In brief: This short update is to inform you that potentially severe thunderstorms are on Houston’s doorstep, and will be impacting the region this afternoon. Please be weather aware for the next several hours.

Good afternoon. This is just a short post to note that, as expected, a line of strong thunderstorms is advancing into the Houston metro area as of 1:15 pm CT. We anticipate the period of most threatening and severe weather will occur from now through about 7 pm CT. Here’s what to expect during that time:

• A line of storms presently from El Campo to Sealy to Navasota will steadily progress eastward, likely reaching central portions of the Houston metro area between 2 and 4 pm CT
• These storms will then push steadily eastward, pushing offshore and to the east of Houston by 6 to 8 pm CT
• The primary threats from these storms include heavy rainfall that may briefly flood streets, damaging winds, hail, and possibly tornadoes
• To account for the threat of tornadoes, the National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch for the entire Houston metro area through 7 pm CT this evening.

Drier air will be moving in behind the storms as a weak front pushes into Houston overnight. Friday morning will (briefly) feel cooler and drier with temperatures in the lower 50s. Don’t get used to the cooler weather, as the onshore flow returns pretty quickly, with Saturday climbing back into the upper 70s. We’ll have full details in our forecast tomorrow morning, but until then, please be weather aware this afternoon and early evening!

In brief: The atmospheric setup today is favorable for severe weather, including hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes. The main threat will come from late this morning until early this evening. After the storms, Houston’s weather turns much calmer for the weekend.

Thursday

After a relatively mild Christmas Day, the atmosphere above Houston is recharged for another round of storms today. Rising moisture levels will spark some scattered showers this morning before an atmospheric disturbance advances into the area. Accordingly, we should start to see some thunderstorms later this morning, and likely becoming more widespread by around noon or so. We will then see the threat of severe weather until about sunset this evening, or shortly thereafter.

What does that mean? Well in addition to heavy rainfall, there may be enough rotation in the atmosphere to support a few tornadoes, enough updraft to support hail, and downdrafts to promote high surface winds. On top of this, although much of the area probably will see about 1 inch of rain, higher accumulations are definitely possible and this may lead to some localized street flooding. The bottom line is that, from late this morning through the early evening hours, you should be prepared for the possibility of disruptive weather.

Skies, otherwise, will be mostly cloudy. Expect highs in the mid-70s. Some moderately drier air will move in with a weak front tonight, allowing for lows to drop into the upper 50s in Houston.

Friday

Friday should be mostly sunny and pleasant, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-70s. Winds will generally be light. As the short-lived front washes out, lows on Friday night will be a bit warmer, in the lower 60s.

Saturday

This will be a warmer, slightly more humid day, with high temperatures in the upper 70s. A front will move through Houston on Saturday evening (exact timing to be determined) and this may bring with it a broken line of showers sometime during the day. I’m not particularly bullish on the potential for showers, but we’ll see. Anyway, Saturday night should be cooler, in the 50s.

Sunday

This should be a lovely day, with highs in the lower 70s, sunshine, and drier air. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the 50s.

Next week

We should see lots of sunshine next week. We’ll be a bit warmer on Monday, but a front looks set to arrive late on Monday night, or New Year’s Eve, to begin the process of bringing temperatures down to more typical levels for this time of year. My early guess at temperatures for the night of New Year’s Eve calls for temperatures in the 50s, with probably mostly clear skies, and breezy conditions. So while it very likely won’t rain during New Year’s celebrations, it could be chilly. Lows should fall into the 40s for most of next week, in the new year.

In brief: Good morning on this fine Christmas Day. Santa sure brought the thunder last night, didn’t he? We are interrupting your holiday with a short update to note that another round of storms is possible Thursday as we see a similar setup: Lots of moisture in the atmosphere and a weak frontal boundary.

Christmas Day

The storms have cleared our area to the east, and we’ll see a calm day today. Look for high temperatures around 70 degrees, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and possibly a few light, lingering showers. Tonight will be mild, with lows in the lower 60s. The bottom line is that, soggy soils aside, any activities today and this evening should be fine.

Thursday

As atmospheric moisture levels rise, we’ll see the possibility of some fog on Thursday morning to go along with some fairly humid conditions. The problem is that we’re going to see another disturbance propagate down from the northwest during the daytime. What this likely means is that the Houston region (particularly coastal areas, maybe?) will see the potential for some scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Then, later on Thursday afternoon or early evening, we’ll see a line of storms move down from the northwest to southeast. I’m not convinced these storms will be as organized as what we saw early on Christmas morning, but there’s the potential for some damaging winds, more hail, and briefly heavy rainfall. They might also strike during rush hour. The storms should clear the area before midnight.

Afterward, Friday and the weekend looks pretty pleasant. We’ll have all the details on that in our forecast on Thursday morning. Until that time, have a wonderful holiday!

In brief: Showers and a few thunderstorms return to the forecast today in Houston. A stronger line of storms will move through the area tonight, likely with lightning in the middle of the night. So Christmas morning could start with a bang. Most of the holiday should be fine, weather-wise. Expect mild temperatures for the remainder of the year.

Clouds streets above Houston streets

Tory Gattis sent in the following photos yesterday, which he observed over Midtown in Houston. These are fairly low lying in the sky, so they’re stratocumulus clouds. The straight-line nature of the clouds is colloquially known as cloud streets, and more formally as horizontal convective rolls. The precise reason why they form is actually not particularly well understood, but they sure are pretty to look at. We will see more clouds today, but they are likely to be of a more ominous nature.

Today, tonight, and Christmas

Houston’s weather will turn more dynamic this morning as an upper-level disturbance approaches the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, with the potential for some slightly more organized activity this evening. High temperatures today will reach the mid-70s, with mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be light, from the southeast. All in all, if you can dodge a few showers and storms, conditions today should not be too disruptive.

However the story could be different tonight, as an organized line of showers and thunderstorms marches down into Houston from the northwest. I expect this line of storms, likely with a fair bit of lightning, to reach areas north and west of Houston (i.e. Katy and The Woodlands) by just before or around midnight, give or take. It should then push through the Houston metro area between midnight and sunrise on Christmas Day. Some of our latest modeling indicates this may be a rather noisy passage, with briefly heavy rainfall and lots of lightning. If Santa’s coming and going doesn’t wake the dogs, these storms probably will. Damaging winds are possible, as well as a slight chance of hail. Most areas should pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain, with some higher bullseyes.

The good news is that the storms should be off the coast and off to the east of the Houston metro area by fairly early on Christmas Day morning. The storms will drag a weak front into the area, so expect high temperatures in the lower 70s on Christmas, with slightly drier air. Some additional light, scattered showers will be possible with partly to mostly cloudy skies, however I think the rain will be over for most. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the upper 50s to 60 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

The front won’t last long, and with a soggy atmosphere in place expect warm days in the mid-70s to end the holiday week. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, and both of these days and nights will have a decent chance of rainfall. These showers should be less explosive than those expected on Christmas morning, and accumulations far less.

Saturday and Sunday

We should see more sunshine this weekend, although we can’t rule out a few showers on Saturday morning ahead of another weak front. Saturday should be nice, with slightly drier air, and nighttime temperatures falling into the 50s. Sunday should also be sunny, with moderately drier air, and highs in the mid-70s. Rain chances are near zero.

Next week

We probably will see the return of a warmer, more southerly flow early next week. We’ll likely also see a slight chance of showers at well. At some point, perhaps on New Year’s Eve, or New Year’s Day, a much stronger front will arrive. This should bring us seasonal weather for 2025, starting the year off on a winter-like note. Details to come.

Merry Christmas to all!

Please do be aware of the potential for storms tonight and early tomorrow. We’ll be keeping an eye on things, and if they look more dramatic than your typical Houston thunderstorms, we will update the site later today. However, if the forecast stays on track we probably will take Christmas Day off from posting. So please have a wonderful day.