Good morning. Although the coldest weather for Houston will actually come over the next two nights, much of the rest of Texas is experiencing the lowest temperatures of this Arctic outbreak right now. Because of this, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT is asking Texans to conserve power from 6 am to 10 am CT on Monday. Expect another call for conservation on Tuesday morning.

The agency has not said whether it will institute rolling blackouts if demand exceeds power reserves, but that certainly seems possible. You can track power grid status in real time, here. Please note that, at this time, there is no reason to believe that we will see extended blackouts like we experienced during the deep freeze in February 2021.

Now, let’s jump into the forecast.

Monday

We’re starting the new week in a chilly posture, with areas inland of Interstate 10 generally experiencing a freeze. For far inland areas, such as Brenham and College Station, temperatures are already well into hard freeze territory. In Houston’s urban core temperatures are holding at or just above freezing. Arctic air will continue surging into the region today, and temperatures are likely to hover at about freezing levels, or just above or below, for much of the day.

The big question, of course, is precipitation and the extent to which we see freezing rain. We expect to see a mix of very light precipitation and drizzle today in the Houston metro area, with accumulations on the order of a few hundredths of an inch. With temperatures hovering near freezing levels, some of this is bound to fall as freezing rain, leading to concerns about icing on bridges and overpasses. Overall, we don’t anticipate a major ice storm or anything like that in our region, but icy conditions are something to be cognizant of today if you’re out and about. You can check local roadway conditions at Houston Transtar, where icy conditions will be reported. Statewide conditions can be found at Drive Texas. As expected there are a flurry of ice issues well north of the Houston area, particularly around the Dallas area and East Texas. Travel to those locations is not recommended today.

Tonight will be quite cold, especially with a northerly winds of 15 to 20 mph (higher at the coast) piling on wind chill. Air temperatures will drop into the mid-20s in Houston, with colder conditions further inland (a hard freeze) and slightly warmer conditions near the coast. Even Galveston could experience a light freeze. Tuesday morning will feel very cold outside:

As for roads, I think the combination of dry air and windy conditions will remove any moisture and ice. So my best guess is that while conditions will be very cold tonight and into Tuesday, roads should be dry. That is dependent on how much precipitation we get today, of course. We’ll update these icy roads predictions later this afternoon.

Tuesday

After the cold start to the day, highs may reach the low- to mid-30s in Houston underneath sunny skies, but those persistent winds will keep a chill in the air. Areas well inland are likely to remain below freezing throughout the day. As winds die down on Tuesday night, we’ll see ideal conditions for cooling. Expect lows to bottom out from 20 to 25 degrees in the urban core of Houston, with colder temperatures inland.

Wednesday

After a very cold start, highs should warm to about 50 degrees on Wednesday with sunny skies. Lows on Wednesday night should remain comfortably in the 40s.

Thursday

A warmer day, with highs in the upper 60s and partly sunny skies. Another fairly robust front arrives on Thursday night-ish, returning colder conditions to the area.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We are going to experience highs in the upper 40s or lower 50s through the weekend, with mostly sunny skies. Lows may reach freezing on Saturday morning in Houston, but it should be a light freeze.

One of the challenges we face as forecasters during Arctic air events is that often times the models are too slow to push in the cold. This type of cold air is shallow and dense (go ahead and insert your jokes here). If you look at a vertical profile of temperatures from Dallas this morning, you can see just how shallow it is. The red line indicates temperature from the surface (bottom of the chart) to the top of the atmosphere. The temperature scale is tilted (skewed) on these atmospheric soundings (called Skew-T plots). But you can see that in Dallas, it was in the teens this morning at the surface. The line that corresponds to “850” on the left says that temperatures were about 34 or 35 degrees at that height, which is about 5,000 feet up. The line skews warmer about halfway there, so the coldest air is only about 2,500 to 3,000 feet deep.

Since the air mass is so shallow, it’s hard sometimes for modeling, particularly the global models we use 3 to 7 days in advance to pick up on how quickly that dense cold air is going to arrive. So based on our experience, we try to account for this by speeding up the arrival time of cold in our forecasts. Every now and then, however, you get a day like today. Temperatures dropped in Houston to about 37 degrees this morning. Meanwhile, as I write this at 3:45 PM, it’s 50 degrees outside. Weren’t we supposed to be cold today? Yes, we had the front stalling at the coast. Instead, it was as warm as 57 in Galveston, 53 at Hobby, 49 at Bush, but only 40 in Conroe and 29 in College Station.

So, the obvious question most of you have is: Does this mean we aren’t getting as cold? No, it does not mean that at all. In fact, very little has changed, forecast-wise today. Once the sun sets, the cold air will resume its southward push, and by tomorrow morning, you can expect temperatures in the 30s in and around Houston and 20s north.

The problem tomorrow is that temperatures will go nowhere. We will stay in the low 30s with some light showers around, and yes that continues to suggest that light icing will be possible. That could begin as early as overnight north and west of Houston, continuing or expanding south and east during the day tomorrow. So, for the Monday holiday, watch for patchy ice north and west in the morning, across the entire area away from the coast during the afternoon and evening. This will not be a widespread major ice storm by any means, but bridges and overpasses will likely have patchy ice across the area tomorrow and tomorrow night, so please exercise extreme caution on the freeways.

I do not want to speculate much at all on Tuesday morning’s commute and school issues right now. That’s above our pay grade, and I would just sort of plan at this point on Tuesday going normally for most folks but have a backup plan in case it does not.

Forecast temperatures are virtually unchanged tonight, tomorrow, and Tuesday into Tuesday night across the area. So we aren’t looking any worse which is good, and this continues to look like a very cold but very manageable event. And if you want warmer thoughts, look no further than the National Blend of Models forecast over the next 10 days. Yes, another freeze is possible this coming weekend, but by all accounts it looks less significant than this first one. But several days in the 60s appear to be in our future. So take solace if you’re too cold.

We’ll have another update for you in the morning!

Good afternoon. Just a short-ish update this afternoon because, you know, meteorologists want to watch the Texans playoff game as well. Not a whole lot has changed from the forecast we published this morning. So for this post we’re going to summarize the forecast and impacts, and attempt to answer some questions readers have. Be forewarned: We don’t have absolute answers.

Forecast

An Arctic front will push into Houston overnight, likely moving through the downtown area before sunrise, and reaching the coast by sunrise or a little bit afterward. This will not be a ‘blue norther’ front in that while the winds will shift to come from the north, they are not likely to be howling. Temperatures will remain above freezing on Sunday, and should remain at or above freezing for the majority of the metro area Sunday night with the usual exceptions, places like Montgomery and Conroe.

Monday is going to be a cold day. Most of the region will be in the 30s, with mostly cloudy skies. A passing disturbance will bring light, scattered rain showers into the area beginning late Sunday night or early Monday morning. Most of our model guidance still indicates this precipitation will fall as rain in Houston, with a transition to freezing rain northwest of the metro area, perhaps roughly along Highway 105. Bottom line: It’s going to be miserable outside in Houston on Monday, but you should be able to get out and about. We’re continuing to watch the freezing line closely, of course.

A secondary push of cold, Arctic air will arrive on Monday and that will nudge nighttime temperatures lower on Monday night. But there’s still a pretty broad range of uncertainty on how far the mercury drops on Monday night, depending on cloud cover and other factors. Our advice: prepare for a hard freeze in Houston, but don’t be surprised if temperatures are a little warmer. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning continues to look like the coldest night of the forecast period, when much of the metro area will drop into the upper teens to mid-20s. I don’t feel confident putting a finer point on those temperatures yet. We emerge from the icebox on Wednesday.

Now, let’s try to tackle some questions.

Is the power going to go out?

We’re weather forecasters, not power prognosticators, and so we have limited insight. Statewide temperatures do look 5 to 10 degrees warmer than the exceptional cold that led to widespread power outages in February 2021, and the state has invested in “winterizing” the grid in the three years since that disaster. All of that makes us feel pretty good about the state avoiding prolonged outages.

So far state officials have not called for conservation next week. But it seems like that may be possible, especially on Monday and Tuesday mornings, when the demand forecast from ERCOT is near to the expected supply. In any case, we’ll all see what happens together.

Are there going to be Airport delays?

If we get freezing rain at Bush Intercontinental Airport (or Hobby, for that matter) then yes, there could be some significant flight delays on Monday. But that does not seem likely at this time. For the most part this is going to be the story of cold weather rather than a winter storm. The optimist in me thinks that while there may be some airport delays on Monday and Tuesday, they probably will be due to the destination airports rather than conditions at Houston terminals. The pessimist in me is saying, “Uhh, dude, you’re out of your depth here.” Which is true.

Is school going to be canceled?

Monday is a holiday, to mark Martin Luther King Jr. Day. If our forecast is wrong, and we get more rain than expected on Monday, and conditions are a little colder, than we could see some icy bridges and overpasses on Monday night into Tuesday morning in Houston. That would be a reason to cancel schools in the Houston metro area on Tuesday. But right now we don’t anticipate that happening.

We should have even more confidence in the forecast by tomorrow. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are going to be blustery and cold, with wind chills in the 20s or teens. Is concern about exposure getting to and from school a reason to cancel it? That’s not my call. But at present our expectation is that roads will remain passable during this winter event.

Should I drive to Dallas or Austin on Monday?

These are going to be difficult calls. Right now there’s a chance of light, freezing rain on Interstate 10 and Highway 290 on Sunday night and Monday. Will there be enough to stick on highways? Maybe a few bridges and overpasses. But I don’t feel great about making that call on driving to Austin right now.

As for Dallas, or places like Shreveport, I’m a little more confident that we’re going to see some decent freezing rain or sleet accumulations that could make travel hazardous. So if you’re heading north of The Woodlands on I-45, or north of Cleveland on Highway 59 on Sunday afternoon or Monday, I’d definitely check road conditions before leaving.

Is it going to snow?

Yes. But not in Houston. For any appreciable totals, you’re probably going to have to travel to Oklahoma or Arkansas on Sunday or Monday. Which, as noted above, is not advisable.