In brief: The Houston area has had a wet week, and by and large this has been beneficial for the region before the onset of summer and the lurking potential for drought. We have a final chance late tonight and on Friday as a weak front moves into the area, providing a spark for showers. After that we’ll see June-like weather as June begins.

Rain status

Houston has picked up some much needed precipitation this week, with a vast majority of the region picking up up 2 to 5 inches of rainfall as a series of disturbances have passed through. As rarely happens, for Houston at this time of year, the region got just enough rain rather than too much; with our soils receiving a good drenching without too many flooding issues. This week’s rains put us in a much better posture heading into the coming summer, drought-wise.

Our rain chances have not ended. The primary driver over the next 36 hours will be an advancing front that stalls near the coast on Friday, bringing some decent rain chances to areas along and south of Interstate 10, before pushing offshore. However, we don’t expect too much in the way of organized storm activity. Oh, and if you’re tired of the rain, after Friday conditions look mostly dry for at least the next week or so.

Thursday

Our weather today will be mostly sunny, with high temperatures this afternoon pushing up to around 90 degrees or a touch higher. Winds, generally, will be light. (If you like to go bike riding in the evening, this will be especially noticeable). I think it’s possible that we will see some isolated to scattered showers this afternoon, but for the most part the region should be rain-free. Lows tonight will be muggy, in the upper-70s for most locations.

Friday

On Thursday night a front will be pushing through Central Texas, and we could see a fairly strong line of showers and thunderstorms along the I-35 corridor advancing toward the Houston area. But as of now, I expect these storms to weaken some as they move down toward Houston. Still, I think the region will see a healthy possibility of some showers and thunderstorms on Friday morning, perhaps around sunrise or a bit later. We cannot rule out some hail and damaging winds with these storms, but overall odds seem fairly low.

As the front nears the coast it could stall, and thus for coastal counties we may see some lingering showers in the afternoon (or they may simply remain offshore). Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy on Friday, with light winds from the northwest. Highs will be around 90 degrees, with lows in the lower 70s.

Saturday

The front will usher in some briefly drier air. Don’t expect much, but humidity may be a tad lower on Saturday. Expect highs in the upper 80s with partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows on Saturday night may again drop into the lower 70s. Rain chances are near zero.

Sunday

Temperatures should reach around 90 degrees, or slightly above, with mostly sunny skies. We may see a few scattered showers during the afternoon as humidity levels recover some. Lows on Saunday night will drop into the mid-70s.

Next week

Most of next week should see mostly sunny skies with highs in the low 90s. We cannot rule out temperatures rising toward the mid-90s by the end of the week. However, conditions will feel fairly typical for June in Houston, which is to say hot and humid. Rain chances are low each day, but probably non-zero as a few areas may catch a stray shower.

In brief: Scattered to numerous storms will impact the Houston area once more today. Severe risks, while low are not zero. We’ll remain unsettled heading into the late week and weekend but hopefully at a less intense pace than we’ve started the week with. Hotter weather lurks on the horizon.

[UPDATE: We’re pulling the trigger on Stage 1 Flood Alert. See the details at the bottom of the post.]

Today

After things calmed down yesterday, they stayed calm, thankfully. We will not have that luxury today. Storms (non-severe) are already moving across Matagorda County and Wharton County this morning.

There are also a couple isolated storms just west of Downtown. Over the next few hours, the activity near Matagorda Bay will slide across Brazoria and Galveston Counties. Some of those storms could be strong to severe with gusty winds. Lightning and heavy rain are a given with these storms as well. Elsewhere, scattered storms will pop across the rest of the area today. While we don’t expect significant severe weather, we cannot rule out isolated severe storms. Gusty winds are the main concern today.

It’s possible we see an additional cluster of storms develop with daytime heating out near College Station and the Brazos Valley. Those could swing through in the evening hours. Again, the primary concern would be isolated gusty wind as that happens.

Also keep an eye out for heavy rainfall. These storms are putting down close to 2 inch per hour rainfall rates. This could cause some street flooding to crop up in spots. Nothing too, too serious but just be mindful in typically flood-prone spots. Temperatures will be held back in the 80s today.

Thursday through Sunday

We may venture back to a somewhat less widespread coverage of storm chances here, with more sea breeze driven daily thunderstorms. Those tend to be less intense but can produce locally heavy rainfall. So all days should see the potential for a little street flooding in isolated spots. Many places would end up without much rain. One or two storms could be strong.

That said, we will want to keep tabs on what happens out in western Texas. We’ll be in a northwest flow aloft, as winds 20,000 feet up move from northwest to southeast across Texas. If any sort of complexes of storms can develop out west, they could end up nearby eventually. Models don’t do a great job predicting those features more than 18-36 hours out, so there’s certainly a tinge of uncertainty in the forecast. So with all that in mind, we don’t currently expect widespread storms but we’ll be babysitting the situation through the week.

Temperatures look to top out in the upper-80s on days with rain and low-90s on days without. Morning lows should generally be in the 70s.

Next week

A return to drier, hotter weather seems likely next week. High pressure may try to anchor over the Southeast or Gulf, which would keep Southeast Texas at least at the periphery of hot weather, with temperatures likely starting the week in the low 90s and moving upward from there.

Mid-90s will probably return at some point. Stay tuned.

Update: Storms this morning are producing localized torrential downpours with rates of 2-4 inches per hour that will cause heavy ponding and some street flooding in spots. As as result, we’re pulling the trigger on a Stage 1 alert on our Flood Scale.

In brief: Houston rocked and rolled on Monday night as a storm system rumbled through, but in its wake we’re seeing calmer and cooler weather this morning. The reprieve will probably last for 12 to 24 hours before widespread showers return on Wednesday and possibly Thursday.

Monday night’s fireworks

As expected, a line of storms roared through the area overnight. Most parts of the Houston region received a good soaking of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. In addition to the front, there were straight-line wind gusts of up to 40 or 50 mph in some locations as the storms blew in. There are a few scattered power outages in the Houston area, but the stronger cells went well north of the city, where electricity issues are more widespread this morning.

You may have had an issue loading Space City Weather last night, and for that I apologize. We had website issues unrelated to the storm, but they should be fixed now. Thank you for your patience.

Tuesday

Light rainfall is lingering near the coast this morning, but these showers should end by mid-morning. Following Monday night’s storms the atmosphere is pretty well worked over, and I expect a fairly quiet day in terms of showers and thunderstorms. Most of the area should see partly sunny skies and highs around 90 degrees today as a result. We might see a few scattered showers pop up late this afternoon or evening, but generally expect calm weather today and tonight. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid-70s.

Wednesday and Thursday

Our overall pattern will remain unsettled through at least Thursday, and therefore we can expect both of these days to produce a healthy chance of showers and possibly some thunderstorms. At this time the likelihood of severe weather is lower than what the region experienced on Monday night, but I’m not ruling anything out, especially on Wednesday. I expect most locations to pick up an additional 0.5 to 2 inches of rainfall through Thursday. High temperatures will be in the vicinity of the upper 80s with warm and muggy nights.

Friday

A weak front will approach the area on Friday, and this may spark an additional chance of rainfall. However at this time any showers look to be mostly light. Rain chances will likely ebb during the afternoon and evening hours as drier air slowly filters in. Look for highs in the upper 80s on Friday, with partly sunny skies, and lows dropping to around 70 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

Our weather this weekend will depend on how that front, stalled near the coast, waffles around. My best guess is that we’ll see partly sunny skies, highs of around 90 degrees, and a slight chance (maybe 20 percent on Saturday and 30 percent on Sunday) of showers and thunderstorms. We’ll see.

Next week

Most of next week looks hotter and sunnier, with highs likely in the lower 90s and low rain chances. So, pretty normal for early June, most likely.

In brief: We hope everyone is enjoying Memorial Day weekend, and we join in remembering all of the US military personnel who gave their lives for this country. The weather should be fine for outdoor ceremonies today. However, Houston will face a series of storm systems this week, including a potentially impactful event tonight. Most of the region should see some much-needed rainfall during the next seven days.

Not a drought, but close

The second half of spring has been fairly dry. Drought conditions are much more acute in central and West Texas, where an exceptional drought has developed ahead of summer. Although Houston is not in a drought, abnormally dry conditions have moved into Brazoria and Waller Counties, with a moderate drought southwest of there. Now that we are approaching the hottest and often driest part of the year, these drought-like conditions would spread into Houston rapidly in June, in the absence of rain. However, as the forecast for this week indicates, that is now unlikely to happen.

Memorial Day and night

A series of disturbances will impact our area’s weather this week, and the first of these is already propagating to the north of College Station this morning. I anticipate that the majority of this activity will remain north of the Houston metro area, likely along Highway 105 and points north in Montgomery County. But we can’t rule out some activity further south. Skies in Houston should be mostly sunny today, with highs in the low 90s and gusty southerly winds. Humidity will, accordingly, be high.

Another disturbance should move into the region this evening, perhaps not reaching Harris County until midnight or later. This has the potential (and the emphasis here is on potential, given the uncertainty) to bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms into the entire region, all the way down to the coast. The most likely time for significant activity is between midnight tonight and noon on Tuesday. Some hail and damaging winds will be possible during thunderstorms, and most locations should pick up 0.5 to 2 inches of rain.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

After these storms we’ll remain in an unsettled pattern for the remainder of the week. Each day will have a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms, perhaps on the order of 50 percent. Accordingly, high temperatures should be in the upper 80s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. To be clear, these days won’t be total washouts. But pop-up showers will be possible at any time.

Friday

By Friday the overall pattern may start to change a little bit, but with an unsettled atmosphere lingering there still will be a decent chance of rain, in the 30 to 50 percent range. Expect partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

By this weekend we should see partly to sunny skies, with highs around 90 degrees. Rain chances won’t go away entirely, but they look to be on the order of maybe 30 percent daily. Next week likely brings us back into the lower 90s, with mostly sunny skies and little to no rain. So stock up this week!