Good morning. Houston will have two more hot and sunny days before our weather transitions to a wetter—and perhaps a much wetter pattern—toward the end of this week and into next week. We’re going to need to watch the tropics closely, as we expect the Gulf of Mexico to see one and perhaps two storms between now and September 10.

Tuesday

High pressure remains firmly in place for now, and this means Houston will see a hot and sunny day with high temperatures generally in the upper 90s. Skies will be mostly sunny, with light southerly winds. This will be a classic, late August day with a warm night.

Wednesday

Beginning Wednesday the aforementioned high pressure system should begin to slowly recede northward, and this may open the region to some slight rain chances. Areas south of Interstate 10 may see about a one-in-three chance of rain, with lesser chances inland. Skies should be mostly sunny, with highs in the mid- to upper 90s.

Thursday and Friday

With the high pulling away, we should start to see some atmospheric disturbances rotating around its southern periphery. This should bring increased cloud cover and approximately 50-50 rain chances for the end of the work week. This will help to moderate high temperatures, likely holding them in the low 90s.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Saturday should see about 50 percent rain chances, and Sunday higher still as tropical moisture levels push into the area. Rain chances will be higher the closer one lives to the coast, with residents in Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers counties probably having about a 70 percent chance of rain by Sunday. Skies this weekend will be partly sunny, with highs in the low 90s.

The wet pattern will likely continue into the first half of next week. How wet we get will depend on the ultimate track of a tropical system we anticipate will move in the Southern Gulf of Mexico at that time. If this tropical system moves into Texas, some part of the state could see 10 inches or more of rainfall during the Monday through Wednesday time frame of next week, but it is way too early to have any specificity of whether this will be Brownsville, Corpus Christi, the Houston area, or elsewhere.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center has highlighted three areas of interest on its forecast map this morning, but for our purposes the only one that matters is the orange “X” in the Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm during the next five days, and nearly all of our reliable model guidance suggests it will become a tropical storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday or Monday. Whether it becomes a hurricane depends upon several factors, including its interaction with the Yucatan peninsula. This is impossible to predict for now.

I am going to show you two forecast maps for the eventual track of this tropical system. They are ensembles from the GFS model and the European model, and the purpose of this is to demonstrate the considerable uncertainty in track. It is also clear that some kind of storm will very likely be coming to the Mexico mainland or Texas coast early next week, and that areas along and to the north of its track will be on the receiving end of significant tropical moisture. This is why we say that Texas is at risk for heavy rainfall early next week, but we cannot say precisely where.

The GFS model, shown above, is more south than the European model. This would likely keep the heaviest rains south of the Houston region next week. Matt and I, for now, are leaning slightly in favor of this solution as the more realistic solution. But again, our overall confidence is quite low.

The European model brings a storm along a more northerly track about six days from now. This would bring heavier rains to Texas, including potentially the Houston area, next week.

The bottom line is that we need to watch the Gulf of Mexico closely. There are signs that yet another tropical storm may move from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico about a week after this one. We are approaching the peak of hurricane season and the tropics are acting accordingly. We’ll be on top of it for you.

Good morning. We are into the final week of August, and this brings both good and bad news. The good news is that we’re much closer to the end of summer than the beginning. Based upon our climate normals, the warmest stretch of summer in Houston lasts from July 31 through August 8, when the average temperature is 85.8 degrees. (That’s simply an average of the daily high and low temperature). We are, reasonably, about one month from when we can expect fall’s first significant cool front.

The bad news is that we still have about a full month of summer left, and it coincides with the absolute peak of hurricane season for Texas. Although we see no immediate threats to the greater Houston region (read more below), the next few weeks do look active for the Gulf of Mexico. So we’re asking you to hang on for one more month, after which we’ll escape the heat of summer and the main threat of tropical activity.

Monday

Monday will see a continuation of conditions the region experienced over the weekend, which is to say hot and sunny. High temperatures for inland areas could well flirt with 100 degrees, and even coastal areas should be solidly in the low- to mid-90s. Skies will be mostly sunny, with only light southerly winds. This will be a day for care during the hottest, afternoon hours. Overnight lows should be in the upper 70s.

Tuesday

Another hot and sunny day, with high temperatures in the upper 90s. Winds will again be calm.

Wednesday and Thursday

Our overall pattern should begin to change by the middle of the week, as high pressure lifts away from the area. This should bring a few clouds to our skies, and introduce rain chances of perhaps 30 to 40 percent each day during the afternoon hours. This may also help to moderate temperatures slightly, from the upper 90s to mid-90s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend forecast is far from settled, but for now it appears as though the combination of low pressure and increasing levels of tropical moisture should combine for healthy rain chances, especially by Sunday. For now I’d guess we’ll see highs in the low 90s, with partly sunny skies, and at least a 50 percent chance of rain showers each day. Under some scenarios, heavy rain is possible by Sunday, but that will depend to some extent on tropical development, discussed below.

Tropics

After Tropical Storm Henri moved into the northeastern United States this weekend, there are no active systems over water. However that could change later this week as a tropical wave moves into the Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center gives this wave a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm within the next five days.

The global models are generally pretty bullish on this system eventually developing in the Southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and it’s something we’ll be watching closely as it will influence our rain chances this weekend. For now the bulk of these models suggest the storm will come ashore somewhere along the Mexican mainland, south of the Texas border. Although it is far too early to have much confidence in this, such a scenairo would also be unfortunate, give the recent landfall of Hurricane Grace near the resort town of Tecolutla.

After this system, there are hints of more potential activity in the Gulf of Mexico about two weeks from now, which would be consistent with early September. As we said above, the next month is the peak of hurricane season for Texas, so have a plan and be prepared.

Thursday saw the beginning of the transition from our wet pattern this week to a much drier one as we head into the weekend. Recent rain totals have varied widely across the area. Let’s quickly just look at rain totals for the last 7 days.

Since last week, we’ve seen as much as 6 and a half inches of rain between the Galleria and Beltway, with the highest observed total I can find being 6.68″ at Buffalo Bayou and San Felipe. New Territory out by Sugar Land has seen over 5 inches over the last week, as have parts of Pasadena and Cypress as well. On the flip side, Katy, Galveston, and League City have all registered maybe a half-inch or less. So that map above may not be entirely accurate for your specific backyard. That’s the challenge of Southeast Texas rain. Literally one side of the street can see rain while the other side is dry. Speaking of rain, it will be a rare commodity over the next 4 to 5 days or so, as summer revs back up.

Today through Sunday

The chance of rain between now and Sunday is certainly not zero, but it’s probably as close to that as you can get this time of year in Southeast Texas. Expect mostly sunny skies the next several days. Here’s the good news, sort of: While it will be hot this weekend with highs well into the mid, if not upper-90s, it will not be exceptionally humid. That said, it will still be hot enough for heat index values to easily top off at or just above 105° each afternoon, which is hot enough to take it easy and drink plenty of water.

Morning lows will be in the 70s. There should be a little breeze each day, but nothing too refreshing or intrusive.

One thing to keep in mind this weekend: As Tropical Storm Grace approaches Mexico, well to our south, some rough surf and strong rip currents should make it to the coast here in Texas. Please use caution if you’ll be swimming in the Gulf. Also, there could be some minor tidal flooding with wave runup, particularly near Surfside Beach or Crystal Beach. Nothing too serious, but we don’t want you to be caught off guard by that.

Monday and Tuesday

Look for a gradual increase in onshore flow. Coupled with a rather hot air mass still overhead, this should yield slightly more unpleasant heat index values, with some areas perhaps sneaking up closer to 110° or so in the afternoon, especially after the sea breeze comes through. That said, the return of onshore flow should mean the return of at least some minor rain chances. Look for a couple showers or storms in the area on Monday and Tuesday afternoons. But most of us will probably continue dry.

Later next week

The pattern should return to one that’s at least slightly cooler with more typical rain chances for this time of year. Still, expect generally mid-90s each day.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Grace is in the Bay of Campeche this morning, and it will arrive in Mexico tonight as a hurricane (Editor’s note: It strengthened back into a hurricane just after this post was published).

Grace may actually cross Mexico and wind up in the Pacific Ocean, becoming a new storm next week. Grace would have to maintain organization all the way across to keep the name Grace on the other side. That probably won’t happen, so it’s more likely that Grace will dissipate and reform as a new system in the Pacific. Their next name on the list is Marty. The last storm to fully maintain itself from the Atlantic to the Pacific was Hurricane Otto in 2016. Last season’s Hurricane Nana crossed Belize, dissipated, and reformed in the Pacific as Tropical Storm Julio.

Anyone with friends or family or travel plans in New England will want to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Henri this weekend. Henri has failed to get really organized as of yet, which is good news, as a stronger storm likely would make it farther west before turning. Still, it’s expected to become a hurricane this weekend, and it is now likely to make landfall in New England or perhaps Long Island as a hurricane.

As a result of this, hurricane and tropical storm watches are in effect from just east of New York City to just south of Boston. There are still some uncertainties as to exactly how strong Henri will be and where it will make landfall, but given how wet the Northeast has been this summer, flooding could be a significant problem where it does track.

While 3 to 5 inches of rain sounds almost laughable to us in Houston, given the terrain of New England that can cause trouble up there.

Lastly, while we expect a quiet Gulf over the next week, there are at least some hints that tropical moisture or a disturbance could sneak into the western Gulf late next weekend or the week of the 30th. While there’s not a ton of support for anything specific or particularly strong, I think that is the next period we’ll be keeping tabs on in the days ahead. Nothing we need to worry about at this juncture though.