In brief: Houston faces the threat of heavy rainfall, and possibly severe storms, on Thursday afternoon and evening. Beginning shortly after noon we’ll see stronger storms building north of Interstate 10. Eventually a (probably weaker) system will migrate toward the coast late this evening. Some additional rain is possible Friday before a prolonged period of hotter and sunnier weather.

The big picture

It may feel like déjà vu to be staring down yet another threat for storms and heavy rainfall, as it has been a truly wet spring for the Houston region. During the last 30 days, the majority of our area north of Interstate 10 has received at least 10 inches of rain, and locations further north, particularly in the Huntsville and Lake Livingston areas, have received in excess of 20 inches. This has led to significant river flooding, and we’re likely to see more of that in the coming days after storms this evening and overnight.

If you’re tired of it all, I don’t blame you. But I would also note, with some caution, that we’re about to experience a significant pattern change. High pressure will settle in, and after Friday the remainder of May looks very dry. Maybe not completely dry, but quite possibly so. This could set us up for another scorching June, not dissimilar to last year. So while significant flood relief is coming, we may begin to miss some rain in a few weeks. We’ll see.

Thursday

I’m not concerned about conditions on Thursday morning, which should bring cloudy skies and temperatures in the low-80s. However, beginning later this afternoon, perhaps around 1 to 3 pm, we’re likely to see the development of showers and thunderstorms to the north of Houston, in areas such as College Station and Huntsville. Conditions are ripe for heavy rainfall, as an upper-level system brings lift into an atmosphere filled with moisture.

Some of these storms may well be severe. There is enough instability to support the threat of damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes. (Hail, at this point, looks like a lesser threat). However, my biggest concern lies with the potential for heavy rainfall. Most areas north of Interstate 10 are likely to see 1 to 4 inches, but with these kinds of storms bullseyes of 6 or more inches are possible this afternoon and evening. By or before midnight, the worst should be over for inland areas. Long-term, we’ll need to monitor ongoing flooding of the Trinity, San Jacinto, and Brazos river basins.

After battering inland areas, the system is likely to migrate southward later this evening, and push closer to the coast near midnight. Heavy rain remains possible south of Interstate 10, but the overall threat is less.

Friday

An additional, final round of showers and thunderstorms is possible on Friday morning. This activity should be clustered closer to the coast, where the boundary will get hung up. Expect highs in the mid-80s, with possibly some partially clearing skies by Friday afternoon or evening. Lows on Friday night will drop to around 70 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks sunny. I’d expect highs to slot somewhere into the low-90s on both days, with nights in the low 70s. Southerly winds look light, so plan your outdoor activities with confidence (and sunscreen).

Next week

More sunshine is on the way. Generally we should see mostly sunny afternoons next week, with highs likely pushing into the low 90s for areas of Houston closer to the coast. Inland areas may get a few degrees warmer. It won’t be full-on summer, but it will be rather warm. Rain chances are not zero, but they’re close for most if not all of next week.

In brief: Expect more sunshine today, but then a stalled boundary will bring a healthy chance of rain showers into the region on Thursday and possibly Friday morning. If you’re tired of the rain, the good news is that we’ll then dry out for awhile. But now that we’re approaching late May, sunny weather means highs in the 90s, of which there will be plenty next week.

Before getting to the forecast, Matt and I want to say a quick note of congratulations to chief meteorologist Frank Billingsley, who is retiring next month after 30 years at KPRC-TV. He has worked at Channel 2 for as long as I have lived and worked in the Houston area (1997), and we have covered many of the same extreme weather events, including Hurricanes Harvey, Rita, and Ike, Tropical Storm Allison, and the great freeze in 2021. Frank has always been friendly and helpful, and we wish him nothing but the best.

Wednesday

If you liked Tuesday, you’re in luck, because today will bring more sunshine and (somewhat) drier air. Highs will again flirt with 90 degrees. However, with winds swinging around to come from the southeast, we’ll see an influx of more moist air this evening, with lows only dropping into the lower 70s.

Thursday

Did you miss the rain? Because it returns on Thursday and possibly Friday for a final engagement before exiting the area for awhile. I think we’ll see isolated to scattered showers on Thursday morning before more organized showers and thunderstorms arrive during the afternoon hours and persist into the evening or overnight hours. Once again, the most favored region for the heaviest rains will be north of Interstate 10, and likely in Montgomery County and points north. These inland areas should see 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with higher bullseyes of 5 inches possible for some locations. Closer to the coast, south of Interstate 10, accumulations should be less. I’m most concerned about rivers, as flooding continues along the Trinity, East Fork of the San Jacinto, and lower Brazos basins.

Highs, otherwise, should be in the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. A fairly strong southeasterly breeze will be in place, with gusts up to 25 mph.

Friday

Another round of showers is possible on Friday morning before some probable clearing during the afternoon hours, with partly sunny skies. Highs will likely reach the mid- to upper-80s, depending on how much sun breaks through during the afternoon. Lows on Friday night will drop to around 70 degrees in Houston, give or take.

Saturday and Sunday

As high pressure takes hold, we have good confidence in an extended period of mostly sunny and warmer weather. Highs on Saturday are likely to reach about 90 degrees, with temperatures pushing into the lower 90s by Sunday. It will feel reasonably humid, with only a modest southerly wind.

Next week

Expect mostly sunny days for most of next week, with highs generally in the low-90s—although some inland locations could push into the mid-90s. Rain chances look low to non-existent at least through the middle of next week. For all intents and purposes, summer starts next week. Hope you’re ready!

In brief: In this sponsored post with longtime partner Reliant, Eric writes about his experiences with owning a whole-home generator, including during recent storms. If you’re thinking about getting one, now is a good time. If you start the process today, there is still time for a generator to be installed prior to the busy part of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Additionally, there is a special Reliant offer for our readers—read to the end for more details on that.

Hurricane season is right around the corner, but we are still about four months away from the time when Houston typically is most at risk for damaging tropical weather. So if you’ve been thinking about a whole-home generator, now is the time to order to have it running by peak season. You may recall that I had one installed by Quality Home Products, who partners with Reliant, about three years ago. I want to provide an update on how it has performed since then.

Surviving the storm

Truth be told, it has mostly just existed in the background. It’s kicked on a few times, during brief power outages, but until recently nothing serious.

Also, thanks to my preventative maintenance plan, it gets checked out a couple of times a year. However, in late March, I experienced my first problem. The generator didn’t run for its weekly test and the red service light came on.

One of the things I like about Quality Home Products is that when you call the service number, a real person answers right away. She was helpful, and sent out a technician a couple of days later. He fixed the problem, which involved a battery and a motor. And it’s a good thing, too. Because a couple of days later, early on the morning of April 10, we had some strong storms move through. You may remember them. The winds were especially nasty in our neighborhood. Briefly, they were pretty scary. We lost two mature trees, twisted and snapped in half. My daughter’s trampoline was picked up, turned on its side, and the metal poles were broken. These were violent storms.

The power went off in the heart of the storm, but seconds later the generator kicked on just as it’s supposed to do. It ran without difficulty for the next 16 hours until power was restored. (Several nearby power poles were snapped in half and had to be replaced). It was, shall we say, a comfort. And it all happened without me having to do a thing.

Not a small project

I want to be clear. Buying a generator capable of powering your entire home is a major investment. I feel very fortunate to have one. For the average homeowner in Houston, it will likely cost between $10,000 and $15,000. The entire process from an initial consultation to installation will take at least six to eight weeks.

Buyers have lots of options, but having lived the experience with Reliant and Quality Home Products, I can say the service is excellent and reliable. The peace of mind it brings is comforting during severe weather.

Reliant customer reader offer: For now through the end of June, Reliant customers can get $1,000 off a generator from Quality Home Products and one year of free preventative maintenance. For more information, please visit this website.

In brief: After widespread showers and thunderstorms on Monday, clearer skies and calmer weather will prevail on Tuesday and Wednesday. However we’ll return to a wetter pattern on Thursday that will bring another chance of heavy rain, especially to areas north of Houston. The weekend looks sunny and hot, with summer on the near horizon.

Tuesday

After a weak front pushed into Houston on Monday night, we’re seeing slightly drier air and pleasantly cooler temperatures this morning. Lows have fallen into the mid-60s for much of the region. With clear skies and somewhat lower humidity, highs today will push into the upper 80s to 90 degrees across the region, with the warmer temperatures coming further inland. Winds will be light, from the northwest. Lows should again drop into the 60s tonight for all but coastal areas.

Wednesday

This will be another sunny day with highs near 90 degrees. Winds will shift to come from the southeast later in the day, a harbinger of more moisture to come. Still, humidity levels will be low-ish during the daytime before a more humid evening. Expect lows in the low 70s.

Thursday

As atmospheric moisture levels increase, we’ll see a series a disturbances pass overhead on Thursday and Thursday night. There is not a particularly strong signal for severe weather such as wind or hail. However, there is the possibility of heavy rainfall. I’m not fully convinced this forecast will verify, but much of the Houston area could see an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. My concern is for areas north of Houston, which have already been battered by heavy rainfall this month. Areas such as Huntsville and Lake Livingston could see bullseyes of 4 or more inches of rainfall. Widespread clouds and rains should limit highs in the 80s.

Friday

Rain chances will persist into Friday morning, but things should taper off at some point during the late morning or early afternoon. Expect partly sunny skies later in the day, with highs in the upper 80s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks mostly sunny and warm, with temperatures in the range of 90 to 93 degrees for most locations. Nights will drop into the low 70s. Plan your outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

Most of next week looks partly to mostly sunny and warm, with highs in the low 90s. Rain chances look fairly low. As we get into the back half of May we’re staring squarely into the face of summer, my friends.