In brief: The last two weeks have felt very un-winterlike in Houston, but that has changed with the arrival of the first of three strong fronts. Among the things we’re watching for is the potential for a few storms on Saturday, and very cold temperatures during the second half of next week.

The twelve days of February

We started the month of February on an incredible hot streak, including four consecutive days of setting or tying record high temperatures. So far this month, the average monthly temperatures has been 15 degrees above normal, and it’s felt like we’ve been in the middle of spring rather than winter. However, we are now about to flip the script.

The remainder of the month should bring near-normal and below-normal temperatures, with the potential for freezing temperatures here or there. We are not going to cancel out the extremely warm start to the month, but Houston will feel like winter again—which it should, because we are still in the middle of February.

Thursday

It’s cold this morning, and it won’t warm up much. Temperatures range from the upper 30s north of Houston to the upper 40s right along the coast. Although we should see some pockets of sunshine today, a stiff northerly wind (at times gusting up to 30 mph) will make the high temperature of about 50 degrees still feel rather cold. Conditions will remain breezy tonight, as winds shift to come from the east. Expect lows to fall into the mid-40s in Houston.

Friday

Expect a mostly cloudy day, with temperatures a bit warmer, in the lower 60s. As the flow turns more southerly, we’ll see an increase in atmospheric moisture that could bring some spotty, light showers back into the region. However, overall rain chances appear to be fairly low. Temperatures will not cool off much on Friday night, in fact they’ll start rising after midnight as we continue to see a warmer, southerly flow.

Saturday

This will be a warmer, potentially unsettled day with high temperatures in the upper 70s. There will be a chance of light showers during the daytime, potentially with a line of showers and thunderstorms passing through during the afternoon or early evening hours. Overall accumulations don’t look super high (likely less than half an inch), and while there is the potential for some damaging winds the dynamics are not particularly favorable for severe storms. We’ll keep an eye on it. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the lower 40s.

Sunday and Monday

This will be a cold day, albeit one with mostly sunny skies. Expect breezy conditions and highs perhaps in the low 50s. Expect a cold night on Sunday, with temperatures in Houston dropping into the 30s, and a light freeze possible for some inland areas. On Monday, President’s Day, we can expect more sunshine, and somewhat warmer temperatures in the upper 50s to 60 degrees. It should be a nice day for kids to be off from school.

Next week

After chilly conditions on Monday, Houston will warm back up on Tuesday and Wednesday. And then? Well, a very serious outbreak of Arctic air is going to move into the central United States. The question is how far the bulk of this air mass drops into Texas, and whether it reaches the Gulf coast. As a result, there is a wide variance in low temperatures during the second half of next week, and I would say anything from mid-20s to lower-40s is possible in Houston. Certainly it is something we’ll be watching for you.

In brief: The first of several cold fronts will arrive in Houston today, bringing with it a decent chance of rain and possibly a few storms. We’ll warm back up on Saturday before another, stronger front knocks most of Houston into the 30s by Monday of next week.

Wednesday

After an abnormally warm start to the month, Houston will see the first substantial frontal passage of February later today. We can expect a (probably broken) line of showers and thunderstorms to move through the area this morning before noon, from west to east, before drier air moves in from the northwest this afternoon. I don’t expect anything too wild and crazy from the rain showers, but it’s Houston so be prepared for the possibility of some thunderstorms and briefly heavy rainfall. Highs today will crest at about 70 degrees this morning before dropping into the 60s this afternoon, and the 50s this evening.

Thursday

Lows on Thursday morning will be in the low 40s, and with a chilly northerly flow expect high temperatures to only climb into the mid-50s. We will see mostly sunny skies, however. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the 40s as winds turn more easterly.

Friday

Skies will be partly sunny on Friday, with highs likely climbing into the mid-60s. As atmospheric moisture levels rise we could see a few scattered showers develop later in the day. Friday night looks to be mild, with lows only dropping into the upper 50s or lower 60s.

Saturday

Humidity levels will spike on Saturday, with high temperatures likely pushing toward 80 degrees as we see a surge of warmer air ahead of the next cool front. Although the timing is still a bit uncertain, this front likely moves through on Saturday afternoon or evening, and it should bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms with it. We’ll see about the dynamics for storms, but right now they don’t appear to be overly favorable in the Houston metro area. Lows on Saturday night are likely to plunge in the wake of the front, dropping to about 40 degrees.

Sunday

Expect clear, sunny, and cold conditions with high temperatures of around 50 degrees. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the 30s for much of Houston, and we cannot rule out a light freeze for some inland areas.

Next week

We’ll be chilly on Monday and Monday night before a warmup next week, followed by what appears to be another fairly strong cold front on Tuesday or Wednesday. This will, once again, bring the chance of a light freeze to Houston by Thursday morning or so. Winter is not over yet.

In brief: Today’s post discusses the likelihood of widespread rainfall today and Wednesday ahead of the first of several decently strong cold fronts. Speaking of which, there’s the possibility of a freeze over the next 10 days, so we don’t advise planting tender plants just yet.

Winter is not over yet

Houston has had an anomalously warm start to February, with an average temperature of 72.1 degrees. This is a shocking 16.2 degrees above normal through the first third of the month. Beginning Wednesday we’re going to enter a cooler, more seasonal pattern. Looking ahead, global models are pointing to the possibility of two stronger cold fronts next week.

The first of these arrives Sunday, and the second possibly by next Thursday or so. One or maybe both of these could drive Houston’s lows into the 30s, and there’s a distinct chance of a light freeze about 10 days from now. I’m not saying it will happen, but it’s definitely possible. So hold off on gardening for a little while longer.

Tuesday

Today is likely to be a fairly wet day. We don’t really have any significant flooding concerns, but streets could pond over amid some of the stronger showers or thunderstorms. The rain will be somewhat scattered this morning before showers become more widespread this afternoon as the atmosphere turns unstable. Showers will likely peak in coverage this afternoon before rain chances diminish somewhat overnight. This won’t be the end of the rain, as we are likely to see another round of showers on Wednesday morning along with the front.

Temperatures this morning are generally in the upper 60s across much of Houston, and they’re going to remain there all day with cloudy skies and the potential for rain. Winds will be gusty, varying from the south, east, and northwest. Lows tonight will only fall into the low- to mid-60s for most locations.

Wednesday

Additional showers are possible on Wednesday morning and into the early afternoon hours, ahead of the actual cool front. Between now and Wednesday afternoon I expect most of Houston to receive 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, although amounts could be a little bit higher for areas well inland, including The Woodlands and points north. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s for most before drier air moves in during the evening hours. Temperatures will start to fall before midnight, and by early Thursday morning temperatures for most of the area should dip into the upper 40s.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of partly sunny days, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Thursday will see gusty, northerly winds and Thursday night will be quite chilly, in the low- to mid-40s. Friday night will be a bit warmer, in the 50s, as the flow turns more southerly.

Saturday

A warmer day, with highs in the mid-70s. We’ll again see the potential for some widespread (mostly light?) showers ahead of the next front. Accumulations don’t look overly impressive, but bear in mind the potential for rain if you’re planning outdoor activities. Colder air likely arrives overnight, pushing lows on Sunday morning into the 40s.

Sunday

Sunshine returns for the second half of the weekend, but with a colder, northerly flow high temperatures will likely be in the 50s. Lows on Sunday night could drop into the upper 30s in Houston, give or take. We’ll see.

Next week

Our roller coaster weather rolls on, with highs by the middle of next week likely rebounding into the 70s. However, most of our guidance points toward a fairly strong front for the second half of next week. This is when I think there’s at least a decent chance to see a widespread freeze in Houston.

In brief: Today’s post looks ahead to when Houston will start to feel more like winter again (the answer for most of us is Thursday morning). Additionally, with the potential for significant budget cuts on the horizon, we discuss how NOAA and the National Weather Service provide considerable value.

The value of the National Weather Service

There has been a lot of talk about cutting the US government via the “Department of Government Efficiency,” which is ostensibly assessing the performance of each US agency to improve its output. There are a lot of strong feelings about the actions of this body, spearheaded by Elon Musk, and it is beyond the scope of this website to judge its value. Suffice it to say we believe there is bloat in the US government that ought to be addressed, but at the same time US agencies provide valuable services, and most civil servants are trying to do the right thing.

This morning I want to write a few words about the value brought by the federal government’s weather and climate agency, NOAA, in general; and one of its organizations, the National Weather Service, in particular. We strongly believe that NOAA and the National Weather Service provide tremendous value to American taxpayers that cannot easily be replicated by private companies—most definitely including Space City Weather.

NOAA collects an extraordinary amount of data about our planet’s atmosphere and oceans every day. They send hundreds of weather balloons into the skies. They have a vast network of buoys and weather stations. They operate state-of-the-art radars. When there is a hurricane, NOAA and its partners operate a fleet of aircraft and professionals that fly into the maw of the storm to gather vital data that is used to make warnings, and improve forecasts.

It not only collects this data, but NOAA plays an important role in weather modeling, operating one of the world’s premiere computational forecast systems. Moreover, its high-resolution models are vital to predicting thunderstorms and severe weather on a local scale, as well as the evolution of hurricanes. Matt and I use these high-resolution models every day. And NOAA shares all of this data and information, for free, with the world to improve weather prediction.

During hurricane season, much of the world looks to the National Hurricane Center in Miami for actionable information. But within NOAA there is also the Storm Prediction Center, which forecasts tornado outbreaks and other severe weather; the Weather Prediction Center, which forecasts rainfall amounts; and of course the National Weather Service, which has offices around the country, including one in the Houston-Galveston area. Dedicated meteorologists there provide around-the-clock forecasts and issue life-saving warnings. Matt and I know these people, and they work really hard for all of us.

Local decisionmakers and Emergency Management System officials in every city and county in America rely on local forecast officers for everything from closing roads and schools, to calling for evacuations and or opening cooling centers, and so much more.

So can’t we just privatize all of this? Not easily. Most private weather companies do not collect essential data about our atmosphere or oceans, or issue public warnings. Typically, they provide proprietary forecasts that tailor and fine-tune public information for specific applications beyond the core mission of the National Weather Service. No private company could provide high quality forecasts if not for the data that NOAA freely disseminates.

What about just getting forecasts from the app on my phone? Well, a lot of the weather apps on your phone are serviced by back-end data provided by the National Weather Service (including ours), or the models operated by NOAA. And those fancy radars on your phone telling you when to stay put? Those are operated by NOAA.

The bottom line is that it would be a bad idea to take a hammer and start whacking NOAA and the National Weather Service. If there is bloat, or fraud, or waste, by all means root it out. But if we destroy the core mission of these valuable federal weather services, we will all lose.

Monday

Temperatures this morning are somewhat cooler, with a weak front having pushed into Houston and all the way down to the coast. The key word here is weak, and the front’s impact won’t last for long, especially for areas south of I-10. With that said, temperatures today will generally be in the upper 60s, with cloudy skies helping to keep us on the cooler side. Winds will be out of the east this morning, but should gradually turn southeast this afternoon and evening, and this southerly flow will only allow lows to drop into the low- to mid-60s for much of Houston.

Tuesday

Weather on Tuesday will be warmer and more dynamic. Highs will reach near 80 degrees for much of the area, with mostly cloudy skies. There will be a chance for some light showers on Tuesday morning, with an increasing chance of rain and the potential for some thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening as the upper atmosphere becomes more perturbed. Rain chances slacken a bit Tuesday night, with lows dropping into the upper 60s.

Wednesday

This will be another warm day, with highs in the 70s to 80 degrees. We’re going to see another chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cool front, which should arrive later in the day. It is not entirely clear how long it will take the cooler and drier air to move down through the area, but Wednesday night will be notably cooler for areas inland of Interstate 10, with cooler air probably coming in for coastal areas later.

Thursday

This will be a notably cooler day, with highs likely topping out in the upper 50s, with a mixture of sunshine and clouds. We can’t rule out a few lingering showers. Lows on Thursday night will probably drop into the 40s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

At this point, it looks like we’ll start warming up again on Friday and especially Saturday, with highs climbing back into the 70s by Saturday, with rising humidity levels. Another cold front appears likely to pass through the area on Saturday night-ish, which will push us back into winter-like temperatures on Sunday, with highs likely only in the upper 50s or so. The details on this are a bit fuzzy, but basically Saturday should be warm, and Sunday quite a bit cooler with a better chance for clear skies.

Next week

Our roller coaster weather continues, most likely, with a succession of fronts bringing varying weather conditions from spring- to winter-like. Several readers with itchy gardening inclinations have asked about the likelihood of another freeze in the Houston area this year, and that’s a topic I’ll address in tomorrow’s post.