Eric and I kid with each other often because I personally hate September more than August, whereas most rational people hate August. My reason for hating September is exactly what is happening this year. We got teased with fake fall weather this week, and what’s coming next week looks kind of like “August-lite” type weather. Alas, it won’t be quite as miserable as a typical August, but any dreams of autumn breezes and cooler days are on hold.

Today

Yesterday, we got some showers to drop rain for coastal areas. Parts of Galveston saw just shy of an inch, and rural portions of Brazoria and Matagorda Counties saw 1 to 3 inches. We even saw some rain west of Rosenberg back into Wharton County.

Today’s rain will be more spread out I think. We are initially seeing some scattered showers this morning near Bolivar and along the coast. The focus should remain in those areas for awhile, but inland areas will at least have a shot at showers this afternoon. The guidance for today is that you probably won’t see rain, but if you’re one of the lucky ones that do, it could rain hard for a brief period of time. Highs will be in the 80s or low 90s.

Weekend

Saturday looks a lot like today, with an isolated shower or storm possible almost anywhere, though the focus will be near the coast again and most inland communities will remain rain-free. Sunday should see rain chances dwindle a bit, so even fewer places will see a shower or storm. Both days should be in the low-90s on average. Morning lows will be in the 70s, and winds this weekend should be out of the southeast around 5 to 15 mph, or a bit gusty over the water.

Next week

Second Summer is here. Monday through Wednesday won’t have zero rain chances, but they’ll be low. Look for a lot of sun and a lot of heat. After morning lows in the low-70s, we’re probably looking at successive days in the mid-90s.

Right now, it looks like the ridge over us will peak on Wednesday, but heat will linger into Thursday and Friday also. Record highs next week are generally 96-100 degrees, so we will be flirting on the lower end of that. Don’t look for much relief before next weekend. The earliest we could see our next cold front is probably not until sometime the week of the 26th.

Tropical Storm Fiona

Let’s talk about Fiona. I’ll answer the obvious question right away: Fiona is not expected to make it to Texas or the Gulf at this time. Still, it’s something to at least keep an eye on in case things change.

Fiona has a good bit of thunderstorm activity with it, but one thing is for sure: It’s lopsided, with most storms on the east side and very little on the west side. Thus, Fiona is one disorganized storm.

Fiona is expected to move into the northern half of the Lesser Antilles later today, bringing rain and gusty winds. It will then likely bring rough weather to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later tomorrow into Sunday.

Fiona currently has maximum winds of 50 mph. As it moves into the islands, it is not expected to strengthen a whole lot more. It may gather some steam later this weekend, but that’s a big question mark. The current National Hurricane Center forecast brings it to Hispaniola by Monday.

From Hispaniola, the forecast gets more difficult. A vast majority of models turn Fiona northwest or north at this point, eventually strengthening it enough near the Bahamas to turn it out to sea. However, given land interaction, it’s plausible to think Fiona will struggle a bit in the coming days. Personally, Matt is leaning toward Fiona following the southern fringe of the NHC cone above. This still turns it more northwest near Cuba, but maybe not as soon as we’d like. On the flip side, it’s possible to think there’s enough land interaction to weaken Fiona substantially at some point, perhaps to the point of no return. But never count any system out in September in the southwest Atlantic or Caribbean so we’ll see.

All this is a long way of saying: Fiona will probably turn north or meet its demise before getting to the Gulf, but there’s enough uncertainty regarding the different puzzle pieces to impact this storm that it’s prudent to check back in on Monday and see where we stand. We’ll have more then.

Good morning. We are now about half-way through the month of September, and so far this month Houston has enjoyed slightly cooler than normal conditions. Looking ahead, however, it does appear as though the second half of the month will be warmer than normal, with highs climbing back into the mid-90s for much of next week, and possibly beyond as a high pressure ridge builds over the region. The good news is that, despite the formation of Tropical Storm Fiona in the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday, we have few local concerns about the tropics during what typically is the peak of the season for the Gulf of Mexico.

Thursday

A bit of dry air is holding on this morning, but low temperatures across Houston are generally warmer than they have been the last couple of days. This trend will continue as the onshore flow establishes itself, and pushes humidity levels back up to summertime levels this weekend. Highs today will likely reach about 90 degrees, or slightly above, under mostly sunny skies, with light winds. Areas south of Houston, particularly near Matagorda or Galveston bays, have a slight chance of seeing some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s for most of the area.

Friday and Saturday

Atmospheric moisture levels should spike on Friday and Saturday, and this will lead to some reasonably healthy daily rain chances in the range of 50 or 60 percent for coastal areas, up to about Interstate 10. The northern half of the region, however, is likely to remain mostly dry. This could be a situation where the coast picks up 1 or 2 inches of rain, and areas such as Tomball or The Woodlands maybe catch a sprinkle here or there. Highs, otherwise, will be in the low 90s with mostly sunny skies.

Sunday

This should be another mostly sunny day, but with rain chances perhaps half that of the previous two days as high pressure starts to build over the area. Expect highs in the low 90s.

Next week and beyond

There is no way to sugarcoat things about next week. As high pressure comes back into play, the region is going to see fairly warm conditions, with high temperatures likely in the mid-90s. With the sea breeze the atmosphere may be able to squeeze out a few showers during the afternoon, but for the most part these should be mostly sunny days. I don’t see anything significantly changing until at least next weekend, and perhaps not then. Our next cold front is probably not coming for at least 10 to 14 days, and while there are some hopeful signs in the models at that time, there’s no guarantee of one then. So yeah, summer’s back.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Fiona formed on Wednesday, and it should affect Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and other Caribbean Island this weekend. But as we’ve been suggesting for a couple of days, this system is very probably not bound for the Gulf of Mexico, and in fact it should turn north before approaching Florida or the Southeastern United States. Beyond Fiona the tropics are fairly quiet, which is great for mid-September.

Houston’s brief fling with almost fall-like weather will come to an end within the next 12 to 24 hours as winds turn easterly, and then more southeasterly, bringing moist air from the Gulf of Mexico back into the region. This will set the stage for late summer weather, with highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees, for the foreseeable future. Skies will be mostly sunny for the most part, but coastal areas will see a healthy chance of at least light showers this weekend.

Wednesday

Conditions this morning are rather pleasant across the region, with low temperatures generally in the upper 60s, with slightly warmer temperatures along the coast. High temperatures should warm fairly quickly this morning, due to the somewhat drier air in place. Look for highs to reach about 90 degrees with sunny skies, and rain chances near zero. Winds will be light, at 5 to 10 mph, out of the northeast. Lows tonight will be about 70 degrees in Houston, with warmer conditions along the coast, and slightly cooler inland.

Thursday

This should be another mostly sunny day, with highs somewhere in the range of 90 degrees. As winds turn more southeasterly, humidity levels will start to come back up. While we can’t entirely exclude rain chances, I’d peg them at 10 percent or less for Houston except for the immediate coast where there will be more moisture available.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Starting on Friday, and lasting through the weekend, moisture levels will continue to rise across the region. Effectively this means we’re likely to see sunny mornings, and then the potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the sea breeze migrates inland, and we see peak daytime heating. I’d expect daily rain chances of around 50 percent for areas south of Interstate 10, with lesser chances further inland. Highs will be dependent upon localized shower activity, but likely will range from 90 degrees to the low 90s. Days and nights will be muggy.

Next week

Alas, this warm and fairly humid pattern seems likely to stick around for awhile. There’s no real sign of a meaningful cool front on the horizon for at least the next 10 days, and then only hazy possibilities after that. I’d love to be able to tell you otherwise, believe me.

Tropics

The latest update from the National Hurricane Center, shown above, looks fairly ominous with a tropical system poised to plow into the Caribbean Islands this weekend. However, most of our reliable guidance is not overly bullish on this developing into a strong hurricane at that time, and the storm will probably turn northward before approaching Florida. It’s still something to watch, but our concerns for something getting into the Gulf of Mexico at this time are quite low.

Good morning. It is far from chilly outside, but dewpoints have dropped into the low 60s this morning for much of the region, and this dry air feels pretty nice. Houston will see a couple of more reasonably pleasant, dry-ish days before atmospheric moisture levels start to increase, some rain chances return to the region. This warmer, late summer pattern should hold on through most of next week.

Tuesday

After starting out in the upper 60s to lower 70s this morning, daytime highs will warm into the low 90s beneath sunny skies. Winds will be generally light, out of the east, at about 5 mph. This evening should again be pleasant, with temperatures in the 70s and this somewhat drier air. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 60s for most of the region, away from the coast, with mostly clear skies.

Wednesday

Pretty much a carbon copy of Tuesday, with perhaps even slightly drier air, although I’m not sure this will be perceptible.

Thursday

This will be a bit of a transition day as moisture levels start to increase, and with it the potential for a few scattered showers near the coast. Look for mostly sunny skies otherwise, with highs in the low 90s. Overnight lows should be a few degrees warmer.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend forecast has turned a bit more uncertain as the overall pattern now appears to favor a return to somewhat wetter conditions. Moisture levels will be highest near the coast, so we’re probably looking at daily rain chances in the vicinity of 50 percent for areas south of Interstate 10, and 30 percent or so further inland. I’m still anticipating mostly sunny skies otherwise, with high temperatures in the low 90s. Overnight lows should be solidly back into the mid-70s, with plenty of humidity, by this weekend. Hopefully we can pin down a more accurate weekend forecast for you by tomorrow.

Next week

Most of next week should continue to bring weather typical of late summer in Houston, which is to say warm days in the low 90s, and at least partly sunny skies. Rain chances will persist next week, but I’m not confident in whether they’ll be low, or or bit higher than that. The forecast models are starting to hint at the potential for another cold front about 10 or 11 days from now, but I probably wouldn’t even write that down in pencil yet, let alone ink.

Tropics

Fourteen years ago, today, Hurricane Ike made landfall along the upper Texas coast. This remains the region’s worst storm surge event during at least the last half century. I remember it distinctly, listening to the winds howl through the skyscraper-lined streets of downtown Houston. Happily, the tropics are quiet today.

As I wrote in a dedicated hurricane post on Monday, we’re getting close to the end of the Texas hurricane season, but we’re not quite there yet. We’re continuing to watch a tropical wave in the Atlantic (noted in orange above) that has a chance to get into the Gulf of Mexico next week. I think the chance that this system affects Texas is rather low, but given the time of year we’ll be watching it closely regardless.