Good morning. Houston will have a couple of more sunny days before the forecast turns messy this weekend, with a fair bit of rainfall across the holiday weekend. As for the Christmas Day forecast, unfortunately that’s still a stocking stuffed full of uncertainty.

Tuesday

Today should be a fine winter’s day, with highs in the low- to mid-60s, and partly sunny skies. Our air is starting out rather dry, but with light easterly to southeasterly winds we’re going to see humidity levels start to rebound. We’re still going to see one more night on the cool side, with lows generally dropping into the upper 40s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas, before milder conditions arrive for the rest of the week.

Wednesday

This will probably be the last day we see a lot of sunshine for awhile. Highs will reach about 70 degrees, with southeasterly winds that may, at times, gust up to 20 mph. Lows on Wednesday night will be a warmer, perhaps 10 degrees higher than Tuesday night.

Thursday

Skies will be clouding up on Thursday in response to increasing atmospheric moisture levels. But the overall dynamics in the atmosphere won’t favor rising air, so I don’t expect any significant rain showers yet. Look for highs of about 70 degrees, with lows on Thursday night dropping only to around 60 degrees in Houston. Some rain chances may start to creep in on Thursday night, we’ll see.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Conditions turn unsettled for the weekend. We’re confident that highs will be in the vicinity of 70 degrees, lows around 60, and skies will be mostly cloudy. At this point it looks like there will be a healthy chance of rain each day, perhaps 60 to 70 percent. It’s not going to rain continuously, but there should be some on-again, off-again type showers, with perhaps a few thunderstorms. (The overall setup does not particularly favor severe weather, however). Overall rain accumulations during this period are likely to be 1 to 3 inches.

Christmas Day

I don’t know!

Like, I’m really sorry. But the models (and humble forecasters) are still struggling with the timing of a Pacific cold front. This is important because the front is likely to generate the most favorable conditions for thunderstorms. If this all passes on Sunday night, then Christmas Day could see clearing and cooler weather. But there is absolutely no consensus for this right now, and we could very well end up with a fairly messy Christmas Day with some showers. Temperatures and humidity, too, are going to be dependent on the front. This is all pretty worthless, I know. It’s like Space City Weather is giving you a fruit cake for the holidays this year.

Next week

At some point next week—Monday morning, Monday night?, Tuesday?—the front will be well and truly passed, and our weather should cool down and settle down. We’re likely talking mostly sunny days, highs in the upper 50s or 60s, and lows in the 40s. This cooler pattern is likely to hold out for the remainder of 2023.

Holiday travel

We realize that not everyone is going to hang around Houston for the holidays. With that in mind, Matt has written a US travel guide over on The Eyewall. Of note are the potential for flooding in California this week, and storms in the Rockies, Plains, and Mississippi Valley on Christmas Eve.

Good morning. Houston will see cool temperatures and mostly sunny skies to start this week, but then we’ll see a distinct warming trend for the second half of the week and the weekend. As moisture levels rise the forecast will bring increasing rain chances. As for what all this means for Christmas Day, well, it’s going to depend on the timing of the next front. Things could get a bit messy if the front moves through next Monday, on Christmas Day itself.

Monday

We’re starting out chilly, and generally in the 40s, this morning. It’s going to be a bright and sunny day, with highs in the upper 60s to nearly 70 degrees. Winds will be mostly light, from the north, at 5 to 10 mph. Really, it should be a very fine day for any outdoor activities. We’ll see one more cold night tonight, with temperatures dropping into the low 40s for much of the region tonight, with a few outlying areas possibly touching the upper 30s.

Tuesday

With a bit of a reinforcing shot of cooler air on Monday night, temperatures on Tuesday should trend a bit cooler. We’re looking at highs, perhaps, in the low 60s with partly to mostly sunny skies. However, changes will be afoot in the atmosphere as the high pressure that has brought us clear and colder weather pushes off to the east. This will initially result in an easterly flow at the surface, and allow for temperatures to fall to around 50 degrees on Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be partly sunny days with high temperatures of around 70 degrees. The air will feel a bit more humid as an easterly to southeasterly flow continues. Winds may at times gust to around 20 mph. Nights will be more mild, generally falling to about 60 degrees.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weather looks pretty meh for the weekend ahead of Christmas Day. We’re talking highs in the low 70s, cloudy skies, fairly humid air, and warm nights only falling to around 60 degrees. Oh, and the rain chances. As atmospheric moisture levels ramp up we’ll see a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the three day period, on and off. Much of the area could pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain during the time from Friday through Sunday, but that forecast is written in pencil for now.

Christmas Day and beyond

At some point the showers will end, as a cold front moves through and brings drier air into the region. But the timing of this front is still far from certain. It could be on the morning of Christmas Day. It could be morning on the day after Christmas. I don’t know, and I don’t really feel particularly confident at this time. For now I’m going to predict highs in the 60s on Christmas Day with a healthy chance of showers. There may even be some thunderstorms if the frontal passage is a messy one.

I know you’d like to have some more clarity than that. This forecast is a real lump of coal in your stocking. But hey, Santa Claus is the miracle worker not me. After the front moves through, next week does look quite a bit colder, with highs in the 50s or possibly 60s, and nights perhaps in the 30s and 40s. We’ll see.

Last call for holiday lights

If you like to enjoy festive holiday activities while it feels like a winter wonderland in Texas, the next few days are a good time to plan those visits before we experience a warmer period around Christmas Day. Our longtime partner, Reliant, is here to help Houstonians join in the holiday spirit with two fun attractions!

Galaxy Lights, presented by Reliant (runs through January 7)

What better way to get into the spirit in Space City than with Galaxy Lights, presented by Reliant? The only space-themed light show around at Space Center Houston is one of the most technologically advanced light displays in the state, providing Houstonians with an interactive, out-of-this-world experience! Visitors can experience a 200-foot LED light tunnel, two high-tech kinetic light shows, massive models of each planet, and a showing of the original film “Holidays in Space.” Learn more and purchase tickets here.

Radiant Nature, presented by Reliant (runs through February 25)

New to the Houston Botanic Garden this year, a majestic light display celebrates multicultural holiday festivities during the winter season. Unlike most other holiday light displays, Radiant Nature, presented by Reliant, is a stunning visual experience that can be enjoyed night or day. Visitors will experience a traditional Chinese lantern festival with more than 50 larger-than-life installations, including a 200-foot-long illuminated dragon. You have plenty of time to visit as the exhibit will stay open through the Lunar New Year in February. Learn more and purchase tickets here.

Learn more about these events and, if you’re traveling, other holiday events Reliant supports across the state here: https://www.reliant.com/holidays

After a fairly nice day on Thursday, we are back to the cloud thing again today (though the east side might be seeing a good bit of sun initially). A storm system passing through tonight with a cold front will bring most of us some rain, locally heavy at times, before we clear out for the weekend. Read on for the latest on Christmas below as well.

Today

Most of today will be just fine, with nothing worse than some clouds. A passing shower is possible, especially near Matagorda Bay today or north and west of Houston this afternoon, but the rain should hold off for most of today. After 3 or 4 PM, rain chances do start to increase. Highs will be in the upper-60s to low-70s. Also look for some breezy conditions today, especially over the water and at the coast.

Tonight

The exact timing of the rain will vary from place to place, but generally look for a northwest to southeast progression of rain this evening after about 5 to 6 PM or so. Rain will fall through the night, heavy at times, especially north and west of Houston I think. There will probably be an axis of maximum rainfall that sits north and west of Houston, from Columbus to Conroe to Lake Livingston.

In that area, we’re expecting 1 to maybe as much as 2 inches, with slightly higher or lower amounts depending on exactly how things set up. For most of the city and suburbs, rain will push through but totals will vary a bit more, perhaps as little as a quarter-inch to as much as an inch or so. This will extend south and east until you get to the coast. Some locally heavier rainfall could fall near the immediate coast or just offshore. Some rumbles of thunder and some ponding on roads are certainly possible tonight, but we are not expecting severe weather or significant flooding. Lows will be in the 50s.

Saturday

Any showers should clear the area in the early morning, leaving us with clouds. We should see at least partial clearing during the day Saturday, but temperatures probably won’t get too far past 60 degrees in the afternoon.

Sunday & Monday

Both Sunday and Monday look like a great pair of early winter days. Expect sunshine with lows in the low-40s and highs in the low, maybe mid-60s.

Tuesday through Thursday

We don’t expect any significant weather for the middle of next week, but look for varying periods of sun and clouds. Days that are cloudy will be in the 50s to low 60s, while days with sun will pop into the mid to upper-60s. Morning lows should remain generally in the 40s to perhaps 50s by Thursday.

Piecing together the Christmas period

The Christmas weekend continues to look mild and potentially unsettled. Initially, look for warm weather and probably clouds and some sun with a slight chance of showers Friday and Saturday. It’s tough to pinpoint exactly what the story is next weekend, but between maps and charts, we can start to make some assumptions. Atmospheric moisture is likely to increase in Houston beginning Friday and Saturday. Right now, the European ensemble mean for precipitable water next weekend is around 1.25″ in Houston, which puts us fairly close to the 90th percentile of atmospheric moisture. In simple terms: There will be a good deal of moisture available to produce clouds and showers next weekend in the area.

Moisture doesn’t mean a whole lot unless there is a “trigger” to produce rain and storms. The best setup for that looks to be in interior Texas next Friday and Saturday, but that will march eastward Sunday and Monday, which seems to imply some sort of cold front.

So what’s it all mean? Expect clouds and some shower chances Friday and Saturday with a greater chance of rain on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. Temperatures are likely to be a good deal above normal, with highs in the 70s likely, followed by colder weather after Christmas. We’ll see how this plays out over the weekend and update you with the latest on Monday!

Good morning. Houston faces the prospect of a wet Friday night before cooler weather prevails this weekend and the first half of next week. And although the modeling remains far from unanimous, the most likely outcome for the Christmas holiday in Houston is mild weather with a fairly decent chance of rainfall.

Thursday

Today will be a fairly mild December day, high temperatures in the mid- to upper-60s. We may briefly see some sunshine this afternoon before clouds build again tonight. Winds will blow from the east, with some gusts up to 15 or 20 mph. That will be piling on moisture into the atmosphere that will support rain showers later on Friday. Low temperatures on Thursday night will only drop into the mid-50s for most of Houston, with slightly cooler conditions further inland.

Friday

The day will start cloudy, and we’ll probably see high temperatures push into the upper 60s despite the clouds. Some light rain showers will be possible during the morning hours, but the most likely scenario is that any more organized showers won’t push into the Houston metro area until the late afternoon or evening hours. This system will move from west to east ahead of a surface front. Overall rain accumulations for most areas on Friday night will be quite manageable, with 0.5 to 1.5 inches of precipitation. However, there is definitely the potential for some heavy rainfall for isolated areas, and this may briefly cause some street flooding.

Saturday

The front should move through by around midnight or shortly after, and it now appears that this should bring a fairly swift end to our rain chances. We can’t rule out of a few lingering showers on Saturday morning, but I expect they’ll be rather scattered. Look for highs of about 60 degrees, clearing skies, and much drier air as winds blow from the north at about 15 mph, and gust to 25 mph or higher during the daytime. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the 40s.

Sunday

This should be a sunny day, with highs in the low- to mid-60s and plenty of dry air. Winds remain out of the north, but should be slackening. Lows on Sunday night will be chilly, dropping into the low 40s.

Next week

So what’s on tap for the final week before the Christmas holiday? The first half of the work week should generally be sunny and cool, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Then we’re going to see a moderate warming trend heading into the weekend, with highs perhaps in the upper 60s and lows in the 50s. After that the forecast turns fuzzy, but it does seem as though we’re going to see the return of some rain chances by the weekend, quite possibly persisting through Christmas Eve and Day. At some point the next front will come through, but whether this is just before, on, or just after Christmas Day is simply unknowable at this time.