In brief: Houston gets to bathe in near-80° weather today before a cold front tonight sends us back to autumn and early winter with the coldest air of the season so far arriving. A light freeze is possible north and west of the city on Tuesday night and Wednesday night before we bring back rain chances and warm up this weekend.

Today

After a dreary weekend, especially Sunday, we will start the week on a bit of a nicer note. Look for some sunshine today mixed up with cloud cover. Let’s call it “decreasing clouds.” We don’t expect any rain, but what we do expect is warmth. Warm air getting pumped in from the southwest will allow our high temperature today to flirt with 80 degrees! This will be a few degrees shy of the 85° record from 2021. Still, for the warm weather lovers, enjoy. It changes again tomorrow.

Tuesday through Thursday

A cold front is going to push through the region tonight, ushering in a much colder air mass for Tuesday. Despite sunshine, morning lows in the 40s and 50s will be sluggish to warm up on increasing northwest winds Tuesday afternoon. We’ll manage 60 or the low-60s at best. Then, the coldest mornings of the season so far will follow on Wednesday and Thursday. We should see lows in the 30s in the city, near freezing in some of the northern and western suburbs, and at or below freezing just north and west of there.

Wind gusts on Tuesday evening will be 25 to 35 mph, strongest at the coast. We should see sunshine and highs in the 50s or around 60 degrees on Wednesday. Thursday will probably see increasing clouds with morning lows similar to Wednesday morning and afternoon highs in the low to mid-60s.

Friday and the weekend

Warmer temps will try to work back into the region Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, with highs approaching the 70s again. Morning lows will step up into the 40s and then 50s, if not low-60s this weekend as well. Unfortunately, it’s looking a bit dreary again. Despite the off and on rain this weekend, almost all the area saw merely a quarter to half-inch of rain. So it was not a lot. This coming weekend could see even a bit less than that. So for now, let’s open the bidding at a quarter-inch or so on average this weekend, especially given how recent rains seem to have underperformed. We’ll fine tune things as we get closer.

Our next meaningful cold front looks to arrive sometime midweek or late week next week. We are still a couple of days away from having a solid indication on Christmas weather, so let’s wildly speculate instead. With colder weather late next week, we could see a warming trend leading into the holiday but exactly how warm is TBD. More to come.

In brief: Will Houston manage another freeze this winter? We discuss what’s been in the news. Rain totals this weekend seem to have backed down some but there will still be some serious temperature and humidity changes into Monday before the coldest air of winter so far arrives next week. A light freeze is possible by Thursday morning outside the city.

Will Houston see a serious freeze this winter?

In the news lately has been ERCOT’s reported prediction of a “greater than average” chance of an extreme cold event this winter. Full disclosure: I know Chris Coleman personally, and he’s a solid forecaster and a good guy. ERCOT uses the fact that 5 of the last 8 winters have seen an extreme cold snap in Texas, as well as the fact that the majority of our extreme cold events since 1950 have occurred in La Niña winters. Interestingly, many of those cold snaps have occurred in otherwise mild winters, including 2016-17, our warmest Texas winter on record! So are these events indeed happening more frequent, or is this perhaps the law of averages catching up with us?

Going back to the 1800s, Houston has officially hit 21° or colder a total of 124 times. As noted, we’ve done it in 2024, 2022, 2021, 2018, and 2017. So it’s been a busy stretch, in addition to a few other instances in 2014, 2011, and 2010. But prior to 2010, we had last done this in 1996. So we went 14 years without hitting it once before racking up a bunch. The only real comparable stretch to that gap was 1918 to 1928, when we got shut out of sub-21° nights. You’ll notice from the data above that while the quantity of years seeing extreme cold seems to have revved up some in recent years, the duration of these cold spells seems to have shortened. And you see fewer winters with multiple extreme cold spells. Some of that is urban heat island effects due to Houston’s enormous growth. Some of that is the warming Gulf of Mexico in our backyard and/or climate change. But mostly, it’s actually kind of typical to have this type of cold in Houston every few winters. Yes, it’s been busy in recent years. But I think that’s more a consequence of having experienced few major cold snaps between 1996 and 2018 more than anything.

So what are we saying? It probably makes sense to prepare every winter for a pop of extreme cold. It may only last a few days, but it can obviously cause problems. And to the original point about this winter: Given the La Niña in place, there should be an ample reservoir of cold built up in Canada by later January and February. It’s a weak La Niña to be sure, but it should still allow for more Canadian cold than in a typical winter. If the wrong setup comes along to dislodge that into the Plains, that’s when we could experience a pop of extreme cold this winter. Putting all this together, it’s not at all illogical to state we have a greater than normal chance of experiencing a brief extreme cold outbreak this winter. Coleman also mentioned in his ERCOT presentation that for cold weather, “This is like a tornado watch. Doesn’t mean a tornado is going to happen. It means conditions are there.” And I think that’s the key takeaway from all this. And it’s also something Eric noted in our commentary on winter back in early November.

On to the weather, of which there is a good bit to discuss this weekend.

Today

We should close the week out on a cool but benign note. There are some clouds pushing northward across Matagorda Bay, toward Wharton and west out toward perhaps Columbus or Sealy. But aside from that, sun and some clouds rule the day. A chilly morning in the 40s should warm deep into the 50s this afternoon. I would not entirely rule out a passing shower before the end of today, primarily between Matagorda Bay and Columbus or perhaps up toward College Station. Nothing big, just don’t be shocked if you feel some raindrops.

Saturday

Tomorrow will be our transition into a temporary warm pattern, priming us for a wet Sunday. Look for clouds and kind of damp, raw weather on Saturday as humidity levels increase. We’ll manage the mid-50s or a bit milder for highs but between a few showers, the cloud cover, and that rising humidity, “clammy” may be an appropriate descriptor. Look for some low clouds or drizzle in spots in addition to passing showers here or there.

Sunday

More numerous showers seem likely on Sunday across most of the region. The area is in a marginal risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. At this point we think that the only flooding would be typical ponding issues on area roadways (ex: frontage roads) or in small areas that see brief street flooding due to downpours. Modeling seems to have backed down on the amount of rainfall to expect and rain totals have generally been cut as a result.

The best ingredients to sustain rainfall will be to our east, so places like Beaumont or Lake Charles will be more apt to see more rain it seems. Temps will surge on Sunday though as warm air floods in off the Gulf, along with breezy conditions. Look for highs well into the 60s.

Next week

There will be a disconnect between this weekend system and the incoming cold front, so Monday falls firmly in the warm category. We’ll manage highs into the 70s with a good bit of humidity. The cold front hits Monday night, which as of now looks fairly dry. It appears a secondary front arrives Tuesday afternoon. The combination of the two will allow for Tuesday’s temperatures to drop into 60s for highs and allow for the coldest air of the season Wednesday night.

Some places will approach freezing Wednesday night and Thursday morning, primarily north of Houston and outside the city. Daytime highs on both Wednesday and Thursday will limp into the upper-50s or low-60s at best. A somewhat more sustained warm up may follow next weekend and into the week of the 16th. More to come.

In brief: Houston has a dynamic forecast over the next several days with a cold snap, followed by a weekend warm-up. Rain chances return on Saturday, with the period of Saturday night and Sunday looking especially wet. Then we’ll see a mild Monday followed by another sharp cold snap. Buckle up!

Thursday

A cold front pushed offshore on Wednesday night, and we’re now seeing an influx of drier and cooler air. Temperatures are around 60 degrees in much of the Houston region this morning, and that’s where we’ll likely top out during what will be a mostly cloudy, and cool day. Some very light, misty showers will be possible for the next couple of hours, but after that we should be rain free for 24 to 36 hours. Winds will be breezy, from the northeast. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the low 40s for most of the area.

Friday

This will be a fine, winter-like day. Expect highs in the mid-50s, with partly sunny skies. Yes, we should clear out for several hours during the daytime with moderate northeasterly winds. Friday night will be a bit warmer, but still should see temperatures drop into the 40s in Houston. Some rain chances return to the area after midnight.

Saturday

Skies will be mostly cloudy on Saturday, with highs around 60 degrees. The cold front that moved offshore on Thursday will pull back, and come ashore as a warm front. This will help drive increasing rain chances. During the day time I expect to see at least some scattered showers, with increasing chances Saturday evening and especially during the overnight hours. Although we are still about a day away from having high resolution modeling for this time period, it does appear as though there is a risk of rain to mar any holiday activities during the daytime and early evening on Saturday.

Sunday

At this point it appears the best chance for sustained and modestly heavy rainfall will probably come between midnight on Saturday and noon on Sunday. I don’t expect any real serious flooding issues, but most of the area should see on the order of 2 inches of rainfall from Saturday through Sunday night, with higher totals certainly possible. Rain chances continue into Sunday night. The bottom line is that it’s going to be a wet weekend, especially beginning some time Saturday evening or night into Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be about 70 degrees as dewpoints rise.

Monday

Skies should clear out on Monday to give us our warmest day of the forecast period. Expect highs in the mid- to upper-70s.

Rest of next week

After Monday’s warmth a fairly strong cold front will push into the area, bringing mostly sunny and colder weather. Houston could drop into the 30s, even, for a few nights next week with some of the far inland areas seeing a light freeze. Highs for a couple of day may only reach the 50s. All of that is to be determined, but much of next week does look quite a bit cooler.

In brief: Our overall pattern is definitely changing, with rainfall likely today and tonight, and then again this weekend. Although precipitation will be plentiful, sunshine will be scarce until at least Monday. Our temperatures will go up and down, with Friday looking especially chilly even during the daytime.

Wednesday

Warmer and more humid air is spreading inland from the Gulf of Mexico this morning as a southerly flow takes hold, and this will set the stage for healthy rainfall today and into tonight. It appears that the most organized set of storms will move in from the southwest later this morning, pushing into the central Houston area around noon before lifting off to the east-northeast.

What to expect? Mostly this should be light to moderate rainfall. However there is a slight, and I do mean slight chance of something stronger such as gusty winds and thunderstorms. It’s possible that areas north of Interstate 10 may even see a tornado warning, but that is much more unlikely than likely to happen. Anyway, most of the greater Houston region should see some rain, with general totals on the order of 0.25 to 1 inch. However there will likely be some part of town, maybe in the Sugar Land or Pearland areas, that probably hits a bullseye of 2 inches or more. Chances for lighter rain continue this evening and into the overnight hours.

Highs today will reach the lower 70s, with fairly sticky dewpoints. Temperatures tonight will drop into the 60s, with drier air starting to arrive after midnight.

Thursday

As a cool front pushes the warmer air back offshore, look for a cool and cloudy day Thursday, with daytime temperatures likely in the vicinity of 60 degrees. Rain chances should be low to non-existent during the daytime hours and overnight. Lows on Thursday night are chilly, dropping into the low- to mid-40s for much of Houston.

Friday

A colder day still, with highs likely topping out in the 50s, beneath gray skies. Lows will again drop into the 40s on Friday night with some light rain possible late.

Saturday and Sunday

If you have outdoor plans for this weekend, I would describe the forecast as challenging. Saturday looks to be another cool and gray day, with highs in 50s to lower 60s. The likelihood of rain, probably light, is about 50 percent during the daytime hours. By Saturday evening and overnight we will probably start to feel the influence of a coastal low pressure system, and this will increase rain chances on Saturday night through much of Sunday. Highs on Sunday will probably be in the low 70s, with muggy air. The bottom line is that any outdoor activities on Saturday evening through Sunday night will face the distinct possibility of rain. Most of the area should see 2 to 4 inches of rain through Monday morning.

Next week

Skies look to clear out some on Monday, giving us our warmest day of the forecast period as highs push well into the 70s. After that another front appears likely, driving lows down at least into the 40s by Tuesday or Wednesday. We’ll have to see.