If it’s almost the end of the month, that means Eric and Matt have once again scrambled to answer your most urgent questions. And given the busy weather month we’ve had in May, this edition of our Q&A is particularly timely. Got your own queries? Hit the Feedback button in the blog’s sidebar, respond here with a comment on hit us up on our many, many social network feeds: X, Facebook, Instagram, Threads, Mastodon and Bluesky. We’re everywhere, and now that includes LinkedIn!
–Dwight
Q. I feel like y’all are being TOO underwhelming. I definitely get not overhyping the weather. Which is absolutely why I started following you. But the last three storms you’ve underhyped and I was not prepared. I’d rather be over prepared than under. I didn’t at all expect the insanity that Oak Forest got on [May 16]. Thank goodness my cousin texted me to take shelter minutes before the storm hit. Please consider a middle ground.
A. This isn’t a question. Next one, please.
Just kidding. It’s a fair comment. The reality is that just as we don’t ‘over-hype’ the weather we also try not to ‘under-hype’ the forecast. Matt and I really are trying to simply be as right as we can be. You mentioned under-hyping the last three storms. That’s not true. On May 13, we predicted significant hail could accompany strong thunderstorms as they moved through the Houston area. Some areas, we said, may see hail as “large as an apple.” In reality, no one saw much, if any hail that day. I realize that pointing out how we missed on another forecast is perhaps not the best defense of our record. But my point is that we do not actively seek to under-hype storms. We are striving, always, for the middle ground you espouse. Some days, however, it’s damn hard to find.
I’m also sorry you felt unprepared for the derecho that slammed Oak Forest and other parts of Houston. We wrote about that recently, and some of the learnings we are taking away from it.
–Eric
Q: During the recent extraordinary Houston area (and beyond) weather phenomenon, is there any consideration that “microbursts” were present?
A: Yes, in our post about derechos, we noted that basically, they’re gigantic bursts of straight-line winds. In a sense, you could probably refer to a derecho event almost like a macroburst, which is wind damage on a scale greater than two and a half miles long. In reality, within this complex storm, there were probably a mix of macrobursts and smaller-scale microbursts, in addition to a couple tornadoes. We did not exactly see uniform damage across the area, but clearly some neighborhoods were harder hit than others. The more meaningful answer is that it’s all semantics in a situation like that, and the widespread damage is damage.
–Matt
Q. This storm has sobered us for what we are in for this hurricane season. How do you prepare? What do we need to keep in stock? What food should we store up?
A. Whoa, hurricane season officially starts Saturday! Fortunately, it doesn’t look like things will be insane right out of the gate. But there’s no doubt it’s going to be a busy season. The most important thing you can do right now is understand your vulnerabilities. Is your home at risk of storm surge because you live near the coast, and at a low elevation? Are you at risk of inland flooding? Is your home built to withstand hurricane-force winds, i.e. does your roof have hurricane clips? Are you willing to go without electricity for a week or three in September? All of these questions are important to determine in what circumstances you would evacuate. And after you understand when you would evacuate, you should make a plan for where you would go, what you would take, and how you will get there.
More generally, I find the preparation section on the Ready.gov website to be useful in making plans for an evacuation or to ride out the storm.
–Eric
Q: Is there any connection between the kind of intense spring weather we’ve been having and how hot the summer will be? Or are we most apt to have a drought when spring weather is severe?
A: The simple answer is not really. If you look at enough meteorological variables, you can find loose correlations among a lot of things. But correlation does not always (or often) mean causation. The best proxy to an “intense” spring may be storm reports in Harris County. If I take the five busiest years prior to this one from March through May, I can find 2007, 2019, 2020, 2023, and 2009 as my analogs. Combined, you get the map here:
So yes, those active springs have led to hot summers on net. 2023 was our hottest summer on record, 2019 was the fifth hottest, 2009 was the seventh hottest, and 2020 was the tenth hottest. But years like 2011, 2022, and 2010 are on the top ten list as well and saw few severe reports in spring. In terms of drought, it gets a little noisier with some dry years mixed in with wetter ones. So no real solid signal.
We expect a hot summer this year, but it’s not because of the intense spring thunderstorms. The combination of a very warm Gulf, a post El Niño warm hangover, climate change, and other factors buoy confidence in the hot summer expectation. Severe weather does not. But it does make for a fun exercise.
–Matt
Q: I’m a bit confused about the tornado warning terms used here in Texas. It seems like there is a different meaning to the terms than what I am accustomed to. Could you clarify the Texas tornado warning system in one of your posts? ( As a Midwestern Indiana girl, I learned that a tornado watch was when the conditions were likely for a tornado and a warning was when a tornado was spotted, heading your way and you needed to take cover immediately.)
A: The tornado watch vs. warning system is the same anywhere in America. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for possible tornadoes. A tornado warning means that forecasters have identified a likely tornado or an in-progress tornado via radar or visual observations from people in the field. In a nutshell, a watch means you should pay attention while a warning means you should take immediate action.
We get a lot of tornado warnings in the Houston area. Since 2020, there have been 136 of them issued by the NWS Houston office. The typical tornado we get here is a little different than what you see in the Plains or Midwest. Our tornadoes here are most often quick spin ups in squall lines (what we call QLCS tornadoes) or brief south to north moving supercells in the spring or fall ahead of cold fronts. Also, tropical systems. Harvey alone in 2017 led to over 140 tornado warnings. The QLCS and tropical tornadoes are a bit like playing whack-a-mole because they usually flare up and weaken rather quickly or sometimes look like they’re about to produce a tornado and do not. In the Midwest, you often have a little time to see them coming. Here, it’s just a different reality.
That said, after the derecho this month, I think that it’s apparent that folks should take these warnings seriously, even if they are inconvenient at times.
–Matt
Q. Can you please not use an apple as a comparison tool for the size of hail possible? Is it an gala apple? Is it a red apple? Is it a green apple? Is it a honeycrisp apple? Is it a pink lady apple? Is it some random miniature apple? Or is it ping pong to baseball sized?? 1.5 to 3.5 inches wide or 3.8 to 8.9 centimeters wide is easily accessible to most people. And fun fact the National Geodetic Survey (NGS) has updated their definition of a foot as of 2022 to better match international standards. An apple is completely subjective.
A. You forgot the most important argument in favor of apples. They’re delicious.
But just like my Granny Smith, you make a good point. The next time I’m writing a post on my McIntosh computer, and we’re expecting hail, I’ll try not to be so confuji in our terminology. Honey, I’ll try to be crisp in our language. Hope you find that apeeling.
–Eric
