In brief: The track for Hurricane Beryl has shifted northward during the last 24 hours, and a landfall is now expected near or south of Corpus Christi. This does increase the threat of significant impacts to the Greater Houston area, but we continue to think the system will be mostly manageable locally. Needless to say we’re following things closely.

Hurricane Beryl track changes

During the last 24 hours we have seen a significant move northward in the track forecast for Hurricane Beryl, which has just moved into the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. The storm, with 100 mph winds, has remained a little stronger than expected, and this supports the notion of a sharper northwestern turn in the coming days. This post will discuss the current thinking of Beryl, and its impacts to Houston’s weather early next week, which could now but a little more significant than anticipated.

In terms of additional coverage, we will share a post from The Eyewall here later this morning on the broader effects for Texas. And we’ll have an additional update this afternoon on the latest with Beryl. But first, a quick look at the forecast for this weekend.

Friday

Today will be our last hot and mostly sunny day for awhile, given the impending influx of tropical moisture. Look for highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees for most inland locations, with slightly cooler temperatures near the coast. Winds will be very light, perhaps at just 5 mph from the south. There is perhaps a 10 percent chance of afternoon showers. Lows tonight will drop to around 80 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain chances increase to about 50 percent on Saturday as a weak front approaches the Houston metro area from the north. This is not going to bring much (any, really) cooler or drier air into our region, but it should help increase cloud cover, and allow for air at the surface to rise. Rain accumulations don’t look crazy, more on the order of passing, scattered showers most likely. As a result of the cloud cover, look for highs in the mid-90s.

By Sunday our weather may start to become influenced by Beryl, but the storm is now not expected to come to the Texas coast until Monday morning. My best guess for Sunday is highs in the low 90s, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and perhaps a 50 percent chance of rain. This is unlikely to be heavy rainfall, as the threat of that probably holds off until Monday. Southeasterly winds will increase.

Hurricane Beryl’s track

The northward shift in Beryl’s track can be attributed to a stronger system over the last day or so, and something of a northward wobble on the Fourth of July. Our typically best performing models, including the GFS and European, and the hurricane specific models, have all shifted northward overnight. They now generally indicate a landfall between Brownsville and Corpus Christi about three days from now.

Where Beryl ultimately makes landfall will depend on how far the high pressure system over the southern United States retreats. The landfall location is complicated by the contour of the South Texas coastline, which is very nearly north-south relative to the Gulf of Mexico. This means that, as Beryl turns northwestward around the ridge of high pressure, even a relatively small deviation in course can change the landfall location significantly.

Regarding Houston, I would love to be able to tell you with certainty that Beryl will make landfall near or south of Corpus Christi. I truly think that will be the case. But as Beryl’s track has moved significantly in the last 24 hours that is not something I can guarantee you. The entire Texas coastline, for what it’s worth, lies in the National Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty.

Beryl’s intensity

Beryl made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, and will spend most of today traversing the Mexican peninsula before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico this evening or tonight, likely as a strong tropical storm. The storm will then have about two days, or a little longer, to re-strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico before making a final landfall late on Sunday night or, more probably, Monday.

Given that Beryl will have plenty of time over the Gulf, it is likely that the storm intensifies back into a hurricane. Nearly all of our guidance shows the system remaining a Category 1 hurricane as it nears the Texas coast, but certainly we cannot rule out a slightly stronger storm.

Houston impacts

At this time the Houston area is still unlikely to see severe impacts from Beryl, but obviously we are watching the situation closely due to the evolving track. I would anticipate about a 20 percent chance of Galveston experiencing tropical-storm force winds on Sunday or Monday, with lesser odds for inland areas. In terms of storm surge, at this point Beryl should remain far enough south to preclude a significant surge into Galveston Island and Galveston Bay. We are talking tides maybe a few feet higher than normal, not dissimilar to the effects of Tropical Storm Alberto a couple of weeks ago. Obviously we’ll monitor this closely.

What hasn’t changed much is the precipitation forecast. Much of the Houston area is still likely to see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over the coming week. Our concern remains the potential for higher bullseyes, driven the tropical nature of rainfall from Beryl, on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. That is something we have not had great confidence in predicting, and still don’t. But the bottom line is that there remains no signal for major flooding in the Houston area at this time.

Final thoughts

I realize some readers will be disconcerted by the changes in Beryl’s track. It has been a surprising move, but not one out of the realm of probability, and this is ultimately the nature of tropical weather. Matt and I don’t think there’s a great chance that Beryl comes inland into Texas north of Corpus Christi. But is there a chance that could happen? Yes. It is certainly higher than it was on Thursday when we looked at the data. We are at the point where the greater Houston region, including Galveston Island, should be wary of Beryl, but not overly worried. Expect multiple updates today to keep you as best informed as possible.

In brief: Happy Fourth of July! We have hot and sunny weather on tap for the holiday to celebrate the birth of America, and Friday will be hot as well before rain chances increase due to the movement of Hurricane Beryl into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. It still appears as though the system will track well to the south of Houston, with the only major impact being the potential for rain.

Thursday

High pressure will remain in place for a couple of more days, and that means mostly sunny skies and soaring temperatures in early July. Look for highs today in the upper 90s for much of Houston, away from the coast, with generally light southerly winds. There will be about a 10 percent chance of showers this afternoon along the seabreeze. By the time of fireworks this evening, temperatures will still be in the upper 80s, at least. Lows tonight will only fall to about 80 degrees.

Friday

Another day a lot like Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend and next week is predicated on the outlook for Hurricane Beryl, discussed below. Our confidence is increasing in this forecast, but it is possible there are still some subtle changes. Anyway, skies should be partly sunny on Saturday, with perhaps a 50 percent chance of light to moderate rainfall. Temperatures still have a chance to hit the mid- to upper-90s for some inland locations. Sunday will see partly to mostly cloudy skies, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. There is, again, a healthy chance of light-to-moderate rainfall.

Next week

The remnants of Beryl, and tropical moisture from another disturbance, should bring mostly cloudy skies and lower temperatures for much of next week. Daytime highs probably will be in the range of the upper-80s to lower-90s. Each day will have a medium to high chance of rain, with the potential for tropical downpours. In terms of rainfall accumulations, I’m not seeing any extreme signal that will lead us to issue an alert on our Space City Weather flood scale, but that could change. Overall, I expect much of the area to pick up 2 to 4 inches of rain next week, although that remains a first-order approximation at this point.

Hurricane Beryl

The hurricane is weakening in the face of moderate wind shear, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph as of 7 am CT. It will reach the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday night, likely as a weak to moderately strong tropical storm. Beryl will then have about two days over the southern Gulf of Mexico to strengthen. Seas are plenty warm, but there will be at least a bit of wind shear. Most modeling guidance brings a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane to the western Gulf coast by around Sunday night. We’ll have to see about that.

In terms of track, the most likely landfall position remains somewhere within 50 or 100 miles south of the Texas-Mexico border. However, because this landfall remains about four days into the future, uncertainty remains. It is possible the storm could track more northward, and make landfall along South Padre Island or a bit further up the Texas coast; or further south, in Mexico near Tampico. Regardless, for Houston, the primary impacts are likely to be increased rain chances. For more information on impacts to Mexico and Southern Texas, please see our latest updates at The Eyewall.

We’ll continue tracking all of this today, and if anything significant changes we’ll update the site. If not, we’ll see you on Friday morning.

In brief: The forecast for Hurricane Beryl and Houston remains more or less on track, which is to say the storm is still expected to go far enough south that it will not produce serious wind and surge impacts in Houston. We continue to watch the possibility of tropical rain next week.

Just a quick update on Wednesday afternoon to point out that our forecast from this morning on Hurricane Beryl, which currently as 140 mph sustained winds and is lashing Jamaica, is more or less on point. In fact, the data we’ve seen today from our most-trusted models continues to provide confidence in a track predicted by the National Hurricane Center. Their outlook brings a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane to the northern Mexico coast, 50 to 100 miles south of Texas, on Sunday evening or Monday morning.

We are still four to five days out in terms of a track forecast, so there are no absolutes here. But the fact that we’ve seen a convergence in modeling today, particularly in a track forecast from both the European and GFS models, gives me further confidence that Beryl, with its winds and seas, will likely not be much of a factor in Houston’s weather next week.

There is still the potential for heavy rainfall, particularly during the Monday through Wednesday timeframe. My sense is that the most likely scenario is that much of our region will pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with higher bullseyes. But I do not have as much confidence in the precipitation forecast, and certainly we cannot preclude the possibility of intense tropical rainfall and flooding in the Houston metro area. For now, however, we have no plans of issuing an alert on our flood scale. We’ll continue to monitor things, of course.

The bottom line is that Beryl is probably going south, and making a final landfall in northern Mexico. There will be some impacts for South Texas, including the possibility of inland flooding. As ever with tropical weather, forecasts can change. We’re just getting closer to the point where we can definitely say they won’t in regard to Beryl and Houston.

I’ll have a full update on Houston’s weather for you tomorrow morning, on the Fourth of July.

In brief: Houston will be hot and sunny for the next couple of days, with only some scattered shower chances. The forecast begins to change this weekend, as Hurricane Beryl moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. After that there are a lot of questions about what happens next, and this post attempts to address them as best we can.

Some thoughts on Beryl-mania

I want to start today’s post with some thoughts about Hurricane Beryl and hurricane season anxiety. In the last day or so Matt and I have been flooded with questions about this storm and its potential to impact the greater Houston area. Is the hurricane coming here? Will we flood? Are we going to see storm surge? How damaging will the winds be? There is just a ton of noise and chatter out there, and I want to say two things about it.

First, we don’t have the answers to a lot of the questions being asked. There are no absolutes in a five-, six-, or seven-day hurricane forecast. However, as I’ll discuss in the forecast below, it remains likely that significant wind and surge impacts from Beryl will go south of the Houston area. We’re most closely watching for increased rain chances next week. That doesn’t mean the forecast can’t change. But as we’ve been saying for a couple of days, in the big picture Beryl is likely to move inland into Mexico or South Texas, far from Houston. If our thinking changes on that, we’ll shout it from the rooftops.

Second, it’s going to be a long season, y’all. I get it. Beryl is a pretty ominous storm, because its intensity and rapid intensification are wholly abnormal for late June and early July. We’ve never seen this with a tropical system before, and it underscores the notion that this will be a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season. However, the Texas coast has about three more months during which we are going to have to pay close attention to the tropics. Almost certainly there will be bigger threats than Beryl to Houston this summer, and times for great anxiety. This is not one of them.

Put simply, this is a marathon and not a sprint.

So please trust us when we say this: If you need to be concerned about a tropical system—like stocking-up-at-the-grocery-store or preparing-to-evacuate levels of concern—we are going to let you know as soon as possible. We just haven’t seen that signal yet from Beryl.

Wednesday

The story for the next couple of days will be one of heat as a high pressure ridge mostly holds sway. High temperatures will be in the mid- to to upper-90s through Friday or Saturday. Today we’ll see mostly sunny skies, with light southerly winds. There will be the usual smattering of afternoon and early evening shower chances along the sea breeze, but any showers that develop should be fairly scattered.

Thursday and Friday

These should be the hottest days of the upcoming forecast period, with highs in the upper 90s except for coastal areas, which will be a few degrees cooler. Skies will be mostly sunny with only perhaps a 10 or 20 percent chance of showers this afternoon. The only concern for fireworks on Thursday, the Fourth of July, will be temperatures which should still be sultry and in the upper 80s shortly after sunset.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Rain chances will increase starting Saturday, and then persist through much of next week. From this point forward our weather will be guided by the track and evolution of Hurricane Beryl, and the potential for a trailing tropical system (Invest 96L) that may bring some additional moisture into Texas later next week. If I had to make a forecast for the weekend, I’d go with partly sunny skies and highs in the mid-90s on Saturday, with the potential for showers; and partly sunny skies on Sunday, highs in the low-90s, and perhaps a 50 percent chance of rain. I do think the better rain chances, and any potential for flooding, will hold off until at least Monday.

Hurricane Beryl

Beryl remains a very powerful hurricane this morning, with 145-mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 952 mb (which is rising, an indication of some slow weakening). It will pass near, or strike the southern edge of Jamaica today, exposing the entire Caribbean island to severe winds, heavy rains, and a large storm surge. This is a reasonable worst-case hurricane for the island, which will be subject to both coastal and inland flooding, in addition to major damage from winds.

Beryl is forecast to weaken as it crosses the Caribbean Sea later this week as it encounters some wind shear, before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Thursday night or Friday morning. It is likely to be a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane at this time, although there is some uncertainty in this. As it passes over land, Beryl should weaken further before entering the Gulf of Mexico later on Friday.

So what happens then? For Texas residents, that is it the big question. And there are a range of possibilities. Based upon my interpretation of the various hurricane models we could see everything from a tropical storm moving inland into the Mexico coast, near Tampico, on Sunday; to a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane striking Corpus Christi on Monday. In the latter scenario, since Beryl would remain over water longer, it would have more time to re-strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico.

A majority of the hurricane focused models, including HAFS and HMON, favor the “tropical storm into Mexico” scenario, as does the European model and several other solutions. I’m sure a lot of social media attention will be paid to the GFS model this morning, as it brings a hurricane to the Texas coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi early next week. But for the time being, this looks to be an outlier compared to most of our other guidance.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center, which is shown above and will be updated again at 10 am CT, shows a tropical storm/borderline Category 1 hurricane striking the Mexico coast about 50 miles south of Brownsville. I agree with their thinking.

Needless to say, for the upper Texas coast, there would be differing effects from these various scenarios. For Houston, I am not too concerned about winds—for now the worst I’d expect to see is some tropical storm force wind gusts on Sunday or Monday. Seas may get a few feet higher, like they did with Tropical Storm Alberto a couple of weeks ago. But again, for now, I’m not expecting a major storm surge event. The biggest and most widespread impact I expect to see is rainfall.

Beryl should bring some heavy rainfall to parts of Mexico and Texas starting on Sunday, and into next week. The issue is that as the storm crosses the Gulf of Mexico, the high pressure ridge to its north will start to break down, and its steering currents will weaken some. (This is the source of the uncertainty in its track over the Gulf). As a result Beryl may slow down some and have the opportunity to bring heavier rainfall over a couple of days. Please don’t misunderstand me, I am not saying this is another Hurricane Harvey.

In any case, for Houston, the best chance of rainfall will likely come during the Monday through Wednesday period. My expectation right now is that most of the area receives a manageable 2 to 5 inches of rainfall. But there is some risk of higher totals. I consider this to be a lower probability, but given the influx of tropical moisture into the state of Texas next week we cannot rule out higher bullseyes and the potential for flooding.

I apologize for the lack of concrete answers, but so it goes in tropical forecasting. A good deal of uncertainty remains. At this time my sense is that Beryl goes far enough south to have modest effects on the upper Texas coast, besides increasing rain chances next week. But there remains some risk of more direct and serious effects. We’ll be watching this possibility closely and keep you updated with another post this afternoon. And for information about broader effects across Texas and Mexico, please visit our companion site The Eyewall.