In brief: The Houston region will see one final round of showers and potentially severe weather today, but only the southern half of our area is at risk. After this morning, the bulk of the heavy rains and thunderstorms will shift east. We then can look forward to a pleasant, sunny weekend.

Storm status

After some central and northern portions of the Houston metro saw storms on Tuesday and Tuesday night, it is now the turn of coastal counties to see widespread activity. An atmospheric disturbance is propagating up the coast, and it will drive showers and thunderstorms in our area, primarily south of Interstate 10, with the greatest activity for locations right along the coast. Although the likelihood of severe weather is lower than Tuesday, we cannot rule out the possibility of a tornado.

Rain accumulations may briefly flood some streets, so we are maintaining a Stage 1 flood alert in place for areas south of I-10. (Most areas north of I-10 will see limited to no rainfall today and tonight). Areas right along the coast may pick up 1 to 4 inches of rainfall, with lesser totals further inland. By mid- to late-morning the bulk of this system should have moved off to the east, clearing the region, and ending the possibility of widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday

As noted above, your weather this morning will depend a great deal on how far you live from the coast. However most of the region should see clearing skies this afternoon, and this will allow high temperatures to jump into the low- to mid-80s for most locations. Winds will generally be light, from the east. Lows tonight will drop only to around 70 degrees.

Thursday

This should be a mostly sunny day, with temperatures reaching the mid- to upper-80s. There will be a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, perhaps 20 percent. Temperatures on Thursday night will drop into the upper 60s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

A weak front will slowly drag some drier air into the Houston region, and this will lead to some nicer days as we approach the weekend. I’m not sure whether this will be the final front of the season to make a meaningful impact on temperatures and humidity, but it may well be. Anyway, we should see three mostly sunny days, with highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with moderately drier air (dewpoints in the 50s, probably). Nighttime temperatures will likely drop to about 60 degrees for a few mornings, with some inland areas hitting the upper 50s. Again, this is not cold by any measure, but it is far cooler than the weather that lies ahead of us for the next four to five months. Finally, we cannot entirely rule out some rain chances, but they’ll be quite low each day.

Next week

As high pressure builds in most of next week looks hot and sunny. By Thursday or Friday we could start to see daily highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees, with plenty of humidity. Summer will be on our doorstep.

In brief: The next 12 to 24 hours will bring the potential for severe weather into the greater Houston region. Impacts include heavy rainfall that may lead to street flooding, damaging winds, large hail, and potentially tornadoes. Please be weather aware.

So far, today, the Houston region has been spared direct impacts from severe weather. The storms have remained well north and west of our area. However, that is likely to change in the next few hours as a line of storms, now impacting the College Station areas, is advancing from the west.

These storms will likely reach the northern half of the Houston area this afternoon and early evening. They will bring all of the threats described above, and may make a mess of the Tuesday evening commute for areas along and north of Interstate 10. Not everyone will experience strong storms, but the risk is there.

This evening, and into Wednesday morning, these storms will probably spread across the entire region, including into coastal counties. The storms will lose some of their severity tonight, with the loss of daytime heating. This will diminish the threat of tornadoes and hazards such as damaging winds and hail. But the potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy rain will persist.

By Wednesday morning the majority of action will likely have shifted to the coast, or possibly be pushed offshore. Even so, you’ll want to remain weather aware as you get up and about on Wednesday morning.

Just to repeat myself here: Not everyone is going to be bombarded by severe weather, but the atmosphere above our region appears to be primed for storms during the next 12 hours or a little longer. Please remain weather aware this afternoon, evening, and on Wednesday morning.

In brief: Today’s post discusses our storm expectations for the next two days, with at least three distinct waves of severe weather possible for various parts of the Houston metro area. The bottom line is that it is important to remain weather aware through Wednesday.

Stormy pattern

A sharp disturbance in the upper atmosphere will provide lift needed to support unsettled weather from today through Wednesday across the Houston region. Areas along and north of Interstate 10 will be most favored for severe storms today, but we cannot rule out strong thunderstorms anywhere in the region. Among the risks we are tracking:

• Heavy rainfall with high rates. Most of the greater Houston area is likely to receive 1 to 2 inches of rain, but there will be greater totals in some locations, and rain will be falling quickly enough to back up streets. For this reason we have put a Stage 1 flood alert in place through Wednesday evening.
• Tornadoes. The atmosphere, with plenty of instability as well as available energy (CAPE), will be capable of forming tornadoes. If they form, they could become fairly powerful tornadoes given the atmospheric conditions.
• Large hail. With previous storms we have already seen quarter-sized hail of late, and the atmosphere will be capable of supporting more large hail over the next two days.
• Damaging winds. Within stronger thunderstorms there will be the potential for damaging, straight-line winds. If possible, batten down loose outdoor items that don’t have much heft.

Timing of storms

Your best weapon for timing storms over the next two days will be a good radar app (RadarScope is one we like) to determine conditions nearby your location. However, generally, we expect a fairly calm morning. After that we should see at least three waves of storms:

Round one: By late Tuesday morning a line of storms, very likely with severe storms embedded, will be nearing the College Station area. This line should move into Montgomery County and points north by around noon, affecting the I-45 corridor (I’m concerned about areas including The Woodlands, Conroe, and Huntsville). At this time, we think most of these storms will be along and north of Interstate 10, but again we cannot rule out impacts further south, and closer to the coast.

Round two: Conditions may then calm down for a few hours this afternoon and early evening. However by around sunset I expect another line of storms to approach the Houston region from the northwest. I expect these to advance into the Houston metro area between 8 pm and midnight, but they may peter out before reaching the coast.

Round three: If you live near the coast you may be wondering, are we not going to see anything from all of this mess? Well, it’s possible that areas south of Interstate 10 will not see much action on Tuesday. However, most of our guidance shows another round of storms developing to the southwest of the region and advancing into the city. It appears as though these storms will reach the southern portion of the Houston metro area early on Wednesday morning, spreading into much of the metro area. Again, these storms also have the potential to produce severe weather and could make for a messy commute on Wednesday morning.

After this we may see additional rounds of development later on Wednesday, but nothing quite as severe. We shall see.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Temperatures on both days should be in the low- to mid-80s, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Even when there aren’t storms, on Tuesday in particular, there will be a fairly pronounced southerly wind with gusts up to 25 mph or so. Nights will be warm.

Thursday and Friday

Although likely not severe, the rains may linger into Thursday as a weak front pushes into the area. Expect partly sunny skies on Thursday, with highs in the mid-80s, and mostly sunny skies on Friday with a high of around 80 degrees. With slightly drier air, we should see nighttime temperatures drop into the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

We should have another exceptional weekend. Although I don’t expect the air to be as dry as last weekend, it still should be reasonably pleasant with highs around 80 degrees, or just a bit above that, and lows in the vicinity of 60 degrees in Houston, with a smattering of 50s possible for far inland areas. Sunshine will be abundant, with rain chances near nil.

Next week

Most of next week looks mostly sunny and hotter, with highs possibly reaching 90 degrees by mid-week. It might start to feel a bit like summer around these parts, so enjoy the weekend.

Next update

We will post again on this site no later than shortly after noon.

In brief: Storms are firing up to the west of Houston this afternoon, and the region will face an unsettled pattern through Wednesday morning, at least. This post describes our latest thinking on timing and impacts from these storms.

Good afternoon. Some fairly strong thunderstorms have developed near Brenham, and they are part of a system that is slowly moving to the east, and therefore toward the Houston metro area. I have some doubts about how much of this activity is going to hold together later this afternoon, but it is possible that some parts of the Houston region, including Montgomery County, will experience thunderstorms late this afternoon or this evening before midnight. After this we should experience a reprieve over night.

Tuesday and Wednesday

It is difficult to forecast the next couple of days with high confidence, so I’m going to share what we’re thinking now. But this is a fluid situation. (Both literally and figuratively). Tomorrow morning a fairly strong line of storms is likely to develop along the I-35 corridor around sunrise and then progress eastward across the state. A lot of our modeling suggests this line of storms will remain rather strong as it reaches I-45 late during the morning or around noon-ish. All of the threats are in place here: heavy rainfall, damaging winds, hail, and possibly tornadoes.

Here’s the tricky part. I’m fairly confident in strong storms for places like College Station and Huntsville, but the further south one goes, the less chance of inclement weather. It is possible that much of Harris County, and points south, see only scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, rather than a seriously disruptive and severe event.

However, that won’t be the end of it. The atmosphere will be supportive of a second round of showers and thunderstorms that are more likely to impact central and southern regions of the Houston area. Whether this occurs late on Tuesday evening, overnight, or on Wednesday morning simply is not something I can say with confidence right now.

The bottom line is that from now through Wednesday morning you should be prepared for the possibility of strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. We have put a Stage 1 flood alert in place to account for street flooding, but there is also the threat of hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

We will continue to keep you posted.