Southerly winds start to blow today in response to an advancing front

Good morning. Houston will experience warm, windy, and mostly cloudy weather before a strong-ish cold front arrives during the middle of the day Thursday to cool things off. Temperatures could bottom out in the upper 30s on Friday and Saturday morning in Houston, with somewhat chilly weather lasting through most of the weekend.

Wednesday

This morning’s highlight was the setting of a very nearly full Moon, but skies will now cloud over for much of the area. A persistent and warm southerly flow will allow temperatures to reach the mid-70s today. In response to low pressure over the central United States, these winds may at times gust to 25 or 30 mph this afternoon. As atmospheric moisture levels rise, a few isolated, light rain showers will be possible today, but the majority of us should stay dry. Low temperatures tonight may only drop into the upper 60s for most, with an ongoing, slight chance of showers. Winds will remain blowy, from the south.

Forecast for maximum wind gusts from now through Wednesday night. (Weather Bell)

Thursday

After a muggy start, the aforementioned front should move into areas northwest of Houston during the morning hours, the central part of the city around noon, and reach the coast an hour or two later. Some scattered showers are possible with the front, but a capping inversion should limit the threat of any serious thunderstorms. Daytime temperatures will be in the 70s, but the mercury will pretty quickly start to drop as sunset approaches. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 30s, with the usual suspects far inland possibly seeing a light freeze.

Friday morning should be the coldest of the week. (Weather Bell)

Friday

This will be a cooler, mostly sunny day with highs in the mid- to upper 50s. Winds will come from the north, but at a mild 5 to 10 mph clip. Lows Friday night will probably be a degree or two warmer than Thursday night.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday should see mostly sunny skies, with high temperatures pushing into the low- to mid-60s. However, as high pressure moves off the onshore flow will resume, and this will allow for a warmer night in the 40s on Saturday, and highs perhaps around 70 degrees on Sunday. This onshore flow will probably lead to more clouds on Sunday as well, although any rain is unlikely before at least Sunday night or Monday.

Next week

You know the drill, temperature next week will continue to rise until the next front. In this case, I think highs may reach about 80 degrees by Tuesday, and perhaps Wednesday depending on the timing of the front. I’d pencil the next front in for Wednesday-ish, but not with a whole lot of confidence.

Houston to warm up before another front on Thursday

Good morning. For much of the region, temperatures this morning have only dropped to 50 degrees, and the next two nights will be even warmer. However, by Thursday another front will reach the area, bringing sunnier and chilly weather for the weekend. Also, if you’re interested in an update on our app, see the bottom of this post.

Tuesday

Winds are light out of the southeast this morning, but they’ll pick up today as the onshore flow really gets pumping. Expect gusts to reach about 20 mph. This influx of moisture will lead to partly to mostly cloudy skies today, with highs reaching about 70 degrees. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 50s to 60 degrees, with even warmer conditions right along the coast. Some light rain is possible near the coast late tonight.

Highs Wednesday will be quite warm for Houston. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday

The potential for light, scattered showers will continue on Wednesday morning, with the possible additional development of some fog near the coast. The day itself will be windy, with southerly gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph really amping up moisture levels. Highs on Wednesday will reach the mid-70s for much of the area, and with dewpoints in the 60s you will start to feel some humidity. Skies will be mostly cloudy, with a continue chance of light rain. Low temperatures on Wednesday night will only drop into the upper 60s, with a chance of scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.

Severe weather outlook for Wednesday and Wednesday night. (NOAA)

Thursday

This day will start out muggy, ahead of the front. There is a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday morning. However, my sense is that the atmosphere will be capped enough that for most of us there will just be some fairly brief showers before the front reaches our northwest areas during the morning hours, the city around noon, and the coast during the afternoon hours. Highs ahead of the front will be in the 70s, with dewpoints and temperatures dropping after its passage. Skies will clear during the afternoon hours, allowing temperatures to drop into the upper 30s on Thursday night for all areas but the coast.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We’ll see mostly sunny skies on Friday and Saturday in the wake of the front, with highs in the upper 50s for most areas on Friday, and lowers 60s on Saturday, probably. Sunday is a bit warmer, slotting somewhere in the 60s with rising dewpoints. The first half of next week should see highs in the 70s before the likely arrival of the next front.

App Update

We’re starting to work on the next update of our app, which will feature several frequently requested changes, including the addition of more regions in the drop-down menu of cities, a much improved radar, an option for metric units, and more in addition to bug fixes. What I’d like your feedback on is which cities to include for the 7-day forecast and current conditions. The following map shows the current options in the drop-down menu (red) and proposed additions (in purple). If there’s somewhere where we’re missing, please let me know in the comments below. Thank you!

Map of existing locations in the Space City Weather app (red) and proposed locations (purple).

One year after the historic Texas freeze, our weather this week looks mostly pleasant

Good morning. One year ago today temperatures plunged across the region as an Arctic front moved into the Houston region. This marked the beginning of our coldest weather in decades, as ice covered roads, temperatures dropped into the low teens, and millions lost power and shivered inside their homes. It was an absolute disaster. Fortunately, we’re not going to see its like again this winter. Instead, this week, we’ll see a mix of weather, with a little bit of something for everyone.

Have a warm heart on this cold start to Valentine’s Day. (Weather Bell)

Monday

Winds are calm this morning, but will pick up from the south-southwest as high pressure shifts eastward from Houston. This will help lead to a warming trend across the region, with highs generally reaching the upper 60s this afternoon beneath mostly sunny skies. Southerly winds will be light tonight, with low temperatures dropping into the upper 40s.

Tuesday

As atmospheric moisture levels begin to rise along with the southerly flow, some patchy fog is possible on Tuesday morning. Skies will see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with highs likely reaching about 70 degrees. Winds from the south will start to become more vigorous, with some gusts up to 20 to 25 mph possible, during the afternoon hours. Overnight lows will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Wednesday

As dewpoints continue to rise in response to the warm, southerly flow, expect a decent chance of fog. An upper level system with an associated front will be stirring up the atmosphere on Wednesday. This should make for another day with a breezy southerly wind, and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Some rain is possible too, although the better chances will probably come Wednesday night as the front draws near. Storms are possible to the north of the city, with better chances near Dallas. Lows Wednesday night should only drop into the low 60s.

Storm outlook for Wednesday and Wednesday night. (NOAA)

Thursday

The rains, which will generally be light and and result in a tenth of an inch or two of accumulations, should end Thursday morning before a front blows through. This front should reach areas northwest of Houston before noon, the city itself around noon, and the coast during the afternoon. Winds will be gusty in the wake of the front, out of the north, with clearing skies. Temperatures on Thursday afternoon will drop into the 50s for most locations, and into the upper 30s by Friday morning.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend will be cooler, with calmer winds, and mostly sunny skies. Expect highs to reach the upper 50s on Friday, with another night of lows in the upper 30s to 40 degrees in Houston. Saturday and Sunday should both see highs in the 60s. Overall it should be a rather pleasant winter weekend. Expect a fairly robust warming trend as we get into next week, with highs reaching the upper 70s by mid-week, probably.

Pleasant weather plodding along, punctuated by periodic fronts

It is pretty clear that the worst of winter is now behind us in Texas, and while winter is by no means “over,” we should see generally pleasant conditions going forward. Occasional cold fronts will probably ensure that outcome at least through next weekend.

Today

Fog is around much of the area outside the city this morning, so take some care while driving.

We’ll see plenty of sunshine again today, but there should be at least a few clouds around. We’ll warm back into the 70s again this afternoon.

Saturday

I think tomorrow will come with mixed reviews. We have a cold front that will push through the region in the morning. This will probably bring at least a broken line of showers or some rain through the area in the morning hours. So if you have outdoor plans, I might suggest the afternoon over the morning if possible. However, that may also come with a price tag in the form of cooler temperatures. No 70s on Saturday; we’ll see temperatures likely peak in the 50s in the morning and then probably stay there Saturday afternoon.

With a noticeable breeze included, 15 to 25 mph at times, it will feel like February.

Sunday

Temperatures will drop through the 40s and into the 30s Saturday night, bottoming out in the 30s in most areas away from the coast. Look for AM lows perhaps at or below freezing up near Conroe or in some isolated spots outside the city and suburbs.

Sunday morning lows will be back in the 30s with a light freeze possible well outside the city to the north and west (NWS via Pivotal Weather)

Sunday itself will be delightful with sunshine, diminishing winds, and highs near 60 degrees.

Monday & Tuesday

Look for continued pleasant weather on Valentine’s Day with temperatures starting in the 30s and warming into the 60s. Dining al fresco will be cool but probably tolerable with evening temperatures around 60 degrees, give or take. Winds will be light. Tuesday should be similarly nice, with sunshine and upper 60s after morning 40s.

Beyond Tuesday

We’ll see a pretty aggressive warm up begin Tuesday night and Wednesday with a 10+ day stretch of sub-50 degree low temperatures likely ending on Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the 70s on Wednesday and not drop below 60 degrees on Wednesday night. Our next cold front is aiming for Thursday, and Thursday’s temperatures will depend on the exact timing of the front. If it’s late in the day, we’ll go deep into the 70s, but if it’s earlier, we may not get much past the mid-60s. More on that for you Monday.

The Storm Prediction Center is already highlighting the potential for severe weather north of our area on both Wednesday and Thursday (shown here). While this setup looks difficult for the Houston area to get severe weather, it will be worth watching at least for Thursday. (NOAA)

As far as actual weather goes, we’ll likely contend with some fog at times on Wednesday and Thursday, in addition to clouds and sun. Thursday’s front may come with a bit of punch, so I suspect we’ll be tracking thunderstorms, particularly north of I-10 as it passes through. The Storm Prediction Center is already highlighting days 6 and 7 for severe risks in North Texas (Wednesday) and northern Louisiana (Thursday). This looks like a more classic Houston situation where “capping” in the atmosphere will be present for us, limiting risk of severe weather. But we’ll give you more details on that next week. Fair, cooler weather should build in for Presidents’ Day weekend.

As a reminder, you can download the Space City Weather app on your Apple or Android device. And if you o or someone you know would prefer your weather information in Spanish, please check out our Spanish language companion site, Tiempo Ciudad Espacial, helmed by Maria Sotolongo!