We’ve had quite a 12 hours of storms across the region, particularly from just north of I-10 south to the coast, with some impressive lightning and heavy rainfall. The highest 24 hour total I can find on the Harris County Food Control website is just a hair over 3 inches of rain near Dickinson. Radar estimated rainfall from the last 24 hours is shown here.

This morning’s radar snapshot below shows the bulk of the rainfall hugging the immediate coast, with the heaviest mostly offshore at this time.

So, what’s next?

Today

Often, when we see this sort of cluster of rain offshore, it helps to cut off moisture inflow from the Gulf of Mexico. In other words, significant moisture is involved with the offshore rain, and it could help reduce rain chances on land a bit, especially the first half of today. That doesn’t mean it will be totally dry, but showers should be very isolated this morning for the most part.

As the day wears on and daytime heating takes over and presumably we see offshore rains weaken a bit, look for a few more storms over Houston and other inland locations. But today’s rain and storms will probably be more hit and miss than widespread, and odds may favor you avoiding rain. We’ll see how that goes. As someone flying to Houston in just a bit, I am okay with this.

Other than rain chances, expect clouds and sun. Highs will probably approach 90 degrees.

Wednesday and Thursday

Look for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, driven mostly by daytime heating and the sea breeze for the middle of the week. Not everyone will see storms, but those that do could easily see an inch or two of rain between both days. The overall pattern will stay pretty unsettled on both days, but it’s tough to get too cute with details today. We will know more tomorrow morning. Highs should be in the upper-80s with lows in the 70s.

Friday and weekend

The storm system in the upper atmosphere that will help the midweek period be so unsettled will continue working back to the west Friday, into West Texas. By Sunday, it ends up in Arizona (good news for the drought plagued West), so things should begin to really settle down around here this weekend. With more sun, that means more heat, and high temperatures should go from the low to mid-90s to mid to upper-90s as the weekend progresses. Rain chances are never zero in summer here, but they look to be quite low. We’re coming up on our hottest time of the year, so this isn’t too surprising. But still, be ready.

In addition to all that, it’s likely we’ll be seeing another blast of Saharan dust this weekend.

It’s going to look, feel, and taste like high summer around Southeast Texas.

There are signs this very hot, drier weather will continue well into next week. If you’ve managed to keep the sprinklers off most of this summer, that may change next week.

Due to travel and work for both Eric and myself, we’ll be foregoing our tropical post today, but there’s honestly not much to discuss right now. The tropics remain quiet, and that should continue for at least another week or so. Things may change heading into August, as they often do, but for now we have nothing in particular to discuss. We will let you know when that changes.

Most of the Houston area saw a hot and sunny weekend, with highs in the mid-90s, and only a smattering of showers. We’ll now return to a wetter pattern for most of the coming work week, with strong storms possible tonight and Tuesday, before hot and sunny weather comes back for next weekend.

Monday

Conditions for much of today will be warm and muggy, with partly sunny skies and highs in the mid-90s. Scattered showers will be possible. The potential for more organized storms begins to increase later this afternoon as a weak front approaches our region from the north, and an associated line of showers and thunderstorms moves into Houston.

Some of these storms could be strong, producing heavy rainfall and damaging winds, especially north of Interstate 10. In terms of timing, the line of storms is likely to reach a line from Sealy to Conroe at around 6 to 8 pm CT, push into Houston along Interstate 10 between 7 and 9 pm, and possibly weaken as they near the coast after 9 pm CT. Generally, we should see accumulations of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with higher localized amounts.

Tuesday

As the frontal boundary stalls out over the Houston region, we could see the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms early on Tuesday morning, either just before or around sunrise. This may make for a mess during Tuesday morning’s commute, especially for areas along and south of Interstate 10.

After this second burst of rainfall, it is possible shower activity could wane some during the later morning and afternoon hours. However, I expect skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday

The overall pattern will remain favorable for rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday, with fairly moist air and an atmosphere that promotes rising air. While I don’t think either of these two days will see the kinds of organized storms expected on Monday, you nonetheless probably have about a 50 percent chance of showers or a thunderstorm during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, expect highs in the low 90s with partly sunny skies.

Friday

Some scattered rains will be again possible on Friday, but by this point we should begin transitioning to a hotter and drier pattern, as high pressure begins to build over the area. Look for highs in the low 90s.

Saturday and Sunday

Toward the end of July we expect to see high pressure assert itself, and for Houston that means hot, sunny, and humid weather. For now, therefore, we expect hot and mostly sunny conditions this weekend, with high temperatures in the mid-90s—and perhaps a touch warmer than that for inland areas. Most likely this hotter and drier pattern will persist into next week. If you’ve missed classic summertime weather in Houston, you’re in luck.

Apologies for the late post this morning, but both Matt and I are balancing work, travel, and family schedules for the next few days so posts may be a bit off schedule through next Wednesday. Fortunately, the weather does not look too crazy as we continue with this wetter-and-cooler-than-normal pattern for July.

Friday

If you’ve appreciated Houston’s weather over the last several days you’re in luck, as Friday is likely to see similar conditions. The combination of daytime heating and the sea breeze should again spark the development of showers and thunderstorms later this morning, and these will be capable of producing briefly heavy rains and strong wind gusts. Perhaps 50 to 60 percent of the Houston region will see rain today to go along with partly sunny skies and highs in the low 90s. Rain chances will slacken this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Saturday

I’m cautiously optimistic about the forecast for the weekend. It looks like atmospheric moisture levels will fall back a little, and this should help to limit both the coverage of showers on Saturday and their intensity. I’d say you probably have about a one-in-three chance of seeing at least some light showers on Saturday, and with partly sunny skies highs will likely get into the low 90s.

Sunday

Sunday should bring more of the same weather, with highs not over-bearing for mid-July and a decent chance of a passing shower. At this time we don’t see much evidence for organized, significant rainfall this weekend. Winds will be light all weekend, out of the east or southeast. Humidity will, of course, be sky high.

Next week

Monday will likely see persistence weather, meaning more scattered rain chances before the upper-level pattern becomes more favorable for rainfall later next week. Tuesday and Wednesday look fairly wet, and at this point I’d say much of the area could pick up an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain during the middle of next week. But that’s just a guess at this point.

By Thursday it really does look like high pressure will start to build over the area, and we could begin an extended period of hotter days in the mid-90s with mostly sunny skies. Some of you will welcome that, and others will dread it. As for Space City Weather’s opinion, I have to say, we’re just here for the fall cold fronts.

Have a great weekend, everyone.

Good morning. If you’ve come to read this in hopes of learning when Houston’s wet pattern will break, I’m afraid we’re going to disappoint you. The short answer is: Not any time soon. Houston is going to see daily rain chances through at least the middle of next week as our region remains open to Gulf moisture and rising air.

Thursday and Friday

Our best-guess forecast for the next two days is that conditions will be a lot like we experienced on Tuesday and Wednesday. Effectively, this means we’re likely to see showers and thunderstorms develop closer to the coast during the late morning hours and then slowly migrate inland during the afternoon hours. These storms are driven as the sea breeze moves inland from the coast, and combines with warmer surface temperatures to lift moisture higher into the atmosphere where it can condense. You can learn more about the sea breeze, and how it affects our weather during the summer, here.

Anyway, these showers will be hit or miss, but some areas may pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain while nearby you just see gray skies and hear thunder. Highs will generally be limited to about 90 degrees with a mix of partly sunny skies. Winds should come out of the south at 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday and Sunday

The overall setup will not change this weekend, although it does look as though the moisture available for storms to develop will decrease slightly. This means there will probably be fewer showers and thunderstorms for you to dodge this weekend, but the threat is unfortunately not going to go away during the afternoon hours. Again, this activity should driven by the sea breeze. Highs will otherwise be in the low 90s for much of the area, with mostly sunny skies.

Next week

This pattern should persist into Monday, after which time we may see conditions actually become more favorable for rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday. While the details are fuzzy, we can expect a low-pressure system to push rain chances higher into mid-week, and this should help to keep temperatures on the low side for our region, perhaps around 90 degrees.

Finally, by about Thursday or so, the models generally agree that our region should begin to see fewer showers and thunderstorms. But that is far enough into the forecast such that I don’t have too much confidence in such a prediction yet.