Summary: Houston will enjoy a fine spring fling this week, with dry days and cool nights. By later on Saturday the sunshine will largely go away, likely bringing us mostly cloudy skies for the eclipse on Monday. Rain showers are likely for the first half of next week.

Wednesday

Today will be a fine, sunny day. With northerly winds at 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts, the air is going to be plenty dry. (In fact, we’re unlikely to see dewpoints drop this far down, to about 40 degrees, many more times this spring). Highs will reach the mid- to upper-70s this afternoon before temperatures fall this evening. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-50s.

Thursday

This will be another sunny day with dry air. Winds will be lighter, and come from the west. Highs will be a bit warmer, reaching about 80 degrees. And overnight lows will only drop to around 60 degrees.

It’s perhaps worth noting that we’re now in early April. Spring still has some string to run out, but these weekly fronts we’ve been seeing are likely about to become less frequent. Savor the dry air while it’s here. Because one day fairly soon, it will be gone.

Friday

Expect more sunshine on Friday. But as winds swing to come from the south we’ll see warmer air. I expect highs to push into the mid-80s on Friday, with overnight lows dropping into the low 60s.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will see partly sunny skies, with highs of around 80 degrees. These conditions will be somewhat marred by an approaching front, which will help generate strong southerly winds from the Gulf. Gusts on Saturday afternoon could reach about 30 mph. Lows on Saturday night will only drop to around 70 degrees.

Sunday

Sunday will be cloudy, with highs of around 80 degrees. Some light, scattered showers will be possible, as the aforementioned front stalls out near Houston, but I suspect most of the area will see sprinkles at most. The air will feel fairly humid. Lows on Sunday night will drop to around 70 degrees.

Monday

We’ve been tracking the eclipse weather for awhile now, and the forecast continues to look poor. We’re likely to see cloudy skies in the Houston area on Monday, with scattered light to moderate rain showers. In Houston the Moon will begin covering the Sun shortly after noon, peaking in coverage at 1:40 pm CT. So it will get fairly dark in the early afternoon hours. Highs will reach about 80 degrees.

Of course the path of totality for the eclipse runs through Texas, along much of the Interstate 35 corridor. The forecast there looks a little bit better, but only a little. Most of our major global model guidance continues to show cloudy skies for much of Texas, with perhaps the northern part of the state having the best chance for some partly cloudy skies. We’ll take a deeper look into this tomorrow morning.

Next week

Tuesday and Wednesday should see additional healthy rain chances before some kind of front finally pushes through. It looks fairly weak, but could drop overnight lows back down to around 60 degrees.

Summary: A front will move through Houston this morning, leading to some beautiful weather through Friday. The weekend turns warmer and more humid, with some showers possible on Sunday, and likely on Monday and Tuesday. That may well spoil the eclipse viewing in Houston.

Tuesday

We’re seeing a broken line of showers, with a few isolated thunderstorms, across the region this morning as a cold front moves through the area from west to east. These showers should move east of Houston by 8 or 9 am, with drier air moving in behind. As a result we’ll see clearing skies by late this morning or early afternoon at the latest. This sunshine should allow highs to reach the lower 80s this afternoon before the region cools off nicely, with lows dropping into the low 50s tonight. It will be breezy this evening as winds gust up to about 30 mph from the north-northwest.

Wednesday

This will be a fine spring day, with highs likely in the mid-70s and lots of sunshine. It will be a bit windy, with gusts of perhaps 20 mph, as more dry air moves in. Conditions settle down overnight, with clear skies and lows in the 50s.

Thursday

This will be another exceptional day, with highs around 80 degrees and lots of sunshine. Winds will be light. Lows on Thursday night will drop again into the 50s.

Friday

While the onshore flow will start to reestablish itself, this should be a mostly sunny day with highs around 80 degrees and fairly dry air. Overnight lows will, however, be a bit warmer, only dropping to around 60 degrees overnight.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see a transition to warmer, and more humid weather. We’ll see some clouds on Saturday, and increasing southerly winds. It could be gusty at times. Highs will be around 80 degrees. As atmospheric moisture levels increase, Sunday will be a mostly cloudy day with a chance of light showers. Highs will again be around 80 degrees. Lows on Sunday night will only drop to around 70 degrees.

Eclipse Monday

A dying front will stall over the region this weekend, and it will lead to increased rain chances to start next week, on Monday and Tuesday. In terms of accumulations, most of the area is likely to see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, but of course details are difficult to parse this far out.

What that means for our skies on Monday is that clouds are likely at the time of the eclipse, which will peak at 1:40 pm CT over Houston with 94 percent of the Sun covered by the Moon. I can’t say for certainty that it will be cloudy during the early afternoon hours on Monday, but we’re continuing to trend that way.

What about the line of totality, where the Sun is completely obscured by the Moon? This runs from South Texas to Northeast Texas. At this time much of the state is still likely to see partly to mostly cloudy skies along the path of totality, but there is some chance that areas of north Texas might see clearing skies as the aforementioned front pushes down to the coast. We’ll see. The outlook is still fairly grim, but perhaps not so grim as yesterday.

Summary: In today’s post we dive into the eclipse forecast for next Monday, which for Texas is frankly not very good. As for our weather in Houston, we’ll see a warm day ahead of a front on Tuesday. That should bring us lovely, spring-like weather for the rest of this week.

Total solar eclipse

Although we are still a week away from the total solar eclipse on April 8, which will take place at approximately 1:30 to 1:40 pm CT for much of the line of totality across Texas, the forecast is pretty grim. Locally, in Houston, about 94 percent of the Sun will be covered on Monday at the peak of the eclipse. My preliminary forecast for next Monday is scattered to widespread rain showers with mostly cloudy skies. For areas along the line of totality in Texas, the outlook is not much better. The operational runs of both the GFS and European models have, consistently, shown nearly 100 percent cloud cover across much of the state during the early afternoon hours on Monday. There is a fair amount of support for this in the ensembles as an upper-level system crosses the southern plains. Many of these areas could see rain on Monday.

The map below shows the ensemble forecast for percent of the sky covered in clouds on Monday at 1 pm CT. For nearly all of the totality path in Texas, the value is about 75 percent. However, given the consistency in the operational models, I would lean toward a value higher than that at this time.

About this I would say a couple of things. First of all, we’re still a week out. Forecasts can and do change. But this is not a good place to be seven days from the total eclipse. If you really want to see the eclipse with clear skies, the northeastern United States looks like your best bet. Secondly, if you’re staying in Texas, the eclipse will still be quite a treat even with poor weather. Along the line of totality the sky will still get completely dark in the middle of the day, which will be an eerie experience indeed.

We’ll continue to track the eclipse forecast in the days ahead.

Monday

Today will be warm, but not quite as warm as we’ve been anticipating. Mostly cloudy skies should help to limit highs to the mid-80s for much of Houston. It will be a breezy day, with southerly winds at about 15 mph, and gusts up to 25 or even 30 mph. Low temperatures tonight will only drop to about 70 degrees. There will be about a 20 percent chance of showers tonight, and an even lesser likelihood of isolated thunderstorms ahead of an approaching front.

Tuesday

The front should push into Houston during the morning hours on Tuesday, reaching the coast by around noon. We’ll see an additional, low chance of rain with the front’s passage, but then we’ll see quickly clearing skies and drier air moving in with northwesterly winds. These clearer skies will allow highs to briefly reach the lower 80s, but lows will drop into the 50s on Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of gorgeous spring-like days. We’re talking highs in the low- to mid-70s, plenty of dry air, and lots of sunshine. Lows on both nights should drop into the low 50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. Seriously, these look like A+ days.

Friday

This will be another nice day, with highs of about 80 degrees. A few scattered clouds will be possible with the return of the onshore flow, and lows on Friday night will drop to around 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

Both of these days should see highs of around 80 degrees, with partly sunny skies. Sunday will see a decent amount of humidity, and we cannot entirely rule out some light rain showers later in the day. But for the most part, the weekend looks excellent for outdoor activities.

Next week

As mentioned above, rain chances start to increase on Monday, and through the early part of next week, in response to an upper-level system. It’s still too early to have too much confidence, but we’re talking days in the low 80s before a weak front (probably) arrives in the middle of the week.

Summary: A very quiet Easter weekend is expected, with the most annoying weather element likely to be the breeze each day. Our next front arrives early Tuesday after a very warm Monday. It will bring a few showers but nothing too bad, followed up by quiet, pleasant weather later next week.

Is hurricane season really going to be that bad?

Over at The Eyewall, I’ve posted roughly once a month about hurricane season since January. I’m just basically tracking the status of El Niño and Atlantic water temperatures. We’re in the middle of a rather unprecedented global marine heat wave right now. The global oceans hit a record high temperature last month, and we’ve essentially set new daily records for the last full year, every day. It’s not just El Niño. That’s not hurting things, but it does not explain everything. We’ll cover this more at The Eyewall over time, but suffice to say, the Atlantic is one of many bodies of water that is blistering warm for March.

In fact, Atlantic Ocean water temps are already at levels you would typically see in early June. In our posts at The Eyewall, I’ve basically said that you can expect seasonal hurricane forecasts to come surging out of the gate this year. They are going to be calling for active, if not hyperactive levels of activity. They’re going to be ugly. No two ways about it.

The first major entrant in this derby, AccuWeather came out on Wednesday, stating that they expect 20 to 25 named storms and 8 to 12 hurricanes. Because that’s not enough, they framed the season as likely being “explosive.” AccuWeather also highlighted the western Gulf, Florida, and Carolinas for above average activity. In my post yesterday at The Eyewall, I did note that they got their landfall points correct in 2023, but they also missed a couple areas. In 2022 they said the Gulf Coast between Texas and the Florida Panhandle was at greatest risk, as were the Carolinas. There were virtually no major impacts in those areas that season, with Hurricane Ian instead ramming the southwest coast of Florida. This is a long way of me saying that seasonal landfall forecasts have extremely mixed results, so take them all with a grain of salt.

The next major entrant should be Colorado State University, which unveils their outlook late next week at the National Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre.

Obviously, all this elicits a lot of concern from people. We’ve heard from people asking about how worried they should be this year. Others are already using gallows humor to cope already. I think it’s important to say a couple things here. First, as an individual or family, you shouldn’t use a seasonal hurricane forecast as the basis for your preparation. You should prepare the same way each year for hurricane season: Evacuation plans, contingency plans regarding work, pets, and childcare, emergency kits, flood insurance, H-E-B cocoa granola in my case. For you, me, and the lamp post, honestly, seasonal hurricane forecasts are noise, scientific exercises that really don’t tell us anything seriously actionable. Sure, many of us like to know what they say, but in terms of what they actually mean, it’s very little. For governments and businesses, it’s another matter. Second, an active season does not always mean an active season — for Texas. Last year was active. Texas had Tropical Storm Harold, which was probably more beneficial than destructive for the southern part of the state. But aside from that, it was quiet. 1983 was a virtually silent hurricane season overall, except for Hurricane Alicia here in Houston which would easily be a 10 to 20 billion dollar storm today. So, active or quiet, we should prep each year.

Basically, do what you want with seasonal hurricane forecasts. But look, the reality is we live in a hurricane prone location. We accept that fact by living here. So, do what you can to prepare early in case this is the year. And if it’s not, well good for us. But please try not to lose sleep over these forecasts. There’s going to be a lot of noise over the next 2 months in the run up to the season. You’re best served using the time to prepare in case it does end up being our year.

On to the weather.

Today through Easter Sunday

The good news is that travel looks great all weekend. There should be no serious issues. There will likely be some patchy fog on a couple mornings. Aside from that and a breeze each day, especially on Sunday, it looks good. I do think some folks may find the breeze to be a bit much at times. Onshore flow really kicks in this weekend, sending our high temperatures into upper-70s today and 80s tomorrow and Easter Sunday. Morning lows will be in the low-60s tomorrow and mid-60s Sunday.

Rain chances should be close to zero all weekend.

Early next week

Our next cold front is targeting Tuesday. No joke, we’ll probably see one of our warmest days of the year so far on Monday, with highs well into the mid-80s. The number to beat is 89° that we reached on March 5th.

That will precede a frontal passage on Tuesday morning-ish. This front looks no worse right now than the one we had on Monday that brought some downpours and thunder for a short time. Rain totals look modest. That will usher in cooler, drier, nice weather for later next week. Expect lows to probably bottom out in the 50s for a couple pleasant mornings Wednesday and Thursday.

We’ll have the very latest on the forecast for April 8th’s eclipse on Monday. Not a whole lot has changed today, so let’s see what the weekend does, and then we can really dig in on this hard next week.