Last real chance of rain today before serious August heat sets in

Wednesday’s high temperature across much of the metro area, beneath cloudy skies and on-and-off rain showers, peaked at about 90 to 93 degrees for most of us. Temperatures much of the day were in the 80s. While this was not “cool” by any stretch of the imagination, we are definitely bound for much hotter weather. The period from this coming Sunday through Tuesday should bring 100-degree heat for many inland locations.

For many locations, afternoon temperatures on Thursday were quite a bit cooler than Wednesday thanks to rain-cooled air. (Weather Bell)

Thursday

For those still seeking a bit of rainfall, today will be akin to drinking in the last chance saloon. Although atmospheric moisture levels remain fairly elevated, we’ll begin to feel the influence of high pressure expanding into the region. For this reason rain chances will likely be higher—maybe 40 or 50 percent—closer to the coast with lesser chances inland of Interstate 69 and Highway 59. These showers will be hit or miss, but a few isolated areas could pick up a quick inch of rain or so. Skies should otherwise be partly sunny, with highs in the mid-90s, and light southerly winds. Rain chances will drop as the Sun drops to the horizon.

Friday

As high pressure begins to fully assert itself, this should be a warm and sunny day with highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances will be on the order of 10 to 20 percent. Winds will be light, out of the south and southeast.

Saturday and Sunday

This will be a classic August weekend, with highs in the upper 90s to possibly 100 degrees by Sunday. Skies will be mostly sunny with generally light winds. Please take care outside during the hottest part of the day.

High pressure should build to a peak on Monday over Texas. (Weather Bell)

Next week

The heat remains turned up through Tuesday, with the potential for 100 degree days and lots of sunshine. A few more clouds return by Wednesday or Thursday, and as high pressure eases off we might even see some modest rain chances toward the end of next week. But it’s still going to be hot, y’all.

Tropics

The tropics remain more or less the same. Hurricane Grace has made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula, will cross the Bay of Campeche on Friday, and make a final landfall along the Mexico mainland on Friday night, likely as a Category 1 hurricane. There is less certainty about Tropical Storm Henri. The forecast models are really struggling with this system, and there is still some question about whether it will affect the northeastern coast of the United States late this weekend. There are no immediate concerns beyond these two storms.

Update on Space City Weather’s app: Where we are, where we’re going

We first released the Space City Weather app a little more than two months ago, and I wanted to give you an update on where we are, and where we hope to go. As a reminder, you can download the app on Apple devices here, and Android devices here. The app is free, and there are no ads, no in-app purchases, and no tracking or hoovering of your personal information.

The App so far

First of all, we could not he happier with the response. More than 75,000 people have downloaded the app on Apple and Android devices since its launch. This is a pretty phenomenal response, and we appreciate your interest. We also appreciate your patience as we know the app launched with bugs on both mobile operating systems. We think we’ve now squashed most of them, so be sure you’ve updated the app on your device to get the latest version. After updating, you can report bugs by emailing us.

Plans for the App in 2022

Since the release of our initial app we have received a lot of feedback and feature requests. And we definitely hear you. To create the initial version of our app we exhausted all of our available funds, with the goal of creating a simple, functional app ready to go in time for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. We delivered that.

Now we are contemplating our next steps. After we hold our site’s annual fundraiser in late October and November, we’ll be able to set a budget for upgrades to the Space City Weather App in 2022. Our initial priority is to work with our developer Hussain Abbasi, to include some of our most requested feature upgrades:

  • A better radar: larger, time stamps, improved resolution
  • Increased number of locations: I.e. Sugar Land, Tomball, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Baytown, etc.
  • An hourly percent chance of rain
  • Metric unit option

Then, depending on the—cough, cough—robustness of our fundraiser later this year we hope to include some of these additional upgrades later in 2022:

  • Dark mode
  • Ability to comment on posts within the app
  • Tropical weather tab

Plans for the App beyond 2022

Beyond these, we have ideas for future upgrades. We’re still not yet sure how to implement some of these, and some will require a lot of back-end work. So we want you to know we’re considering these ideas, but don’t have immediate plans to include them:

  • Pollen counts
  • Barometric pressure and trends
  • Portrait/horizontal mode
  • Apply watch support
  • Apple and Android widgets

As always, thank you for your interest in Space City Weather, and for your kind words about our efforts. Matt and I continue to feel as though it is a privilege to serve you all, and we greatly value the trust you place in us.

Rain showers likely today, with hotter and sunnier weather ahead

This August has been fairly wet by Houston standards, especially in absence of a tropical system to drive widespread showers, but we may soon revert to normal. It looks like we’ll get one more burst of high rain chances today before high pressure begins to assert itself. This will lead to a period of hotter and mostly sunny weather for probably a week or so, with highs eventually pushing into the upper 90s. Would we expect anything different in late August?

Wednesday

Today’s rainfall will be driven by high atmospheric moisture levels in concert with an area of low pressure. This activity should spread inland this morning and last until sunset and the loss of daytime heating. About 75 percent of our area should see rain. Most will see accumuations on the order of 0.5 inch but we cannot rule out a few bullseyes of 2 to 4 inches that may cause temporary street flooding. The better chances for heavy rainfall should be along and southeast of Interstate 69/Highway 59. The rains and partly cloudy skies should limit highs to the low 90s today, with light southeast winds.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for Wednesday. (Weather Bell)

Thursday and Friday

These days will be warmer, with mostly sunny skies, and highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances will fall back to around 30 percent for both days, which means showers will be more isolated to scattered, and most likely to occur during the afternoon. Winds will remain out of the south and southeast, and may become a little more gusty on Friday.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks hot and sunny, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s and mostly sunny skies. We can’t rule out some isolated rain showers, but chances each day are probably 20 percent or less. If you’re headed to the beach, rip currents may be stronger than normal due Grace, which likely will be a hurricane at that time, moving through the Bay of Campeche.

Next week

Frankly most of next week looks hot and sunny, with highs in the upper 90s. I really don’t see much in the way of rain chances returning until the end of next week or so. August will be doing August things.

Grace will remain well south of the United States. (National Hurricane Center)

Tropics

Fred is dissipating over the Appalachian mountains this morning, and bringing heavy rains to West Virginia and Ohio. Grace is nearing hurricane strength, and will likely strike the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night as hurricane. It will then hit the main part of Mexico this weekend, likely near Tampico, as a strong hurricane. In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Henri is likely to stay offshore, but may come relatively close to the northeastern United States as a hurricane this weekend.

Things look quiet for a spell after these storms pass.

Healthy rain chances continue before a hot August weekend

Some areas along the Southwest Freeway and Loop 610 saw very heavy rainfall on Monday, with storms briefly producing about 1.5 inches in 15 minutes. While overall totals for much of this area were only 2 to 4 inches, the intensity of this rainfall nonetheless produced significant street flooding. This is a testament to the power of rainfall rates, which are just as important as rainfall totals. A rate of 2 inches per hour, or more, will quickly back up streets. A healthy chance of rain will remain until the weekend, when high pressure should yield more sunny skies across the region.

Monday’s rainfall totals. (NOAA)

Tuesday

Skies should be partly to mostly sunny, with highs pushing into the mid-90s. High resolution models indicate that storms should again form in the metro area this afternoon and evening, before waning around sunset. I suspect about 40 percent of our region will see showers, with storms likely not as intense as on Monday. Winds will be light, out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday

Slightly higher moisture levels and more of an impetus for rising air should lead to better rain chances on Wednesday, with perhaps 60 percent or more of the area seeing showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will probably slot into the low 90s, with partly sunny skies.

Thursday and Friday

These should be mostly sunny days with highs in the mid-90s. Afternoon shower chances will remain, with perhaps one-third to one-half of the area receiving some rainfall each day.

NOAA rainfall forecast for now through Friday. (Weather Bell)

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

As high pressure establishes itself more firmly, rain chances will fall back to about 20 percent for this weekend. As rain chances fall, temperatures will go up, and I expect a hot weekend with highs pushing into the upper 90s for inland locations. This hot and sunny trend likely continues into next week with August-like weather for our region. The good news? August is now more than half over, my friends.

Tropics

There are three named storms active in the tropics this morning. Tropical Depression Fred has moved inland into the Southeast United States. Tropical Storm Henri is swirling around Bermuda, and will stay away from the United States. And then there’s Tropical Storm Grace, which is nearing Jamaica. Confidence is now high that this system will continue traveling due west, across the Yucatan Peninsula, into the Southern Gulf of Mexico, and ultimately into Mexico. It is not a threat to Texas.

Tropical Storm Grace track forecast. (National Hurricane Center)

After these three storms we may see a bit of a lull in activity—but no promises as we’re in the middle of August.