In brief: The heat goes on. And on. Houston is also dealing with a good bit of haze and smoke in the air from Central American agricultural fires, common in late spring. We remain cautious about a brief cool front next week, however.

First, a quick programming note. As summer is now underway in Houston, look for the Space City Weather summer outlook later this morning from Eric!

Haze, haze go away

Temperatures this week, while very, very hot have actually come up a couple degrees short of forecasts for the most part. Not by like 10 degrees or anything but something on the order of 1 to 3 degrees. Why? Almost certainly because of the low clouds and haze that have been ever-present over the area.

Why the haze? Well, this is the time of year when agricultural burning is ongoing in Mexico and Central America. How much? A lot.

With winds out of the south across the Gulf, this will transport all that smoke into our area. This is a common issue here in Texas this time of year, but it feels a little worse because of how hot it is so early. Whatever the case, given the number of fires ongoing and the amount of smoke already in the air to our south, I do not expect that this haze will relent anytime soon.

Today through Sunday

The heat continues. We may begin to push heat advisory criteria at some point soon. We’ve had a couple bursts of drier air this week that helped keep heat index values mostly in check (we did touch 100° for heat index at both IAH and Hobby yesterday briefly). While that could continue, we should begin to see a bit less wind. Overall, it will just start feeling a little more uncomfortable today, tomorrow, and perhaps Sunday. Expect highs in the low to mid-90s all three days with clouds, sun, and haze.

Rain chances are pretty close to zero, however, if you live around Brenham, Navasota, or Huntsville, it looks like there will be scattered thunderstorms firing up to your northwest on Friday afternoon. I would not be shocked if some of those make an attempt to reach these areas this evening. Just something to note.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday will probably just serve as an extension of the current weather pattern. So look for clouds, sun, haze, and 90s.

Now, later Tuesday there could be some showers or thunderstorms around closer to the area. And this continues to look like it *may* come with a brief front. If that can happen, it would still be rather hot on Wednesday, but the front would take a huge bite out of the humidity, in addition to cooling off our nights a bit. Will it happen? <Cue: Dramatic music> Find out Monday on the next edition of <studio audience cheering> SPACE! CITY! WEATHER!

In brief: Heat records are continuing to fall across the region as Houston (and much of Texas) falls under the sway of high pressure. In today’s post we explain just how abnormal this is for May, and look ahead to a hot weekend. There is a modest chance of some relief next week.

Heat records fall

As expected, the city of Houston broke its high temperature record on Wednesday. The new mark of 96 degrees surpasses the old record of 93 degrees, set back in 2018. The local office of the National Weather Service also provided some additional nuggets of information to put this May heat wave into context:

• The average date of the city’s first 95-degree day is June 13, this year we did it on May 13
• Before this year, the last time Houston was this hot, this early in May was 1967 (96 on May 8)
• This year’s mark of 95 on May 13 is the fifth earliest we’ve been that hot it in a calendar year

In addition, we are likely to tie or exceed the city’s record high temperature today (94 degrees, set in 2018) and possibly on Friday (94 degrees, 2022) although by then we might see a very slight moderation in temperatures.

Thursday

If you’ve stepped outside during the last couple days, you have a pretty good idea of what to expect for Thursday. Partly cloudy skies this morning will give way to a sunny afternoon, with high temperatures generally in the mid-90s in Houston, with upper 90s possible further inland, and slightly cooler highs closer to the coast. Southerly winds will, again, be gusty from the south at up to 25 mph. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Not much changes this weekend, when most of the area should see highs in the low- to mid-90s. There may be some variance in cloud cover, with a few more clouds on Friday and Sunday, but in general I still expect there to be a fair amount of sunshine during the daytime hours. We can expect that persistent southerly breeze through the weekend, with gusts peaking during the afternoon hours. Nights remain the same, warm and muggy. Rain chances are close to, but not quite zero.

Next week

The first half of next week starts out warm, essentially a continuation of this week’s weather. However much of our model guidance is now hinting at a weak front approaching, and possibly pushing into the area by mid-week. This certainly is no guarantee, and its impact should be limited. But at least it may spark some showers, and give us a bit of drier air. We’ll just have to see how the forecast evolves over the next few days.

In brief: After Houston set heat records on Tuesday, we should see more of the same today and Thursday. The overall pattern moderates slightly this weekend, but we are looking at mostly sunny and hot weather at least into next week.

Record watch

Houston broke its high temperature record on Tuesday, with the mercury reaching 95 degrees. This topped the record of 94 degrees, set in 1907. The city will almost certainly break high temperature records today (93 degrees, set in 2018) and on Thursday (94 degrees, 2018). We then will come close through the weekend, and my tie or break additional records.

This is not particularly where one wants to be in the middle of May, with at least four months of summer ahead. But here we are. Matt and I are working on a summer preview, which we will publish in a couple of days. I don’t want to spoil anything, but I don’t think there will be any surprises. This high pressure pattern currently in place, known as an Omega block, can be fairly persistent. And seeing one at this time of year is not a good sign.

Wednesday and Thursday

The setup favors maximum heating today and Thursday, so we can expect the urban core of Houston to hit at least the mid-90s. Areas north and west of the city will be hotter, and we can’t entirely rule out a few isolated readings of 100 degrees. Areas closer to the coast should be a bit cooler, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Conditions will be breezy, with sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph, and gusts up to 25 mph. Skies will be mostly sunny during the daytime, with some clouds building in during the evenings and overnight. Lows will only drop into the mid- or upper-70s, so it will definitely feel muggy outside.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Daily high temperatures may back off a couple of degrees this weekend, but it is still going to be sizzling for mid-May, feeling more like late June or July out there. It’s also worth noting that we are about one month away from the Sun reaching its highest point in the sky, so your skin will burn quickly. Please take precautions for prolonged Sun exposure. And we are going to see a lot of sunshine this weekend, with rain chances hovering around zero.

Next week

When we get in pressure patterns like this, it becomes a waiting game to see when it will break. At this point, I think the earliest likelihood of this is next Wednesday or Thursday, when rain chances and somewhat more moderate temperatures may return. But there certainly are no guarantees.

In brief: Spring effectively ended on Monday after two lovely weekends in a row. But that’s all over now as summer has arrived in Houston. Expect hot and sunny weather to prevail for at least the next week, and probably beyond.

An almost summer-like setup

High pressure has begun to build over the region, and this will continue to intensify over the next few days. This means sinking (rather than rising) air, and mostly sunny days. In addition to this we are seeing a southwesterly flow in the atmosphere, bringing warm air into the region. This is a classic setup for hot temperatures, and although it is just May this is the pattern we are going to experience for at least the next week, if not beyond. In my opinion the 90s was an excellent decade, I would argue the best decade, but I’m not sure its the temperatures I want to feel in May. But here we are.

Tuesday

As a result of this pattern we can expect mostly sunny skies today, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s across the city (the coast may be slightly cooler). Southerly winds will be gusty this afternoon, up to 20 or possibly even 25 mph. And we can more or less expect the same southerly winds, peaking during the afternoon, for the next week. Low temperatures tonight will unlikely fall much below 75 degrees. Oh, and there will be humidity. Plenty of it. Rain chances are near zero.

Wednesday through Sunday

The above pattern will more or less persist through the weekend. I think temperatures will peak on Wednesday, with many locations possibly reaching the upper 90s, but we should come down a couple of degrees by the weekend. But this is splitting hairs, really, We are looking at sunny and hot weather during the daytime, and partly cloudy and muggy nights. If you’re heading to central Texas, the heat will be scorching there. Austin is expected to smash daily high temperature records by as much as 10 degrees, with a high approaching 107 degrees on Wednesday.

Next week

At this time I don’t expect much change at least for the first half of next week. Highs will likely remain in the 90s. We may start to see some spotty showers as the upper air pattern changes a bit, but once we get into these hot and rain-free patterns, long-time residents will know they can become difficult to break.