In brief: Today’s post discusses the strong cold front in the cards less than a week from today, as well as what to expect before then. We also take a peek at the tropics, where a major hurricane could form in the Caribbean. It’s no threat to Texas, but even so, it’s mid-November. And finally, we’re launching our annual fundraiser. Buy merch! Support us!

Launch of annual fundraiser

This is a big morning for us, as we’re launching our annual fundraiser. I don’t like to ask for money, but it costs a lot to operate a website; develop, update, and support an app; and pay for all of our other activities. And we don’t do this often, just for a few weeks in November each year. This is your opportunity to directly support our hard work, and efforts to provide accurate information, without hype, to the greater Houston region. If you don’t have extra money, please do not feel pressure to give. But if you can help, we’d greatly appreciate it. You’re ensuring our work is freely available to all.

Click here to find how to donate or purchase items to support Space City Weather.

Wednesday

Most of Houston has fallen into the upper 50s or lower 60s this morning. With moderate humidity levels, we will see highs push into the low- to mid-80s this afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny, with light westerly winds. By this evening we’ll see the arrival of a cool front that will usher in drier air from the northwest. No rain is expected with the front. This will help low temperatures drop into the 50s overnight.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of fine, sunny days with high temperatures in the low- to mid-70s, and sunny skies. With dewpoints in the 40s, it really will not feel humid at all. Lows will bottom out on Thursday night, with temperatures dropping into the upper 40s for outlying areas, and lower 50s in central Houston by Friday morning—so pretty chilly. Friday night is a bit warmer, but temperatures should still drop well into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

As the onshore flow resumes we’ll see a few clouds on Saturday, and partly cloudy skies on Sunday. Highs for the first half of the weekend will reach the upper 70s, and top out at about 80 degrees by Sunday. Humidity levels will be on the rise, but not oppressively so. There will still be a bit of a chill in the air on Saturday night, but it will be long gone by Sunday night. A few light showers will be possible by Sunday evening, but I think rain will hold off for the most part until early Monday.

Next week

Monday and Monday night will be warm and muggy, with a pretty good chance of light showers. (Don’t expect much in the way of accumulations beyond a few tenths of an inch of rain). Some time on Tuesday, most likely, a fairly strong fronts will push into Houston. It’s still too early to have details on the precise timing, but all available evidence points to a fairly robust front with a strong northerly flow behind it.

It would not shock me to see a few nights in the 40s during the second half of next week, with daytime highs in the 60s. This really will be sweater weather, and our first real indication this season that winter is around the corner. As a bonus, it seems unlikely that we’re going to bounce back up into the 80s a few days after the front. The overall pattern looks to remain cooler, and more seasonable.

Tropics

I want to be clear: the tropical system developing in the Caribbean Sea is no threat to Texas whatsoever. However it appears increasingly likely that a (relatively rare) November hurricane will develop in the Caribbean Sea this weekend, which is likely to bring significant rainfall to parts of Central America. Much of our modeling guidance suggests it will become a major hurricane.

Long term this storm could move into the southern Gulf of Mexico before perhaps turning toward Florida in several days—although there’s plenty of uncertainty about what happens next week. We have a lot of time to watch it, and that’s just what we’re doing on The Eyewall.

In brief: Today’s update discusses a decent front in the cards for Wednesday which will bring a nice cooldown, and then looks at a warmer setup for this weekend. Overall, things look pretty calm. We also talk about Matt’s new job.

A few words on Matt’s new job

In addition to working on Space City Weather, both Matt and I have day jobs. I write about space for Ars Technica, and for the last decade Matt has been a meteorologist for Cheniere Energy. On Monday, Matt announced that he was changing jobs, and we wanted to explain what the change means for Space City Weather. The short version is, nothing.

The longer version is that Matt is starting a new position as Manager of Meteorology at CenterPoint Energy. We see this is as a win-win for readers. Why? Because Matt is still going to be free to do all of this regular forecasting for Space City Weather and The Eyewall. CenterPoint recognizes that these sites are an important part of Matt’s life, and this was a condition of his taking the job. Moreover CenterPoint (and by extension, the greater Houston area) will benefit from his expertise. Basically, better forecasting should mean that CenterPoint is better prepared for inclement weather events.

Nothing changes here. Space City Weather has been sponsored exclusively by Reliant for more than seven years now, and that partnership will continue. As always, Reliant has a completely hands-off policy when it comes to editorial content here. (They’ve been tremendous about that). And Matt’s position at CenterPoint will not influence the site’s coverage during severe weather and power outages. Anyway, we just wanted to be transparent with our readers. I have only one real editor on this site, and I’m married to her.

Finally, we both want to thank Cheniere for their support of Matt’s work with the sites during his time there.

Tuesday

It’s a cooler morning, with most of the area in the upper 50s to lower 60s thanks to a northerly flow. Today will be sunny and pleasant, with high temperatures of about 80 degrees, and lower humidity. Winds will generally be light, from the northeast. Low temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight, with most of the area dropping into the lower 60s.

Wednesday

As the onshore flow picks up, we’ll see a slightly warmer day with a tinge more humidity. Expect highs in the low- to mid-80s, with mostly sunny skies. A front will arrive on Wednesday afternoon, but I don’t think there will be enough moisture in the atmosphere to support more than very isolated showers. Lows drop to around 60 degrees overnight as the front pushes in.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work will feel fine and fall-like, with sunny skies and high temperatures generally in the mid-70s. Drier air will knock humidity away. Both nights should get into the 50s in Houston, with some inland areas falling into the upper 40s on Friday morning. Skies will be clear day and night.

Saturday and Sunday

The onshore flow will be back for the weekend, which means the return of some humidity, and probably at least some partly cloudy skies. Highs both days will reach about 80 degrees, or perhaps a tick higher, with mild nights in the 60s. Rain chances are virtually zero on Saturday, and perhaps 10 to 20 percent on Sunday when there is more moisture in the atmosphere to work with.

Next week

The early part of next week will see continued warmer weather, with highs generally in the low-80s, along with a 20 or 30 percent chance of daily showers. A significant pattern change looks to be in the cards by mid-week, however, when a stronger fall front arrives with possibly some sticking power. We’ll discuss this more tomorrow, when we should have more confidence in the forecast. But I’m hopeful.

In brief: Houston will see calm weather this week, with highs in the 70s and 80s, and some marginally cooler nights. If you’re looking ahead to the weekend, you can be pretty sure we’re going to see a warm and fairly humid pattern, with some slight rain chances. It definitely won’t feel like we’re heading toward Thanksgiving.

A thank you to Veterans everywhere

Today is Veterans Day, a federal holiday to honor everyone who has served in the US Armed Forces. This includes my dad and father-in-law—both of whom served in Vietnam and bore scars as a result—and several uncles. We take freedom for granted as Americans, but as one looks around the world, it is clear that there is no human right to our freedoms of expression, assembly, press, and more. We must continue to guard them, and those who serve in the armed forces are on the front line. So, thank you. If you’re participating in a Veterans Day ceremony today there are no weather concerns, even today’s highs in the lower 80s should feel fine with slightly lower humidity.

Monday

We’re seeing a drier, northerly flow this morning and it has helped to push low temperatures down into the low- to mid-60s for much of the region. We’ll see mostly sunny skies for much of today, and this will boost high temperatures into the lower 80s. As noted above, however, with a modicum of drier air it won’t feel super humid outside. Winds will be light, from the north or northeast. Lows tonight will drop to about 60 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Tuesday

Expect another sunny day, with highs of around 80 degrees. As the onshore flow resumes later in the day we’ll see a slightly warmer night, with lows in the mid-60s.

Wednesday

This day will be a little more humid, with at least partly cloudy skies, and high temperatures likely slotting in the mid-80s. We cannot entirely rule out rain chances, but they’re likely only on the order of 10 percent or so. Lows on Wednesday night will probably drop into the the mid-60s.

Thursday and Friday

Our weather for the back-end of the work week will be determined by the strength of a front that arrives on Wednesday night. Some of our guidance is pretty bullish on cooler air behind the front, but others not so much. Given the overall pattern, I’m inclined to favor the warmer outcome as the most likely—even if it is the less desirable one for most of us. In any case, these should be partly to mostly sunny days with highs in the upper 70s. Lows will depend on the amount of cooler air behind the front, but I’m hopeful that most of the region will get into the upper 50s at least on Thursday and Friday nights. We’ll see.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Humidity washes back onshore with a southerly flow this weekend. That means we’re likely to see highs in the low-80s, with warm nights and partly sunny skies. I’m inclined to believe this is probably the last really warm and muggy weekend we’ll see this year—that is to say, with highs pushing toward the mid-80s—but it’s been such a hot year I’m making no guarantees. Each weekend day will probably have a low-end rain chance, on the order of 20 percent. This warmer pattern persists until around Wednesday or so, when we may finally see a bonafide fall front. However, it’s still about nine days out, so …

In brief: This post offers a look back at our very warm fall, and asks whether this warmer pattern is likely to carry over into the winter. Spoiler: the answer is most likely yes. However that doesn’t entirely preclude one or two sharp cold snaps this winter. At the end of the post, be sure and check out some winterization tips for your home from our partner, Reliant.

So far this fall in Houston has not felt very fall-like, especially the daytime temperatures. I did a little bit of digging this morning, and found that in all of its records dating back more than 120 years, Houston has never had a fall this warm, at least through early November. In this case, I’m defining fall in the meteorological sense, the months of September, October, and November.

This year, the average high temperature from September 1 to November 7 has been 90.7 degrees. In case you were wondering, no, the average high temperature for this period has never been above 90 degrees before in Houston. The graphic below, for simplicity’s sake, only shows the average high in Houston since 1970, when the city’s official temperature station moved to Bush Intercontinental Airport. But the bottom line is that, in our recorded history, Houston has never been this hot during the fall. And yes, this is the type of pattern we would expect in a warming world.

The question then, is this: If fall has been so warm, can we have any expectation of a meaningful winter? Will it snow? Will it freeze? Here, then, is our winter outlook for the period of December, January, and February.

Winter outlook

We’ll start with La Niña, since forecasters are fairly confident that at least a modest cooling of the Pacific equatorial waters will set in during the coming months. The threshold for La Niña is -0.5 degrees C, and this is expected to persist during the winter months.

When we see La Niña developing during the winter months for the northern hemisphere, that tends to have fairly predictable effects for the United States. In Texas that means warmer-than-normal temperatures and drier weather. Essentially, we can expect more of the fairly shallow fronts that Houston has experienced so far this fall, with only glancing blows of cooler air.

In terms of precipitation, this generally calmer pattern should also lead to lower-than-normal rainfall. That’s not ideal, since parts of our area are still in a moderate drought. However, our rains over the last week, and additional showers this weekend, leave us in a lot better posture than we were before. The bottom line is that we can generally expect a mild and dry winter.

However—and there’s always a but in meteorology, it seems—there is one caveat to this forecast. Because of the way this pattern sets up, it will block much of the colder Arctic and Canadian air from the lower United States for most of the winter. But that does not exclude the pattern breaking one or two times. If that happens, and it probably will at least once this winter, there will be a large pool of much colder air available to dip down into the southern United States, including Texas.

So just because we anticipate a mild winter, it does not necessary mean we won’t see a freeze, or even a hard freeze with some freezing rain or snow from an Arctic blast. Finally, since I know someone is going to ask it, no the landfall of Hurricane Beryl this summer does not necessarily mean it’s going to snow this winter. We looked into that old wives’ tale a few years ago, and found the odds of snow in a post-hurricane winter are perfectly identical to the odds of snow in any other winter. On average we snow about once every four years.

A message from Reliant

Now is a great time to prepare your home for cooler seasons and prioritize HVAC and home maintenance. Similar to summer, a few conscious choices can make a big difference in your winter electricity bill.

These simple home improvement projects can be done now before winter arrives:

• Get an annual heater tune-up. Make sure your furnace or heat pump is clean and in good working order, so that it can run as efficiently as possible.
• Seal air leaks, commonly around windows, doors, and attics. Weatherstrip exterior doors and add caulk to windows. This helps keep indoor air in and outdoor air out.
• Install an electric water heater timer. This can prevent your water heater from running when you don’t need it.
• Inspect insulation. The best way is to hire a professional to check the insulation throughout your house. If needed, add more to better regulate your home’s temperature and reduce heating costs.
• Have your chimney inspected. Plus, be sure to keep the chimney damper closed when it is not in use.

Reliant provides 24/7 support to customers via phone and online chat. Looking for more winter tips to lower your electricity bill? Visit reliant.com/wintertips.