In brief: Saturday’s forecast in Houston has some perplexity to it in terms of when and where storms will occur, but we’re leaning toward a quieter first half of the day, with storm chances increasing Saturday evening and overnight. Hail is possible in a couple of the strongest storms. Sunday could see locally strong storms with heavy downpours. Don’t forget to “spring forward” Saturday night!

We’ve got some more active weather in the cards for this weekend but nothing that’s too scary. It’s mostly going to serve as a reminder that we still get storms here sometimes!

Today

No real concerns today, as we’re likely to see clouds, some sun, and highs in the 80s. There could be a passing pocket of light rain or a shower. Even a rogue thunderclap can’t be entirely ruled out this afternoon, especially north and west of Houston. Continue to be mindful of dense, erratic sea fog near the coast. We may see that break up some today and return tonight.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast gets busier for this weekend. While an isolated shower or storm can’t be ruled out overnight, especially off to the northwest of Houston, it doesn’t appear much will occur before tomorrow morning. However, on Saturday, we expect showers and thunderstorms to develop later in the afternoon or evening. The entire area away from the coast is under a slight risk (2/5) for severe thunderstorms on Saturday.

Based on what I can tell from forecast models and the NWS discussions, the primary driver for the slight risk is potential for isolated large hail. Storms could still carry lightning obviously or isolated strong wind gusts, but from a “severe” perspective, hail seems to be driving the risk. That said, we do not expect hail all over the city…I just want to make that clear. Any large hail would probably be confined to a few neighborhoods only in the strongest storms.

But what about timing? Well, the European model has insisted for days now that a squall line of storms would push through Houston in the afternoon hours. Now that we’re in range of higher resolution model guidance, the picture is a lot murkier. Most high-res models keep most of the area storm free during the daylight hours Saturday. You can compared the Euro to the HRRR model above. However, by later Saturday evening, that may be when you’ve got the chance for stronger storms in a few spots, especially north and west of Houston. So there’s some inherent uncertainty tomorrow, but for the most part I don’t think you’ll have too many issues in the morning or early afternoon. Storm chances will perk up in the later afternoon and evening hours, especially north and west of Houston I think. We’ll update you on this tomorrow morning.

For Sunday, right now I would say scattered thunderstorms throughout the day, with perhaps a focus north of I-10 in the first half of the day and south of I-10 in the second half of the day. Locally strong storms are possible, and one or two could put down some significant rainfall in a short amount of time, so be mindful of street flooding in areas that see the most persistent storms Sunday.

Rodeo forecast

If you’re headed to the Rodeo this weekend, you’ve got few concerns tonight for Lizzo. It looks good. There will be that chance of a thunderstorm on Saturday, especially upon exiting Dwight Yoakam. Just be aware of the potential, but as noted above, storms will at least be possible. Temps will be in the low to mid-70s each evening. Sunday may be the highest odds of showers and thunderstorms, along with locally heavy rain. Even if it isn’t raining when you leave, if you’re headed to see Forrest Frank, you’ll want the raincoat and a little extra time to get to and from NRG Stadium just in case. Temps should be in the mid to upper-70s.

Early next week

Monday and Tuesday look sufficiently quiet right now with nothing worse than a rogue shower. Highs will be in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s and low-70s.

Wednesday

After those quieter days Monday and Tuesday, it does look like we get a quick but potent storm system in the area on Wednesday. It’s too soon to speak with much confidence about this system or its potential, but early indications are that there will be at least some strong to perhaps severe storms, especially the first half of Wednesday, especially north of I-10. The SPC has highlighted the north side of the city in Wednesday’s severe weather risk, which is akin to saying a slight risk (2/5) this far out.

More to come on this next week.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the recent and ongoing sea fog as well as our warmer than usual temperatures. Then our attention turns to the likelihood of storms this weekend as a front sags into Houston and brings much needed rain.

But first, some chat about fog on the blog

Are you tired of the fog yet? I know some readers like the eerie quality or semblance of “stillness” that fog brings. But if you need to be out and about late at night or early in the morning, it can be a real hazard. We’ve been seeing frequent fog near the coast this week, and this “sea fog” is due to the warmer air moving over cooler surface waters near the shore. Unfortunately, with the warmer temperatures we are likely to see through the weekend, sea fog will remain a persistent threat during the late evenings through mid-mornings for some coastal locations.

Thursday

Cloudy skies this morning will give way to partly sunny skies this afternoon, with high temperatures likely topping out in the low- to mid-80s. This will depend on the extent of sunshine at your location. We did see a few very light sprinkles on Wednesday in parts of Houston, but I feel like, overall, our chances for rain today will be pretty close to zero. Humidity levels will remain rather high for this time of year.

Rodeo forecast

It’s going to be fairly warm this evening, with temperatures in the upper 70s. The other defining feature that rodeo goers will experience is gusty southerly winds, perhaps up to 25 mph, although these will die down as the evening progresses. Temperatures after the show will be the in the 70s, only falling to around 70 degrees by early Friday morning.

Friday

This day will be rather similar to Thursday, with two possible changes. First of all, those southerly winds might be even a little bit stronger, gusting up to possibly 30 mph from the south during the afternoon. The other difference is that there is perhaps a 30 percent chance of light showers during the daytime or evening. Lows, again, will be very warm for early March.

Saturday and Sunday

So will the weekend bring a rain-o-rama? It’s still a little difficult to pin down precise details, but roughly speaking here’s what I think will happen. Saturday will be another warm and humid day like those preceding it. There will be a better chance of light daytime showers, perhaps on the order of 30 percent. But I don’t expect these to be significant or disruptive.

On Saturday afternoon or early evening a (dying) front is going to approach and potentially move into the Houston metro area. I expect there to be a goodly number showers and thunderstorms with this front. Whether these storms make it all the way to the coast will depend on where the front stalls, but at this point I think there is a decent chance of everyone seeing some rain. I’m hopeful, for the purposes of our spring vegetation, that we pick up 0.5 to 2 inches this weekend, with higher isolated totals, but again some uncertainty remains.

I mentioned thunderstorms and there is slight risk for some severe weather with this front as it moves in and stalls, and again I think the most likely timing for this is probably Saturday evening. So bear that in mind if you’re planning to be out and about.

Sunday, for much of the region, should be a few degrees cooler due to widespread cloud cover, the aforementioned front, and ongoing rain chances during the day. The potential for thunderstorms and severe weather should be diminished however. The bottom line is that from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning we’re going to need to be mindful of the possibility of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, but I’m not saying everyone will see these conditions.

Next week

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week will see ongoing warm temperatures, with highs in the low 80s and mostly cloudy skies. There will be a modest chance of daily rain chances. A front should arrive some time on Wednesday to bring us clearer skies and drier air and probably a few nights in the 50s. Two weeks into March it may finally feel like March.

In brief: In today’s post we review the last six months of precipitation across Texas (spoiler alert, it’s been very dry). We then look ahead to warm and muggy weather for the rest of the week, and spiky rain chances this weekend.

We could use some rain

We’ve been banging on it for awhile now, but the greater Houston region continues to remain in a very dry pattern. During the last six months large chunks of the metro area have received just 25 to 50 percent of normal rainfall (see map below), leading to a drought. This has not caused serious problems yet, because the drought has coincided with the coolest time of year. But as we get deeper into spring, if we do not get rain soon, the dryness of our soils will start to accelerate as days get longer and hotter. Anyway, I write all of that to say I don’t believe this weekend’s rains will significantly dent our drought, but they could still help.

Wednesday and Thursday

The next two days will be pretty much carbon copies of one another. We are starting out this morning with overcast skies and very warm temperatures for early March, not having fallen below 70 degrees in some locations. Winds are fairly light this morning, but will become gusty this afternoon, perhaps up to 20 mph. High temperatures across the region will generally vary from about 80 degrees right along the coast to mid-80s for inland areas.

Rodeo forecast

If you’re headed to the party this evening you can expect mild temperatures in the 70s. Although we may briefly see some sunshine this afternoon, I expect clouds to be building back by early evening and remain persistent through the night. Overnight lows will once again only drop down to around 70 degrees across the region.

Friday

This day will also be a lot like Wednesday and Thursday, in terms of mostly cloudy skies, temperatures in the low- to mid-80s, and plenty of humidity. There will also be the ongoing chance of fog overnight, near the coast. However the one difference starting on Friday will be a slight chance of some showers, more likely later in the day, as a cool front sags toward the area. Any rain would likely be light in nature.

Saturday and Sunday

Alright, so what does the weekend hold? We are going to see a battle in the atmosphere between an approaching disturbance from the northwest (which will bring plenty of rain into central and northern Texas) against lingering high pressure to our east. There will be plenty of atmospheric moisture. It is going to come down to where the frontal boundary stalls, and for now this appears likely to happen north of the Houston area. Accordingly the greatest likelihood of rain is there as well. I continue to predict that most of our region will pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches this weekend, but I’m more confident of that occurring inland of Highway 59/I-69 than I am for coastal areas, further away from the stalled boundary. Temperatures this weekend should remain warm, in the low 80s, with plenty of clouds and humidity.

Next week

Our abnormally warm weather will continue into next week before the arrival of a front, probably on Wednesday, brings us back to March-like weather for a few days. I believe there will be additional rainfall with this front, perhaps some decent showers and thunderstorms, but at a week out any predictions are not made with confidence.

In brief: In today’s post we talk about our anomalously warm start to March weather, and look ahead to increased rain chances this weekend. Unfortunately, there are still some details to iron out there.

March (temperature) madness

Generally, March is my favorite month of the year weather-wise in Houston. Our temperatures are not too hot, and not too cold. During the first part of the month the average high is typically around 70 degrees, and the average low is is 50 degrees. We usually have not yet reached the spring storm season. However this March is starting out quite a bit warmer than usual. And for the next 7 to 10 days we can expect to see highs in the low- to mid-80s, with very warm nights. If you’re wondering when March might start to feel like March again, the models do take a pretty decisive turn toward the chillier side about nine days from now, but until then, it will feel like late April outside, especially at night.

Tuesday

Today will bring a slight chance of light showers this morning, perhaps 10 percent, before our mostly cloudy skies give way to partly sunny conditions this afternoon. High temperatures will reach the low- to mid-80s, with temperatures depending on the extent of afternoon sunshine between 3 and 5 pm. With dewpoints in the mid- to upper-60s, it will feel moderately sticky outside.

Rodeo weather

It won’t quite be hold-on-to-your-hat weather at the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo this afternoon, but we will see winds gust up to about 25 mph from the south this afternoon, and it will still be breezy during the early evening hours. Temperatures heading into the rodeo will be in the mid-70s, with conditions only a few degrees cooler afterwards. Fog development will be possible after midnight, and this will be the case for much of the rest of the week.

Wednesday

A cold front will be moving into north Texas on Wednesday, but it will stall out well north of the Houston metro area. There is a marginal risk of thunderstorms far north of our area, but in Houston itself I don’t think we’re likely to see much in the way of rainfall or impacts. Rain chances may be on the order of 20 percent, with partly sunny skies and highs in the lower 80s for most. Nighttime lows will drop to around 70 degrees, and I don’t need to say more about warm nights because this is the way it’s going to be through the early part of next week.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of days with cloudy starts and partly sunny afternoons, allowing high temperatures to reach the low- to mid-80s during the afternoon hours. There is a slight chance of rain on Friday.

Saturday, Sunday and Monday

This weekend will continue to see warm weather in the 80s, with fairly muggy air. The question is rainfall. And it is a legitimate question. A front is going to push down closer to the region, and stall somewhere. Depending where this stalls it could bring heavy rainfall to parts of Houston, but if it stops far enough north of the city then Houston is unlikely to see all that much rain. This makes the forecast difficult. In general I think most of the area will see between 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain through Monday, but there is a risk of higher totals than this, or lower totals, and I expect amounts to vary widely. So we just need some more time to iron out a more detailed forecast for you. I know a lot of us are excited about the potential for significant spring-time rainfall, but it’s not a slam dunk yet.

Next week

At some point next week, perhaps on Wednesday, we are likely (although at this distance, not certain) to see a stronger front move all the way through the city and push offshore. This could bring another healthy chance of rainfall before exiting offshore, and push our overnight temperatures down in the vicinity of 50 degrees. We’ll see.