Beryl will bring damaging winds, heavy rain into Houston area beginning tonight

In brief: So far Beryl hasn’t strengthened much today, but there is yet time for intensification before a final landfall tonight. This post goes into the likelihood of such intensification and what it would mean for Houston in terms of winds and the potential for power outages. We also look at the latest rain and surge forecasts.

Beryl status at 4 pm CT

As of this afternoon Beryl remains a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Its central pressure has dropped a bit to 988 mb, indication a trend toward better organization. The storm is moving to the north-northwest at 12 mph and remains on course to make landfall near Matagorda between midnight and 4 am CT on Monday.

Intensity and track outlook

The fact that we’re not seeing significant increases in Beryl’s winds this afternoon is great news. The biggest threat to the greater Houston area from Beryl is damaging winds, and less intensification means less damage once onshore.

Beryl is running out of time to strengthen—that is not a taunt, mind you. Please let the record show I did not taunt Beryl. The storm will move inland in 8 to 12 hours. There is still time, and the waters are very warm with atmospheric shear low. However, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center note the storm is still struggling to shrug off some dry air in its core. They are still calling for an 85-mph, Category 1 hurricane at landfall, with the likelihood of rapid intensification this evening. This certainly seems plausible, but I am rooting for that dry air to keep disrupting things for just a little while longer.

4pm CT Sunday official track forecast for Tropical Storm Beryl. (National Hurricane Center)

In terms of track there is very little change to the system. Beryl should come ashore early on Monday, and pass near Katy a little before noon before it lifts further out of the Houston area. This rapid forward movement should continue, allowing the worst effects to begin clearing out of the city during the afternoon hours.

What to expect, and when to expect it

Tropical-storm force winds should reach the coast, near Matagorda Bay, around sunset on Sunday and push into Galveston Island a few hours later. The stronger winds will move into much of the rest of the metro area just before or after midnight tonight. The heaviest rains will arrive around the same time. Please find shelter a few hours before this.

How bad will the winds get?

For this outlook I am going to focus on the possibility of seeing sustained winds of 60 mph or greater, which is likely near the threshold for widespread power outages. The map below shows the National Hurricane Center forecast for the probability of winds of 58 mph or greater from Beryl. I’ve annotated it with circle that roughly denotes Loop 610. Winds at this speed likely will not cause roof damage (that threshold is higher, perhaps 70 to 90 mph sustained winds). The map clearly shows the risk for damaging winds and power outages is greatest to the southwest of Houston:

Forecast for probability of 58 mph or greater winds. (National Hurricane Center)

Several readers have asked about tornadoes. Yes, they’re possible within the rainbands of Beryl tonight and on Monday morning. However I expect their development to be fairly scattered, and the bigger threat for a majority of people will be winds directly related to Beryl’s circulation.

Some thoughts on power outages

I’ve spent a couple of hours today doing some digging to try and set some expectations for power outages tonight and later on Monday as the core of Beryl’s winds move into the greater Houston area. Our most recent tropical system with a major “wind” component was Hurricane Ike, a Category 2 storm that made landfall in 2008. It came ashore about 90 miles further east than where we expect Beryl, but it was a much larger and more powerful hurricane. Here is what Ike’s sustained winds looked like.

Hurricane Ike sustained winds. (NOAA)

Ike knocked out power to 2.1 million CenterPoint Energy customers in Houston, and 10 days later the power remained out for about one-third of these customers. I want to be clear, I do not think Beryl will have this magnitude of an effect. Far from it, likely. But it’s useful to study the map of outages below and see where there were fewer problems (i.e. northwest Houston).

Power outages from Hurricane Ike immediately after the storm, and 10 days later. (CenterPoint)

My back-of-the-envelope estimate here is that widespread power outages start to become more likely at sustained wind speeds of about 60 mph. The majority of Houston will probably less than this tonight, although such winds are likely in many areas of Brazoria, Fort Bend, and Matagorda counties. They are also possible west of Houston, in locations such as Katy.

My general expectation, therefore, is that power losses will be in the hundreds of thousands, and restorations in days; rather that losses above 1 million with a week or two of restoration. However that is a guess rather than a firm conviction, and given since so many people are understandably concerned about this issue.

Finally, I very much do not expect hurricane-force sustained winds tonight in any part of the Houston metro area apart from the immediate coast near Matagorda, and possibly locations such as Freeport or Lake Jackson. For what it’s worth, CenterPoint’s estimate for Category 1 winds is: “extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.”

Graphic courtesy of CenterPoint.

The bottom line is that power outages will be a wait-and-see game. Good luck. Charge those phones now, my friends.

Let’s talk rainfall totals

We’ve seen some fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm activity today as Beryl’s outer rainbands have moved onshore. So far, it’s been fine. I expect to see additional storms this afternoon and evening, but it should be mostly manageable.

The main event should arrive at the coast a few hours before midnight, and push into Houston around midnight. Based on the latest modeling the “thickest” rain band will likely move through the city around 4 to 8 am, bringing intense rains that will quickly flood streets. Conditions should start to improve during the late morning hours. However I would expect to see additional rain showers later on Monday night and Tuesday due to trailing bands (which won’t be as intense). In any case, this is another good reason to stay home from this evening through Monday morning.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Wednesday. (Weather Bell)

In terms of accumulations, it still looks like coastal areas face the highest risk, with totals of 5 to 10 inches likely, and accumulations further inland of perhaps 4 to 8 inches. What we’re most concerned about are more isolated areas that fall under the heaviest banding. These locations could see 10 or more inches of rainfall. It is impossible to predict precisely where these will set up, but the latest modeling is hinting at higher totals near Galveston Bay. We’ll see. We have a Stage 2 flood alert in place.

Storm surge

Peak storm surge levels, the combination of high tide and surge, should arrive on Monday morning the upper Texas coast. For Galveston Island and Galveston Bay, water levels are expected to be 4 to 6 feet above normal levels. Surge should be slightly higher in Matagorda Bay.

Peak storm surge forecast due to Beryl. (National Hurricane Center)

Final thoughts and plans for tonight

Beryl is on our doorstep, and its winds, rains, and waves will move into our area tonight. The key thing I’m watching over the next several hours is whether the storm starts intensifying, as a weaker Beryl will cause far fewer problems in Houston on Monday morning. As always, we will hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Please make plans to get home, or to a safe place this evening, and remain there through the morning hours on Monday.

Our next post will come around 10:30 pm CT tonight, and we’ll continue to post overnight and into Monday as this dynamic event develops.

Want to know what a storm is likely to do where you are? Dig into your phone’s weather app

In brief: We’re happy to have Dwight Silverman, a longtime Houston tech journalist who is working with us behind the scenes, contribute this post on how to find hyper-local forecast information from the powerful computer in your pocket. Dwight explores some features and data in your phone’s weather apps you may not know existed.

Whenever a storm is bearing down on the Houston area, Eric and Matt are swamped with questions about conditions at individual readers’ locations. They have time to answer a few of them, but given what needs to be done and the volume of work they face, they can’t respond to all of these queries.

But there’s good news: Often, the answers you seek can be found in the palm of your hand.

Nearly everyone carries a smartphone, and many weather apps that are included with them can give you a lot more detail than just the current temperature and rain chances. Some let you drill deep into the metrics you want to know most about a major storm – wind speed and precipitation. Want to know what peak wind gusts will be when a storm is forecast to be nearest you? Or how much rain is expected to fall near you? There is, indeed, an app for that. They’re not perfect, and they don’t do a great job with uncertainty in forecasts, but they offer a solid approximation of what to expect.

This post is not intended to be a manual for weather apps, but rather to shed some light on features you may not realize are there, or are hidden a few layers deep in an app’s design. There are many third party weather apps out there, and I am not going to try to cover them all. But I will offer tips for some of the better one, and those that are included on your phone.

Space City Weather

You may have heard that we have our very own, free app? It’s true, and it’s available for both Apple products (iPhones, iPads, Macs) and Android devices. The app is primarily designed to give you quick access to Eric’s and Matt’s posts, current conditions, hourly and daily forecasts for a week out, as well as radar for any of 12 cities in our region. But one thing you may not realize is that it includes detailed, up-to-date National Weather Service forecasts and advisories on storms and hazardous conditions.

The lower right hand icon on the Space City Weather app home page takes you to the National Weather Service forecasts and current alerts.

Open the SCW app, tap the bell icon in the lower right corner of the screen to get to the Active Alerters as well as short- and long-term advisories. There are also discussions of aviation and marine weather as you scroll down. (Note: The aviation section will NOT tell if your flight has been canceled! Check with your airline, and keep an eye on the FAA’s airport status website.)

Apple Weather

After Apple bought the popular Dark Sky app, it soon redesigned the app that came with iPhones, iPads and Macs to incorporate the former’s hyperlocal forecast features. It will give you details about conditions – both current and future – at relatively precise locations.

However, this integration has been, umm, less than smooth. For example, last year the app was not loading data, and in other instances it was forecasting rain when there was none. The patient seems to have stabilized lately, but it’s a good idea to double-check what you see in Apple’s Weather app with other sources. (You can find where Apple gets its weather data here.)

That said, the app makes it easy to see forecasts for specifc conditions, particularly wind and precipitation, at your location. On the iPhone, iPad and Mac, it shows you conditions in individual tiles, and tapping any of them takes you to a screen that lets you move forward in time to check the the forecast for a specific condition.

Tapping on any of the tiles in the Apple Weather app gets you more detail, including forecast for specific conditions.

For example, if you scroll down on the iPhone to the Wind or Precipitation tiles and tap one, you’ll get the current conditions for the day in a chart. Scroll to the left to move to the next day, or tap the calendar date near the top.

Traveling and want conditions and forecasts for a different location? Enter the ZIP code in the search field. You can save any of the locations for future use. You’ll also see forecast alerts, warnings and advisories for those locations.

Android devices

Unlike Apple devices, which all have the same detailed Weather app, Android smartphones and tablets use different apps and services, depending on who makes the hardware. For example, Google’s Pixel phones use Google’s own weather service for much of its onscreen information, while Samsung and OnePlus phones will kick you out to a weather website, typically Weather.com.

But there is a general strategy you can use: In the five- or seven-day forecast list, choose the day you want to explore and tap it, then look for the metric – wind or precipitation – for the target location.

On a Google Pixel 6 Pro, tapping the weather widget on the home screen goes to Google’s weather information, and from there you can get to specific forecast metrics.

In the image above, tapping on the weather widget that’s the default on a Pixel phone’s home screen, you’re taken to a general weather page. From there, tap the day for which you want details, and scroll down for wind and precipitation forecasts for that day.

Experiment with the app on your Android phone to find the best route to the information you need.

Next, let’s look at a couple of third-party apps that, while not free for all features, may be well worth buying if you live on the Texas Gulf Coast.

RadarScope

RadarScope is one of the best apps for looking at weather radar data that’s available. It’s a favorite of Eric, Matt and mine, and while there’s a limited-capability free tier, it’s worth the $9.99 annual subscription for the Pro 1 level. (There’s a Pro 2 tier, but most folks will only need Pro 1.) It’s available for Apple devices – and when you pay for it once, you can use it on all Apple products, including the Apple TV 4K streaming box. It’s also available for Android devices, as well as Windows-based PCs.

This is indeed a professional-grade app, giving you access to different kinds of radar technologies and views. Once you unlock one of the Pro tiers, you’ll be able to see the direction storm cells are heading, the location of lightning strikes and local storm and damage reports from the NWS’s crowdsourcing MPing app.

RadarScope shows lots of details about storms on radar, here displaying the initial bands from Tropical Storm Beryl as they move toward Houston on the morning of Sunday, July 7, 2024.

You can pick and choose specific radar stations, both in the United States and abroad, including 13 in Texas. It’s easier to use and navigate on a traditional PC, but still extremely useful on your phone. The help files in the desktop version are helpful, and there’s even a Facebook group you can join to learn from other users.

Windy

Windy is available as a website and an iOS/iPadOS and Android app. As the name implies, its initial focus is on wind conditions, but it’s really a full-featured weather app, with one very interesting features: You can track storms based on computer weather models. Choose the model you want, along with the date and time for a forecast, and it animates the storm on a beautifully rendered map.

Windy lets you choose your weather model, then animates its resulting storm forecast on a map.

From the home screen, press and hold the Home icon. Tap the Basic label at the bottom to see the various forecasting models that are available. Choose one to see the storm at the current location, then scroll through the timeline to see where the storm is expected to be based on that model’s forecast.

While most of Windy’s features are available for free, some – like a 15-day forecast – require a subscription, starting at $2.99 a month up to $29.99 a year. But most folks can get along just fine with the free version.

There are many, many other weather apps and websites that can help you keep track of storm developments, and as I said at the outset this is not meant to be an exhaustive list of resources. (I didn’t even mention one of my favorites, Merry Sky, which was developed for those who miss the look and feel of the old Dark Sky app. Oh, wait, I just did!) If there’s an app you like, feel free to let others know in the comments.

Beryl tracking toward Matagorda, center likely to pass near west side of Houston: Serious impacts expected

In brief: We are now less than 24 hours before Beryl will make landfall in Texas, likely near Matagorda, which is located about 90 miles south-southwest of Houston. Along this track the greater Houston area, particularly the western half of the metro area, will see significant effects in the form of strong, battering winds in addition to heavy rainfall. This post will assess all of these threats, and their timing.

Tropical Storm Beryl status

As of 7 am CT, Tropical Storm Beryl still has sustained winds of 60 mph. Its central pressure is largely unchanged overnight, dropping only slightly from 993 to 992 millibars. This indicates that Beryl has yet to begin the process of significantly intensifying. The storm is almost due south of Galveston Island, and is moving to the northwest at 12 mph.

Beryl’s satellite appearance just before sunrise along the Texas coast on Sunday. (NOAA)

It is good that Beryl has not changed much overnight, but forecasters still expect the storm to find favorable conditions for intensification during the next 18 to 24 hours before it makes a final landfall along the Texas coast.

Track of Beryl and its intensity

The trends in the overnight model runs for Beryl have not been great for the Houston metro area. The most likely track remains a landfall near Matagorda, but this could still change today with a wobble in one direction or another as a better defined center of circulation forms. Along this track the Houston region will be subjected to some of the strongest winds and heaviest rains from Beryl.

Forecast track for Beryl as of 7 am CT on Sunday. (National Hurricane Center)

Forecasters still expect Beryl to intensify today, given the lowering wind shear levels and ample moisture in the atmosphere. The National Hurricane Center predicts the storm will be a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds at landfall early on Monday morning. This could be an overestimate if Beryl continues to struggle with getting organized today. However, the most likely scenario is strengthening today, with the potential for rapid intensification tonight. Expect a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane at landfall.

Conditions on Sunday prior to landfall

Beginning later this morning, Houston may see fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms as the outer rainbands of Beryl move inland. These storms may be briefly intense, but should be navigable for the most part. Winds will be increasing today and this evening from the southeast, but still within manageable levels, with gusts in the 20s. For coastal areas, conditions will start to deteriorate after sunset, with inland areas, including the city of Houston, seeing markedly stronger winds by late evening and after midnight.

Beryl’s winds

Beryl will produce strong winds near its center and to its right. Although there are still likely to be some subtle changes in the storm’s track and location of its is strongest winds, it is now clear that strong winds will cause significant impacts for the greater Houston area, including the potential for widespread power outages. The extent of these outages will depend on the strengthening of Beryl today and tonight as it nears the Texas coast. Other concerns include downed trees and damaged roofs. It is strongly advisable to secure loose objects today, prior to Beryl’s landfall.

The greatest impacts are likely to be in locations such as Sargent, Freeport, and Lake Jackson. However, tropical storm-force winds are also likely along Galveston Island and large parts of the Houston metro area, particularly to the south and west of the city.

Best-guess forecast for Beryl’s maximum wind gusts over the Houston metro area. Note that gusts are higher than the sustained winds by which hurricanes are measured. (National Weather Service)

Matagorda, Wharton, Fort Bend, and Brazoria counties are likely to see the strongest winds, with sustained winds of 45 to 75 mph, and higher gusts. Most of the rest of the Houston metro area is at risk for winds of 35 to 55 mph, with higher gusts. If you’re wondering how these compare to Hurricane Ike, here is a map of sustained peak winds during that notable 2008 hurricane.

These winds will peak between late Sunday night and sunrise for coastal areas, and a little bit later for inland areas. Winds will be receding area-wide by Monday afternoon.

Beryl’s storm surge

Storm surge occurs when a hurricane’s winds align with the onshore flow, pushing large amounts of water onto land. Its most significant impacts occur over immediate coastal areas, and the storm surge level typically peaks along with high tide. In Beryl’s case, water levels are already higher than normal with the storm’s winds. Surge levels should peak between 6 am and 9 am CT on Monday before rapidly receding later in the day, likely reaching near-normal levels by Monday night.

Due to Beryl’s track, expected storm surge levels have ticked a little bit higher. Galveston Island and Galveston Bay should now see a surge 3 to 5 feet above normal levels.

Peak storm surge levels. (National Hurricane Center)

Inland rainfall potential

Beryl’s track also places the core of its heavier rains over the Houston metro area. Coastal areas are likely at the highest risk for heavy rainfall, with 5 to 10 inches likely from Matagorda Bay to Galveston Island, and higher isolated totals. Further inland, much of the Houston area can probably expect 4 to 8 inches, with higher isolated totals. Since this rainfall will come down rapidly, we can expect streets to rapidly flood.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast from Beryl. (National Weather Center)

Although stronger thunderstorms will be possible this evening, the most intense rainfall should occur between midnight tonight and noon on Monday. After this time the storm will be pulling away to the north of the city. I cannot rule out an additional trailing band of rainfall later on Monday or Monday night. However, the fairly rapid northward movement of Beryl after landfall is our friend. We have issued a Stage 2 flood alert for the entire Houston metro area.

How should you be thinking about this

Beryl will be an impactful storm for the Houston region. This is far from a worst-case scenario hurricane for our area, but it will be significantly disruptive tonight and on Monday. Beginning this evening, you should shelter in your home. The worst of the winds and rains will come tonight and into Monday morning, with improving conditions thereafter. Due to the likelihood of street flooding on Monday morning, you should carefully consider any plans before noon.

The current track forecast indicates the possibility of widespread power outages, and the duration of these outages will depend on how many people lose power as it will mean more work for restoration crews.

In terms of programming, I will be conducting a video Q&A on our Facebook page at 1 pm CT today. You can submit questions in the comments below for that chat, if you like. Dwight will also have a post today about maximizing the potential of weather data on your phone to understand local conditions during the height of the storm. Our next major update on Beryl’s track and its implications for Houston will come around 4:30 pm CT today.

Saturday Night Live: With your host, Beryl, and featured musical guest, Katrina and the Waves

In brief: Just a few thoughts to share on Tropical Storm Beryl tonight—basically some things I’ll be looking for on Sunday. If you’re looking for a nuts-and-bolts forecast of what impacts to expect in Houston on Monday, please see our post from earlier today, which holds up fine tonight. We’ll have a comprehensive update for you first thing in the morning.

When will Beryl start intensifying again?

As of late Saturday night, Beryl remains a high-end tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Its intensity has not changed much today, as expected, due to shear and entrainment of dry air. However, as we’ve been discussing, Beryl is moving into a more favorable environment tonight and on Sunday, and therefore it is virtually certain to re-strengthen.

The National Hurricane Center forecast for Beryl, at 10 pm CT on Saturday night, brings the storm center to the west of Houston. (National Hurricane Center)

One key question at this point is when Beryl starts to rev back up. This is because once Beryl starts to increase its winds, it likely won’t stop intensifying until it runs into Texas. So on Sunday I’ll be watching to see how soon Beryl’s winds start to increase, and how fast its central pressure (currently 993 mb) starts to fall.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts Beryl to come ashore as a Category 1 hurricane, with 85 mph winds. However, the forecasters there acknowledge that Beryl could rapidly intensify in the final hours before it comes ashore as the system reaches an environment with significantly lower wind shear. In addition, historically, we have seen hurricanes intensify as they near the Texas coast. The bottom line is that the later Beryl starts intensifying, the better, as it could easily become stronger than a Category 1 hurricane.

A silver lining: Beryl is moving at a good clip

One bit of good news is that the storm is moving a bit faster than expected, so it will have less time over water to get going. Some of our best models, including the European and GFS models, now bring the storm to the Texas coast around 2 to 4 am CT on Monday, several hours faster than previously thought. This will give Beryl less time to rapidly intensify.

The forward motion will also help with rainfall totals, both at landfall and after it moves onshore. Houstonians are justifiably jumpy when it comes to inland rainfall from hurricanes after Harvey, and this storm will make landfall only a little way up the coast from where Harvey did. But Beryl is no Harvey. In fact, the forecast for Beryl’s forward motion after landfall is also trending faster. So while I do expect to see some very intense rainfall in the Houston metro area on Monday, increasingly it looks as though the heavy rain will exit to our north by Monday night or early Tuesday.

We should have better clarity on Beryl’s impacts in Houston by tomorrow, as we’ll be less than a day before landfall. The bottom line is that everyone in the Houston area, but especially residents south and west of the city, should be prepared for heavy rainfall and higher winds on Monday. How much rain, and how strong the wind will be is something we’ll try to fully pin down in tomorrow’s forecast. This will, of course, depend to some extent on the rapid intensification (or not) of Beryl discussed above.

Have a good night, everyone.