Tropical update: Beryl becomes a major hurricane as it nears Caribbean, but its long-term future is uncertain

In brief: This tropical update has been cross-posted from our companion site The Eyewall. Although we do not yet have major concerns about direct impacts to Texas from Beryl, it is not out of the question that the storm could get into the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend. Since we have been receiving a lot of questions about Beryl, here’s what we know right now.

Overview

As of late morning on Sunday, the tropical Atlantic remains very active for the end of June. In addition to Beryl, there are a couple of systems the National Hurricane Center is monitoring for potential development. We’ll comment on those at the end of this post, but our primary focus today is the rapidly developing Beryl, which as of 10:35 am CT is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane.

The tropics are super busy for late June. (National Hurricane Center)

Hurricane Beryl this week

Thanks to warm seas, the system has intensified during the last 24 hours from a 50-mph tropical storm into a powerful 130-mph hurricane as it nears the Windward Islands. It should then cross these islands on Monday and move into the Caribbean Sea. The storm will likely remain sufficiently south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to preclude serious damage there, but it could threaten Jamaica on Wednesday and Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula toward the end of the week. After that? Movement into the Gulf of Mexico is possible, but after this point our confidence starts to decrease.

Confidence is high in Beryl’s track for the next few days. (National Hurricane Center)

In terms of intensity, additional strengthening of Beryl is likely over the next 24 hours or so as Beryl traverses very warm seas and is encountering relatively little wind shear. The National Hurricane Center forecasts a peak strength of 140 mph sustained winds by Monday morning, when the storm passes near islands including Grenada, Barbados, St. Lucia, and Martinique. These locations should prepare for the most intense wind and surge impacts beginning after midnight tonight, and lasting through at least Monday morning. Localized rain totals of 6 to 12 inches are possible. This is a very serious situation, and residents should prepare accordingly.

European model forecast for maximum wind gusts due to Beryl through Wednesday morning. (Weather Bell)

As it moves into the Caribbean Sea on Monday and Tuesday, Beryl should encounter moderately stronger wind shear, and this probably will cause some weakening. But the jury is very much out on how much weakening will occur before Beryl approaches Jamaica on Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center forecasts the system having sustained winds of 120 mph at that time, but this is just a reasonable guess. By Thursday night or Friday, as the center approaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, it’s likely that Beryl will weaken a little bit further. It will still likely bring hurricane-force winds to these locations sometime between late Thursday night and Friday night, in addition to heavy rainfall.

Hurricane Beryl this weekend

Our certainty about Beryl’s track begins to fade by the weekend. From now through Friday, a fairly strong high pressure system should continue to push the storm westward. Over the weekend and into early next week, it is possible this ridge continues to steer Beryl westward into the Bay of Campeche. (It is not clear how much interaction with the Yucatan would disrupt Beryl’s circulation, but some weakening is virtually certain). In this scenario, Beryl is likely to move across the southern Gulf of Mexico and plow into the east coast of the Mexican mainland, similar to Tropical Storm Alberto about 10 days ago.

Super-ensemble forecast for Hurricane Beryl. (Tomer Burg)

However, there is also the possibility that this ridge weakens, somewhat. At this point, this remains a lesser likelihood when we look at the global models. Still, there is a non-zero chance that Beryl turns northwestward after encountering the Yucatan Peninsula. In such a scenario a tropical system—be it a tropical storm or hurricane—could come to the Texas or even Louisiana coast late next weekend. I understand that everyone would like to have absolute answers about whether this will happen, but we just don’t have that kind of certainty right now.

Bottom line: Direct Texas impacts are within the realm of probability from Beryl, but the odds remain fairly low. We can see this distribution of possibilities when we look at the “super ensemble” track of forecasts for Beryl, which favors the ridge holding strong. We should know more about this part of Beryl’s forecast by Monday or Tuesday, and of course we’ll remain on top of that.

Invest 94L

There is still a short window for this tropical disturbance over the southern Gulf of Mexico to develop on Sunday before it likely moves inland into Mexico on Monday. The primary threat from Invest 94L is heavy rains in southern Mexico and Central America, which saw similar impacts from Alberto just 10 days ago. Regardless of whether this system develops further or not, the effects will be the same. There will be no impacts for Texas.

European model forecast for accumulated precipitation from Invest 94L through Tuesday morning. (Weather Bell)

Invest 96L

The third area of tropical interest is trailing Hurricane Beryl by a few days as it traverses the open Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm during the next week, and at this point it seems likely to impact the Windwards Islands in a similar location. This could happen as soon as Wednesday, and could deliver an awful second whammy.

However, I have some questions about how much Beryl will perturb the ocean and atmosphere, and this could help to mitigate the strengthening of this tropical disturbance as it nears the Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. We will be keeping a close eye on the system, in any case.

Hazy, hot, and humid weather offers us a taste of high summer in Houston

In brief: The main story over the next week will be heat, with high to periodically extreme conditions for the Houston area. Shower and storm chances will diminish but probably never get to zero. Saharan dust should show up this weekend before declining. And the tropics are busy with stuff to watch but no serious concerns for us at this moment.

Today through Sunday

As high pressure begins to expand over Texas, somewhat reminiscent of what happened last summer, the spigot should temporarily shut off here in Houston. We can’t rule out an isolated shower in the area, but the coverage of rain is going to diminish. The main story through the weekend will be heat. Heat advisories are in effect today and will likely be in effect tomorrow as well. Highs will be well into the 90s to near 100 in spots. Morning lows will be around 80 degrees.

Sunday will be interesting as a plume of Saharan dust arrives in Texas. We’ll see hazy skies which won’t help a ton with the temperature, but it may lead to a slight decrease in how bad it feels outside. Here’s the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) outlook for the next week, and you can see the slight dip on Sunday from “extreme” levels to “high” levels.

Wet bulb globe temperatures will test “extreme” levels today and tomorrow before a slight respite on Sunday. Back at it next week. (Weather Bell)

Remember, WBGT is a good, objective measure of how intense the combination of heat, humidity, wind, sun, and more is on the human body. Extreme levels, which we frequently hit last summer indicate heat where everyone should take precautions, even hardy Houstonians. High levels are more typical in Houston throughout summer. So, just take it easy this weekend.

Next week

The forecast is somewhat on autopilot for most of next week. High pressure should stay in tact, centered to our north or northeast most of the week, keeping us plenty hot, but never sending rain chances to zero. They will be quite low on several days though. Expect highs in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees with lows in the 70s to near 80 degrees; a very “high summer” feel for early July.

Fourth of July

At this point, it would seem that most plans should be good to go. We can’t rule out a shower, of course, but anything severely disruptive seems unlikely. Just make sure you’re hydrated (with water) and able to cool off. Evening festivities will probably see temperatures drop from the 90s into the upper-80s. Call it about a 10 percent chance of a shower or storm right now, but we encourage you to check back Monday for the latest.

Tropics

We continue to monitor Invest 95L, which is almost certainly going to become a depression or tropical storm by the end of the weekend. We have daily updates at The Eyewall, our companion site, and we will continue to provide those all weekend.

Invest 95L in the central Atlantic is likely to develop into a tropical depression or storm this weekend. It will likely impact the Lesser Antilles by early next week before possibly weakening a bit. (NOAA NHC)

For now, we expect this to be a concern for the Lesser Antilles before it gets disrupted by land or the usual shenanigans present in the eastern Caribbean in early July. From there, all bets are off, but a general west or slightly north of west motion should continue toward Central America or the Yucatan. It is not a serious concern for us in Houston right now, but we’ll be watching it closely to see if anything changes.

The other system moving into the Bay of Campeche this weekend (Invest 94L) will move into Mexico with no impacts for us in Houston or Texas.

Another chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, but the weekend looks hotter and hazy

In brief: We’ll have a couple of more afternoons where some scattered showers will be likely, bringing a bit of welcome rain and briefly cooler temperatures. By this weekend we’ll be pushing the upper 90s, with the chance of hitting 100 degrees for the first time this year in Houston. Also, skies will be hazy due to Saharan dust.

Thursday

Today will have a similar setup to Wednesday, when we saw the development of some scattered thunderstorms across central and some southern parts of the region (mostly) during the afternoon hours. Again we’ll be on the periphery of high pressure, allowing for the seabreeze and daytime heating to do some work.

Rain chances this afternoon are probably about 30 percent, and some areas could see as much as half an inch of rain beneath stronger thunderstorms. Highs will depend on the extent of showers in your locality, but I still expect much of the region to get up into the mid-90s. Winds will be very light, from the southeast at maybe 5 mph. Lows tonight will only drop to about 80 degrees.

Friday

A similar day to Thursday, although perhaps with slightly less rain coverage. Highs again will push into the mid-90s for the most part, with light southerly winds.

Could we see some 100s in the Houston area by Sunday? Yes. (Weather Bell)

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks very warm as high pressure becomes a little bit more dominant. Rain chances will go down, close to zero percent on Saturday, and maybe 20 percent or so on Sunday. Daytime highs on Saturday will be in the mid- to upper-90s, and then on Sunday some locations could reach 100 degrees for the first time this year. Please take heat precautions if you’re going to be outside during the middle of the day this weekend.

In addition, we’ll see the influx of Saharan dust, which will produce hazy conditions over the Houston region this weekend. For most people this won’t have significant effects, but it could make sunsets more brilliant.

Next week

Monday will be very hot, bringing the region another chance to hit 100 degrees. There also will be a limited chance of rain showers, perhaps 20 percent. Most of next week should be similar, although slightly cooler. Expect highs in the mid- to upper-90s for the most part, with isolated to scattered showers during the afternoon hours along the seabreeze.

Here come the Atlantic tropics. (National Hurricane Center)

Atlantic tropics

After a (very) brief lull following Tropical Storm Alberto, the Atlantic tropics are starting to come to life. The deep Atlantic seems to be heating up earlier than normal, likely due to the excessively warm temperatures in the main development region of the ocean. We’re starting to see a more active African “wave train,” which is the source of the majority of hurricanes during the Atlantic season. Typically this does not get going for at least another month, but here we are.

There are a couple of active systems, but the one to watch is the trailing disturbance, shown in red on the map above, known as “Invest 95L.” (Invest simply stands for “area of investigation”). We’ll be providing deeper coverage of this system on The Eyewall, but what I would say right now is that there’s a low-end chance this disturbance eventually reaches the Gulf of Mexico in about 10 days time. Really, it’s not something I’d be too concerned about. But we’re keeping an eye on it, just in case.

The SCW Q&A: Physics vs. AI; hype or reality; potential cyclones; tornado or not; our day jobs are safe

Houston may be settling into its summer weather doldrums, but let’s face it: In June, the skies over the region were a happenin’ place. As happens this time of the month, Eric and Matt have cracked open their inboxes and answered your queries.

Got a burning question of your own? Smash the Feedback button in the blog’s sidebar, respond here with a comment or talk to us on our socials: X, Facebook, Instagram, Threads, Mastodon, Bluesky and LinkedIn.

Q. So I’m curious which model actually panned out (regarding TS Alberto). Was it the regular models or the AI models? I remember it being mentioned that there were some differences between them a few days ago.

Thanks for the question. We took a look at this in the immediate aftermath of Alberto, and in terms of track the physics-based models significantly outperformed most of the AI-models. Essentially, some of the AI models wanted to bring the tropical system much further north into the Gulf of Mexico (toward Texas) whereas the traditional models kept it bottled up in the Southern Gulf, which is what ultimately happened.

I’ve also been looking at the AI guidance more frequently for non-storm events and so far I’m not convinced it’s any better (or even as good as) the physics-based models. Of course this is just my personal experience. The best way to determine the value of these new models will be using rigorous, comparative studies of what the models predicted across a range of variables against what ultimately happened. Now that the AI forecasts are coming out in real time, those kinds of studies can be done. I look forward to seeing the results in the coming months and we’ll be sure and share any interesting findings here.

–Eric

Q: Is the news media hurricane prediction for 2024 hype or more on the real side? I am debating getting a generator, but don’t want to buy into the hype if that’s what it is.

A: It’s certainly not hype. But you have to look at it logically. The data almost unanimously suggests that this should about as active a hurricane season as we could have. Thus, the seasonal forecasts are all quite bullish on hurricane development.

Colorado State has a generally good track record with seasonal forecast predictions, so their bullish outlook for 2024 has raised eyebrows and alarm in some circles. (Colorado State)

In fact, one thing we did at our companion site The Eyewall back in early June was to expand on ways that the active hurricane season forecasts could bust. The reality is that it could bust. Absolutely. Would that mean the preseason forecasts were all hype? As a scientist, I will tell you certainly not. As a member of the public, I get why you’d have that opinion though. So we encourage people to look at the decisions they make with regard to seasonal hurricane forecasts with nuance.

Were you probably going to get a generator anyway? We’ve had far more events non-tropics related that have caused extensive power outages in our area in recent years. Just consider the whole picture. And in this case consider a busted forecast a good thing if it happens.

–Matt

Q. Why is Potential Tropical Cyclone One not called “Tropical Depression One”? I thought a storm was called a tropical depression before it became a tropical storm?

It’s all a bit confusing, isn’t it? But the intent here by the National Hurricane Center is good. A “Potential Tropical Cyclone” is sometimes issued before a tropical system becomes a ‘depression’ or a ‘tropical storm.’ This happens when a system could bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land within 48 hours.

Essentially, forecasters from the hurricane center do this when they want to highlight the threat of a tropical system to land, but that system has not yet formed. Why do this? Because sometimes a tropical storm does not intensify until very shortly before landfall, at which point formal warnings are often too late to be actionable. The hurricane center started doing this in 2017, and you can find more information here.

–Eric

Q: Curious to know how the NWS determines if a tornado occurred and categorizes it after the event? Is it based on eyewitness accounts, damage, etc?

A: There are a few ways to confirm a tornado has occurred. Some larger tornadoes have “tornadic debris signatures” on radar, where you can see the radar showing you lofted debris from tornado damage. The most obvious and easiest way to suspect a tornado is eyewitness accounts.

But sometimes well-meaning people think something is a tornado when it is not. That’s why the NWS usually sends out a survey team to go investigate damage after a storm if a tornado is suspected. They can combine spotter or eyewitness accounts with radar data to determine exactly where to look for tornado damage. Generally speaking, if the damage is all pointed in one direction, that’s a tell-tale sign of straight line winds, or a microburst/downburst, not a tornado.

But if the damage is more chaotic or pointed down in different directions, that’s a probable sign of a tornado. This page from the NWS in Binghamton, NY shows sort of how they go about this process.

Rating the tornado’s intensity is another matter. There is some subjectivity involved, but in general, the damage indicators as provided in the Enhanced Fujita scale provide a decent categorization for a tornado.

–Matt

Q. You are all hype. I thought your website was dedicated to providing weather insight for Houston without the hype but your Stage 2 flooding article was all hype!! Don’t quit your day job!

A. Let me put your weary and worried mind at ease: we won’t be quitting our day jobs. My day job is writing about space exploration for Ars Technica. Matt is a meteorologist for an energy company in Houston. Would you believe that Space City Weather is hobby for both of us, a second job we do to try and help the community?

I do think it is useful to revisit our thinking about issuing a Stage 2 flood alert on Sunday, June 16. Here’s the post, which we published at 9:53 a.m. Note that this was Father’s Day, and Matt and I spent a couple of hours that morning strategizing, thinking, and writing about the forecast. I mention that just so you understand we’re pretty dedicated to this stuff.

That morning we actually gave some thought to issuing a Stage 3 warning for coastal areas, but I decided it was best to hold back for a time. At the time some of the modeling was rather dire (showing upwards of 20 inches of rain across parts of Houston in some instances). The ‘official’ precipitation forecast from NOAA showed a bullseye of 12 inches of rain just south of Houston, and the flood threat was very real for coastal areas. In any case, we felt it was time to raise the alarm about the potential for significant flooding in the Houston region for the coming week. So we pulled the trigger.

NOAA rainfall accumulation forecast issued on Father’s Day morning. (Weather Bell)

Some uncertainty definitely remained—we caveated our forecast with the following statement, “Our forecast modeling remains a bit split as to whether the heaviest rain will fall near Galveston, or further south closer to the Coastal Bend.” The latter is precisely what happened.

In forecasting, you win some, and you lose some. All we can really do is to try and do our best, and that’s just what we do here.

–Eric