In brief: Cool air is settling back into the Houston area this morning, and a secondary push of it arrives Friday night. Look for increasing sunshine today, then plenty of sunshine through Sunday. Clouds and some scattered rain chances do come back next week, including potentially for Christmas Eve and Day. Temperatures will also surge back into the 70s.

Today & Friday

We’re starting off the morning on a cool, crisp note across the Houston area.

There are a couple pockets of low clouds that need to scour out this morning, but the trend today will be toward increasing sunshine with highs into the 60s in most spots.

Tomorrow looks pretty similar overall. Sunshine should dominate the picture, with highs generally in the 60s and lows generally in the 30s to low-40s. A light freeze cannot be entirely ruled out way north of the city, probably up toward Crockett or Madisonville by Saturday morning. But no freezing temps are expected in the city or suburbs as it stands right now.

Saturday and Sunday

A weak secondary push of cold air arrives Friday night to extend the cool weather into the weekend. Our coolest day will probably be Saturday, also conveniently the Winter Solstice (at 3:21 AM for those of you looking to close out a fun Friday night on a celebratory note). Look for highs in the 50s, maybe low-60s south of Houston. Sunday should be a few ticks warmer with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Both days look sun-filled.

Monday

Onshore flows kicks back in next week, and we’ll probably see a few more clouds on Monday in addition to some sun. We’ll ramp high temperatures back up close to 70 in the afternoon with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Christmas Eve

Timing-wise, the next storm system to impact the state is a bit suboptimal, moving in on Christmas Eve. The good news is that we do not expect a ton of rain and storms, but unfortunately there will be at least some rain and storms around on Christmas Eve that could play a role with any events on Tuesday. We move temps up to the low to mid-70s.

Christmas Day and beyond

Well, Christmas Day looks fairly similar to Christmas Eve right now with warm temps and some scattered rain chances. Morning lows should be in the 50s to near 60 on Christmas, with daytime highs ramping up into the mid-70s. We could get a weak cool front on Thursday with a chance of more numerous showers and storms and a slight cooldown for Friday. Then we should warm back up with at least a non-zero chance for an 80 again somewhere in our area next weekend or so. Our next meaningful front is at least showing on the models around New Years Day, but obviously that’s still 12 days out so don’t bank on that just yet.

In brief: Houston’s fling with warm, muggy, and at-times foggy weather will end today with the passage of a cold front this afternoon. This will usher in several days of sunny, cooler weather with ample dry air. A warming trend returns next week, but the overall outlook for Christmas Day is mild, with rain chances near zero.

Sea fog

Conditions are ideal this morning for the development of dense fog, and we are seeing just that with light winds and saturated air. Visibility in some locations is as low as one-quarter of a mile, and it is making driving hazardous and slower than normal. And hey, driving in Houston at rush hour is already pretty slow and hazardous, you know? The fog should dissipate by a couple of hours after sunrise, and with drier air moving in this afternoon it will no longer be a concern for awhile.

Wednesday

After the fog clears this morning skies should be partly to mostly sunny, and highs will likely reach at least the lower 70s today with plenty of humidity. The front should push into northwestern regions by around noon today, as a broken line of showers (with perhaps a few thunderstorms). This line will progress rapidly toward the coast, and likely be offshore by the mid- to late-afternoon hours. Gusty northerly winds will follow, quickly dropping dewpoints. Temperatures will fall to around 60 degrees by sunset, and most of Houston will bottom out in the upper 40s by early Thursday.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of fine, clear days with high temperatures in the low- to mid-60s. Winds will generally be light, from the north. Thursday night will again see lows in the upper 40s, but Friday night into Saturday morning will be chillier due to a reinforcing front. Expect some inland areas to reach the mid- to upper-30s.

Saturday

This will be the coldest day of the forecast period, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to perhaps 60 degrees, with plenty of sunshine. Lows Saturday night will drop to the low 40s in Houston.

Sunday

Another sunny day, with highs in the low 60s probably, and a bit warmer conditions Sunday night.

Next week

Most of next week looks warmer, with highs generally in the 70s, lows in the upper 50s, and modestly humid air. The models continue to suggest that some rain will be possible later next week, but for now it very likely will hold off for Christmas Day.

In brief: The overall pattern remains the same, with a little more than one day of muggy and warm weather ahead of a cold front that will usher in much more seasonable weather. This front will bring cooler conditions for the rest of the week, and into early next week. However we’ll see a warming trend by Christmas Day next week, when conditions look to be fairly mild.

Tuesday

We’re starting out this morning with fairly widespread fog due to temperatures nearly matching dewpoints, and calm winds. It may persist for an hour or two after sunrise. After that, if you liked Monday’s weather, you’re in luck. Today will be similar, with high temperatures in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, and partly sunny skies. We’ll see a few isolated showers this afternoon, with the barest chance of a thunderstorm. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s, with partly cloudy skies. Expect the possibility of some fog again tonight and on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

Houston will experience the same muggy pattern on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. The timing of the front is a bit uncertain still, but I expect a broken line of showers to advance into Houston from the northwest, perhaps reaching areas such as Katy and the Woodlands around noon-ish, and the coast during the late afternoon hours. Although the showers look to be hit or miss, the region will experience some fairly stiff northwesterly winds almost immediately with the front’s passage. Expect gusts up to 25 mph or so as drier air blows in. Temperatures should drop into the 50s after sunset, and most of the region away from the coast should drop into the upper 40s overnight as skies clear.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of mostly sunny days with high temperatures generally in the mid-60s, and mostly light northerly winds. Thursday night should drop into the upper 40s, but Friday night looks colder with an additional surge of cooler air. Most of the region should drop to around 40 degrees, with some inland areas hitting the upper 30s.

Saturday and Sunday

Mostly sunny and cooler weather continues through the weekend. High temperatures on Saturday will top out at about 60 degrees, with another cold night, followed by mid-60s on Sunday, and a slightly warmer night. We have zero weather concerns about weather during the final weekend before Christmas.

Next week

We continue to expect to see a warming trend beginning next week, which will probably last at least through Christmas Day. There remains some uncertainty in the details, but my best guess for weather by next Wednesday is lows in the upper 50s, highs in the 70s, modest humidity, and partly sunny skies. It’s way too early to have any confidence in whether it will rain or not on the holiday, but it remains a possibility.

In brief: It decidedly did not feel like the holidays this weekend in Houston, and we’ve got a few more warm and muggy days before a front arrives to bring much more seasonal weather into the forecast. There will be plenty of drier air and chilly temperatures this coming weekend. But what of Christmas Day?

December is half over

Believe it or not, the month of December is half over. Until this weekend, the Houston region was experiencing fairly normal weather for this time of year. But highs this weekend were quite a bit above normal. In fact, Sunday morning’s low temperature of 66 degrees was a couple of degrees warmer than the typical high for mid-December. We’ll remain fairly warm and muggy until the arrival of a front on Wednesday afternoon or evening, which will bring cooler conditions through the weekend. As for the upcoming Christmas holiday forecast, I’ll make an attempt below.

Monday and Tuesday

The first two days of this week will be much the same, with high temperatures in the vicinity of the upper 70s to 80 degrees. With sticky dewpoints and light southwesterly winds, each morning will also be a candidate for fog, especially in coastal counties. Skies will be partly sunny during the daytime, with nights muggy and only dropping into the mid- to upper-60s for most locations. There will be a chance for some (mostly) light showers each day, but they will be pretty isolated. All in all, not very festive.

Wednesday

But fortunately, change is coming. Wednesday will start out much the same as the previous two days, which is to say warm and muggy. Some time, probably during the afternoon but it could be earlier or later, a front will move down from the northwest. There is likely to be a broken line of showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, with the front. However, at least half of us, and perhaps more, are unlikely to see much rain. Anyway, temperatures will drop pretty quickly after the front’s passage, so you’ll notice it. Houston should reach highs in at least the mid-70s before the front cools us down. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the 40s for inland areas, and 50s for the urban core of Houston and the coast.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The second half of the week looks to be mostly sunny and significantly cooler, with dry air. Thursday and Friday should be in the 60s, with lows around 50, and Saturday and Sunday a bit cooler still as a reinforcing push arrives. Lows this weekend should drop into the 40s in Houston, with the upper 30s possible for far inland areas. The last full weekend before Christmas should feel very holiday-like!

And what lies under the tree for Christmas Day?

Only a fool would try to make a point forecast for nine days from now, but I will step forward this morning to be the sacrificial fool. It’s pretty clear that we’re going to see a warming trend by Monday and Tuesday of next week. But how warm will we get?

Right now the best ballpark guess for Christmas morning is temperatures somewhere in the 50s, with partly cloudy skies. High temperatures probably will get into the low- to mid-70s. Dewpoints don’t look crazy high, so right now I don’t expect a muggy day such as we experienced this past Sunday. By the middle of next week the pattern will be supportive of rain, but there’s no strong signal yet for any widespread rain on Christmas Day. All of this could, of course, change. But right now the outlook is for an at-least somewhat pleasant day.