In brief: After a quiet weekend, rain chances pick back up Monday and Tuesday before potentially heavier and more widespread rain on Wednesday and Thursday. Tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will not directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts with rough seas, gusty coastal winds, and some tidal flooding will be possible.

Right out of the gate, we want to make sure people understand that next week’s weather is being driven by two entities: The first is the potential tropical system in the Bay of Campeche, which will not directly impact us. But the second will be the heavy rainfall on the north side, tangentially associated with it that will impact us. The latter continues to give us some forecast headaches, which we’ll explain below.

Today and Saturday

No issues are expected with plentiful sunshine. As always, a rogue downpour is possible in the afternoon, but much like yesterday it should be quick moving and very localized. Daytime highs will be in the low to mid-90s with elevated ozone levels as well, so poor air quality will be noticeable. Morning lows should be in the 70s tomorrow.

Sunday

For now, we expect much the same for Sunday, though a few extra clouds could begin to sneak in for the second half of the day, along with an isolated shower or downpour.

Monday & Tuesday

We expect scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms in the area on Monday and Tuesday afternoons, though it’s a bit soon to pin down exactly where these will be most likely. Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours. This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees.

Wednesday & Thursday

We are beginning to see decent model agreement that Tuesday night, Wednesday, and early Thursday will feature our highest rain chances, and with that will likely come some heavy rainfall. I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding. The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs. Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast, while our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall.

One other possibility in this scenario is that a lot of rain falls at the immediate coast or offshore, which ends up depriving inland areas of moisture. So there is at least a chance that we see a very sharp gradient of rainfall next week with high totals near Galveston and very manageable totals in Houston. Things should hopefully quiet down later Thursday and Friday, regardless.

Marine impacts

In addition to the rainfall, we will likely see some pretty considerable wind and wave impacts over the open waters next week. With rather sustained easterly or east-southeast 20 to 30 mph winds nearshore and 30 to 35 mph winds offshore, look for waves to begin to build to 8 to 10 feet over the Gulf by midweek. I would anticipate nuisance to minor tidal flooding issues as we hit high tide cycles on Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll want to keep tabs on this just because of the persistence of the onshore flow next week.

Bay of Campeche system

We continue to see about a 50/50 shot that a tropical system develops in the Bay of Campeche next week.

As noted above, this is related but separate from the rain we see next week. While development (low-end) is becoming more possible or likely, it is expected to quickly slide ashore in Mexico, so no direct impacts are expected on the Texas coast.

Beyond this, there may be another sloppy system that tries to develop the week of June 24th, but we have plenty of time to watch that. We’ll have more on next week’s rainfall situation over the weekend.

In brief: Houston will see a few more isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, but overall our pattern will turn sunnier and a bit hotter through Saturday. After that the focus turns to the Gulf of Mexico, where a tropical disturbance is likely to develop. Local rain chances start to increase on Sunday, but at this point we expect the heaviest rain associated with this system to remain south of the Houston metro area.

Thursday

As high pressure expands over the Southern United States, we’ll see decreased rain chances today, perhaps on the order of 20 percent. Like in recent days, any showers and thunderstorms will develop during the late morning, afternoon, and early evening hours with daytime heating. A few areas may see accumulations of 1 inch or greater, but much of the area will see nothing. Skies, otherwise, should be partly to mostly sunny today with high temperatures in the low 90s. Winds will be light. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 70s for most locations.

Friday and Saturday

With high pressure reaching is broadest expanse into our area, skies will be mostly sunny on both of these days with temperatures in the low- to -mid-90s. Since we are very near to the summer solstice now, please know the Sun is almost directly overhead (an altitude of 84 degrees) during the midday hours. This will burn your skin quickly, so please take precautions. Afternoon dewpoints will be slightly lower on Friday and Saturday so it won’t feel as hot as it will later this summer. Rain chances on both days is 10 percent, or less.

Sunday and beyond

By Sunday our attention will turn toward the Gulf of Mexico. As we’ve been discussing for several days, a tropical disturbance is likely to form in the Bay of Campeche early next week. (The National Hurricane Center now gives the system a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm during the next seven days).

At this point I am fairly confident that high pressure over the southern United States will help to keep this system penned up in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and eventually steer it westward into Mexico (most likely) or South Texas. Although some organization is possible, the main threat from this tropical system is very likely to be heavy rainfall.

Due to the overall steering that we’re expecting, I think rainfall accumulations for the Houston area next week are likely to be manageable. Totals are likely to be highest along the coast, with the potential for 3 to 5 inches, with lesser amounts likely for inland areas. Greater accumulations than this are possible for locations further south, such as the Brownsville area, but uncertainty remains.

In the greater Houston area we’re also likely to see stronger onshore winds, perhaps 10 to 20 mph, with higher gusts, associated with the system. Tides may also run 1 to 2 feet higher with a persistent onshore wind. All of this forecast is subject to change if the tropical system evolves differently, but as for now I anticipate our localized effects to be mostly modest.

The bottom line is that much of next week, beginning Sunday, is likely to bring at least partly cloudy skies into the region with the chance for intermittent heavy rainfall. This pattern should help to keep high temperatures in the vicinity of 90 degrees, so a bit cooler than normal. Matt and I will be watching this closely and update as warranted if the forecast substantially changes.

In brief: After one more day with storm-o-clock weather this afternoon, Houston will see a sunnier and hotter pattern set in through the first half of the weekend. We’re not going to get super-hot, but it will feel like June out there. By Sunday our attention turns to the Gulf of Mexico, and the potential for tropical rainfall much of next week.

Wednesday

We’re going to see one more day with the potential for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will be similar to what we’ve seen on Monday and Tuesday, with storms firing up during the late morning, afternoon, and early evening hours due to a combination of plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, the sea breeze, and an overall perturbed atmosphere. Similar to the last couple of days, a few locations may see accumulations of 1 to 2 inches of rain, whereas most of the area sees considerably less.

Skies will be partly to mostly sunny when it’s not raining, with high temperatures reaching the low 90s for much of Houston. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be light, around 5 mph from the northwest. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.

Thursday

This will be a bit of a transition day as high pressure builds into our area from the northeast. I can’t rule out some isolated showers and thunderstorms, but most of us will see sunny skies with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. Lows will drop into the mid-70s.

Friday and Saturday

These will be sunny and hot days, with highs in the low-to-mid 90s. However, dewpoints will be a bit lower than a classic Houston summer, especially on Friday. This will take some of the sting out of the daytime highs, and make evenings a little more comfortable. Lows on Friday night could drop into the low 70s for much of Houston. Rain chances for both of these days are less than 10 percent.

Sunday and beyond

Starting on Sunday, our attention will need turn to the Southern Gulf of Mexico, where we could see some sort of tropical disturbance develop. Right now I don’t anticipate anything too organized—i.e. with strong, hurricane-force winds. However, whatever does develop is likely to be an efficient conveyor belt to bring Gulf moisture onshore, and therefore serve as a source of moderate to heavy tropical rainfall.

Our best forecast models are split on the evolution of this system, and how far north it moves (this will depend on the strength of high pressure over the southern United States). What I can say is that, beginning Sunday and especially from Monday through Thursday, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall along the Texas coast, including the greater Houston area.

It is a folly to try and predict rainfall totals because there are still so many uncertainties about a forecast for 5 to 10 days from now. But this is the kind of thing where our area could see 1 inch of rainfall, or 10 next week. In any case, most of next week should see a cloudier pattern, and this should help to limit highs in the upper 80s. Matt and I will be keeping a close eye on this, and when we know something, you will.

In brief: Monday’s showers were hit or miss, with a few areas picking up 2 inches of rain and much of the rest of the area seeing dark clouds but little precipitation. This stormy pattern will continue for two more days before we turn sunny and hot for the second half of the week. Rain chances look to increase again early next week with the influx of tropical moisture. In today’s post, we also share a weather oddity observed on Monday.

Clouds over Houston’s freeways

On Monday a reader, Chris Yetsko, noticed an interesting feature when he was looking at satellite images of the Houston area shortly after sunrise. If you look closely near downtown you can see lines of cumulus clouds briefly firing up to the north. These align with Interstate 45, Highway 59, and Highway 290, just at rush hour. Frankly, neither Matt nor I have ever seen anything like this.

So what’s happening? I can’t say for sure. Cumulus clouds like these form when warm, humid air rises rapidly. When this air encounters colder temperatures aloft, water vapor in the air condenses. We did see some slightly cooler air north of Houston on Monday, so this may be why we see this phenomenon on freeways north of downtown, rather than south of the city where the atmosphere was a little warmer. Freeways, of course, are warmer than surrounding areas due to automobile exhaust. In any case, a fun little meteorological mystery we wanted to share.

Tuesday

The overall setup today is similar to Monday, with plenty of moisture in the atmosphere and a series of disturbances propagating through the area. Therefore, I expect we’ll see the development of fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms later today, predominantly during the afternoon and early evening hours with daytime heating. Accumulations should again vary widely, with some areas perhaps picking up 2 inches or more, and many areas seeing little measurable rainfall. Brief street flooding is possible under the strongest storms. Otherwise, expect partly sunny conditions today with high temperatures in the low 90s.

Wednesday

This should be a similar day to Tuesday, albeit with perhaps less shower and storm coverage during the afternoon and evening hours. Expect highs in the low 90s.

Thursday and Friday

Rain chances don’t entirely go away on Thursday, but they’re probably going to drop into the vicinity of 10 percent. By Friday they should be gone entirely. Thus, I expect these to be mostly sunny days with highs in the mid-90s. The humidity will be slightly lower, so enjoy those mornings and evenings.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend should bring more hot and sunny weather, with most of the area in the mid-90s. However, we can’t rule out a few areas popping into the upper 90s. By Sunday the high pressure ridge that will bring sunny conditions during the second half of this week should be easing off, and it will open us back up to some rain chances. I’ll ballpark them at 30 percent or so, but we’ll need to fine-tune that as we get closer.

Next week

We’re still looking at the possibility of an influx of moisture from a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico starting on Monday. The forecast is pretty messy, meaning there are a lot of variables in play and the models are struggling to hone in on a solution. My sense is to not be too worried about this. I’m just not seeing much of a signal for a really organized tropical storm to develop in the Southern Gulf of Mexico next week. The primary threat is heavy rainfall, but again all we can really say at this point is that we may see some elevated rain chances next week. We’ll keep watching for you.