The good news today is that Friday’s forecast may not be too bad at all. Yes, there will be rain chances tomorrow, but the worst of the weather should pass by early morning. The bad news is that tonight may feature midnight rain, staggered sleep, and an excitable dog index of at least eight out of ten.

Today

Today will be a bit challenging to pin down exactly. The morning looks fine. By midday, we should begin to see thunderstorms develop west of the Houston area, mainly on a line from College Station through Columbus. These storms will gradually become a bit stronger and slowly slide east, perhaps to Conroe or Huntsville south through Katy by late afternoon. By then, any storms could become borderline severe, with hail and gusty winds. Areas east of I-45 and along the coast may see little to nothing for most of today.

By evening, we’ll see scattered showers and storms pretty much along or northwest of Highway 59/I-69.

Thursday evening and overnight

Main message: Phase one of storms mainly north and west of Houston will begin winding down this evening. The second phase of storms should be widespread and hit most of the area with heavy rain, lots of thunder and lightning, and potentially strong, gusty winds in the overnight hours. It would be a good idea to have a way to receive weather warnings overnight, just to be safe.

Details: Afternoon storms will also develop on Thursday out in Hill Country and along the I-35 corridor. That separate area of storms will likely congeal into a well-organized complex of storms that rushes south and east this evening. The bulk of that will pass along and north of I-10 around or after midnight. Additionally, new storms “feeding” the main complex will develop south of Houston and lift northward. This can be seen in the forecast radar from the HRRR model at 2 AM tonight. I annotated the two areas here.

These types of setups are typically favorable to produce strong, gusty winds. Some of the storms developing to the south could become a bit severe as well, with hail or strong winds. Basically, all this adds up to a setup that is favorable to produce noisy weather in the overnight hours, probably beginning around or just before midnight north and west and then most of the rest of the areas between 12 and 3 AM. By 6 or 7 AM, most of the storms should be offshore.

Rain totals will probably average 1 to 2 inches for much of the area. The exceptions to this may be southwest of Houston. The heaviest activity may miss north and east of there, so rain totals risk coming in under an inch for places like Fort Bend County back through Wharton. Northwest of Houston and east of I-45 could see slightly greater amounts, as this is where storms will probably be heaviest.

Friday

Showers and storms should race offshore in the early morning. Typically, the atmosphere is pretty worked over after an event like this, so while there will continue to be a chance of showers or even a thunderstorm as the cold front approaches in the afternoon, the risk of anything significant appears to be on the low side right now. Expect gradual clearing and highs in the 80s Friday if the sun can break out for a time.

Saturday

Definitely the pick of the weekend. We expect morning lows in the 50s or low-60s, sunshine, and afternoon highs in the upper-70s. Weather for Taylor or the Dynamo match versus Inter Miami looks great.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend is a much trickier proposition. Morning lows will be in the 50s or low-60s. Then, there will be two forecasts for Sunday: One will be north of I-10, and the other will be south of I-10. Keep in mind that this is meant to be a generalization, not an exact demarcation.

For folks north of I-10, you will likely see clouds and perhaps a little sunshine. There is a slight chance of showers in the afternoon, especially the closer you are to Houston. Highs will be in the low to mid-70s depending on how much sun can break through.

Those of you south of I-10 should see clouds thicken up with highs in the low-70s. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop during the afternoon, especially the closer you are to Matagorda Bay. Rain could be heavy at times.

I would caution that there’s still a fair bit of uncertainty on the specifics of Sunday’s forecast, so if you have plans, be they T-Swift or otherwise, check back in with us tomorrow for the latest.

Early next week

The front half of next week looks generally unsettled with a chance of showers, albeit a fairly low one Monday and Tuesday. There may be a better chance of showers or storms Wednesday. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s and lows generally in the 60s.

Late next week & MS 150 preview

Presumably, Wednesday’s storms will herald a cold front that should bring in cooler, drier air for late next week. This would mean highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s or low-60s, along with low humidity. What does this mean for next weekend’s MS 150 ride across southeast Texas?

Usually when we get fronts like this in late April, the cool air stays a day or two, and then onshore flow resumes and we’re back to warm and humid. This front may have a little more “oomph” behind it, so I might be willing to say that Saturday would continue to be pleasant, with highs in the upper-70s to near 80, sunshine, and comfortably low humidity. It’s far too early to speculate much on wind, but this type of pattern would probably produce a light east or northeast wind, so almost a tail wind for Saturday if you’re leaving from Houston. I would assume that winds would be out of the south and a bit stronger on Sunday, with slightly higher humidity and highs in the 80s. For now, rain chances look low, but I have to caution that it’s still early. We will keep you posted!

Good morning. Warmth and humidity has returned to the region, and we will see a calm day in the 80s today before rain and the possibility of storms enters the forecast later Thursday through Friday. This will, in turn, be followed by pleasant conditions on Saturday and most of Sunday before the return of more rain chances. Note that, in honor of the Taylor Swift concerts this Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in Houston, I’ve changed the day names accordingly. If you don’t like that, well, Shake it Off.

Wednesday

Skies will be partly sunny today, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. Most of the region will remain rain-free, but the western half of the region has a (very) slight chance of seeing some sprinkles this afternoon. For most of us it will just be a mix of sunshine and clouds, with at-times gusty southerly winds. Low temperatures tonight will only drop to around 70 degrees with mostly cloudy skies.

Thursday

Temperatures and humidity on Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, but skies will be mostly cloudy. However, beginning during the afternoon hours, we’re likely to see some showers develop along a boundary north of Houston. Put another way, expect the possibility of scattered showers or thunderstorms north of Interstate 10. By late Thursday evening into Friday morning, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread.

You Need To Calm Down

The best chance for heavy rain this week is likely to come overnight Thursday into Friday morning. We’re going to have to refine this forecast as we get closer, but the hail and damaging winds are possible into Friday morning ahead of a cold front that will arrive later in the day. In terms of accumulations, I think most of the area will see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon.

So what does this mean for the Taylor Swift concert? At this time I think rain chances will be winding down during the afternoon or evening hours, so the best chance of storms should be over. However if you’re getting to NRG Stadium several hours before the show starts, it will be something to monitor. After the show I would not have any concerns. However, winds will be be breezy, out of the north, gusting up to 30 mph. Hold on to your hats! Lows Friday night will drop into the upper 50s.

The Best Day

Saturday is going to be a fine, fine springtime day. Look for highs in the low- to mid-70s with mostly sunny skies. Those winds from Friday night will be starting to wind down, so we’ll only need to concern ourselves with gusts of 15 mph or so. Lows on Saturday night will depend on how far you live from the coast, but I think most of the area will drop into the 50s.

All You Had To Do Was Stay

Alas, the cold front is not going to stay on Sunday. Pretty quickly, we’re going to see the return of the onshore flow, and this will allow clouds to develop on Sunday. Highs will be in the low 70s. Rain chances may start to return as quickly as Sunday afternoon or evening, which may be a concern if you’re heading to the third and final Swift concert in Houston. Some models are bringing a healthy chance of showers back into the forecast for Sunday night, which is a potential concern for weather after the show. We’ll try to get a more finely tuned forecast for you in the next day or two.

Next week

Taylor’s gone, but the weather goes on and on. Houston is likely to see a warming trend, with at least a decent chance of showers through Tuesday or Wednesday, after which a weak front may arrive to bring sunnier skies for awhile. After that the crystal ball starts to get cloudy …

After an absolutely lovely Monday, Houston’s weather will now begin to do Houston things again, which means the return of an onshore flow, the potential for rain showers, and warmer and more humid conditions. But fear not, my friends, this forecast has something for everyone, with highs in the mid-80s, then some healthy rain chances on Thursday night and Friday, followed by cooler and drier air this weekend.

Tuesday

Winds are light this morning, out of the south and southeast, heralding the return of a warmer flow off of the Gulf of Mexico. This will help push high temperatures into the upper 70s today, along with mostly cloudy skies. We’re also going to see a decent chance—40 percent, maybe?—of some light to moderate rain showers today as an upper-level disturbance moves through from west to east. Some of these showers are already kicking off west and southwest of the city. For the most part, rain accumulations should be on the order of a few tenths of an inch of rain, give or take. Skies will remain mostly cloudy tonight, with lows dropping only into the upper 60s.

Wednesday

A little warmer, a little more humid, and with rain chances a little lower, perhaps only 10 or 20 percent. Look for highs somewhere around 80 degrees, or a touch higher if we get a decent stretch of partly to mostly sunny skies during the afternoon. Winds will be a bit more blowy, gusting to perhaps 20 miles out of the southeast. Wednesday night will be warm and cloudy.

Thursday and Friday

This will be a warm and potentially wet period ahead of a cold front on Friday, likely during the evening hours. Both days should see highs in the low- to mid-80s, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. The real question is how much rain we’re going to see from Thursday evening through Friday night. Models have gotten a little more bullish on factors such as instability, so I think we’re looking at a solid 0.25 to 1 inch of rain for most of the area, with higher totals possible to the northeast of Houston. Cooler and drier air should start arriving some time on Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday

Oh, hello. Did you DoorDash a gorgeous spring weekend from Mother Nature? Because you are in luck. As of right now, I think we’re looking at mostly sunny skies, with highs in the neighborhood of 70 degrees, on both weekend days. Lows will bottom out on Saturday night, perhaps hitting the upper 40s for areas well inland. Saturday should be breezy in the wake of the front, but right now those winds don’t look too crazy.

Next week

We’ll start to warm up by Monday or Tuesday, and the middle of next week looks fairly humid and fairly warm. So if you like cooler weather, please do enjoy this weekend.

Matt here covering for Eric, and I’ll take my extra time in the hot seat to stir the pot: In my own personal opinion, and feel free to disrespectfully disagree with me, Sunday was one of the top 5 nicest days of the year in Houston. It was clear, pleasant, and though breezy at times, it was surely a nice one. If you liked yesterday, you will love today.

Monday

We are starting off rather cool today with temperatures as cold as the low-40s in some outlying locations, including the league leader in cold mornings, Conroe.

Today will be another chamber of commerce day for Houston with sun, low humidity, and mild temperatures warming from the 40s or 50s into the 70s. Some clouds could filter in as the day progresses, but that should be the only blemish.

Tuesday

Tomorrow looks to be our transition day from the blue bell weather to something a little more typical of later April. Look for humidity to slowly increase through the day, as clouds dominate and a few showers or a thunderstorm pop up. Showers could begin as early as around sunrise. Basically, have an umbrella with you tomorrow, though some locations may not get wet. Highs will nudge into the upper-70s or low-80s after a morning in the 60s.

Wednesday & Thursday

Both Wednesday and Thursday will tend to have a mix of clouds and sun, typical spring stuff for Houston. There will be a chance of showers or a thunderstorm on both days. Right now I think Thursday has a little edge on Wednesday for higher rain chances, but it’s not exactly a slam dunk. Just be prepared to dodge some scattered showers both days, meaning many places won’t see anything, while others could see some downpours.

Highs will be in the upper-70s to mid-80s. Lows will be in the 60s to near 70 or so.

Late week & weekend

It’s tough to say exactly how the end of the week and weekend will go. Back on Friday it looked like we had about a 30 to 40 percent chance of a cold front pushing through the area either Friday or Saturday. Today, I would say that is up to about a 50 percent chance or even a little higher. The trouble is that if the front whiffs, it would probably be because it stalled out nearby, keeping showers in the forecast each day, along with higher humidity. So, for now, let’s go for a 50/50 chance of a more refreshing weekend. Otherwise, expect a continuation of Wednesday and Thursday’s weather. We’ll try to get closer on this tomorrow.

Looking ahead

The specific forecast for Southeast Texas this time of year always gets tricky because of the reasons noted about regarding fronts that like to stall out. But, looking at the pattern over the next couple weeks, it would appear that next week runs the risk of being a bit cooler than normal (particularly the front part of the week).

Rainfall is expected to be at or slightly above normal as well. It looks like spring.