Good morning. Low temperatures have dipped into the upper 30s for much of Houston outside the urban core, and away from the coast. With chilly conditions expected for the remainder of November, it looks like this month will be the first one since May to record a below normal temperature.

The average temperature so far this month—calculated by adding the daily high and low, and dividing by two—is presently a little less than 63 degrees. That will slip a bit this week. It seems notable that while Houston recorded an exceptionally hot summer this year, the spring and fall have been rather temperate.

We’re also in the final days of our annual fundraiser. The response so far this year has been tremendous—thank you so much. There’s still time to buy merchandise or donate if you would care to.

Monday

Our overall pattern this week is fairly straightforward. We face three chilly days and nights before transitioning to a warmer pattern with higher rain chances beginning Thursday. This morning is likely to be the coldest of the week, with lows in the upper 30s. With partly cloudy skies, temperatures will be slow to warm, but we should eventually get into the upper 50s today, with light northerly winds. Low temperatures on Monday night should be a degree or two warmer than Sunday night.

Tuesday

This is the one day this week when we’re pretty much guaranteed sunshine, so be sure and soak it up. The combination of sunny skies and a more easterly flow should allow highs to reach the low 60s. Tuesday night will, in turn, be a degree or two warmer than Monday night, with lows likely dropping into the low 40s for much of the metro area.

Wednesday

With winds becoming more southeasterly, we’ll see a more humid flow beginning later on Wednesday, but it will take some time for the air mass to modify. As a result, I expect partly sunny skies on Wednesday, with highs in the mid- to upper-60s. As the Gulf of Mexico air moves in, we should see more clouds on Wednesday night, with lows dropping only to around 60 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

A low-pressure system will driver higher rain chances toward the end of the week, with Thursday likely to be the wettest day. Much of the area could see 1 to 2 inches of accumulating rain on Thursday. This should not be enough to cause flooding, but it should make for a fairly dreary day. Highs will be about 70 degrees. Rain chances continue Thursday night, and still should be 30 to 50 percent on Friday. This will be another warm day with a decent amount of humidity, with highs around 70 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for this weekend is somewhat uncertain as a cold front advances toward Houston on Friday, and then probably moves just off the coast. Our temperatures and rain chances are going to be dependent on the position of this front, and I’m just not entirely confident how far it pushes offshore. So for the time being, I’m going to predict high temperatures in the upper 60s this weekend, with lows somewhere in the 50s. Rain chances will be pretty decent for coastal areas, but likely less for inland areas. All of that is subject to change, of course.

Next week

Given the uncertainty over the weekend, I don’t feel strongly about next week’s outlook either. I do think we’ll probably see some clearing skies by Tuesday or so, and some slightly cooler weather thereafter. But we shall see!

Happy Friday to all! Hope yesterday was a good one for you. As a cool weather climate native, yesterday’s somewhat dreary weather was nice in my mind for Thanksgiving. But the sun is making a return appearance today, and that should yield a pretty nice day!

Fundraiser

We are in the final days of our annual fundraiser for the site. Thank you to those who have contributed thus far. If you are doing some Black Friday shopping from the comfort of your home or phone, please consider buying some merch or donating. We are greatly appreciative!

Today

The increasing sunshine today should allow temperatures to poke back up into the mid-60s across much of the area. It should be a delightful autumn day.

Weekend

Look for clouds to increase tomorrow, and there could be a shower or two south and west of Houston. A couple disturbances and some low-level moisture coming in off the Gulf will make for a decent cloud combo by later in the day on Saturday. We should still manage the 60s tomorrow after a morning in the 40s or 50s.

The best rain chance will actually come tomorrow night into early Sunday morning. The hope is that meaningful rain will clear in time for Texans tailgating, but it will be a bit of a close call. The heaviest rain will probably fall at the coast with this system. That said, we aren’t expecting more than a quarter-inch to half-inch of rain even there.

The rest of Sunday looks like a mostly cloudy, somewhat clammy day with highs in the low to mid-60s. Some lingering light rain or drizzle should end Sunday afternoon as a cold front sweeps in. Those of you attending or tailgating for the Dynamo playoff match Sunday evening should be fine. You’ll definitely need a jacket though with temps dropping into the 50s.

Next week

Break out the jackets for Monday. Back to work and school for many folks, and you’ll want to be ready with morning lows in the low-40s in Houston proper and 30s in the outlying areas.

We won’t get out of the 50s on Monday, followed up by an even colder start Tuesday. Morning lows will be in the 30s with some risk of a light freeze in far northern areas.

We’ll warm up steadily through the week back into the 60s on Tuesday and perhaps 70s by Friday or Saturday. Our next cold front is timed to sometime after next weekend. It does look like that will open up a more unsettled and potentially stormier weather pattern for us in the early days of December. We’ll have more on that next week.

On this day before Thanksgiving—since weather conditions will be fairly quiet in the days ahead, we’re going to take tomorrow off—I wanted to share just a few things that I am thankful for. I am thankful for my close-knit family; for rainfall at the end of a drought; for the teachers who have been so patient and wonderful in educating my kids in Clear Creek ISD; for cold fronts and for the heat coming on this morning; for Matt Lanza; for Reliant for sponsoring us faithfully since 2017 and on into the future; and finally for you dear readers, for giving Matt and myself your trust over the years. We don’t always get forecasts correct, but we do do our very best to do so every day.

Speaking of which, let’s talk about chilly nights, Thanksgiving weather, and if Houston will see our way out of the 60s before early December. (Spoiler: Probably not).

Wednesday

We’re starting out this morning in the 40s, although a few far inland areas such as Conroe and Navasota have dropped into the upper 30s. Skies are mostly clear this morning, we’ll probably see a few clouds later this afternoon. Highs will push up to about 60 degrees. This will feel warmer than Tuesday because there won’t be any blustery winds. Rather, look only for 5 to 10 mph winds from the northwest. Lighter winds and partly cloudy skies should allow for lows to drop down a degree or two cooler than Tuesday night, so most of the region should again be in the 40s tonight.

Thanksgiving Day

A combination of a cold start and mostly cloudy skies will yield a cold day for the holiday. Highs probably will top out in the upper 50s, with a light easterly breeze. So it will be chilly and gray. What about rain? The aforementioned clouds will be produced by a low pressure system. If there were more moisture in the atmosphere we would probably see fairly widespread showers. But things are pretty dry overall, so I’d say there’s only about a 20 percent chance of light rain from the late-morning to mid-afternoon hours. Something to be mindful of, but not overly concerned about. Lows on Thanksgiving night will drop into the mid- to upper-40s overnight.

Friday

This should be a mostly sunny, fine day with highs in the mid- to upper-60s.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday should be similar to Friday, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid- to upper-60s. Clouds will increase later in the day, and rain chances will increase by around midnight ahead of a cold front that should push into the region some time on Sunday morning. Overall accumulations look modest, perhaps on the order of a quarter of an inch for most. Sunday itself looks cloudy, with highs in the 60s.

Next week

Most of next week looks chilly, with highs of around 60 degrees give or take, and lows in the 40s. By Thursday or Friday we may see a warming trend. It’s possible that we could rise back into the 70s by next weekend, but it’s no sure thing. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving, everyone.

Fundraiser

Just a quick word here to remind you of our annual fundraiser. We’ve only got about one week left, so please consider buying some merch or donating. Thank you!

Good morning. Temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees cooler outside this morning than on Monday, and this is only the beginning of a cool down that will more or less persist for the rest of November, at least. The Houston region is not going to see freezing weather any time soon, but highs are unlikely to surpass the 60s and low temperatures should be consistently in the 40s and 50s. So this is chilly for November, and pretty much characteristic of average conditions during winter months. If you’ve been waiting for consistent sweater weather, you’ve made it.

Tuesday

The story of today, beyond the cooler weather, will be the wind. Winds out of the north will blow consistently at 15 to 20 mph, with gusts up to about 30 mph in the wake of the front’s passage. Temperatures will peak at about 60 degrees, with mostly cloudy skies. The wind will back off a bit this evening, with temperatures dropping into the mid-40s overnight.

Wednesday

We’ll see some sunshine on Wednesday, particularly during the morning hours. That will help temperatures recover into the upper 50s, at least, for most of the area. Winds will be less, too, perhaps at 10 mph from the north. Lows on Wednesday night will likely be the chilliest of the week, dropping into the low 40s.

Thanksgiving Day

After a cold start, we’ll see some warming on the holiday, perhaps into the upper 50s. However, mostly cloudy skies will inhibit warming beyond that. Winds will be light. The atmosphere is going to be a bit disturbed with an upper-level low pressure system, but I don’t think we’re going to see any onshore showers as atmospheric moisture levels remain fairly low. However, know that there is a slight possibility of some light rain on Thanksgiving. Overnight lows will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Friday

Mostly sunny skies should return for Friday, which will allow highs to push into the 60s. Lows on Friday night will be a bit warmer, perhaps in the low 50s.

The weekend and beyond

Saturday will feel warmer as the onshore flow resumes, bringing more moisture into our atmosphere and increasing cloud cover. Look for highs generally in the mid-60s to upper-60s. I expect Saturday to remain rain free, but some light showers will be possible by Saturday night, although they likely will not start until after midnight.

Sunday will be in the 60s as well, with the potential for scattered showers ahead of the next front. I’d say there’s about a 40 percent chance of rain on Sunday and Sunday evening, although accumulations will be light, perhaps on the order of perhaps one or two tenths of an inch. Said front should arrive on Sunday evening or a bit later, and will bring significantly drier air into the region, ending rain chances.

The forecast is still a bit hazy, but generally we should see highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s and 50s next week, with partly sunny skies. Keep those sweaters handy.

Fundraiser

We’re still in the midst of our annual fundraiser! Thank you to everyone who has supported us so far, and you still have the opportunity to buy merchandise or make a donation at our online store.