In brief: After a very cold period over the last 12 days, much milder weather is on the way for Houston. And with March just around the corner, I’m confident enough in the forecast to predict that the Houston metro area is done with freezes for the remainder of this winter and early spring.

February, a tale of two halves

The first 12 days of this month were incredibly warm in Houston, with several days of record high temperatures. Since then we have been mostly below normal for the region. So far this month, because of the blistering start to February, the average temperature is running about 2.5 degrees above normal.

It may have felt like spring had arrived at the beginning of the month, but if you’ll recall we warned you three weeks ago that winter was not yet over. And so it wasn’t. Well now, my friends, we can pretty confidently say that we’re not going to experience another cold spell like that again this season. From a climatological perspective winter does not end until March 1, but from a practical point of view, winter in Houston appears to be over.

Will it freeze again?

Probably not. In the Houston metro area, historically, there is about a 30 percent chance of a freeze after this point in the year. (It drops to 10 percent by March 18). However, because we can safely say there is not going to be a freeze at least over the next 10 days, I would say we are most likely done with freezes this season. So unless you live north of Conroe or in College Station, I’d feel pretty confident planting your gardens and setting tropical vegetation outside.

Monday

The moderate to dense fog we’re seeing this morning is one sign of warmer temperatures coming. Air temperatures and dewpoints this morning are virtually the same, in the upper-40s across the metro area. The fog will dissipate as temperatures rise, and we’re going toward highs in the upper 60s today. After the fog lifts we’ll see sunny skies, with light winds. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 40s again for most of Houston, with partly cloudy skies. We’ll likely see the development of some additional fog early on Tuesday morning.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These will be a pair of mostly sunny, pleasant days with high temperatures in the low 70s on Tuesday, and mid- to upper-70s on Wednesday. Both nights will see partly to mostly clear skies, with lows in the 50s.

Thursday and Friday

A weak front arrives to cool us down slightly for the end of the week. Although I think the frontal passage will be dry, I cannot guarantee it. Anyway, we should see partly sunny skies on Thursday in association with the front before sunny skies arrive on Friday. Highs will be around 70 degrees both days, and I expect slightly cooler nights in the upper 40s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks mild. There should be plenty of sunshine on Saturday, with highs in the low- to mid-70s, and a mild night in the 50s. (It should be nigh on perfect weather for Mardi Gras, so come see us in Galveston). By Sunday we’ll see an increasing chance of rain, but overall chances are probably less than 50 percent. We’ll see.

Next week

The first half of next week could be warmer as we slide into March, possibly with some highs reaching 80 degrees. A modest front likely cools us off by Wednesday or so, but again it may be the kind of thing where lows just drop back to around 50 degrees. We’ll see.

In brief: After a very cold end to this week, Houston begins to warm up this weekend. It’s possible some of this weekend’s rain begins as mixed rain and sleet tonight and Saturday morning, but no accumulation will occur. A decent rain for parts of the area this weekend will lead to quieter, warmer weather and patchy fog next week.

Yesterday ended up being the fourth coldest day of winter on an average temperature basis, with the high and low combining to average about 35 degrees. Our coldest day this winter was back during our January snowstorm, with a daily average of 32.5 degrees. One of the challenges with “daily average” is that if you have a high temperature at midnight, as we did on Wednesday, it doesn’t necessarily capture how the true day was. Whatever the case, it has been a cold finish to the week.

Today

This morning? Not quite as cold.

We were probably helped by some clouds that started to roll in after sunset. That said, it’s still chilly this morning, and with the cloud cover, temperatures will struggle again today. The forecast high is around 40 degrees, and there’s at least some chance we never get there and stay mired in the 30s all day. Bundle up.

Tonight: “Conversational” sleet?

Temperatures won’t go very far tonight; they’ll probably stay in the mid to upper-30s, rising a bit toward sunrise possibly. There is a chance of some light rain or drizzle both tonight and Saturday morning. With the cold, dry air mass still in place, I would not be at all surprised to see some of the precipitation fall as sleet in spots. It won’t accumulate, but this is the kind of setup that would periodically lead to you leaping out of your chair because you “thought you heard pinging outside.” And indeed, you’d look and see some ice pellets falling or a small gathering of them in your gutters. Whatever the case, conversational wintry precip is possible tonight and early on tomorrow, but again no real accumulation will occur.

Rest of Saturday and Sunday

As Saturday progresses, onshore flow continues, and temperatures warm we will see more and more scattered showers develop (no more sleet). A few heavier showers or even some non-severe thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon, especially south and east of Houston. That continues into tomorrow night and Sunday before the whole thing shifts east of the area by midday Sunday, leading to some gradual clearing.

All told, this should be a good soaking for coastal areas in particular. As you go north and west of the city, rain totals will sharply drop off to under an inch and probably around or under than a half-inch from Conroe through Columbus. Sunday’s high temperatures will bounce back into the 50s.

Monday through Wednesday

We are going to head back to spring next week, with a big warm up Monday (upper-60s to near 7), Tuesday (low to mid-70s), and Wednesday (mid to upper-70s). We should see sunshine return as well in this time. There will probably be some locally dense fog Monday morning, so just be aware of that. And with warm weather after a decent cool spell, you can almost guarantee that sea fog will return to coastal areas for at least a time next week.

Our next cold front looks to arrive sometime Thursday with just a slight cooldown for us. No sign of additional freezing temperatures is showing up in the forecast. But, as it goes, things can always change. We’ll continue to watch.

In brief: Houston is seeing some of its coldest weather of the season this morning, but the good news is that we are going to get no colder than this. Also, some places across the state are much colder this morning. We’ll experience a slow warming trend into the weekend, with a rainy Saturday, before spring arrives next week.

Cold status

As anticipated, much of the Houston region has seen temperatures fall to between 25 and 30 degrees this morning, with only the coast remaining at or just above freezing. Daytime temperatures on Wednesday were colder than expected, hovering around the freezing mark all day, but persistent clouds overnight helped prevent lows from dropping too severely this morning. We have one more freezing night in Houston before nights become a little bit warmer.

Thursday

High pressure continues to reign over the region. And while that means sultry temperatures in the summer here in Houston, during the winter it typically means we’re seeing cold air advection from the north. With mostly cloudy skies this morning we will be slow to warm, although most of the region should reach above freezing by around noon today. Highs will generally be in the mid- to upper-30s for most, although some far inland areas may only briefly reach above-freezing this afternoon. At least winds will be lessening, as gusts finally die down later today. Expect another cold night, with temperatures 1 to 3 degrees warmer than Wednesday night.

Friday

This will be a mostly cloudy and cold day, with highs in the upper 30s to 40 degrees. Temperatures won’t fall much on Friday night, with lows in the upper 30s.

Saturday

I’m afraid the first half of the weekend looks rather dreary. Temperatures on Saturday should, at least, push into the mid- to upper-40s. But we’re going to see continued cloudy skies, and a coastal low is going to bring a healthy chance of rain into the area. The most likely time for rain will be Saturday after noon, Saturday night, and Sunday morning. In terms of accumulations, most areas are looking at 0.5 to 1.5 inch. So I don’t anticipate severe storms, just some cold and unpleasant rain. Lows on Saturday night should fall into the low- to mid-40s for most locations.

Sunday

After a potentially wet start, Sunday may see a few breaks in the clouds during the later afternoon hours. Expect high temperatures in the mid- to upper-50s, with lows on Sunday night in the 40s.

Next week

Sunshine arrives on Monday, and we should see a pleasant week with highs in the 70s, generally, and lows in the 50s. Just as we’re pushing up toward 80 degrees mid-week, a weak front may arrive by Wednesday or so to cool us down slightly. But it’s all going to feel fairly spring-like, and the sunshine should be grand. Early next week we’ll take a look at whether we’re done with freezes in Houston for this year, but I think the answer is that we likely are after this week.

In brief: After Tuesday’s mild weather, winter is back on the menu this morning and it’s a feast for all. With gusty winds today it will feel cold all day and night. By early Thursday morning temperatures should fall below freezing for all of the metro area, with the possible exception of the immediate coast. Thursday night into Friday morning will be nearly as cold.

Cold and gusty

Be sure and bundle up before heading outside this morning. Air temperatures are generally in the mid- to upper-30s across the metro area. However, with northerly winds at about 20 mph, and gusts of 30 mph or higher, it feels considerably colder. These strong winds will be with us for most of today, so it will be brisk all day long. Fortunately the precipitation is over so we have no concerns about ice or anything like that on roads for the next couple of days.

Our biggest concern will be cold, with a light freeze likely for most of the Houston metro area, and a hard freeze (25 degrees, or below) is possible for inland areas, including The Woodlands and Katy. This freeze should be less impactful than the one we experienced earlier this winter, when temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees colder. Statewide, much of Texas will be in a deep freeze. However, ERCOT forecasts that sufficient electricity should be available.

Wednesday

Wind chills are in the teens across much of Houston this morning, and we’ll be slow to warm up with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Eventually temperatures should reach the upper-40s this afternoon, but I don’t expect these gusty winds to die down before this evening, or even the overnight hours. With partially clear skies and lesser winds, tonight should bring the coldest temperatures for Houston. The map below shows the best estimate for minimum temperatures on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Thursday

Although the winds will be lighter, we can still see some gusts of 15 or 20 mph on Thursday morning, so when you add the wind chill on top of frigid air temperatures, we’re looking at wind chills in the teens again. So another morning to really bundle up before heading outside. Skies will be sunny on Thursday, so that will be nice. (And it’s probably our last sustained sunshine until Sunday afternoon or Monday, so soak it up). But it will still be cold, in the mid-40s. Expect another cold night, with temperatures perhaps 1 or 2 degrees warmer than Wednesday night.

Friday

Clouds will build back in, making for a very chilly day. Expect highs to maybe only top out at about 40 degrees. Fortunately, with the thick clouds, temperatures won’t fall much on Friday night.

Saturday

We’ll start to warm up on Saturday, but the proximity of a low over the Gulf of Mexico will bring a healthy chance of showers into the forecast for Saturday during the day, and likely well into the evening. I don’t think these will be particularly impactful rains, but with air temperatures generally in the vicinity of 50 degrees on Saturday, any light to moderate showers will be cold and unwelcome. Lows on Saturday night drop into the mid-40s.

Sunday

Some light showers may linger into Sunday morning, but by the afternoon I expect to see some partially clearing skies. Temperatures will be warmer, with highs in the low 60s. This should lead to a period of mostly sunny skies.

Next week

Spring is in full bloom next week, with highs generally in the 70s and lows in the 50s. We should see plenty of sunshine. A weak front may move in toward the end of the work week, but at this point it does not appear as though there will be much of a cold air push with it.