We’ve talked about the late start to autumn this year in Houston, and we’re going to come very close to the latest start of fall on record. As a quick reminder, we’re defining “fall” as the first temperature of 65 degrees, or below, on or after Sept. 1. If we look at the data for the city, which goes all the way back to 1889, we can see how late we are this year in reaching this temperature, which denotes the arrival of the first decently strong “fall” front.

Today is October 9. Note that since the official weather monitoring station was moved to Bush Intercontinental Airport in 1969, the average date of “fall” was September 16th, and this trend line has been flat. The latest beginning of “fall” for this site came in 2005, on Oct. 7. We passed that a couple of days ago. The latest ever start to fall dates all the way back to 1904, when the downtown weather station didn’t measure a 65-degree night, or cooler, until Oct. 13. We’ll come close to that this year. But will be break it? Probably not.

Tuesday

We’re going to have one more sloppy humid day before some drier air arrives. Mostly cloudy skies should keep temperatures in the upper 80s, with some scattered showers and thunderstorms like the region saw Monday. While some of these storms could produce briefly heavy rain, we don’t expect them to persist for too long.

We’ve also seen might higher water levels along the coast during the last day or so; this is due to stronger lunar tides, persistent southerly winds, and waves from the distant Hurricane Michael. The effects of this should ease by Wednesday morning, with the passage of a cool front and wind shift. A coastal flood advisory remains in effect until that time.

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It has been a torrid start to October, with six consecutive 90-degree days in Houston. We’ll remain in this steamy, hot, and humid pattern for only a few more days before fall’s first moderately cooler and significantly drier weather finally arrives later on Wednesday, in the wake of a front. Houston’s temperature last fell below 65 degrees on May 15th, nearly five months ago. This has been a long summer, y’all. But now it’s almost time for fall.

Monday

With lows in the mid- to upper-70s it’s incredibly warm across the region for October, and with partly sunny skies we should see high temperatures near or at 90 degrees today. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, but we shouldn’t see anything too widespread due to the lack of forcing.

Tuesday

Moisture levels will be higher than Monday, and as a result we expect that probably about half the region will see rain on Tuesday. Accumulations should be less than 0.5 to 0.75 inch for the most part in what will otherwise be a hot and steamy day, with high temperatures in the vicinity of 90 degrees. Increasing clouds could keep most western areas in the mid- to upper-80s.

Wednesday

The first real front of fall won’t be that strong, but it will bring some drier air and overall relief to the area. This day will still be warmer, with drying air allowing temperatures to push into the upper 80s. But lows Wednesday evening should fall into the 60s for most of the region, except for immediately along the coast, and the drier air will feel immeasurably better as the sun goes down.

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The near-term forecast for Houston is not great, with on-and-off rain chances likely throughout the weekend and persisting into early next week, along with muggy weather. But none of these rains should be too extreme. And by the middle of next week the forecast begins to look markedly better for us after a long, long summer.

Friday

The radar remains largely quiet this morning, with a few rain showers sprinkled offshore. Conditions should be similar to Thursday, with partly sunny skies and scattered showers. As the forecast map below suggests, where rain does fall today it should be fairly moderate in nature, measuring only a few tenths of an inch.

Unfortunately, it will be another warm and humid day, with high temperatures pressing up near 90 degrees, and likely hitting that mark under full sunshine.

Saturday

Another day with partly sunny skies, scattered showers, and warm temperatures. However, if you have outdoor activities planned on Saturday I’d be fairly optimistic at this point as forecast models indicate we’ll see some slightly drier air aloft. I’d have a plan for spotty showers that may pop-up, but as of now it does not appear likely that we’ll see too many prolonged showers over the Houston area.

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