Summary: In today’s post we dive into the eclipse forecast for next Monday, which for Texas is frankly not very good. As for our weather in Houston, we’ll see a warm day ahead of a front on Tuesday. That should bring us lovely, spring-like weather for the rest of this week.

Total solar eclipse

Although we are still a week away from the total solar eclipse on April 8, which will take place at approximately 1:30 to 1:40 pm CT for much of the line of totality across Texas, the forecast is pretty grim. Locally, in Houston, about 94 percent of the Sun will be covered on Monday at the peak of the eclipse. My preliminary forecast for next Monday is scattered to widespread rain showers with mostly cloudy skies. For areas along the line of totality in Texas, the outlook is not much better. The operational runs of both the GFS and European models have, consistently, shown nearly 100 percent cloud cover across much of the state during the early afternoon hours on Monday. There is a fair amount of support for this in the ensembles as an upper-level system crosses the southern plains. Many of these areas could see rain on Monday.

The map below shows the ensemble forecast for percent of the sky covered in clouds on Monday at 1 pm CT. For nearly all of the totality path in Texas, the value is about 75 percent. However, given the consistency in the operational models, I would lean toward a value higher than that at this time.

About this I would say a couple of things. First of all, we’re still a week out. Forecasts can and do change. But this is not a good place to be seven days from the total eclipse. If you really want to see the eclipse with clear skies, the northeastern United States looks like your best bet. Secondly, if you’re staying in Texas, the eclipse will still be quite a treat even with poor weather. Along the line of totality the sky will still get completely dark in the middle of the day, which will be an eerie experience indeed.

We’ll continue to track the eclipse forecast in the days ahead.

Monday

Today will be warm, but not quite as warm as we’ve been anticipating. Mostly cloudy skies should help to limit highs to the mid-80s for much of Houston. It will be a breezy day, with southerly winds at about 15 mph, and gusts up to 25 or even 30 mph. Low temperatures tonight will only drop to about 70 degrees. There will be about a 20 percent chance of showers tonight, and an even lesser likelihood of isolated thunderstorms ahead of an approaching front.

Tuesday

The front should push into Houston during the morning hours on Tuesday, reaching the coast by around noon. We’ll see an additional, low chance of rain with the front’s passage, but then we’ll see quickly clearing skies and drier air moving in with northwesterly winds. These clearer skies will allow highs to briefly reach the lower 80s, but lows will drop into the 50s on Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of gorgeous spring-like days. We’re talking highs in the low- to mid-70s, plenty of dry air, and lots of sunshine. Lows on both nights should drop into the low 50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. Seriously, these look like A+ days.

Friday

This will be another nice day, with highs of about 80 degrees. A few scattered clouds will be possible with the return of the onshore flow, and lows on Friday night will drop to around 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

Both of these days should see highs of around 80 degrees, with partly sunny skies. Sunday will see a decent amount of humidity, and we cannot entirely rule out some light rain showers later in the day. But for the most part, the weekend looks excellent for outdoor activities.

Next week

As mentioned above, rain chances start to increase on Monday, and through the early part of next week, in response to an upper-level system. It’s still too early to have too much confidence, but we’re talking days in the low 80s before a weak front (probably) arrives in the middle of the week.

Summary: A very quiet Easter weekend is expected, with the most annoying weather element likely to be the breeze each day. Our next front arrives early Tuesday after a very warm Monday. It will bring a few showers but nothing too bad, followed up by quiet, pleasant weather later next week.

Is hurricane season really going to be that bad?

Over at The Eyewall, I’ve posted roughly once a month about hurricane season since January. I’m just basically tracking the status of El Niño and Atlantic water temperatures. We’re in the middle of a rather unprecedented global marine heat wave right now. The global oceans hit a record high temperature last month, and we’ve essentially set new daily records for the last full year, every day. It’s not just El Niño. That’s not hurting things, but it does not explain everything. We’ll cover this more at The Eyewall over time, but suffice to say, the Atlantic is one of many bodies of water that is blistering warm for March.

In fact, Atlantic Ocean water temps are already at levels you would typically see in early June. In our posts at The Eyewall, I’ve basically said that you can expect seasonal hurricane forecasts to come surging out of the gate this year. They are going to be calling for active, if not hyperactive levels of activity. They’re going to be ugly. No two ways about it.

The first major entrant in this derby, AccuWeather came out on Wednesday, stating that they expect 20 to 25 named storms and 8 to 12 hurricanes. Because that’s not enough, they framed the season as likely being “explosive.” AccuWeather also highlighted the western Gulf, Florida, and Carolinas for above average activity. In my post yesterday at The Eyewall, I did note that they got their landfall points correct in 2023, but they also missed a couple areas. In 2022 they said the Gulf Coast between Texas and the Florida Panhandle was at greatest risk, as were the Carolinas. There were virtually no major impacts in those areas that season, with Hurricane Ian instead ramming the southwest coast of Florida. This is a long way of me saying that seasonal landfall forecasts have extremely mixed results, so take them all with a grain of salt.

The next major entrant should be Colorado State University, which unveils their outlook late next week at the National Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre.

Obviously, all this elicits a lot of concern from people. We’ve heard from people asking about how worried they should be this year. Others are already using gallows humor to cope already. I think it’s important to say a couple things here. First, as an individual or family, you shouldn’t use a seasonal hurricane forecast as the basis for your preparation. You should prepare the same way each year for hurricane season: Evacuation plans, contingency plans regarding work, pets, and childcare, emergency kits, flood insurance, H-E-B cocoa granola in my case. For you, me, and the lamp post, honestly, seasonal hurricane forecasts are noise, scientific exercises that really don’t tell us anything seriously actionable. Sure, many of us like to know what they say, but in terms of what they actually mean, it’s very little. For governments and businesses, it’s another matter. Second, an active season does not always mean an active season — for Texas. Last year was active. Texas had Tropical Storm Harold, which was probably more beneficial than destructive for the southern part of the state. But aside from that, it was quiet. 1983 was a virtually silent hurricane season overall, except for Hurricane Alicia here in Houston which would easily be a 10 to 20 billion dollar storm today. So, active or quiet, we should prep each year.

Basically, do what you want with seasonal hurricane forecasts. But look, the reality is we live in a hurricane prone location. We accept that fact by living here. So, do what you can to prepare early in case this is the year. And if it’s not, well good for us. But please try not to lose sleep over these forecasts. There’s going to be a lot of noise over the next 2 months in the run up to the season. You’re best served using the time to prepare in case it does end up being our year.

On to the weather.

Today through Easter Sunday

The good news is that travel looks great all weekend. There should be no serious issues. There will likely be some patchy fog on a couple mornings. Aside from that and a breeze each day, especially on Sunday, it looks good. I do think some folks may find the breeze to be a bit much at times. Onshore flow really kicks in this weekend, sending our high temperatures into upper-70s today and 80s tomorrow and Easter Sunday. Morning lows will be in the low-60s tomorrow and mid-60s Sunday.

Rain chances should be close to zero all weekend.

Early next week

Our next cold front is targeting Tuesday. No joke, we’ll probably see one of our warmest days of the year so far on Monday, with highs well into the mid-80s. The number to beat is 89° that we reached on March 5th.

That will precede a frontal passage on Tuesday morning-ish. This front looks no worse right now than the one we had on Monday that brought some downpours and thunder for a short time. Rain totals look modest. That will usher in cooler, drier, nice weather for later next week. Expect lows to probably bottom out in the 50s for a couple pleasant mornings Wednesday and Thursday.

We’ll have the very latest on the forecast for April 8th’s eclipse on Monday. Not a whole lot has changed today, so let’s see what the weekend does, and then we can really dig in on this hard next week.

Summary: After a chilly start Houston is going to see a very fine day of weather. Then we’ll see a warming trend through the weekend. Some clouds will mar festivities on Easter Sunday, but otherwise it should be a mild day. In this post we also take our first real look at an eclipse cloud cover forecast.

Thursday

After a chilly start to the day—for one of the last times this season much of Houston is seeing temperatures in the 40s—we’ll warm nicely with highs reaching the mid-70s. With plenty of dry air in place, this will be another one of those A+ days in Houston, so expect another fine evening. The only concern is air quality, with an Ozone Action Day in place. This is due, in part, to very light winds at the surface. With those winds turning more southerly, expect a bit warmer conditions tonight, with lows mostly in the 50s.

Friday

This will be another sunny, pleasant day. Temperatures will be slightly warmer, in the upper 70s. Southerly winds will also be more noticeable from the south, gusting perhaps to 20 mph. Lows on Friday night will drop down to around 60 degrees.

Saturday

The warming trend continues this weekend as the onshore flow remains in place. Highs on Saturday will be around 80 degrees, with partly to mostly sunny skies. As dewpoints will be around 60 degrees, the air will still feel reasonably dry. Lows on Saturday night will only drop into the upper 60s.

Easter Sunday

Sunday won’t be warm enough to boil an egg, but highs should reach into the low 80s despite partly to mostly cloudy skies. Along with the clouds, winds on Sunday will be a bit gusty from the south. Still there are no concerns about rain or other activities that might preclude egg hunting or bunny hopping. Lows on Sunday night will be mild indeed, dropping only to about 70 degrees.

Monday

The start of the next week will be quite warm, as highs push into the mid- to upper-80s. Could a few inland areas briefly touch 90 degrees? Yes, they could. But I think mostly cloudy skies will inhibit that kind of warming for most of the region. Still, this day will be a reminder that summer is not all that far off as we exit March.

Next week

A front arrives early next week, probably on Tuesday, to bring back more spring-like weather. This likely means highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s for a few days with some drier air. So, nice. There’s not much of a chance of rain with this front it looks like, but that’s not a hard-boiled fact yet.

Eclipse weather

Alright, we’re just on the bleeding edge of having some sense of what to expect for April 8, 2024, when a total eclipse traverses the central part of the state. For those interested in the national outlook, Matt is providing regular updates at The Eyewall. His general conclusion that it’s too early to say anything remotely definitive. And I agree.

Here’s what I can say about Texas. After the front moves into Texas next week, we’re going to see several days of clear weather across the state, from roughly Tuesday through Friday. And after that? The majority of models cloud things up heading into next weekend. At that point we’re really beyond the stage of reliability predictability. For what it’s worth, which is not much, the global model ensembles are showing an average of about 50 to 60 percent cloud cover for the early afternoon of April 8. Generally, the further southwest one goes in the state, the better. And for the time being, at least, Texas looks to be in a little better situation than much of the rest of the country.

We should have something more sensible to say about all of this in Monday’s update.

Summary: Tuesday was one of the nicest days of the year in Houston—I don’t think there was anything to complain about at all. We’re going to see some clouds return today, with a slight chance of showers. But then Thursday and Friday look to bring fantastic weather as well. Houston will warm up with some humidity returning this weekend.

Wednesday

We are going to briefly interrupt our mostly sunny weather with a cloudier day. Typically we see clouds return to Houston with the onshore flow, but in this case we’re still seeing a decidedly northerly flow across the region at the surface, with dry air continuing to move in. So what gives? The answer is that the winds in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere are more southwesterly, and in response to a large upper-level system we’ll see some atmospheric disturbances push through the area today.

This should produce mostly cloudy skies during the daytime hours, and help limit highs to about 70 degrees. It will also allow for a slight chance of rain, perhaps 20 percent, later today. For the most part these showers should be very light. With the dry air in place, and clearing skies, lows tonight should again drop down to near 50 degrees in Houston.

Thursday

The sunny weather is back, with highs in the mid- to upper-70s. As northerly winds shift to come from the south, lows on Thursday night will be a few degrees warmer.

Friday

Another sunny day, with highs in the upper-70s. Southerly winds will be a bit more pronounced, perhaps gusting up to 25 mph. Lows on Friday night will drop to around 60 degrees.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend should bring mostly sunny skies, with highs of around 80 degrees. With the onshore flow in place we’ll see a bit more humidity, but dewpoints will still be far from oppressive. Lows on Saturday night will only drop into the upper 60s.

Sunday

The latter half of the weekend is going to see less sunshine, and more humidity. Look for highs in the low-80s, and a warm night with the temperature falling only to around 70 degrees.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday look warm and muggy next week, with highs in the vicinity of the mid- to upper-80s. This will feel like “summer lite” in Houston, but won’t last as it looks like another front will arrive some time on Tuesday. Some moderate rainfall is possible with this front, but I don’t feel confident in the details. We should return to pleasant spring-like weather for the second half of next week.