

Saturday will be a bit cloudier. We’ll have a very mild morning, with lows probably not much below 75 degrees, close to a record for warmest April 19th morning. The day should again be breezy, mostly cloudy, and not quite as hot (but plenty humid). Highs should get into the mid or upper-80s. Shower chances look minimal, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the sky squeezed out a few raindrops here or there. Better shower chances will exist back toward Hill Country.

Easter Sunday

Sunday morning will be at least a little interesting. There should be a line or complex of thunderstorms near I-35 and the Austin area around sunrise. As those cross I-35 and move toward southeast Texas, they *should* begin to fall apart. Thus, the morning should be mostly cloudy with a couple showers here or there. As the boundary from that decaying line of storms hits Houston in the afternoon, we should see new thunderstorms blossom across the area. Some of these storms could be on the stronger side, and the SPC has us partially in a marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather on Sunday. This could yet change some between now and Sunday.

In addition to the potential for some strong to severe storms, atmospheric moisture levels will be more typical of mid-summer, so we could see some torrential downpours and localized street flooding crop up.

Eric and I will monitor this through tomorrow and have any updates for you on Sunday morning.

Next week

The cold front that will be responsible for the storms on Sunday is likely to stall out or wash out overhead. I would not be shocked to see the focus of thunderstorm activity on Monday to stay mostly east of Houston, closer to Lake Charles and Beaumont. But by Tuesday, that may swing back toward us, leading to scattered storms for Tuesday and possibly Wednesday or Thursday. This is the time of year where we can see afternoon storms blow up in portions of north or central Texas, organize into a cluster, and make their way toward us as complexes of storms called mesoscale convective systems (or MCS’s). I would not be at all shocked to see us have to wrangle that next week at least once. Bottom line: It looks unsettled.

It’s a bit early to get into potential specifics, but it does appear that next week will be active. The clouds and shower chances will hold daytime temperatures lower next week (more like low 80s), with warm nighttimes in the upper-60s to low-70s.

In brief: Today’s forecast looks ahead to warm and windy weather for the next couple of days, followed by a potentially rainy Easter Sunday. With two major sporting events taking place in the Houston region nine days from now, the MS 150 and IRONMAN Texas events, we also take a look at likely conditions for next weekend.

MS 150 ride and IRONMAN Texas

This morning we are taking a look ahead to the weekend of April 26, when there are two major outdoor events in which thousands of people will be exerting themselves outside in the elements. The first of these is the MS 150 ride on Saturday (from Houston to LaGrange) and Sunday (from LaGrange to College Station). The second is IRONMAN Texas, a swim, run, and cycling event in and around The Woodlands on Saturday.

Much of next week should see a decent chance of rain showers, but by next weekend this overall active pattern appears to settle down. So I’d peg rain chances at 20 percent, or less. The usual caveats apply to a forecast nearly 10 days out, but at this point I don’t see much evidence of a cool front arriving by next Saturday to shake things up. Therefore I think the most likely forecast is for temperatures in the mid-80s.

Unfortunately (especially for the triathletes) conditions look somewhat to very humid by next Saturday, and almost certainly we’re not going to see dewpoints in the 50s which would be more comfortable for outdoor exertions. In terms of winds we probably are looking at southerly or southeasterly winds, although how strong they will be is anyone’s guess. This is good news for the MS 150 riders, and for about half of the route triathletes will be taking during their cycling event. Good luck to all.

Thursday

Temperatures this morning are in the upper 60s across much of Houston, with dewpoints nearly to match. The mercury is headed into the mid-80s this afternoon beneath partly sunny skies, with partly sunny skies. As we have been saying, the story of the end of the week will be gusty southerly winds. We can expect breezy conditions for today, Friday, and Saturday, with gusts from the south up to about 30 mph, and possibly higher. Lows tonight will only drop to about 70 degrees.

Friday

I expect more clear skies to start the day on Friday, but things should cloud up at some point during the afternoon or evening hours. Depending on cloud cover, I think there’s a good chance that temperatures push into the upper 80s, with a few locations possibly hitting 90 degrees. So, pretty warm. And don’t forget about the gusty southerly winds. Coastal areas have a chance to see some light showers later on. Expect another warm night.

Saturday

This will be a cloudy and humid day, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. Again coastal areas should see a slight chance of rain, but the likelihood of rain for inland areas is probably 10 percent or less. Rain chances increase a bit during the overnight hours.

Easter Sunday

An approaching front will help drive a healthy chance of rain showers on Sunday, probably 50 percent or higher. We also have to consider the possibility of some thunderstorms, depending on the movement of the front. Right now various model solutions have the potential for several thunderstorms in east, or northeast, or central Houston. So Sunday’s weather is kind of like opening an Easter egg at your Aunt’s house. You never quite know what you’re going to find in there. My sense is that most areas will see the potential for some light rain during the morning hours, with better chances and the possibility of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. To be clear, I expect much of Houston to pick up a quarter of an inch of rain, or less. But there is the risk for higher amounts in some areas. Expect highs in the mid-80s, otherwise, with plenty of humidity.

Next week

The aforementioned front will probably move into the Houston region and peter out. This means we might see some slightly cooler weather on Sunday night or Monday. Rain chances fall back a bit before increasing again on Wednesday or Thursday. I’m hopeful that by the end of next week much of the area will have received 1 to 2 inches of of rain to help keep things green outside. Highs should remain in the 80s with plenty of humidity next week.

In brief: Temperatures are the lowest they’re going to get this week, and it’s really not all that cool outside. However, much more humid and windy weather is on the way after today through Saturday. Easter could see a chance of mostly light showers ahead of a possible cool front.

Wednesday

Temperatures this morning are in the low- to mid-60s across Houston and even cooler to the northeast. Although this is not chilly by any means, it is likely to be the coolest weather the region sees through the weekend as we enter a warmer and more humid pattern after today. Expect highs today in the lower 80s for most locations, with mostly sunny skies. Winds will come from the southeast beginning this morning, and by this afternoon they could be gusting up to 20 mph or so, marking the return of a robust and humid offshore flow that will be with us for awhile. Lows tonight will drop to about 70 degrees in Houston.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of days with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Both days should see high temperatures push into the mid- to upper-80s, with the potential for some locations to hit 90 degrees on Friday. The defining feature of both days is likely to be winds, with southerly gusts of 30 or even 35 mph possible during the afternoon hours. There is a slight chance of rain, perhaps about 10 percent, for both days. This pattern is also going to make for fairly humid nights, with lows only dropping to the lower 70s.

Saturday

This looks to be a mostly cloudy day, and this should help to limit temperatures slightly, perhaps in the mid- to upper-80 degree range. We still should see those fierce southerly winds, and warm and humid nights. Rain chances remain in the 10 percent vicinity. Anything that falls will be light.

Easter Sunday

Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies on Sunday, with humid weather and highs in the mid-80s. The good news is that southerly gusts should be a little bit less pronounced. The bad news for our little Egg hunters is that we are now looking at a solid 50 percent chance of rain as an atmospheric disturbance moves overhead. Most of that should be light to moderate rain, and overall I expect accumulations of one-quarter inch of rain or less. However for areas north of Interstate 10, there is a slight chance of some stronger thunderstorms.

Next week

I now think there’s about a 50-50 chance that a modest front makes it to the coast on Sunday night or Monday morning. It’s still no sure thing, but if it happens we could see a brief spell of cooler and drier air for a couple of days. We’ll see. Most models are still indicating a rainier pattern next week, particularly in the Wednesday through Friday time frame. A couple of inches of rain would be welcome, from a trees and plants standpoint at least. When we have any confidence in the details, we’ll share them.

In brief: Last week we spoke about a brief reprieve in strong winds over the area. It now appears as though that reprieve will end on Thursday, with gusty winds returning through the weekend. The holiday weekend also looks fairly warm and humid, with a decent chance of light rain on Easter Sunday itself.

Tuesday

A weak front is moving into the area, bringing slightly cooler and drier air with it. As a result temperatures today will top out at about 80 degrees, with lower humidity. The front will briefly produce northwesterly winds, gusting perhaps to 15 or 20 mph. However, those winds will pretty quickly shift to come from the east. Skies will be mostly sunny this afternoon. Lows will fall to 60 to 65 degrees tonight in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland. This may not sound like much, but it will be our coldest night for at least the next week.

Wednesday

This will be a pleasant, sunny day with high temperatures of around 80 degrees. We should see southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts possibly, and this will be a harbinger for the return of higher humidity levels. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the upper 60s.

Thursday and Friday

We will end the week will a pair of breezy, partly cloudy, and warm days. Highs on Thursday and Friday will climb into the mid- to upper-80s, with moderate humidity levels—which is to say dewpoints in the lower 60s, so a tad humid but not anything like Houston will feel later this summer. Strong winds are also back on the menu. Both days will be rather windy, with southerly gusts up to 30 mph or higher. Nights will be warm, in the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should also be windy and warm. An upper-level disturbance will approach the area, but it is not clear that it will get close enough to the Houston area to produce much rain. We can be confident in warm temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s on both days, with mostly cloudy skies. We’ll also continue to see those southerly gusts of up to 25 or 30 mph. As for rain, chances are probably less than 10 percent on Saturday, and in the vicinity 30 to 50 percent on Sunday. If it does rain on Easter Sunday, I think showers will be light for the most part. Organized thunderstorms appear unlikely in the Houston metro area.

Next week

A front will approach the area on Monday, but right now the majority of our modeling guidance suggests it will stall out north of Houston. That means we will probably be left in a warm and muggy pattern. The good news for our gardens and soils is that rain chances do look better next week, especially in the Wednesday time frame. However since that is more than a week away, I would not have the utmost confidence just yet.