After another resplendent springtime day on Wednesday, clouds and humidity will return on Thursday. This will set the stage for widespread rainfall on Friday but we’re fortunate to have another great weekend on tap after the storms pass.

Thursday

Lows this morning have dropped into the upper 40s for areas well inland, but most of the metro region is seeing temperatures in the low to mid-50s. However, as easterly winds turn more southeasterly, we’ll see a more rapid return of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This is already leading to the development of some clouds, and by this afternoon skies should turn mostly cloudy. Highs today will reach the low 70s for most areas, with overnight lows only dropping a few degrees. Rains should hold off until late tonight.

Friday

The return of moisture and approach of a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere should bring widespread rainfall into the Houston region on Friday and Friday night. Showers should be scattered during the morning hours, but pick up in coverage and intensity later during the day, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. Some uncertainty definitely remains, but I think areas south of Interstate 10 should generally receive about 0.5 inch of rain, whereas areas north of I-10 could see 1.0 inch or more. There are some risks for severe weather, particularly strong thunderstorms with damaging winds, and hail. Please note, much of the area will probably not experience severe weather, but it is something to watch out for. Despite mostly cloudy skies, highs will reach into the upper 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend still looks quite nice, with a front on Friday night dragging drier air into the region. This will lead to clearing skies on Saturday, with at-times brisk northerly winds. Highs will climb into the low 80s, with lows dropping on Saturday night to around 60 degrees in Houston. Sunday will be sunny, again in the low 80s, with a cool but not cold night.

Next week

Houston will begin a warming trend on Monday, and likely reach the mid- to upper-80s by midweek before another front approaches the area. We still have questions about the details, but this front will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area after a period of sunny days.

The low temperature this morning at Houston’s official weather station, Bush Intercontinental Airport, has dropped to 46 degrees. This is within 4 degrees of the record low for this date, and is the coldest morning after April 20 since May 3, 2003. It won’t last!

Wednesday

With apparent temperatures in the 30s across inland parts of the region, this is definitely a morning to bundle up. Those northeast winds will continue to blow at 10 to 15 mph today, with higher gusts. Thanks to mostly sunny skies, high temperatures should rise to around 70 degrees across the area. Winds will slacken some this evening, shifting to come from the east. Lows tonight will drop to around 50 degrees north of Interstate 10, with warmer conditions closer to the coast.

Thursday

As high pressure associated with Tuesday night’s front moves east of the area, winds will bend to come from offshore, and this will drive atmospheric moisture levels upward. Gusts may reach about 20 mph. This will result in the return of some clouds Thursday, and then very healthy rain chances on Friday. Highs on Thursday will climb into the low 70s, and overnight lows will likely not fall below the upper 60s. Some very light, scattered showers will be possible Thursday night.

Friday

This will be a humid and wet day. Highs will likely reach the upper 70s, but the bigger story will be the increase of showers and thunderstorms from late morning through the evening hours. This weather will be spurred by an upper-level low pressure system that will bring a slight potential for severe weather, including hail, to much of the state.

The region could use more rainfall, so it’s hard to complain too much about a wet Friday. Although we expect accumulations of 0.5 to 2.0 inches across much of the area, we do have a few concerns about locally heavy rainfall that briefly flood low-lying streets, at worst. This may affect Friday evening’s commute home. It does look as though rain chances for Houston will end early on Saturday morning, before sunrise, as a cool front clears the area.

Saturday and Sunday

With drier air in place, the weekend looks quite nice. We should see mostly sunny skies with highs in the low 80s, and lows in the low 60s, for both Saturday and Sunday. My only slight concern is some potentially gusty winds on Saturday, perhaps above 20 mph, as the front moves in.

Next week

It looks like the region will see a warming trend before another (weak, probably?) front pushes through sometime around Wednesday. This will bring another decent chance of rain to the region, although we can’t say much more than that. Will it bring 0.1 inch or 1 inch of rain? Stay tuned.

Good morning. A strong system that brought snow the parts of Colorado on Monday will push through Texas today and reach the Houston area tonight. High temperatures in west Texas today will be in the 50s—way below normal for late April—and the front will still have a good punch when it pushes into Houston this evening. Some areas of the metro area will fall into the 40s on Wednesday morning, and this could be the last time for that until at least October.

Tuesday

Before the front arrives, however, today will be fairly warm. With light, westerly winds and sunny skies we’ll see high temperatures today shoot up into the low- to mid-80s. This will be facilitated by a fairly dry air mass which, while it will certainly feel more comfortable than humidity, will nonetheless allow the air to heat up more rapidly. The front will reach the city around sunset and the coast around midnight, with winds gusting out of the north at perhaps 20 to 25 mph.

Wednesday

Areas north of Interstate 10 will start in the 40s on Wednesday morning, and with northerly winds the “apparent” temperature for parts of Montgomery and Waller counties will be in the 30s. (The record low for Bush Intercontinental Airport for April 21, the city’s official weather station, is 42 degrees set in 1978). The bottom line, is that yes, you may want to bundle up when you head out the door on Wednesday morning. With sunny skies, temperatures should rebound to around 70 degrees, but a northerly wind of 10 to 15 mph will blow all day. Lows Wednesday night will be about 5 degrees warmer than Tuesday night.

Thursday

As high pressure exits to the west, winds will shift to come from the east and then southeast on Thursday. This will return moisture to the atmosphere fairly quickly, and begin to form clouds. Highs will probably top out in the low 70s, but overnight lows will not drop much, likely into the upper 60s for most. A few light showers will be possible south of Houston on Thursday, with slightly better chances overnight.

Friday

Showers and some thunderstorms are likely on Friday. Moisture levels in the atmosphere will support moderate to heavy rainfall for some locations, and there will be enough instability for thunderstorms to develop. It’s a little too early to have much confidence in details, but the most likely time period for this heavier rain will come from around noon on Friday into early Saturday. As for accumulations, I’d guess most areas will see 0.5 to 2 inches of rainfall, with the potential for higher totals north of Interstate 10. This forecast will definitely need fine-tuning in the days ahead. Highs will otherwise be in the upper 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

Rains should end on Saturday morning, likely before sunrise for most of us as a weak front moves into the region. This should help to clear out skies and push highs on Saturday into the mid-80s. Lows will drop to around 60 degrees on Saturday night. Sunday and Monday will probably be similar in regard to temperatures, with mostly sunny skies.

As Matt suggested in Friday’s post, Houston had a chance this week to see some fantastic spring time weather. And I’m here to tell you, it’s happening.

Normally, during the latter part of April in Houston, we start to get a taste of summertime in Houston. It’s not all that rare to experience high temperatures in the low 90s, and highs generally reach the low 80s. We feel the humidity, too, and nights are warmer, in the 60s or even 70s. Well, that’s not what we’re going to experience this week. Instead, we’ll enjoy glorious, dry weather through Thursday. This is the kind of weather you’d love to bottle up and save for August, but we know that’s not going to happen. So now is the time to enjoy it.

Monday

Northeast winds this morning will turn more easterly, and this will allow for warmer conditions today, with highs in the mid-70s. We expect clouds to thin out, and leave us with mostly sunny skies. Monday night should be a few degrees warmer than Sunday night, with lows falling into the mid-50s in Houston.

Tuesday

With sunny skies and westerly winds, high temperatures will reach the upper 70s to about 80 degrees on Tuesday. But with dewpoints comfortably in the 50s, the air will still feel quite dry. The evening will remain warm before a reinforcing cool front arrives during the overnight hours, likely reaching central Houston before midnight, and pushing off the coast before sunrise on Wednesday. The atmosphere will be fairly dry, so I don’t expect any rain with the front.

Wednesday and Thursday

Chilly! Lows on Wednesday will start out in the upper 40s for some areas, and in the upper 50s near the coast. Under sunny skies, expect highs to reach the low 70s, with another cool night. Thursday will see a few clouds mix in, with temperatures again in the low 70s for most areas.

Friday

By Friday, the onshore flow will be back, and the next front should be approaching Houston. Skies will be mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-70s. Most areas should see rain during the daytime and evening hours, and I’m hopeful that we’ll see accumulations of around 1 inch for much of Houston. We’ll see. Anyway, rain chances will begin to end Friday night and should wrap up by mid-morning on Saturday.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast looks fine. The only caveat is the timing of the front, if it comes in later it could upset our forecast for Saturday. But for now, we expect partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low 80s on Saturday, and mostly sunny skies on Sunday with a high of around 80 degrees. Lows should be around 60 degrees in Houston, cooler inland and warmer at the coast.