In brief: A robust front will bring much drier air into the Houston region today, and a couple of chilly nights in the upper 40s. After that Houston will likely experience warmer weather for the rest of March: think 80s with some humidity rather than the 70s we’ve had for much of the month. Summer is not here, but it is on the horizon.

Wednesday

Temperatures across much of the metro area this morning are in the range of 65 to 70 degrees, which is rather warm for mid-March. It’s also fairly sticky outside. However, this will end later this morning, as a fairly strong front moves into the area. We’ll feel this both in the form of northwesterly winds, gusting up to 20 or 25 mph, as well as much drier air. As skies clear out later today, with the drier air, expect high temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees.

Unfortunately for rodeo-goers, those winds will not let up much this evening. In fact, they should peak during the overnight hours, perhaps gusting up to about 30 mph. So be prepared for that. Temperatures after the show will be in the 60s, before lows tonight ultimately drop into the mid- to upper 40s for much of the metro area away from the coast.

Thursday

This will be a sunny and pleasant day, with low humidity and highs of around 70 degrees. During the morning hours, at least, we should still see some modestly gusty winds. However by the afternoon these winds will likely slacken. Thursday night will be chilly again, with much of the region likely dropping into the upper 40s. Will this be the last time that parts of the Houston region get into the 40s this season? I think that’s quite possible.

Friday

Expect a sunny, pleasant day with highs in the mid-70s. Winds will turn southerly, gusting at times up to 20 mph. Expect overnight lows to only reach about 60 degrees with the warmer, southerly flow.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend brings more sunshine, with highs around 80 degrees. Dewpoints should still be in the 50s, so it will not feel too humid outside. Yet. Lows on Saturday night only drop into the mid-60s.

Sunday, Monday, and next week

With a more humid flow, expect temperatures to reach into the lower- to mid-80s on Sunday with likely increasing cloudiness. The question then is to what extent a slug of drier air will slide down from the northeast into the region. This is known as a “backdoor” front because instead of blowing down from the northwest, it edges in from the northeast. It’s likely that this system will generate a decent chance of rain, perhaps on the order of 50 percent during the period of Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Accumulations don’t look that high, probably on the order of tenths of an inch.

Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will depend on the extent to which the backdoor opens, and the amount of cooler and drier air that moves in. Perhaps we’ll have a couple of days in the 70s, with lows in the upper 50s. Maybe it will be a tad warmer. Most of the rest of next week should see highs in the 80s, however, with a decent amount of humidity. So it goes in Houston as we get nearer the end of March: fewer fronts and more humidity.

In brief: Expect winds to whipsaw across Houston for the next few days as we go from a southerly flow to a northerly flow and back to a southerly flow between now and Friday. Overall, temperatures continue to look mild, with Thursday looking to be a splendid day.

Tuesday

Low temperatures have only fallen to about 60 degrees this morning, and we are going to see warmer weather for a couple of days. The southerly flow will be especially pronounced today, with a tight pressure gradient causing winds to reach sustained levels of about 20 or 25 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph this afternoon. Highs will reach about 80 degrees this afternoon, with a few clouds developing later today.

If you’re headed out to the rodeo, you’ll want to hold on to your hat. Look, I realize I’ve already used that joke this year, but it’s been windy, ok? Although winds may slacken just a bit, they’re still going to be pronounced this evening, along with temperatures in the 70s. The influx of moisture will help keep overnight lows in the upper 60s.

Wednesday

Wednesday morning will be fairly warm and humid, with mostly cloudy skies. Winds should also have finally died down. But it won’t last as a front sweeps in from the northwest during the late-morning hours, likely reaching the coast around noon or shortly after. There is the barest chance of some rain along with the front on the east side of Houston, but I expect a dry passage for nearly all of us.

Highs will be in the upper 70s with sunny skies during the afternoon. And the winds—they’ll have reversed direction, and we can expect gusts of around 20 mph during the daytime, increasing to about 30 mph on Wednesday night. This will create “red flag” conditions for at least western areas of the region, meaning the winds and dry soils will be conducive to wildfires. With the drier air, lows will drop to around 50 degrees on Wednesday night in Houston.

Thursday

This looks to be a splendid day, as it lies in the period between a frontal passage and the return of the onshore flow. Look for highs of around 70 degrees, light winds, sunny skies, and low humidity. Lows on Thursday night will again drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for inland areas.

Friday

Another sunny day, with highs in the low 70s. However we’ll likely see some modestly strong southerly winds. Lows only drop into the lower 60s with the warmer southerly flow.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

After temperatures mostly in the 70s this week, this weekend and beyond will likely see a warmer pattern, with highs in the lower 80s. We may see one or two weak fronts in the extended forecast, but overall, we should see warmer days and mild nights. Alas there is not a huge signal for rainfall, which we could use right now.

In brief: This week will bring plenty of sunshine and wind as the region veers through spring. Highs most days will be in the range of 75 to 80 degrees, with some particularly nice weather expected on Thursday. The first half of the weekend looks sunny, but we could see some clouds by Sunday to go along with some slight rain chances.

Spring-time winds

The wind we experience at the surface is due to air moving from high pressure to low pressure, and the bigger the difference, the greater the breeze. During the summer in Houston, we often talk about the sea breeze. This is because the air over land heats up faster than water during the daytime, lowering the air pressure at the surface. (Warm air rises). Since the air pressure is lower at the surface over Houston, air moves in from the Gulf.

The winds we experienced on Saturday, as a cold front moved in, were different. They were moving from north to south, following the influx of a low pressure system (front) at the surface. The more rapid the pressure change, the stronger the wind. This is what we mean by a “tight” pressure gradient. I bring all of this up because we’re going to see several “tight” gradients this week that will lead to winds whipsawing back and forth across the area.

Monday

Sunday was an absolutely gorgeous day in Houston, certainly a top-10 day of the year. Monday will be similar, although not quite as nice (in my opinion, of course). Highs today will reach about 80 degrees with plenty of sunshine, but this will be marred by southerly winds of about 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph this afternoon.

If you’re heading out to the Houston rodeo this evening, or celebrating St. Patrick’s Day elsewhere, we have no weather concerns aside from the breeze. Temperatures this evening will be in the lower 70s, with clear skies. Lows will be in the upper 60s after the show, and with the warmer southerly flow we probably will only drop to around 60 degrees in Houston overnight. Some inland locations will be cooler.

Tuesday

This should be another mostly sunny day, with high temperatures near 80 degrees. But as the pressure gradient tightens, we’ll see some fairly strong southerly winds at 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 or possibly even 35 mph. This southerly flow will bring humidity back into the region, and give us a warm night in the 60s with increasing cloud cover.

Wednesday

High temperatures on Wednesday should reach around 80 degrees, or even a bit higher in Houston. This is because a cold front is likely to pass through the area during the late morning hours, bringing in drier air (which heats up more efficiently). Expect northwesterly winds during the afternoon, gusting up to 20 or 25 mph. Lows on Wednesday night will be around 50 degrees.

Thursday

At this point, Thursday looks to bring exceptional weather back into the forecast, with highs in the 70s, sunny skies, and light winds.

Friday

By Friday we’ll probably see offshore winds kicking back up, so expect a breezy day in the 70s with rising dewpoints.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

What does the weekend hold? Saturday should be mostly sunny, with highs of around 80 degrees. With a southerly flow in place expect a warm night, with lows in the 60s. As for Sunday, I’m a little less certain. We should see more clouds, highs around 80 degrees, and with increasing moisture there’s a possibility of some showers. (We could use some rain, but this isn’t going to do much to address drying soils I’m afraid). It’s likely that a weak front pushes into the area on Sunday night or Monday, but I’m not confident in the details.

In brief: Wildfire risk increases across Texas today and tomorrow as a dry, windy storm system impacts the state. After gusty winds and some fire risk locally on Saturday, things settle down for a few days. We discuss drought, heat, and what’s ahead today.

Big, hot, dry Texas

Houston officially hit 90 degrees yesterday for the first time in 2025. This is our earliest first 90 degree day since 1996, when we did it on February 22nd and the 5th earliest first 90 degree day on record. So yes, it’s quite early for this. The date of our first 90 degree day has been slowly moving forward over the years. It used to typically be in early to mid-May through the late 20th century, and now it’s usually in late April.

With the exception of the Matagorda Bay region, most of Greater Houston is not currently in drought this March. However, much of Texas is in drought, with that percentage hovering just above half the state. Areas of extreme and exceptional drought are expanding thanks to a year that has brought most of Texas below average rainfall, in some cases far, far below average.

Lately, we’ve begun seeing Plains storms with minimal moisture in Texas and strong winds. This combination continues to dry out soils across the state, which will lead to more drought and periodic potential dust storms across the state as well. It is also allowing for a ramp up in high wildfire risk days.

While we don’t need to worry much about wildfires in Houston proper right now because of our relative abundance of moisture this year compared to the rest of Texas, it is possible, if not likely that we will continue to see relatively frequent wildfire risk across the state and up into Oklahoma in the weeks ahead.

We can predict that your next question will be “what does this mean for summer?” And the answer is that it’s too soon to connect what we are seeing now with summer, or at least too soon to connect them closely. Could this mean a hotter and drier summer than usual? Maybe. But it’s not anything I’d be going to Vegas and betting on just yet. For the rest of spring, however, this drying and warming trend is a bit troubling for those hoping we could avoid drought expansion. Something to continue watching.

Today

While the wildfire risk is extreme to our west, here in Houston it will be breezy and at least a little humid today. Wildfire risk begins to ramp up as you go into and west of College Station where Red Flag Warnings begin. The risk is highest in Hill Country, the Permian, Caprock, Panhandle, and North Texas into Oklahoma. We should see decreasing clouds today with temperatures popping back into the mid-80s, if not upper-80s in spots.

If you’re headed to see Journey tonight at the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo, you’re in luck, as the weather will embrace you with open arms. Temperatures will ease back into and through the 70s, leading to a comfortable exit in the evening. Breezy conditions on Friday afternoon should settle down after sunset. No rain is expected.

Saturday

The cold front gets here around or just after sunrise on Saturday. I don’t want to entirely rule out a passing downpour or thunderstorm, but that currently looks to stay well to our north and east. Any rain or storms would be quick before exiting. We should then open up to sunshine after some lingering clouds. Severe weather risks on Saturday are quite significant to our east in eastern Louisiana and Mississippi, so if you’re returning from the eastern Gulf Coast as spring break ends, just keep that in mind on Saturday afternoon.

Winds will begin gusting around midday Saturday, not too dissimilar to what we saw early last week, with gusts perhaps as high as 40 or 45 mph possible by Saturday afternoon. Those winds will die off after sunset. In addition to the gusty winds, humidity levels will plummet, with dewpoints possibly dropping into the teens. It will be desert-like air with highs around 80 degrees.

Wildfire risk may be a bit higher closer to Houston on Saturday due to the winds and low humidity. While our soil moisture is in better shape than it is to our west, that fire risk is definitely not zero on Saturday afternoon and the aforementioned combination of wind and humidity may lead to a Red Flag Warning perhaps up to I-45. Conditions will improve after sunset.

Sunday and Monday

The rest of the weekend into Monday looks great. There should be ample sunshine and a bit less wind with highs in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s.

Rest of next week

Expect a warm up back into the 80s for the middle of next week ahead of a storm system in the Wednesday or Thursday timeframe. This one looks a bit weaker and farther north than this weekend’s system, so while we may turn breezy and have a chance of a shower or storm, the weather from that storm will probably be a little less crazy across Texas and the South. Still, we may need to discuss wildfire risk in parts of Texas next week yet again.