In brief: Temperatures are going to get rather cold this week in Houston, with a light freeze possible in the urban core of the city on Thursday morning, and temperatures in the upper 20s possible for inland suburban areas. After that we’ll see a warming trend into the weekend, and next week.

Mardi Gras

The largest celebration of Mardi Gras in Texas begins Friday in Galveston, and runs over the next two weekends. This year I’m excited to say that Matt and I will be the grand marshals for a parade on the second weekend, the Ben E Keith Parade on Saturday March 1, at 4 pm CT. More information on the route can be found here. We’re excited to see everyone.

Our parade is two weeks from now, but we can begin to get a sense of the weather for opening weekend of Mardi Gras. Friday looks to be chilly, with temperatures in the upper 40s, and gray skies. There will be a slight chance of rain on Friday afternoon and evening. Saturday will be warmer, in the 50s, on Galveston Island, but with a decent chance of rain during the daytime. Sunday looks pretty nice, likely with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 60s. The forecast for the following weekend, of Saturday March 1, is hazier. But temperatures do look to be fairly warm.

Spring is around the corner?

There is no question that this week is going to be cold in Houston, with much of the area likely to see a freeze on Thursday morning. The chill will linger into the weekend. But after that? Next week looks considerably warmer and then we’re on into March. We cannot definitively say that this week will bring our last freezing temperatures of the 2024-2025 winter season, but I think it’s a distinct possibility. So if you like winter, enjoy this week. And if you’re tired of the colder weather, change is on the way.

Monday

Temperatures are in the upper 30s to lower 40s across Houston this morning, and we’re headed toward a fine day. Expect highs in the lower 60s with plenty of sunshine today. Light winds will shift from the northeast to southeast as we return to an onshore, warmer flow. As a result we will see increasing clouds this evening, and low temperatures tonight only falling into the lower 50s.

Tuesday

This will be a cloudy, warmer day with highs of around 70 degrees. We’ll see a chance of light to moderate showers for much of the day, but I don’t anticipate anything too disruptive. A cold front will approach the area during the evening hours, and we could see a broken line of showers and thunderstorms move through the area between 6 pm and midnight. Overall accumulations for most of the region through Tuesday night should be on the order of 0.5 inch. Drier and much colder air will filter into the area after midnight, leading to cold conditions on Wednesday morning of around 40 degrees.

Wednesday

This will be a cold winter day, with partly sunny skies and gusty northerly winds. Highs may reach the upper 40s before temperatures plunge on Wednesday night. At this time I expect lows of about 30 degrees in the city of Houston—hence our post on Sunday about expecting a light freeze rather than a hard freeze—as skies clear out some overnight. Some well-inland areas will likely see temperatures in the mid- to upper-20s.

Thursday

This should be a mostly sunny, chilly day, with high temperatures in the mid-40s. Expect another cold night, although temperatures should be a couple of degrees warmer on Thursday night than Wednesday night.

Friday

Clouds return Friday, and this should help to hold highs in the low- to mid-40s for much of Houston. As atmospheric moisture levels start to recover some, we could see some rain chances later on Friday or Friday night, although accumulations look slight.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

We’ll begin a warming trend this weekend that will continue int next week. There will be a chance of light to moderate showers on Saturday, with high temperatures near 50 degrees in Houston. Lows on Saturday night will fall to around 40 degrees with clearing skies. As noted in the Mardi Gras outlook above, Sunday looks sunny and fine, with highs in the vicinity of 60 degrees.

Highs for most of next week should slot into the 70s, with mild nights in the 50s and 60s. It really should feel spring-like for the rest of the month of February.

In brief: There has been a lot of uncertainty about the extent to which the coldest air from this coming week’s Arctic freeze will push all the way down to the coast. It now looks like Houston will be spared the very coldest conditions, so be thinking more along the lines of a light freeze in the city rather than a hard freeze.

Good morning on a beautiful, if chilly Sunday morning. We’re just jumping into your timeline with a weekend update because we finally have some higher confidence in how cold temperatures will get this coming week. If you recall, during the second half of last week, in our forecasts, Matt and I were hedging our bets on somewhere between very cold (low 20s) and not quite so cold (low 30s). At this point we’re leaning toward the milder end of the spectrum, which is good because it would likely spare the majority of the Houston metro area from a hard freeze.

Forecast quick look

Today is going to be cold, with highs in the 50s, and we’ll see a night with temperatures near freezing on Monday morning. Inland areas may even see a light freeze. But then we’re going to see a warmup on Monday and Tuesday, with highs potentially reaching 70 degrees. Rain showers are likely ahead of the next front on Tuesday, which will send temperatures plunging on Tuesday night. The big question has been how much of the Artic air that is going to spill into the lower United States will make it all the way down to the Texas coast. The answer, at this point, seems to be that the coldest air is going to get shunted off to the east.

Thursday morning freeze

We’ll have full details in our Monday forecast, but the bottom line is that low temperatures in Houston on the coldest morning next week, Thursday, are likely to be closer to 30 degrees than 20 degrees. Some areas south of Interstate 10 may not even freeze. Some areas along and north of Highway 105 may still see lows of 25 degrees or below. So the bottom line is that yes, it is going to get cold this week. But not as cold as we experienced in January, and with no precipitation in the cards during the coldest time periods, impacts will likely be minimal. More tomorrow!

In brief: Houston should strap in for a stretch of ups and downs in the temperature department culminating in a return to winter-like cold next week. In between, a slight chance of strong storms east of Houston Saturday, and another round of rain Tuesday into Wednesday. Our biggest question mark is exactly how cold it gets next week.

Happy Valentine’s Day to all! Of course, we don’t need a singular day out of the year to know you love us. We love you too. (No, but seriously, we always want to share our appreciation of your support, so thank you). If you love warm weather or you love cold weather or loathe either, we have something in the forecast for you.

Today & tonight

There are some lower and mid-level clouds moving across the region this morning, as warmer, more humid air is trying to begin returning to the region. While the sun may poke out here and there, look for mostly a cloudy-ish day. A few showers or a very isolated thunderstorm may move through later this afternoon. The vast majority of the day should be dry, however. Highs will eventually reach the upper-50s, though it may not occur until later in the evening due to the clouds. In fact, temperatures should actually keep rising tonight until they reach the mid-60s on Saturday morning.

Saturday

The main concern for Saturday will be severe weather potential. We are fairly confident that the bulk, if not all severe weather will remain to our east tomorrow. If you are traveling into Louisiana or Mississippi, there could be a fairly noteworthy severe weather outbreak, however.

That said, we will likely still see showers and storms around the Houston area throughout the day but in a bit of a disjointed, improv, hit and miss type fashion. Look for that throughout the day, likely ending as perhaps a narrow line of developing thunderstorms when a cold front exits the area after 3 or 4 PM. Temperatures will push well into the 70s on Saturday, possibly even near 80 degrees in spots south of I-10 or to our east.

Sunday

Oh, you’ll be greeted by a casual 35 degree drop in temperatures on Sunday morning, from just shy of 80 to near 40 degrees. Some areas will likely dip into the 30s too. It will also be on the breezy side, especially near the coast with Galveston likely seeing some wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph. So expect Sunday to feel a lot more like winter. The winds will lighten up and temps should warm into the 50s or even near 60 though, so it won’t be too bad of an afternoon.

Monday & Tuesday

Monday, we rise to near 60 degrees, while Tuesday should push into the mid-60s. Watch for showers by Tuesday afternoon.

Back to winter

A much more aggressive return to winter is in the cards for later next week. The showers on Tuesday afternoon will precede a storm system that passes by on Wednesday morning. To be frank, the model handling of this storm has left a lot to be desired, as there have been a lot of run to run shifts, with even some model runs implying rain ends as sleet or snow north of Houston. That’s not what we’d call the “base case” outcome, but it’s out there as a minor possibility at least. Whatever the case, we have a couple more days to pin this down, so I’d just ask you to bear with us.

Because of the uncertainty we know that while it will likely get quite cold later next week, we aren’t quite entirely sure of the amplitude yet. I would suspect that Houston proper sees upper-20s for low temperatures, while outlying areas would be somewhat colder. But there is a wide variety of possible outcomes to the point where realistically Houston could be as cold as 20 degrees or as “mild” as 35 degrees by Thursday morning. We are fairly confident that Thursday morning would be the coldest morning.

If you live north of Houston, get your plant coverings prepared once again. In Houston and points south, just keep watching and waiting. More to come on this.

In brief: The last two weeks have felt very un-winterlike in Houston, but that has changed with the arrival of the first of three strong fronts. Among the things we’re watching for is the potential for a few storms on Saturday, and very cold temperatures during the second half of next week.

The twelve days of February

We started the month of February on an incredible hot streak, including four consecutive days of setting or tying record high temperatures. So far this month, the average monthly temperatures has been 15 degrees above normal, and it’s felt like we’ve been in the middle of spring rather than winter. However, we are now about to flip the script.

The remainder of the month should bring near-normal and below-normal temperatures, with the potential for freezing temperatures here or there. We are not going to cancel out the extremely warm start to the month, but Houston will feel like winter again—which it should, because we are still in the middle of February.

Thursday

It’s cold this morning, and it won’t warm up much. Temperatures range from the upper 30s north of Houston to the upper 40s right along the coast. Although we should see some pockets of sunshine today, a stiff northerly wind (at times gusting up to 30 mph) will make the high temperature of about 50 degrees still feel rather cold. Conditions will remain breezy tonight, as winds shift to come from the east. Expect lows to fall into the mid-40s in Houston.

Friday

Expect a mostly cloudy day, with temperatures a bit warmer, in the lower 60s. As the flow turns more southerly, we’ll see an increase in atmospheric moisture that could bring some spotty, light showers back into the region. However, overall rain chances appear to be fairly low. Temperatures will not cool off much on Friday night, in fact they’ll start rising after midnight as we continue to see a warmer, southerly flow.

Saturday

This will be a warmer, potentially unsettled day with high temperatures in the upper 70s. There will be a chance of light showers during the daytime, potentially with a line of showers and thunderstorms passing through during the afternoon or early evening hours. Overall accumulations don’t look super high (likely less than half an inch), and while there is the potential for some damaging winds the dynamics are not particularly favorable for severe storms. We’ll keep an eye on it. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the lower 40s.

Sunday and Monday

This will be a cold day, albeit one with mostly sunny skies. Expect breezy conditions and highs perhaps in the low 50s. Expect a cold night on Sunday, with temperatures in Houston dropping into the 30s, and a light freeze possible for some inland areas. On Monday, President’s Day, we can expect more sunshine, and somewhat warmer temperatures in the upper 50s to 60 degrees. It should be a nice day for kids to be off from school.

Next week

After chilly conditions on Monday, Houston will warm back up on Tuesday and Wednesday. And then? Well, a very serious outbreak of Arctic air is going to move into the central United States. The question is how far the bulk of this air mass drops into Texas, and whether it reaches the Gulf coast. As a result, there is a wide variance in low temperatures during the second half of next week, and I would say anything from mid-20s to lower-40s is possible in Houston. Certainly it is something we’ll be watching for you.