Yesterday, Eric touched on the mostly dry forecast for the next week or so. You may be starting to ask yourself if we are heading back into drought. The answer is that we aren’t yet, but a few more weeks like this and we may be starting to discuss it more.

The Houston area right now is fine in terms of official drought. I imagine some farmers are beginning to feel it though across the region. In terms of Texas, about 58 percent of the state is in drought, substantially less than a year ago, so that’s great. But as temperatures begin to heat up and the days get longer, this becomes a little less likely to continue unless we see some meaningful rain. The good news is that parts of North Texas may get a bit of rain, but for the rest of us, it looks less positive. With a mostly dry forecast over the next week and the Climate Prediction Center calling for a dry-ish 8 to 14 day period, expect drought to start entering the vernacular a bit more.

Meanwhile, it hit 83° yesterday, our third consecutive 80 degree day. In February, we’ve done 5 straight days before, in 1986 and 1996. We aren’t expected to hit 80 today, so we will probably end it at three. Just a gentle reminder: These early 80s mean absolutely nothing at all about our later spring or summer. Nothing. So, you may love this or hate this early spring warmth, but it doesn’t mean April or August will go one way or the other.

Today and Saturday

In terms of actual weather, the forecast for today and tomorrow is relatively simple: Clouds, sun, and coastal fog. A passing shower or some light rain, drizzle, or mist is possible as well. We won’t see anything more significant than that.

In terms of temperature and humidity? Yeah, that’s another story. Depending on where you live or where you commute, you may experience both late spring and early spring today. As of 6 AM, the cold front was located basically from Sugar Land through Spring to Lake Livingston.

Why does this matter? From a temperature perspective, yes it’s cooler on the other side of the front, but it’s not exactly “cold.” I would expect mostly 60s to low-70s behind the front, while areas ahead of the front do mid to upper-70s today. More importantly, the humidity is sharply lower behind the front. Literally, right now it’s very, very humid at Bush Airport, yet just a little humid in Spring and bordering on comfortable in Conroe. So with this front literally parked over the metro area today, exactly where it’s parked will make the difference between a very warm and humid February day or a mild but somewhat comfortable one. It just so happens that millions of people live around that boundary, so your mileage is going to vary a lot today.

It’s unlikely that this front would get too far south and east today, so most areas south and east of Houston should stay warm and humid with areas of fog or low clouds.

This story continues Saturday. The front is going to move back to the north and west, but exactly how fast and from exactly what start point in the Houston metro area is difficult to say. In general, look for more warm and humid weather to gradually work north and west tomorrow, while coastal areas remain stuck in low clouds and fog. We’ll call it mid-70s for most, but a few places south and east could test 80°, while some places north and west may stay in the 60s to low-70s.

Sunday

By Sunday, the front should finally be making steady progress north. Weather-wise, it will be more of the same: Clouds, sun, and coastal fog. But! Winds on Sunday look a little stronger than Friday or Saturday, so I would hope that we could see the fog get lifted a bit on the coast. Look for a south wind of 10 to 15 mph, or a bit stronger at times over the water. Overall, Sunday should be a mostly cloudy, breezy, and warm day with 80s possible in many spots again.

Monday

Our next real definitive cold front is still scheduled for Monday. There could be an overnight or early morning burst of 20 to 30 mph south winds near the coast ahead of the front Monday, but things will calm down in the morning rather quickly. The front should clear the region by mid-morning Monday with only a handful of showers as it moves through. The rest of the day will actually look gorgeous. Expect sunshine, much lower humidity, and highs in the 70s.

Tuesday & Wednesday

We get our usual bout of cool weather behind the front on Tuesday morning, with lows mostly in the 50s.

A few 40s may be possible in outlying areas. Tuesday itself looks great with sunshine and highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Low, comfortable humidity will continue — a great opening night for the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo!

Onshore return flow means the humidity comes roaring back on Wednesday. Expect more clouds as well. We’ll test the 80s, and it will feel much less comfortable.

Later next week

Our next front is penciled in for Friday morning. This one should bring some rain and wind (especially offshore) with it, but whether it’s noteworthy or just something you’ll notice remains to be seen. We’ll watch it through the weekend. I’d expect Thursday to be cloudy, warm, and breezy. Friday should be changeable with a chance of early AM storms and gusty winds followed by clearing, much cooler, and drier weather. If all goes well, next weekend will be an absolute winner. Fingers crossed.

Pollen

It’s that time of year, allergy sufferers. This weather is not helping. But the trees are producing heavy pollen this week, and it will only get worse before it gets better. We’re not even close to peak yet, so start prepping now. You can track pollen levels during weekdays via the City of Houston.

There will, frankly, be little change in Houston’s weather during the days ahead until a weak front arrives Sunday night. And even that will provide only a relatively short-lived reprieve from the more humid air we’ve been experiencing. So if you enjoy mild weather, you’re in luck. The other thing to note that there is not significant rainfall in the forecast for at least the next 10 days. This bodes well for the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, along with the pre-rodeo festivities.

Thursday

With lighter winds, foggy conditions have returned this morning as temperatures and dewpoints are both about 70 degrees. This fog will dissipate this morning as temperatures climb. We should reach about 80 degrees beneath mostly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Low temperatures tonight will struggle to drop below 70 degrees.

Friday

A weak front will approach Houston on Thursday night, and stall somewhere to the west and north of the region. Areas inland of this boundary—approximated in the dewpoint map above—will see about 12 hours of moderately drier and cooler air. For most of the rest of us, Friday will be a lot of like Thursday, with cloudy skies, highs around 80 degrees, and lows of around 70 degrees.

Saturday

With high pressure holding sway, the weekend will be moderately warm and humid. For Saturday, we’re looking at partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low 80s. Lows Saturday night will fall to around 70 degrees in Houston. Rain chances are near zero.

Sunday

We may see a bit more sunshine on Sunday, with highs again around 80 degrees. By Sunday night rain chances should rise to 30 or 40 percent as a front approaches, and pushes into the region on Monday morning. As a result overnight lows should drop into the low 60s for most of Houston. Any rain accumulations will be slight, on the order of hundredths of an inch, probably.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday should be moderately cooler, perhaps with highs in the upper 70s and drier air. Lows on both nights should drop into the 50s before a warmer pattern returns for the rest of the work week. Overall rain chances appear low through this period. By next weekend, however, the models are suggesting we’ll see several days of cooler and drier weather. Not too cold mind you, but perhaps nighttime temperatures down to around 50 degrees. We’ll see.

The story of the day for our region will be winds, as the Texas coast is caught between a fairly strong high pressure system anchored over Cuba and Southern Florida, and a developing low pressure system over the Western United States. Gusts this morning could reach up to 40 mph as winds blow out of the southwest. This warm flow will yield daytime temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s across the area, which almost certainly will break the day’s record high of 81 degrees, set in 2017.

Wednesday

As noted above, winds will peak this morning, out of the southwest, with gusts up to 40 mph. Partially clearing skies this afternoon should provide a boost to temperatures, with much of the area reaching the mid-80s, and some areas warmer than that. There is a slight chance of rain today, primarily for areas north of Interstate 10. Any showers would be fleeting, however. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 60s.

Thursday

As winds die down early on Thursday, some areas of dense fog are possible. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies, which should help to limit high temperatures to the low 80s. Thursday night will be another warm one. A front will be approaching our region from the northwest on Thursday, but at this point I think it will stop short of substantially impacting the Houston metro area.

Friday

Stop me if I sound like a broken record, but we can again expect highs in the low 80s with mostly cloudy skies. And another warm night. Rain chances remain near zero through the end of the work week.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring more of the same, with muggy air, and partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the low 80s. Rain chances won’t be zero, but they’re probably on the order of 10 percent each day, with any accumulations being slight.

Next week

Some sort of weak front should move into our region next week as high pressure finally eases off. While this is likely to bring a modicum of cooler air, the bigger change should hopefully come in the form of a drier air mass. We may have to wait until next weekend before a chance of lows falling into the 40s returns to Houston. Rain chances, overall, continue to appear low for the foreseeable future.

Houston’s abnormally toasty weather will continue for the next week, with a fairly stout ridge of high pressure helping to drive a warm southerly flow across the region. The only major forecast questions are: How warm will it get? And, how windy will Wednesday be?

Tuesday

There is a little bit more wind this morning, and this is helping to dissipate sea fog as it develops. Southwest winds will continue to build today, reaching gusts up to 20 or 25 mph. Skies will be partly sunny, and this will help high temperatures rise into the low- to mid-80s. Rain chances are near zero. Low temperatures on Tuesday night will struggle to fall below 70 degrees, and that southerly breeze may strengthen some as an upper-level low pressure system drops into North Texas.

Wednesday

Due to the tight pressure gradient, we’ll see strong winds on Wednesday, gusting to perhaps 40 mph. These will occur beneath partly sunny skies, allowing high temperatures to reach the mid-80s, with some far inland areas possibly reaching the upper-80s. It’s going to feel pretty warm, y’all. Rain chances will be on the order of 10 to 20 percent.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of warm, mostly cloudy days with high temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Winds, at least, will have slackened by Thursday morning.

Saturday and Sunday

More of the same is on the way for the weekend, although with the potential for partly sunny skies we may see highs slip into the low- or mid-80s. Rain chances look low, in the range of 10 percent, so any outdoor activities should be fine.

Next week

This very warm pattern may finally start to break down by late Sunday or Monday, as the dominant ridge of high pressure eases away. This may allow a weak front to push into the area, and introduce some drier air into the region. The global models aren’t suggesting that we’ll see a significantly cooler pattern for at least 10 to 12 days from now, however. The chance of significant rainfall looks to be really low for the next 10 days, as well, with only light showers possible for the most part.