In brief: Today’s post looks ahead to when Houston will start to feel more like winter again (the answer for most of us is Thursday morning). Additionally, with the potential for significant budget cuts on the horizon, we discuss how NOAA and the National Weather Service provide considerable value.

The value of the National Weather Service

There has been a lot of talk about cutting the US government via the “Department of Government Efficiency,” which is ostensibly assessing the performance of each US agency to improve its output. There are a lot of strong feelings about the actions of this body, spearheaded by Elon Musk, and it is beyond the scope of this website to judge its value. Suffice it to say we believe there is bloat in the US government that ought to be addressed, but at the same time US agencies provide valuable services, and most civil servants are trying to do the right thing.

This morning I want to write a few words about the value brought by the federal government’s weather and climate agency, NOAA, in general; and one of its organizations, the National Weather Service, in particular. We strongly believe that NOAA and the National Weather Service provide tremendous value to American taxpayers that cannot easily be replicated by private companies—most definitely including Space City Weather.

NOAA collects an extraordinary amount of data about our planet’s atmosphere and oceans every day. They send hundreds of weather balloons into the skies. They have a vast network of buoys and weather stations. They operate state-of-the-art radars. When there is a hurricane, NOAA and its partners operate a fleet of aircraft and professionals that fly into the maw of the storm to gather vital data that is used to make warnings, and improve forecasts.

It not only collects this data, but NOAA plays an important role in weather modeling, operating one of the world’s premiere computational forecast systems. Moreover, its high-resolution models are vital to predicting thunderstorms and severe weather on a local scale, as well as the evolution of hurricanes. Matt and I use these high-resolution models every day. And NOAA shares all of this data and information, for free, with the world to improve weather prediction.

During hurricane season, much of the world looks to the National Hurricane Center in Miami for actionable information. But within NOAA there is also the Storm Prediction Center, which forecasts tornado outbreaks and other severe weather; the Weather Prediction Center, which forecasts rainfall amounts; and of course the National Weather Service, which has offices around the country, including one in the Houston-Galveston area. Dedicated meteorologists there provide around-the-clock forecasts and issue life-saving warnings. Matt and I know these people, and they work really hard for all of us.

Local decisionmakers and Emergency Management System officials in every city and county in America rely on local forecast officers for everything from closing roads and schools, to calling for evacuations and or opening cooling centers, and so much more.

So can’t we just privatize all of this? Not easily. Most private weather companies do not collect essential data about our atmosphere or oceans, or issue public warnings. Typically, they provide proprietary forecasts that tailor and fine-tune public information for specific applications beyond the core mission of the National Weather Service. No private company could provide high quality forecasts if not for the data that NOAA freely disseminates.

What about just getting forecasts from the app on my phone? Well, a lot of the weather apps on your phone are serviced by back-end data provided by the National Weather Service (including ours), or the models operated by NOAA. And those fancy radars on your phone telling you when to stay put? Those are operated by NOAA.

The bottom line is that it would be a bad idea to take a hammer and start whacking NOAA and the National Weather Service. If there is bloat, or fraud, or waste, by all means root it out. But if we destroy the core mission of these valuable federal weather services, we will all lose.

Monday

Temperatures this morning are somewhat cooler, with a weak front having pushed into Houston and all the way down to the coast. The key word here is weak, and the front’s impact won’t last for long, especially for areas south of I-10. With that said, temperatures today will generally be in the upper 60s, with cloudy skies helping to keep us on the cooler side. Winds will be out of the east this morning, but should gradually turn southeast this afternoon and evening, and this southerly flow will only allow lows to drop into the low- to mid-60s for much of Houston.

Tuesday

Weather on Tuesday will be warmer and more dynamic. Highs will reach near 80 degrees for much of the area, with mostly cloudy skies. There will be a chance for some light showers on Tuesday morning, with an increasing chance of rain and the potential for some thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening as the upper atmosphere becomes more perturbed. Rain chances slacken a bit Tuesday night, with lows dropping into the upper 60s.

Wednesday

This will be another warm day, with highs in the 70s to 80 degrees. We’re going to see another chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cool front, which should arrive later in the day. It is not entirely clear how long it will take the cooler and drier air to move down through the area, but Wednesday night will be notably cooler for areas inland of Interstate 10, with cooler air probably coming in for coastal areas later.

Thursday

This will be a notably cooler day, with highs likely topping out in the upper 50s, with a mixture of sunshine and clouds. We can’t rule out a few lingering showers. Lows on Thursday night will probably drop into the 40s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

At this point, it looks like we’ll start warming up again on Friday and especially Saturday, with highs climbing back into the 70s by Saturday, with rising humidity levels. Another cold front appears likely to pass through the area on Saturday night-ish, which will push us back into winter-like temperatures on Sunday, with highs likely only in the upper 50s or so. The details on this are a bit fuzzy, but basically Saturday should be warm, and Sunday quite a bit cooler with a better chance for clear skies.

Next week

Our roller coaster weather continues, most likely, with a succession of fronts bringing varying weather conditions from spring- to winter-like. Several readers with itchy gardening inclinations have asked about the likelihood of another freeze in the Houston area this year, and that’s a topic I’ll address in tomorrow’s post.

In brief: Houston’s rinse and repeat of periodic fog and very warm, humid conditions will continue through at least Sunday. Rain chances nudge up a bit next week, and we still suspect a front may eventually, possibly arrive here later in the week. We also dive in further on sea fog today.

More on sea fog

Eric’s talked a lot about sea fog this week, and it remains a pestilence across the coastal waters. Galveston finally broke free of fog for a while late yesterday. But, it’s back now. And if you’re asking yourself whether or not this is normal, the answer is actually yes. February and December are our two biggest fog months in Houston, particularly near the coast. Why? As Eric explained earlier this week, the process of sea fog involves cool shelf waters and warm, humid air crossing over them. In December, it’s a combination of our first cold of the winter, followed by a warm-up. Or it could be driven by non-sea fog, or what we call “radiation fog,” which is just fog that happens over land due to radiational cooling under clear skies at night, not the advective sea fog. The key difference? Radiation fog usually dissipates by mid to late morning. Sea fog may stick around or appear at random points during the entire day.

February usually marks the transition to spring, and the cold of winter has taken its toll on the shelf waters just offshore. The combination of that first taste of spring-like warmth and the cold Gulf water happens most often between February and early March. Once we get to mid-March, the cold spells usually relax, the shelf waters begin to warm, and the mechanism for sea fog disappears. Thus, the frequency of dense fog advisories plummets.

My previous day job role in the LNG industry required some serious fog forecasting chops, and let me tell you, for those operating or running critical businesses in Gulf Coast ports or forecasting for them, these events are full of stress. I have likened the stress of working a one-week fog event to that of the stress involved with forecasting a hurricane. You can click here to view a near-real time ship traffic map. Notice the clusters of ships amassing off the coast? They’re waiting to arrive in ports like Houston, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Sabine Pass, etc. Harder to see are the numerous vessels also “stuck” in port that have to depart. Each day lost to fog can cost companies tens of millions of dollars or more. Stack it up over a week, and you can do the math. It’s a lot of money. No pressure.

Today through Sunday

Does it end? How many more records can we break? This is the 6th warmest four day stretch on record in winter (December through February) in Houston. We’ve averaged about 75.1° so far this week. The record for four days is 76.4° set back in December of 2021. Yesterday was our fourth consecutive record high (83°), breaking 2019’s 82°.

Today’s record of 86° from 2017 seems safe. Clouds and fog should again hold us back a bit, so again look for low-80s for highs. Tomorrow? It may be a tick or two warmer, but the record of 87°, also set in 2017 would appear safe at the moment. Let’s not forget Super Sunday! More of the same. Another day in the low-80s, which is hopefully around the same value as Patrick Mahomes’s passer rating. Fly Eagles, Fly!

As for the fog, look for continued chances of afternoon or early evening clearing at the coast and a bit less inland fog than we’ve seen this week. Still, it will be around, and it will be dense at times, so use caution driving particularly in the morning hours.

Next week

The first attempt at a cold front will actually occur Sunday. The front may sneak into the Brazos Valley or as far south as Huntsville or even Conroe. It won’t severely knock back temperatures, but it could cool things temporarily up that way by 10 degrees or so. It appears that the front retreats back north Monday and Tuesday before maybe finally making a swipe at the area Wednesday or Thursday.

We may begin to see more showers crop up each afternoon starting Tuesday. That could transition into a better chance of showers and storms by Thursday, pending an actual front getting here. I would not get too worked up about rain chances at this time; they don’t look too exciting. Still, we’ll see how the weekend changes affect that story Monday.

How cold will it get behind the front? Well, at this point, we’re fighting a battle between very, very warm conditions over the Southeast and very, very cold conditions up north. Western Canada looks to get punished next week. The forecast high temperature in Calgary from the European ensemble next Friday is -22 degrees. It may not get any warmer than minus 20 degrees there on a couple days. Will any of that cold get down here? A modified version of it might later next week, but I don’t know that we see even a widespread light freeze at this point. For now, expect a couple rounds of more muted cold here into mid-February with details to be sorted out next week.

In brief: Houston’s above-normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, as we feel like late spring outside. A weak front approaches the area on Sunday, but significantly cooler weather will not arrive until some time next week.

Thursday

We’re seeing additional areas of patchy fog this morning, due to warm air moving over coastal waters, and this pattern is likely to continue through at least Saturday morning. Once the fog dissipates, we’ll experience mostly sunny skies and another warm day, with high temperatures in the low 80s. If you’re wondering whether this is normal for early February, no it is not. These high temperatures are characteristic of late April, and our overnight lows of early May. Winds will generally be light today, from the south at 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid-60s for most locations.

Friday

Good news: If you liked Thursday’s weather, Friday will be a carbon copy.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will be quite warm, with high temperatures likely pushing into the mid-80s for areas away from the coast. We will see a mixture of sunshine and clouds, and lows only dropping into the upper 60s. If you have outdoor plans on Saturday there are few concerns aside from the warmer-than-normal conditions.

Sunday

A fairly weak front will approach the Houston area and then stall out on Sunday. Precisely what this means for our weather is not certain, but I think we’ll probably just see a few degrees knocked off of high temperatures. I’m thinking highs in the upper 70s for most of Houston, with partly sunny skies. Given the proximity of the front, we cannot entirely rule out a few sprinkles, but I think we’ll be mostly rain free. Sunday night may be a few degrees cooler.

Next week

We’re probably going to start off next week in the 70s, and we’ll likely see daily rain chances on the order of 30 to 40 percent as the atmosphere becomes a bit more turbulent due to some upper-level disturbances. Eventually this is likely to bring in some cooler and more seasonable air, but whether that happens on Tuesday or Wednesday, or a bit later in the week is yet to be determined. We shall see.

In brief: Houston’s early February warm spell is bringing record high temperatures and plenty of sea fog, and this pattern is unlikely to change before at least Sunday. And even then there is some uncertainty about the timing and strength of a front that will be moving down toward Houston.

Unseasonably warm

We’re starting to set some fairly serious heat records with this present warm spell. The high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport on Tuesday afternoon reached 84 degrees, smashing the previous record of 81 degrees for the city of Houston, set during 1957. The city of Galveston, too, eked out a new record of 75 degrees, besting a mark of 74 degrees originally set way, way, way back in 1890 (and subsequently tied in 1957). With a very warm southerly flow in place for the remainder of the week, we can expect more records to fall in the coming days.

Wednesday

Warm air temperatures are continuing to contribute to the development of sea fog across coastal areas, as this air moves over the cooler Gulf waters. In addition, we’re seeing some light, misty rain in coastal areas. If you’re driving through the soupy air, take a little extra time and give the car ahead of you a little more space. This fog should dissipate between 9 and 10 this morning. Afterward, highs today will reach around 80 degrees under mostly sunny skies. Winds will be from the south at about 10 mph, with higher gusts. Lows tonight may briefly drop into the upper 60s.

Thursday and Friday

The warm pattern continues, with sea fog possible in the early morning hours. Highs will be in the lower 80s, with mostly sunny skies and southerly winds. Nights will be warm, in the upper 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

We can be confident in the weather for the first half of the weekend. It will be warm, with partly sunny skies, and highs in the lower to possibly mid-80s, pushing record levels. (This is moderately amusing because about 10 days ago you may recall some social mediarologists telling us about an “Arctic blast” coming through during the weekend of Saturday, February 8). A weak front will approach the Houston area on Saturday night and Sunday, but it remains an open question as to whether the front will make it all the way into Houston proper. Accordingly my best guess is that highs reach about 80 degrees on Sunday, but there’s some uncertainty around that. As the front stalls, we may see a few scattered showers.

Next week

At some point next week a stronger push of cooler air is likely to come down, but how strong and how long it lasts remains to be seen. Perhaps we’ll see a night or two in the 40s.