Summary: Houston will see mild, mostly rain-free conditions for the foreseeable future. We’ll warm up the next couple of days before a moderate front cools us down for the weekend. Speaking of which, outdoor activities look good to go on Saturday and Sunday, so make your plans with confidence.

Tuesday

If you found Monday’s sunny skies and cool air a bit too cool for your liking, you may appreciate today more. With a moderate southerly flow in place, temperatures today will rise into the mid-70s beneath mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, from the south and southwest at 5 to 10 mph. With dew points generally in the 50s, the air will still feel somewhat dry. Lows tonight should only drop to around 60 degrees for much of the area, and this could aid in the development of some fog during the overnight hours.

Wednesday

This will be another day with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. The most notable change from Tuesday will be an increase in southerly winds, with daytime gusts of 20 to 25 mph. We’ll see more clouds overnight, and lows will be warm-ish for this time of year, only dropping into the low 60s.

Thursday

This should be the warmest day of the week, with partly to mostly cloudy skies in the morning and some clearing in the afternoon. Expect highs of nearly 80 degrees with a southerly breeze. Change will come in the form of a front dropping out of the northwest. As of now it appears likely the front will reach areas such as Katy and The Woodlands by around sunset, push through most of Houston by around 8 to 10 pm, and move off the coast by around midnight. Some light rain is possible with the front, but at this point I believe it is unlikely. Lows drop into the 50s overnight, behind the front.

Friday

Friday morning looks a bit breezy, with northerly winds gusting up to 15 or 20 mph. But these winds should slacken during the afternoon hours as Houston enjoys sunny skies and highs in the mid-70s with drier air. Lows on Friday night will likely drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend continues to look splendid for outdoor activities—so if you picked this weekend for a wedding or family reunion give yourself a gold star. Saturday will be sunny, in the mid-70s, with light winds and low humidity. Overnight lows drop into the low-50s. Sunday will be a bit warmer, with a bit more humidity. It will also be somewhat breezy, as a southerly flow returns, with some gusts around 20 mph. Under this Southerly influence lows on Sunday night will be warmer, perhaps dropping only to about 60 degrees.

Next week

Spring continues. Houston should warm into the upper 70s to possibly 80 degrees through Tuesday or Wednesday of next week before some sort of front arrives. This may bring a few cooler days and some better rain chances, especially toward the end of the week. Do I have much confidence in the details? I do not.

Summary: It’s a chilly morning across Houston, with temperatures generally in the 30s, and you’ll want a jacket. But after this morning we start to warm up nicely. A weak front on Thursday should set the stage for some stellar weather this weekend. In this post I also discuss whether this past weekend marked the last outbreak of really cold weather this season.

End of winter?

For Houston, I would characterize a “really cold night” as a temperature below 40 degrees. Your view may well differ, but that is a nighttime temperature about 5 degrees colder than our normal lows during the middle of winter. In any case, it’s a night when most people want their heat running, and they step outside in the morning and things feel pretty cold. Or, as my wife says when she lets the dogs out, “It’s freezing!”

Most of the Houston region saw a pair of nights this weekend that dropped below 40 degrees, and it was a genuinely cold winter weekend. As we get near the end of February, such cold snaps become rarer. The question this morning is whether we will see sub-40 degree temperatures again this season. I would say the answer is not definitive, but I think there’s a solid chance we don’t. There is signal in the global models for some cooler air air around the beginning of March, but I’m not sure it will get below 40 degrees in Houston. The bottom line, I think, is that after this past weekend Spring has sprung.

Also, I wanted to mention that we’ve published a second sponsorship video with Reliant. Check it out to see some of the fun things we’ve done over the last seven years.

Monday

Today should be a very fine day, with sunny skies, dry air, and high temperatures in the mid-60s. Seriously, this will be one of those A+, Goldilocks days that Houston experiences between cold fronts and warmer and more humid weather. Winds will shift to come from the south at 5 to 10 mph later today. With this beginning of an onshore flow, conditions will be warmer tonight, with temperatures generally falling into the upper 40s for most of the metro area.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These will be a pair of mostly sunny days with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-70s. We’ll continue to see a nighttime warming trend, with lows in the upper 50s on Wednesday morning, and low 60s by Wednesday morning. Winds will continue to blow from the south, becoming more noticeable by Wednesday, with some gusts up to 20 or 25 mph.

Thursday

Expect a warmer day, with highs likely reaching 80 degrees or a bit higher. Skies are likely to be partly cloudy. A front will push through the area during the daytime, but as of now overall rain chances with its passage look quite low. I’d bet on a dry front. It will not going to be particularly potent, but the front will bring us some drier and cooler air for the weekend. Lows on Friday morning will likely drop into the upper 50s.

Friday

This looks like a fine, sunny day with highs in the mid-70s and drier air. Skies are likely to be mostly sunny. Lows on Friday night should drop to around 50 in Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

This is going to be a great weekend for any outdoor activities you may have. Look for sunny skies, and highs in the mid-70s on Saturday, and upper-70s on Sunday. Lows will be in the lower 50s on Saturday and Sunday mornings. By the second half of the weekend we’ll see the return of a moderate onshore flow, which will start to nudge up humidity levels.

Next week

Temperatures will bounce upward, into the low-80s for the first half of next week. It should be our warmest weather of 2024. However, it looks like we may see a decent front near the end of the month. There are also some hints that later next week could also bring our first real chances of rain back into the forecast, but the forecast starts to get pretty hazy at that point.

Summary: A mostly gentle rain is expected for most of the Houston area today, with the steadiest falling near the coast or down toward Matagorda Bay. A cold front will usher in a blustery overnight and Saturday with temperatures dropping into the 40s, before a spectacular Sunday and Monday. We’ll likely be talking 80s by midweek next week.

Before we get into things today, I want to give a shoutout to the second graders at Creekview Elementary up in Tomball. I got to visit them yesterday and answer all their weather questions, most of which happened to be about tornadoes! Some bright kiddos, and a thank you to Kristin Pesz, Tiffany Major, and the rest of the second grade teachers for having me out and for a couple special gifts!

Alright, let’s jump into the forecast.

Today

We’ll end the week on a wet note. This looks like the rare Houston steady rain that doesn’t dump all at once. This should be a rather gentle light to perhaps moderate rain most of the time in our area. Most of the area should see at least some rain, but the odds drop off, ahem, precipitously north of Highway 105.

Areas south of Houston will see the most rain, which is to say a half-inch to inch perhaps, with the highest amounts down near Matagorda Bay. For Houston, totals will probably range from a few hundredths of an inch up near Conroe to a quarter to half inch south of I-10. Temperatures won’t move much today, with 60s this morning, increasing just a few degrees this afternoon.

Late tonight & Saturday

It will not be until about midnight or so, give or take an hour or two that we notice a big time change. A cold front will hit, which should taper any rain off to drizzle mostly. But behind it, fairly potent north winds will usher in cold air. Look for gusts of 20 to 30mph, stronger on the coast or near the Bay. And temperatures will probably hold steady in the mid to upper 40s at best. It will remain mostly cloudy with a few showers or some light rain around through the day, particularly south or east of Houston.

Sunday

Winds calm down Saturday night, and Sunday will dawn calm and chilly. Look for lows in the 30s over a good chunk of the region. But Sunday’s daytime looks absolutely stellar, with temperatures rebounding well into the 50s to perhaps near 60 in spots. Oh, and it’ll be sunny. Definitely one to enjoy!

Presidents’ Day

Monday looks fantastic, with sunshine, morning lows in the 40s, and daytime highs near 70 degrees. Another stellar day.

Rest of next week

The warm up does not stop there. We will continue to add a little humidity and warmer temperatures Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. I expect highs to hit the upper 70s Tuesday, and 80 or better Wednesday and Thursday. Current model guidance from the National Blend of Models (NBM) suggests at least a 50 to 60 percent chance of 80 or better on both Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will bump up into the 50s to near 60 degrees perhaps by Thursday.

No real meaningful shower chances are expected right now, but this warm pattern may allow for some sea fog in Galveston or along the bayshore. A cold front should nudge through the area Friday, allowing for cooler, dry weather next weekend but nothing too excessive. We’re probably looking at 40s and 50s for lows and 60s or 70s for highs. More on that next week.

Summary: We’ll see mild weather today before a coastal low brings a modest amount of rain on Friday and Friday night. This weekend looks chilly, with Saturday feeling especially brisk as a front blows in. Most of next week looks warm and fairly sunny, and as discussed below this probably heralds the beginning of spring-like weather for our region.

Last of the freezes?

Before jumping in to the forecast, I want to spare a word for the gardeners. Although I don’t anticipate a freeze in Houston on Sunday morning, a few outlying areas in Montgomery County and the other usual suspects may experience a light freeze this weekend. And after that? After that the odds of another freeze this winter are fairly low.

For areas south of Interstate 10, we are already past the “average” date of the region’s last freeze, and we’re fast approaching that date for areas along and north of Interstate 10. For areas further inland, such as Conroe, the typical date of the last freeze comes in late February. Wild things can happen, of course. Houston’s latest ever recorded freeze came on April 10, 1973. But after this weekend the rest of February looks to be fairly warm, and that gets us into March. So I’m reasonably confident we’re done with freezes this year. However, if you want an iron-clad guarantee I cannot give that.

Thursday

We’re starting today with temperatures of about 60 degrees, and we’re going to experience the warmest day of the week as highs nudge into the low- to mid-70s. Skies will be mostly cloudy, and winds light from the southeast, at 5 mph or so. Some very light and misty showers will be possible this evening, but in all likelihood they will hold off until the overnight hours. Lows tonight will only drop into the low 60s.

Friday

As discussed for a few days now, a coastal low pressure system will bring increasing rain chances into the region early on Friday. It still looks as if the bulk of the heavier precipitation will remain offshore, so much of the Houston area is only going to see on-and-off, light-to-moderate rain showers. For areas south of Interstate 10 accumulations are likely to be a few tenths of an inch up to a full inch near the coast. Areas further inland will see less, and some places like The Woodlands may not see much, if any rainfall. When it’s not raining skies will be mostly cloudy, with highs in the 60s. A cold front will move into the Houston region after midnight, likely reaching the coast around sunset, plus or minus an hour or so. This should mostly bring an end to any lingering rain showers.

Saturday

This is going to be a cold and breezy day—one of the region’s last truly winter-like days if that’s your thing. After the front’s passage we’re going to see temperatures in the 50s, and possibly upper 40s, during the daytime. When you add on winds gusting up to 30 mph, it’s going to feel rather chilly outside. Skies may start to clear some during the afternoon or evening hours. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the upper 30s with slackening winds in Houston.

Sunday

This will be a fine, sunny day with high temperatures in the upper 50s. Lows will drop to around 40 degrees on Sunday night.

Next week

Most of next week looks warmer, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs on Monday will reach about 70 degrees, but after that we’re going to be in the upper 70s to perhaps 80 degrees for most of the week. Nights will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A weak front may arrive by next Friday or so to cool us down (slightly) for next weekend. Rain chances appear low for most of the week.