In brief: The forecast for this week is fairly boring. If you like dynamic change you’re out of luck, as our days for at least the next week will be rather warm, sunny, but with modestly drier air. Nights will be somewhat cool, but definitely not chilly. Although rain chances are essentially zero for the next seven days, but there starts to be some hope for precipitation after that.

A cool spell ends

The second half of last week produced the region’s first run of cooler-than-normal temperatures since early September, with a couple of days with high temperatures in the 70s, and a few nights in the 40s and 50s. This provided a nice preview of fall-like weather, but our daytime highs are headed back into the upper 80s later this week.

However our nights will remain a touch cooler, with slightly drier air from the northeast helping to cool us off into the low- to mid-60s most nights. As for rain, we’ve been talking about how dry things have been, and that is not going to change this week. However, I have some hope for some change in a little more than a week from now.

Monday

High temperatures will reach the mid-80s today, with sunny skies. Winds will generally be from the east, at about 5 to 10 mph. Skies will be mostly sunny, but with dewpoints in the 50s, the air will feel fairly dry. Low temperatures will drop into the lower 60s tonight. Clear skies should continue to prevail.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

There won’t be much change in the weather this week after today. Each day will see mostly sunny skies, with high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s near the coast, upper-80s for much of the city, and about 90 degrees for inland areas. The air will be modestly dry, and this will help push highs so warm (90-degree days in late October are no unheard of, but they’re quite rare). Lows will drop into the low- to mid-60s for most locations away from the coast, so nights and evenings will be pleasant.

Saturday and Sunday

Not much changes this weekend. A (very) weak front may push highs back down into the mid-80s, and take a degree or two off nighttime temperatures. But we should continue to see sunny days and cool-ish nights. If you have outdoor plans for the weekend, you can make them with confidence.

Next week

The forecast for next week is uncertain. There are hints of a front in the Monday timeframe, or possibly later in the week, but I don’t have great confidence in any of that happening for sure. However, we may finally see a break from a pattern in which high pressure prevails. Most of our modeling guidance does suggest that Houston may start to see some better rain chances by around Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Now that’s nine or ten days into the future, so I would not set out your cisterns just yet. But it does provide some hope after a very dry fall.

In brief: Today’s post assesses the emerging drought across the Houston region, and takes a peek at the winter outlook to see whether we are likely to see relief in the coming weeks and months. We also discuss the fine weather in store for this weekend, and the rather hot conditions expected next week.

Houston enters drought

For the first time since last December, the majority of the Houston area has returned to drought conditions as measured by the US Drought Monitor. For now, most of the region has been classified as a “moderate” drought, but even with shortening days and cooler temperatures, the trend lines are not good.

It’s been a weird year. Houston has fallen into a drought even though the region remains about 10 inches above normal rainfall totals for this year. That’s because we had an exceptionally wet spring and first half of summer, punctuated by Hurricane Beryl in July. But since the beginning of August, and especially since early September, Houston has been almost bone dry. This has coincided with almost uniformly sunny days and warm-to-hot temperatures. As a result, we’ve gone from very wet soils to increasingly dry ones.

So what happens next? The next week looks to remain dry, with only very low rain chances. Maybe the pattern changes after that, but at this point there is no strong signal in the models, and persistence is the most likely outcome. Maybe we’ll see a decent shot of rain around the end of the month, but again this is really at the limit of what our best modeling can predict.

Looking deeper into fall and winter, we see a slowly developing La Niña in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Historically, this favors a drier winter across Texas. The only good thing I can say about a drought during the winter months is that it does not take all that much rain to break it—with shorter days and a lower Sun angle, a little rain goes a long ways. Unfortunately, I don’t even see a little rain in the foreseeable forecast at this time. We’ll continue to look for signs that is changing.

Friday

For my tastes at least, Thursday was one of the very nicest days of the year weather-wise. We’re now going to start warming up, but with dewpoints generally in the upper 50s the air will continue to feel comfortable. At least by Houston standards. High temperatures today will be about 80 degrees, with mostly sunny skies, and easterly winds at perhaps 10 mph with higher gusts. Lows tonight will drop into the low 60s for most locations away from the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see high temperatures in the lower 80s, for the most part, with sunny skies. Low temperatures should continue to drop into the lower 60s, which generally means comfortable if not cool weather. Really, we have no concerns for you if you’re planning any outdoor activities. Just be mindful of the increasing number of burn bans across the region, due to the emerging drought discussed above.

Next week

Pretty much all of next week looks warm, with highs starting out in the mid-80s and ending up in the upper 80s. Some locations probably will hit 90 degrees toward the end of next week. We’ll see a few more clouds in the sky, and rising humidity levels. Unfortunately, the last full week of October is unlikely to feel fall-like at all. The heat may extend into next weekend.

In brief: Temperatures bottomed out at 47 degrees in Houston at Bush Intercontinental Airport this morning. This will be our only cold night with this front, but our conditions should remain pleasant through the weekend before we warm up a fair amount next week. Fall, alas, is not here to stay for the present time.

Thursday morning temperatures

It felt brisk in Houston this morning for the first time in six months. Officially, at Bush Intercontinental Airport, the low reached 47 degrees. Some inland areas reached the lower 40s, and even coastal areas dropped into the upper 50s. It was our region’s coldest night since March 28. If you liked it, well, I’m sorry to say the chilly air will be fleeting. We’re headed back to somewhat warmer conditions starting tomorrow. (This helps explains the lateness of this morning’s post—I took advantage of the cooler weather to enjoy a nice, long run this morning. OK, maybe enjoy is too strong of a word. But at least I survived it).

Thursday

Today will be a fine, fall day with highs generally in the low 70s and sunny skies. Winds will pick up a bit this afternoon, perhaps gusting to 20 mph from the east. Tonight will be warmer than Wednesday night, but the lows in much of Houston should still dip into the upper 50s. The coast will, of course, be warmer.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend looks quite nice, with high temperatures of around 80 degrees, lows in the 60s, and mostly sunny skies. Dewpoints will be rising with the return of the onshore flow, but our weather won’t exactly be sticky. Daily rain chances are not zero, but they’re probably less than 10 percent, so plan your outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

We’ll start the week in the mid-80s, but will probably see highs reach the upper-80s toward the end of the week. We’re going to be fairly warm, with partly cloudy skies, for much of next week, with borderline high levels of humidity. In contrast to today, next week will definitely not feel particularly fall-like. There are hints of another front by around some time next weekend, with potentially some rain showers, but nothing I’d bet on with any confidence. I know we need rain, and we’ll have more to say about that tomorrow.

Space Happy Hour

This has nothing to do with weather, but the Space Happy Hour people are hosting their inaugural event in Houston later this month at Space Center Houston. This is a gathering of space industry professionals and they typically put on a first-class party. For their first Houston event the Space Happy Hour is featuring me, and a night of VIP networking, drinks, and access to iconic space artifacts. You can find out more information and purchase tickets here, if interested.

In brief: The first fairly strong front of fall has arrived in Houston, and dewpoints are plummeting this morning. We’ll see a rather cold night, with lows on Thursday morning reaching the upper 40s in parts of Houston. Temperatures start to recover by the weekend, and next week looks rather warm and muggy.

Update on record highs

Houston shattered another record high temperature on Tuesday, with a mark of 98 degrees. This broke the previous record of 92 degrees for October 15, set in 2019. Again, breaking a record by six degrees is remarkable, and not in a good way. This was the third record high of the month, after the city tied a previous record back on October 6. The average temperature so far this October is running 5.0 degrees above normal.

Wednesday

Fortunately, we can put talk of record highs aside for a few days after a front blew into Houston overnight. This was a dry frontal passage so there was no rain accompanying it, and we are now seeing much drier and cooler air moving in. Temperatures this morning are generally in the mid- to upper-60s across Houston, with dewpoints around 40 degrees. Skies will be partly cloudy today, and with the influx of cooler air our highs will probably max out in the low- to mid-70s. Winds from the northeast will be brisk, maxing out at 25 mph or perhaps even a bit higher. Lows tonight will drop to around 50 degrees in central Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Thursday

It will, dare I say, feel cold on Thursday morning? With sunny skies we should warm into the mid- to upper-70s however. This will simply be a fine, fall day. Lows on Thursday night should drop into the upper 50s for most locations except the immediate coast.

Friday

Expect mostly sunny weather and highs of around 80 degrees. Winds will be from the east at about 10 mph with higher gusts.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect partly to mostly sunny skies this weekend, with high temperatures generally in the low 80s. With the return of a southerly flow on Friday, humidity levels will be recovering. Nighttime temperatures drop only into the mid-60s.

Next week

Most of next week looks fairly warm and humid. I’d expect highs in the upper 80s, with muggy nights in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. Skies will be partly to possibly even mostly cloudy, but I don’t see much of a chance of rain until at least the latter part of next week. That’s also when we might see another front, but that is far from certain.

The bottom line is that if you’re looking for fall-like weather, soak up the next few days. Because after that it’s going to feel fairly warm and muggy for awhile once again.