In brief: This post will provide some forecast information about Beryl and what to expect in the days ahead, but its main purpose is to try and answer a lot of the questions we’ve been receiving since the landfall of Beryl.

Bye, Bye Beryl

Beryl is whizzing away from Houston. As of 4 pm CT the storm is already 110 miles north of Houston, and pulling away at 16 mph. The storm has weakened into 45-mph tropical system and its weather effects on our region are marginal at this point. Soon they will be nil.

Forecast for this week

It could be worse for mid-July. Losing power during the summertime in Houston is very, very suboptimal, but at least we’re not jumping back into full-on summer heat right away. High temperatures for the rest of this week will be in the low 90s, with a transition to the mid-90s by the weekend. Overnight lows should also drop into the upper 70s for most locations, a few degrees cooler than we’ve been experiencing.

The lower daytime temperatures will be partly due to a fair amount of cloud cover during the afternoons, and a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. (Right now overall accumulations each day look to be on the order of a tenth of an inch, or two, so no real concerns there). Humidity is still going to be very high. Winds are going to go from extreme to near zero by Tuesday morning. In terms of wet bulb globe temperatures, we’re talking high, but not extreme heat.

Is there anything else out there in the tropics to be worried about?

Nope.

We expect to see a lull in tropical activity for at least the rest of this week, if not longer, which is normal for July. Lord knows we’ve earned it. Several people have asked whether Beryl means it’s more or less likely we see another storm this season. I don’t think it makes any difference to our odds. We’ve still got about two and half months during which we need to remain really watchful of the tropics.

Creek and bayou flooding

Most of the creek and bayou flooding we’ve seen on Monday has peaked, or will soon. In the absence of heavy rainfall, and with our winds turning southwesterly, we will see these waters recede pretty quickly this afternoon and evening.

What is up with all these power outages?

I’ve got to tell you, I’m rather surprised by the extent of the power outages today due to downed trees, power lines, and damaged transmission equipment.

As of 2:30 pm CT today, CenterPoint reports that 2.2 million of its Houston-area customers are without electricity, or about 85 percent of them. I’m blown away because, during Hurricane Ike in 2008, there were about 2.1 million customers without power in the immediate aftermath of the storm. If you had asked me before Beryl whether I expected to see comparable outages during this storm, I would have emphatically said no.

Large chunks of the Houston metro area experienced sustained winds of 75 to 90 mph during Hurricane Ike, which made landfall with 110 mph winds. However, during Beryl, the maximum sustained winds that most communities experienced were on the order of 45 to 70 mph. (Beryl made landfall about 80 miles south of Houston with 80-mph sustained winds). So I really don’t understand why a majority of the Houston region is without power this afternoon. Beryl was a serious wind storm, but it was not Ike.

Is my internet coming back anytime soon?

When the power went out, it also took most of our broadband internet providers. The intricacies of internet service are beyond the scope of this site, but generally broadband providers like Comcast need electricity at the local level to deliver internet to your home. So my sense is that, for most communities, high-speed internet won’t come back until the power comes back. I’ve been (not so) patiently checking Xfinity’s site for my service address, and the estimated time of restoration remains an ominous, “as soon as possible.”

As for cell phone towers, you may have just a bar or two of service, which is not really enough to surf the web but still allows you to text and make phone calls. That’s because cell towers are subject to power outages as well. They have backup electrical systems, such as batteries or generators. Some carriers have trucks to service batteries or refill fuel-powered generators, but my understanding is that high-speed cell service may also be dependent on electricity being restored to nearby cell towers. 

Are y’all gonna take a breath now, or what?

Like so many of you, Matt and I both experienced some issues with Beryl. In my case it was several large downed trees and limbs. (Shoutout to my neighbor, Andy, for being handy with his chainsaw so I could use my driveway). I continue to have no internet service, so I drove to Dwight’s house to research and write this update.

The bottom line is that we’re reverting to a normal, daily posting routine starting Tuesday morning. And the posts may be a bit late as we get things back in order. But honestly the forecast is super straightforward: warm-to-hot days, mild nights, high humidity, and a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms with daytime heating.

I want to offer a sincere thank you to everyone who followed along with us during Beryl, a storm that proved a beast to forecast, and which packed a surprisingly strong punch for a Category 1 hurricane making landfall to the south of Houston. I think I speak for everyone but the roofers and tree trimmers when I say, good riddance!

Hurricane Beryl is now Tropical Storm Beryl as it lifts north across northwest Harris County this morning.

Beryl will make its exit to the north as we go through the next 2 to 3 hours. Conditions have improved south of Highway 59 and west of I-45, and that improvement will spread northward through mid afternoon.

Wind gusts: Most wind gusts are still on the order of 50 to 70 mph north of Houston under the stronger banding. Bush just reported 78 mph at 10:10 AM, while they peaked at 83 mph just a little earlier. Hobby maxed out at 84 mph before the sensor stopped transmitting data.

The highest reliable gust I have seen is 97 mph near Freeport at the gauge along the Brazos at highway 36. More reports will filter in, but suffice to say that 80 mph gusts are still a possibility north of Houston as this moves through. Even College Station managed to hit 56 mph with the top of Kyle Field reporting 90 mph (elevated winds will almost always be stronger).

Power Outages: All we can tell you is that as of this writing, Centerpoint reports over 2 million customers without power. That’s more than the May derecho and roughly 50 to 60 percent of the region. It will take time to restore it. We have no idea how long. We know many of you are frustrated, and we’re just hoping for the best like you are.

Cell service: Many in the area are experiencing weak cell phone service. You may not have any cellular internet access, with just a bar or two, but still able to text and make phone calls. That’s because cell towers are subject to power outages as well, but they have backup electrical systems – either batteries or generators – to keep basic communications going. That may include batteries that last between 2-8 hours. Some carriers have trucks to service batteries or refill fuel-powered generators, but while the storm is raging they can’t move around the area – just as you can’t. – Dwight Silverman (Thank you, Dwight!)

Bayou flooding: Several bayous have come out of their banks across the region. We can’t possibly go through all of them, but per Jeff Lindner at Harris County Flood Control, Brays, Keegans (lower end), Clear Creek, Armand, Brickhouse Gully, White Oak (I-10 to Downtown), and Buffalo Bayou east of the Beltway were all being monitored. The Flood Control map is a great resource to check on bayou levels and rain totals. They also do inundation mapping which is useful if you live near a bayou and want to know how the bayous are trending.

Street flooding: As rain gradually tapers off, street flooding will ease up a bit. It will take longer than usual, however due to copious amounts of debris on area roads. Try to limit travel through afternoon if possible.

Tornadoes: We’ve had a handful of tornado warnings, but I am not sure if anything has yet been confirmed or likely confirmed. A tornado watch continues through late evening north and east of Houston into Louisiana.

This watch box will likely be shaved down as we go through evening and Beryl moves out.

Beryl’s surprise: I saw a lot of comments from people that were surprised by Beryl’s wind. Admittedly, I was too. Beryl maintained hurricane status to I-10, which was a bit longer than expected I think, and the widespread wind gusts of 75 to 85 mph so far inland was really unnerving. Like the derecho and floods of the past, this will inform our coverage going forward. We will Monday morning quarterback the forecast plenty I am sure. Many of you already are, and justifiably so after any event like this. Look for more in the days ahead on what we saw and what we’re taking away from this.

Our next post will come sometime this afternoon. I’ve got a ceiling leak, a fence down, and two large limbs adjacent to my garage. Eric is dealing with no internet service (I’m sure many of you are as well). I can confirm both our generators are rolling, so we will be posting as in line with our schedule as possible. Thanks for your support and understanding, and we hope everyone is managing through this storm as safe and damage-free as is possible.

In brief: Everyone in Houston, whether you want to be or not, is a storm chaser this morning. The worst of Beryl should unfold over the next three to six hours, after which we will see improving conditions from south to north. This post describes what to expect during this period of most intense conditions from the storm.

A few thoughts on the arrival of Beryl

Good morning, everyone. Beryl is finally here—not that you need me to tell you that—and so far things are going about as expected. The storm is presently nearing Fort Bend County, and its center will pass through the western half of the city of Houston between now and about 11 am CT. The very worst of Beryl’s effects will be over by then for the city.

Let’s start with some good news. The storm is continuing to move just east of north at about 12 mph, which will allow it to clear the area by this afternoon. We are highly confident in that forward speed. Additionally, the storm did intensify some prior to landfall, but it came ashore as a low-end Category 1 hurricane, with 80-mph winds. Given that Beryl had more than two full days and nights over the Gulf of Mexico to intensify, and with water temperatures in the upper 80s and increasingly low shear conditions, I consider us to be fortunate that Beryl was that strength at landfall. It was starting to intensify, in earnest, as it came ashore. Another 12 to 24 hours and it’s likely a significantly more powerful hurricane.

That may be small comfort if you’re sitting at home this morning without electricity or have some property damage; or if you’re just feeling really miserable as the tempest engulfs you. But this could have been much worse had Beryl gotten to 90 or 100 mph prior to landfall. It’s ultimate track is going to bring the storm’s center and worst winds and rains over large parts of the Houston metro area. This is a very bad track for wind damage with a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane.

What’s next for Beryl

As the storm encounters land it will start to weaken today. However the storm should remain at or near hurricane strength as it traverses the metro area this morning. The center will move through Fort Bend County, passing near Sugar Land, and up through the western half of Harris County. It will then push into Montgomery County by or before noon before exiting to our north early this afternoon. And then, it will be gone.

Beryl’s winds

Much of the Houston region is starting to see sustained winds above tropical storm force strength this morning, with gusts of 60 mph or higher. These winds should increase a little bit as they reach their peak levels across much of Houston over the next four hours. For areas north of the city, including Montgomery County, peak winds should come a little bit later, perhaps between 10 am and noon CT.

As the winds have increased this morning, the number of power outages in the metro area have steadily increased. As of 5:45 am CT, CenterPoint is up to 396,000 customers without power. Expect that number to increase as Beryl pushes inland. Efforts to restore power should begin as early as later this afternoon as the winds subside.

Heavy rainfall

The strongest band of showers and thunderstorms is now moving through the metro area, roughly along Interstate 45, from Galveston to League City, on into central Houston. These storms are dropping 2 to 3 inches of rain per hour and there are numerous reports of flooded streets. Based on radar trends, I anticipate these rains will slowly lift north with the storm over the next several hours.

Expect the heaviest rainfall to end, from north to south, likely between the hours of 8 am and Noon CT. Additional showers will be possible thereafter, but the worst should be over. Expect accumulations of 4 to 8 inches for most locations, with the potential for some higher bullseyes.

Tornadoes

We’ve already had one tornado warning this morning for areas north of Houston (it has since ended) and we expect some sporadic twisters to spin up as Beryl’s core moves through the city. These will be fast moving tornadoes, and likely only touchdown for a short period of time. If you receive a warning on your mobile phone, please seek an interior room on the lowest level.

Coastal flooding

Storm surge flooding will peak over the next hour or two, with high tide coming in a few hours. These waters will rapidly recede this afternoon as Beryl pulls away.

Our advice this morning

The worst of Beryl is now upon us. Conditions may deteriorate a bit further this morning, before we start to see improvement in conditions by late morning hours. So hunker down for the next 4 to 6 hours, and then we can begin to assess the damage and move forward. If roads are passable (considering flood waters or downed trees) it should be safe to be out and about this afternoon, and especially this evening.

Our next update will come between 10 am and 11 am CT.

In brief: Beryl has made landfall near Matagorda, TX as a category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. It will now move north across Matagorda and Fort Bend Counties into western Harris County, while slowly weakening. Heavy rain, flooding, more frequent strong winds, and isolated tornadoes are all likely as Beryl pushes northward this morning.

As expected, Beryl waited until the end of its time over water to really get itself together, and we are fortunate it did. Otherwise, we’d be having a much graver conversation this morning. Beryl made landfall around 3:30 AM just east of Matagorda and west of Sargent down in Matagorda County, not far from the Brazoria County line.

Beryl is moving northward around 10 mph and will begin to gradually weaken now that it’s over land. The current storm track puts the center on a course to pass across Fort Bend County and western Harris County on its way north. The worst of the wind and heaviest of the rain will be near that track and to the east, which encompasses most of the western half of the Houston metro area. Here’s what we should be expecting over the next few hours.

Wind: Wind gusts have been as high as 75 to 90 mph near the coast as Beryl has approached. Expect widespread 50 to 90 mph gusts across Matagorda, Brazoria and southern Fort Bend Counties as this comes north. Portions of western Galveston County as well. Numerous power outages should be expected. Wind gusts will diminish a bit as this moves into Harris County and northern Fort Bend, but still strong most likely in the 40 to 80 mph range, highest south and lowest north. Subtract another 10 or so from that for Montgomery County. Winds west of the center will likely be a bit under these values for all locations.

Centerpoint is reporting almost 50,000 customers without power as of 3:20 AM. Expect this number to increase.

Surge: Storm surge has increased as I am drafting this post, up to around 3 feet or so at Sargent and 4 feet at San Luis Pass. Moderate flooding is underway as Beryl’s surge arrives. Water will peak soon if it has not already and will slowly decline over the next few hours.

Water will continue rising a bit longer on Galveston Island and in through the bays. Tiki Island is at moderate flooding levels now and a 3 foot surge. More flood gauges can be found here.

Rain: As expected, torrential rain is moving in with Beryl. Rates of nearly 2 inches an hour have been reported in the first major band of rain south of Houston as of 3:30 AM. As Beryl should track just west of Houston, the heaviest rains will likely be across Matagorda, Brazoria, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, and Montgomery Counties. Widespread street flooding is likely, and travel is discouraged until the rain tapers off later this morning.

Tornadoes: A Tornado Watch is in effect through 10 AM. I would expect to see a handful of tornado warnings come down over the next several hours as Beryl moves inland. They will move quick, so have alerts turned on on your phone or your favorite alerting app, and get to a low-level and/or interior room as quickly as possible if a warning is issued for your neighborhood.

Eric will have a full update on where things stand in just a couple hours, around 6 AM or so. Stay safe and dry everyone.