In brief: If you’re celebrating New Year’s Eve tonight, you’ll want a sweater or at least a light jacket as conditions will turn chillier after sunset. With a couple of exceptions, the first few days of the new year will be mild in Houston. But we’re still watching for an incursion of Arctic air about a week from now.

New Year’s Eve hope

It’s been a year, Houston! As I write this on Tuesday morning, the horizon is in that liminal state between twilight and morning, with an orange-ish hue in the southeastern sky, and a fading gray to the northwest. This is my favorite part of the day, so full of potential and promise. Who knows what it will bring?

And so it goes with the new year. In reality, New Year’s Day is just part of an arbitrary calendar imposed on nature. Nevertheless, the end of the year offers us time to reflect on what has gone past, and what is yet to come with the turning of the page. In some ways, this past year was a great year. In other ways, with Hurricane Beryl, the derecho in May, and the torrid summer, it was not a great year. I do not know what this coming year will bring weather-wise (ok, I’m pretty sure there will be plenty of humidity), but I do know that there are some things in life I can control. And that starts with being the best father, husband, and forecaster I can be. And so on this gorgeous morning, the final one of the year 2024, I am hopeful.

New Year’s Eve weather

The final day of this year will be unlike much of what has come before it: chilly and dry. High temperatures today will reach the mid- to upper-60s for many locations, it is true, with sunny skies. But there will be a decent northerly breeze all day, gusting up to 20 mph. And as the Sun sinks toward the horizon this afternoon and evening, the temperatures will drop. It will be about 50 degrees at midnight tonight in Houston, but with the breeze it will feel cooler. Skies will be clear to ring in the new year. Lows by Wednesday morning will reach the mid-40s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas, and somewhat warmer conditions right along the coast.

New Year’s Day

Expect a fine, sunny day with highs in the low-60s. Some clouds will start to build on Wednesday night as winds turn more easterly. Lows will reach about 50 degrees.

Thursday

Skies will turn mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-60s. Some light rain, perhaps in the form of mist or light showers, will be possible on Thursday or Thursday night. But I don’t expect this to be impactful at all. Lows will again drop to around 50 degrees as a weak front moves in.

Friday and Saturday

This part of the weekend looks to be mostly sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-60s and lows in the 40s on Friday night, and a bit warmer on Saturday night. We have no weather concerns these days.

Sunday and Monday

Sunday will be warmer, and partly sunny with highs likely in the low- to mid-70s. At some point, perhaps on Sunday evening, Sunday night, or early Monday, a stronger cold front is likely to push into the area. This could also bring a decent chance of rain, although accumulations look fairly slight.

How cold will things get?

Next week still looks quite a bit colder in Houston, with low temperatures in the 30s beginning on Tuesday or Wednesday morning. Whether we see a freeze during the first half of next week in Houston, I’m not sure. It still looks like a secondary push of Arctic air will bring some colder nights by Friday or Saturday of next week. Much of the area probably will freeze at that point. But will it be a light freeze, or will temperatures drop into the 20s? We just cannot say. Also there continues to be a low-end chance for some wintry precipitation, including the possibility of some snow, next Thursday or Friday. But at this distance our confidence in a specific forecast is very, very low.

No post tomorrow

In celebration of New Year’s Day there will be no post on New Year’s Day. Fortunately, the weather for the rest of this week looks pretty calm.

In brief: This morning’s update discusses the tornado outbreak on Saturday, and looks ahead to milder weather this week. We also discuss the increasing potential for much colder weather beginning next Monday in the Houston region. But just how cold will it get?

Tornado recap

The National Weather Service has completed its preliminary analysis of six tornadoes in the greater Houston metro area on Saturday, December 28. These included an EF-3 tornado near Porter Heights and Splendora, which had a ground track about 10 miles long, and an EF-2 tornado in Brazoria County with a ground track of nearly 9 miles. This latter tornado killed one person and injured five people, and also did major damage to Walt Disney Elementary School in Alvin. Many teachers lost educational materials due to the tornado, and you can donate to support their efforts to recover here.

Houston experienced three days of violent weather in the last week, which is a rarity for this time of year. Fortunately conditions should settle down now. Our next big concern is the potential for a hard freeze about a week or 10 days from now, which I’ll discuss further below.

Monday

With air temperatures and dewpoints both in the upper 50s this morning, we are dealing with marine fog across parts of the metro area. This should dissipate later this morning as temperatures rise. It will be a warm day, with sunny skies and highs of around 80 degrees. Southwesterly winds will aid in the flow of warmer air into the area. Lows tonight will generally be in the 60s through the evening hours before a cold front (likely without precipitation) pushes down into the area after midnight.

Tuesday

We should awake to cooler conditions, in the 50s, on Tuesday morning. Highs will likely peak in the mid- to upper-60s for most areas with sunny skies and drier air. If you’re going to be out and about on New Year’s Eve, expect cool temperatures in the lower 50s, with a northwest breeze. Besides the cooler conditions, there should be no other concerns for New Year’s Eve. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the mid-40s.

New Year’s Day

We will start the new year cold and clear, with highs likely only reaching the lower 60s. Expect to see sunny skies.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The second half of the weekend will bring a gradual warmup into the area, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As atmospheric moisture levels rise we’ll see some low-end rain chances each day, but accumulations at this point do not look overly impressive. By Sunday or Sunday night the next cold front should push into the area, potentially setting the stage for a significantly colder period.

Potential for a hard freeze

Since Matt addressed the possibility of a hard freeze on Friday, we have continued to gather more data, and the story has changed somewhat. The bottom line is that we could see our first Arctic air of the season next week, although the details of just how cold things get are still fuzzy.

For Texas, it’s the usual story in winter. A significant slug of colder air is going to drop down into the eastern United States from Canada. This differs from the more zonal flow we have seen this winter to date, in which modified colder air comes down from the Pacific Northwest, rather than the really cold stuff directly down from northern Canada. The question for Texas is whether this Arctic air dives down into the state, or gets shunted off to the southeast. This time I think we’re going to get plenty of colder air next week, but we are unlikely to see the worst of it.

With all of that said, my sense is that an initial surge of colder air next Monday will drop area-wide lows into the 30s for much of the Houston region (the coast may be warmer, and the usual suspects for inland areas may see a light freeze). Then, with one or two additional pushes of colder air, temperatures are just going to get colder through the week. Since we’re talking about a period 10 days from now it’s impossible to say how cold, but at this point I don’t think we can rule out lows in the 20s by Friday or Saturday of next week. Whether that’s lower 20s or upper 20s, we just cannot say. If we get some precipitation there is a low-end chance of some snow or a wintry mix toward the end of next week, but the odds of this happening are probably on the order of 10 percent at this point.

Anyway, this is something we’ll be watching all week, and we’ll keep you informed as we go along.

In brief: The chances of severe weather today in Houston have increased a bit, although it still appears locations to north and east of the city will be at highest risk overall. Still, there will likely be showers and noisy thunderstorms around. A couple storms, primarily north of I-10 will be capable of producing hail, damaging wind, or an isolated tornado.

We’re on the every-other-day plan here in Houston right now. Storms on Tuesday, a mini-tornado outbreak on Thursday, and now the area will have another chance at thunderstorms and severe weather today. The forecast has indeed gotten a little more challenging here today, which I explain a bit more about below.

The Houston area is under a slight risk (level 2/5) and marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather today.

A couple things have happened today to cause these subtle but meaningful changes. We saw minimal showers and storms this morning. Now that the atmosphere is destabilizing a bit, we’ll see more development occur. And, as I speculate on “why” below, modeling generally just didn’t get it quite right based on what they show today. Never verify a forecast on a forecast though, so we’ll see what eventually happens here.

Anyway, a few showers are now beginning to pop up across the area, especially west of Katy and northeast of Baytown. Additionally, a line of thunderstorms is developing back west along I-35 that will become a focal point for general storms and isolated severe weather today.

Over the next 3 hours, expect showers to increase in coverage on the west and north sides of the Houston metro. Some of these showers and storms will also increase in intensity with severe risks going up, especially north of I-10 after about 11 AM or Noon.

Early to mid-afternoon should see peak coverage and intensity. If the area sees another tornado, it would probably happen in that timeframe, though the odds favor something like that happening north and east of Lake Livingston. But as we saw on Thursday, when odds of severe weather were also highest north and east, the most “photogenic” tornado actually occurred back in El Campo. So, while we are confident that the highest odds of bad weather are to the north and east, our odds here are certainly not zero. Have a way to receive weather alerts today if you’ll be out and about, just so you’re aware of anything changing.

Storms should begin to “line out” and exit the area west to east after 4 PM or so, with quiet weather expected tonight. Tomorrow still looks delightful, with sunshine and comfortable temperatures around 70 degrees.

Playing catch-up?

Worth noting: One commenter pointed out yesterday that it seems like each event has been generally forecast to happen but has tended to worsen as it got closer to happening. Today obviously fits that trend once more. As for why that is? I can’t really pinpoint it with certainty right now. However, I might speculate that an extremely warm western Gulf of Mexico might have something to do with this.

Warm water can help inject more moisture and instability into the atmosphere, and especially so when you’re dealing with temperatures that are as much as 3.5°C warmer than normal. Why would that impact the forecast; shouldn’t this be baked in? The answer is not necessarily. Sometimes models have trouble catching up to anomalies this significant. So it would not be shocking for there to be an element of underforecasting severe risk in this environment by some extent. But I am speculating a bit here. Whatever the case, the pattern mercifully changes after today, and we will see limited to no rain chances until late next week or weekend.

In brief: Gorgeous weather allows the Houston area to exhale today before one more chance of storms on Saturday. The highest risk of significant weather on Saturday is east of our area into Louisiana and Mississippi, but a few noisy storms could impact a couple areas Saturday morning or afternoon. We have a gorgeous Sunday, followed by notably cooler weather after Monday next week.

As of this morning, the National Weather Service has confirmed at least four tornadoes across Southeast Texas.

Two were in Liberty County, including one which damaged an RV park. A third was a waterspout that crossed from Lake Houston onto land for a short time. The fourth was the very well-documented tornado that occurred in El Campo to the southwest of Houston. A fifth possible tornado was reported near Sugar Land, and as surveys unfold today, we could see a couple more added to the board.

Overall, this was a pretty good forecast. A lot of our severe weather days here are on the margins; either the cap breaks and we get hit, or it holds and we get minimal action. Yesterday was an example of the rare case where it was pretty clear cut that we had a severe risk over the entire area but only a few spots would see the really bad stuff. Rain forecasting will always be more challenging to pin down, so from that point of view, your mileage may have varied this week. But overall, the last few days have not thrown us too many curves thankfully, even if it has felt a bit out of season.

Today

Take a breath today. Low clouds and fog may be with us for a bit longer south and east of Houston, but it will clear out and turn out to be a really nice day overall. Highs will be in the low-70s.

Saturday

The third in our parade of systems arrives Saturday. Each successive one has ended up firing up farther east than the previous system, and Saturday should be no different. This looks like a similar setup to yesterday shifted about 150 miles or so to the east. What does that mean for Houston? We are in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Rather than being hit directly by a bunch of storms, we are located where a lot of the storms will kick off. So look for isolated to scattered showers and storms to impact the area from early morning into mid-afternoon, with perhaps a slightly higher risk north and east of the area. However, the storm coverage should not be nearly like we’ve seen this week.

One potential exception to all this may be south and east of Houston, particularly on Saturday morning between 5 and 10 AM or so. As the initial surge of warmer air returns, it could come with some strong thunderstorms, and I would not be surprised to see one or two heavy, noisy storms in Galveston, Chambers, or Jefferson Counties on Saturday morning.

Otherwise, high temperatures will be mild, topping off in the mid to upper-70s, with morning lows near 60 degrees.

Sunday

We clear out again by Sunday morning, leaving us sunny and very, very pleasant with highs in the low-70s.

Next week

Monday starts off warm, with highs well into the 70s. It should remain sunny however. Our strongest cold front since before Christmas arrives on Monday night or Tuesday morning. This will knock us back into the 60s for highs and 40s for lows in Houston, perhaps a bit colder in outlying areas. This appears right now to be a dry cold front, so we do not expect much, if any rain beyond tomorrow.

Beyond next week

I guess there has been some speculation floating around about snow risk and freeze risk in Texas on the proverbial internet. The comments we have gotten from people have ranged from next week to the second week of January on the timing, which raises a red flag immediately. Look. It’s the time of year where, yes, we will be watching for cold risks in the long range that could be capable of producing a Texas freeze. We see nothing of that nature right now.

The Climate Prediction Center is also not outlining anything of note in their 8 to 14 day hazard outlook (which is where you’d expect to start to see warning signs of a freeze). So at this point, we aren’t too concerned about that.

As for wintry precip, we don’t see much risk of that in early January here in Houston. There are subtle hints on the GFS operational model, as well as in some AI model guidance that a very brief setup that historically has been favorable for wintry precip somewhere in Texas may occur midweek the week of January 6th. That’s a solid 10 days from now, so I would not be placing my life savings on that possibility. Also, Texas is big, so I couldn’t tell you if that’s an Amarillo risk, a Dallas risk, or an Oklahoma risk. But it gives us something, I guess, to watch after New Year’s.