In brief: This post discusses the month of August, and why it is the worst month of the year for weather in Houston. It also delves into our hot and hazy weather ahead, and takes a peek at a tropical system that’s near Puerto Rico and may be a rainmaker for Florida next week.

A word about August

This month is named after the Roman emperor Augustus, who is considered by some historians to be Rome’s greatest ruler, and by others a tyrannical usurper. His greatest crime, however, is renaming this month after himself. Prior to that little matter of self-aggrandizement, the month was called Sextilis. That would have made an interesting naming choice for our hottest and steamiest month.

In any case, August is the worst month because it is the hottest month of the year in Houston. And we typically vacillate between the extremes of drought and flood, sometimes within a matter of hours. There is no happy medium. There is no break from the humidity. There is only August. It is also the month, alongside September, when we are most vulnerable to landfalls from major, destructive hurricanes. Now my colleague Matt Lanza will argue that September is worse. Why? Because September can also be hot, and there is the often false hope of a a cool front. But let me tell you, Lanza is dead wrong. I have lived through enough Septembers in Houston to know that we very often do get our first front in September, and it feels glorious.

Anyway, August is here. It’s always hot. It’s always humid. Let us fervently hope it is hurricane-free.

Thursday

There will be plenty haze again today, which will fade the blueish nature of the sky, as we continue to see an influx of Saharan dust. This haze, at varying levels, should remain with us through Saturday or so. Otherwise, beneath high pressure, we should see sunny skies and hot temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. Winds will be light, out of the south or southeast, at 5 to 10 mph this afternoon. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 70s. And humidity—well, you should know whether to ask about humidity in August.

Friday and Saturday

Temperatures will likely peak these days, with high temperatures likely in the upper 90s for much of the metro area. As mentioned above, we should still see a fair bit of haze from dust. However, beyond the haze we’re going to see sunny skies and rain chances below 10 percent. These will be good beach days or otherwise suitable for outdoor activities near water.

Sunday and Monday

A weak front is going to near the Houston region on Sunday, and this may bring a few more clouds. (Although I’m still going to bet on mostly sunny skies). Rain chances will be a little bit higher, but still on the order of only about 20 percent daily. Temperatures may fall back a degree or two, into the mid- to upper-90s. Still, it’s going to be plenty hot.

Remainder of next week

We’ll continue to see hot and mostly sunny weather for much of next week, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s. There’s the slight potential for some sea breeze showers each afternoon, and maybe some slightly better rain chances toward the end of next week. But I’m not sold on that.

The Tropics

I’ll have more on the The Eyewall later this morning, but the forecast for a tropical wave that is now nearing Puerto Rico continues to fluctuate. For now it looks like a weaker system will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and eventually move north toward Florida. Then it may spin around awhile before finally lifting north. This is very likely not an issue for the Western Gulf of Mexico, but is definitely something to watch for Florida and parts nearby.

In brief: With high pressure in place this week, expect hot temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and few if any stray showers. The only real feature of note, beyond the heat, will be hazy skies due to the influx of Saharan dust into the atmosphere. Rain chances increase slightly by Sunday as a weak front stalls north of the metro area.

Wednesday

Weeks like these, which often come during the summertime months in Houston, are easy to forecast in Texas. With high pressure more or less in place we can expect sultry but calm weather. And that will be the case today, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures generally in the mid-90s. Winds will be from the south at about 5 to 10 mph, with some higher gusts this afternoon and during the early evening hours. Low temperatures will briefly drop into the upper 70s tonight for inland areas. Rain chances are below 10 percent.

The main novelty for today, and much of the rest of this week, will be the presence of haze due to the Saharan air layer. These are fine particles of dust from Africa, transported across the Atlantic Ocean all the way to Texas. This pattern typically peaks during July so it is not abnormal to see this dust, nor particularly harmful. Sunsets will appear a deeper red.

Thursday

A day a lot like Wednesday.

Friday

We may start to see a bit less dust in the atmosphere, and with sunny skies most of the area could see highs push into the upper 90s.

Saturday and Sunday

High pressure will retreat some this weekend, and a weak front will approach the region but stall out well north of us. With that being said, I’m not sure there will be a whole lot of sensible change in our weather. Saturday will be sunny and hot. We may see the return of some African dust for a bit, we’ll see. Sunday looks sunny and hot as well, but due to the presence of the front we could see some isolated to scattered showers develop during the afternoon hours.

Next week

High pressure appears to be back in play next week, so we can expect to see continued temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s as we get deeper into August. There does appear to be some support for higher rain chances during the latter half of next week, but when we get into these drier patterns these kinds of showers are sometimes a mirage in the models. We’ll see.

Tropics

The main focus continues to be on a tropical wave approaching the Caribbean Sea, which is likely to near the Bahamas in a couple of days. It may take some time, but forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expect this system to eventually get its act together and become a tropical depression or storm during the next week. The primary threat in terms of winds and rains looks to be across Florida, but there’s not a lot of certainty in the models.

In brief: Houston jumped back into the mid-90s on Monday, and that’s where we are going to be for awhile as high pressure dominates our weather this week. Aside from the heat, which will be high but far from exceptional for this time of year in Houston, we have few concerns. This post will also discuss the tropics, which are awakening from their mid-July slumber.

Tuesday

The main difference today, from Monday, is that we’ll see a slightly better chance of some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. It’s definitely just a puncher’s chance, with perhaps 10 or 20 percent coverage, but you may hear a few rumbles later today. We should also start to see the onset of some haze later today, due to Saharan dust that has traveled all the way across the Atlantic. This should pose no health concerns, and is beneficial for our soils. Sunsets should also be great this week.

High temperatures today, like on Monday, will push into the mid-90s for most locations away from the coast. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph, with a few gusts of 15 mph or higher this afternoon. Low temperatures should briefly drop into the upper 70s tonight, away from Houston.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of hot and sunny days, with high temperatures mostly in the mid-90s, but with the possibility of some inland locations sneaking into the upper-90s. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph, but Wednesday at least should see some slightly gustier conditions during the afternoon hours. Rain chances are likely 10 percent or less. Haze should be most predominant on these days, so if you look up, you’ll be staring into African dust. It’s a big world, but it’s also a small world.

Friday

Our weather for this week will mostly be guided by a high pressure system. However, by Friday or so, that system should begin to back off a bit. This may introduce a slight chance of showers, perhaps on the order of 20 percent or so by Friday. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-90s.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend looks to bring sunny skies, with high temperatures generally in the mid-90s. If I squint I can see the possibility of some rain showers, but overall chances are around 10 percent or less. It should be a good beach day after a long period of not-great summer weekend weather. I can’t believe school starts in just a couple of weeks.

Sunday, Monday, and beyond

As mentioned above, as high pressure backs off a bit, we should see some slightly cooler weather—think lower- to mid-90s rather than mid- to upper-90s—and some daily rain chances in the ballpark of 20 to 30 percent daily. Skies still look to be partly to mostly sunny, for the most part. All in all, this weather looks to be fairly benign for early August in Houston, typically the hottest time of the year.

Tropics

Speaking of non-benign things, as we get into August the Atlantic tropics start to heat up. Matt has got you covered on the Eyewall when it comes to a tropical wave that could threaten the Bahamas, and maybe eventually Florida. As for the Texas coast, there are no concerns from that system, nor anything else at this moment. Let’s hope things remain that way.

In brief: This post describes the distinct pattern change we’ve seen from a wet end of July into a warmer August. Yes, sunshine is back on the menu. Additionally, we take stock of where we are with summer in Houston now that we’re about half way through it.

Where we are so far

By most measures we are about half way through summer in Houston, having gotten through June and nearly all of July. Moreover, as of today, we have reached the historically “hottest” time of year, when daytime and nighttime temperatures peak. This period runs through July 29 through August 12, typically the warmest two weeks of the year. So congratulations, we had to come through a Category 1 hurricane and some pretty nasty power outages to get here, but we are making progress toward fall.

What I didn’t say above is anything about extreme temperatures. That’s because, so far, temperatures this summer have been near normal for the last 30 years. The monthly average temperature in June was 1.6 degrees above normal, and for July we are likely to end up at around 1 degree below normal. Thus far this summer, we have hit 100 degrees just a single time, on July 1. Last month we actually had one day with a high of 78 degrees, thanks to the persistent rainfall during the last 10 days of July.

So where does that leave us staring into the abyss of August? Well, there is no drought for as far as the eye can see, and indeed well beyond that. With our saturated soils, we are well positioned for the rest of summer. The wet soils should also help moderate daytime high temperatures, at least a bit, for a few weeks. And, of course, all the rain during the last week will continue to produce a bumper crop of mosquitoes for awhile longer.

August is my least favorite month of the year, by far. It is prone to the hottest weather, and it is when the threat of large and powerful hurricanes starts to peak. (While the Atlantic tropics are starting to wake up from their slumber during the second half of July, there are as yet no threats to Texas). Honestly, if we can get through the next eight weeks, then fall is distinctly on the horizon, and we’ll be near the end of hurricane season for Texas.

Most of our modeling guidance (CFS, European, GFS temperature 30-day temperature forecasts) suggests that temperatures in August will be near normal. In terms of precipitation, we are also likely looking at near-normal levels of precipitation. We shall see. One tropical system can scramble all of that.

Monday

The long-awaited pattern change has arrived. For the first time in awhile, as I checked the radar, there wasn’t much happening in the Houston area this morning. This is because we’re beginning to feel the influence of high pressure, which will help suppress rain showers. That is not to say rain chances will be zero, but they will be much lower, on the order of 10 to 20 percent daily, with a few showers possibly popping up along the sea breeze.

High temperatures for much of Houston will likely rise into the low- to mid-90s for much of the region today. Skies will be partly sunny, with south winds at 5 to 10 mph. Overnight lows should drop into the upper 70s for most areas except the coast.

Tuesday

Conditions will be similar to Monday, although skies may appear to be a bit more hazy. This will be due to the influx of Saharan dust. This same dust has helped keep a lid on hurricane activity over the last week or two across the Atlantic basin. The spread of this dust typically peaks during July, and its decrease in August is one of the reason we typically see more hurricane activity in August and September.

Wednesday and Thursday

Both of these should be sunny days, with high temperatures in the mid-90s. We’ll continue to see some haze on Wednesday, although it may start to wane on Thursday.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Our mostly sunny pattern should continue into the weekend, when we see high temperatures in the mid- to possibly upper-90s by Saturday and Sunday. Atmospheric moisture levels could rise a bit, and this may introduce rain chances in the 20 percent range daily, but for the most part I expect these to be sunny days. If you have outdoor plans for this weekend they look, tentatively, pretty good expect for the heat. But what else would you expect in August, in terms of temperatures?