Summary: Tuesday was one of the nicest days of the year in Houston—I don’t think there was anything to complain about at all. We’re going to see some clouds return today, with a slight chance of showers. But then Thursday and Friday look to bring fantastic weather as well. Houston will warm up with some humidity returning this weekend.
Wednesday
We are going to briefly interrupt our mostly sunny weather with a cloudier day. Typically we see clouds return to Houston with the onshore flow, but in this case we’re still seeing a decidedly northerly flow across the region at the surface, with dry air continuing to move in. So what gives? The answer is that the winds in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere are more southwesterly, and in response to a large upper-level system we’ll see some atmospheric disturbances push through the area today.
Winds in the upper atmosphere, at about 30,000 feet, are from the southwest this morning. (Weather Bell)
This should produce mostly cloudy skies during the daytime hours, and help limit highs to about 70 degrees. It will also allow for a slight chance of rain, perhaps 20 percent, later today. For the most part these showers should be very light. With the dry air in place, and clearing skies, lows tonight should again drop down to near 50 degrees in Houston.
Thursday
The sunny weather is back, with highs in the mid- to upper-70s. As northerly winds shift to come from the south, lows on Thursday night will be a few degrees warmer.
Friday
Another sunny day, with highs in the upper-70s. Southerly winds will be a bit more pronounced, perhaps gusting up to 25 mph. Lows on Friday night will drop to around 60 degrees.
Saturday
The first half of the weekend should bring mostly sunny skies, with highs of around 80 degrees. With the onshore flow in place we’ll see a bit more humidity, but dewpoints will still be far from oppressive. Lows on Saturday night will only drop into the upper 60s.
Houston will gradually warm up through Monday or Tuesday. (Weather Bell)
Sunday
The latter half of the weekend is going to see less sunshine, and more humidity. Look for highs in the low-80s, and a warm night with the temperature falling only to around 70 degrees.
Next week
Monday and Tuesday look warm and muggy next week, with highs in the vicinity of the mid- to upper-80s. This will feel like “summer lite” in Houston, but won’t last as it looks like another front will arrive some time on Tuesday. Some moderate rainfall is possible with this front, but I don’t feel confident in the details. We should return to pleasant spring-like weather for the second half of next week.
Summary: With clear skies, there was a strange sight in the sky over Houston on Monday shortly after sunset. We explain what that was. Beyond this briefly unidentified flying object, we’ve got a full week of spring-like weather before warming conditions this weekend and early next week. Rain chances are low throughout the period.
It’s a Bird… It’s a Plane… ?
A little before 8:30 pm CT on Monday evening a bright light appeared in the skies over Houston. It did not streak like a meteor, but rather moved overheard and then appeared to emit a puff of gas before dimming and then fading away. I did not see it myself, but received several questions about it in the immediate aftermath. So was this a UFO?
For a short time it was unidentified. However, I soon pieced together that it was related to a Falcon 9 launch that had taken place from Cape Canaveral, Florida, earlier in the evening. As you may know, the rocket’s first stage launches, and when its fuel is mostly spent, the second stage of the rocket separates. This first stage then makes a controlled descent to the ocean and then lands on a drone ship. So this was not the first stage over Texas, but rather the second stage.
After separation this upper stage had continued on to orbit and then released its payload of about two dozen Starlink internet satellites. This second stage, however, is not left to zip around orbit indefinitely. Rather it makes a ‘deorbit burn’ to return into Earth’s atmosphere and burn up. In this case, Texans—for it was visible as far away as Austin, as seen above—were seeing this deorbit burn. The remnants of the second stage then splashed down in the Atlantic Ocean several minutes later. This has happened before over Texas, but typically it occurs further south and west of Houston and is not visible here.
Tuesday
The clear skies that allowed Houston to see the Falcon 9 rocket’s upper stage on Monday night will carry over into today. We’ll see mostly sunny skies and another clear night. Highs today will reach the low 70s, with modest northerly winds of about 10 mph. Temperatures tonight should be a touch cooler than Monday night, dropping down to nearly 50 degrees.
Tuesday will probably be the coolest night of the week for most of Houston. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday
This day will be a bit more interesting, weather-wise. An upper-level disturbance will provide a bit of lift in the atmosphere, and this will allow for the formation of some clouds during the daytime hours. There is even the slight chance, perhaps 10 percent, of a light shower during the late afternoon or early evening. Highs, otherwise, will be in the low 70s. Skies should clear out again overnight, again allowing lows to drop to nearly 50 degrees overnight.
Thursday
A sunny and pleasant day, with highs in the mid-70s. Winds will be light and the air dry, but there will be a subtle shift as winds turn to come from the south. Lows on Thursday night will be warmer, likely in the upper 50s in Houston.
Friday
Another day with mostly sunny skies, probably. Highs will be a bit warmer, in the upper 70s, and a touch more humidity in the air with the modest southerly flow. Winds likely will be a bit more pronounced, at 15 mph with higher gusts.
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend will be warmer, with highs around 80 degrees on Saturday, and the low 80s on Sunday. We’ll also see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with Saturday more likely to have sunshine than Sunday. Also, by Sunday, the air will be fairly humid with dewpoints in the 60s. Still, all of this is relative. Compared to July, this weekend will be quite mild. Both days should see a fairly pronounced southerly wind.
Monday’s highs may feel like we’re on the precipice of summer in Houston. (Weather Bell)
Next week
Monday and possibly Tuesday look rather warm, in the upper 80s, before a front arrives to cool us down some. At this point overall rain chances with the front look fairly low. After the front we should see some days in the 70s and nights in the 50s, maybe.
Eclipse weather
Over at The Eyewall, Matt has a very preliminary look at the cloud cover forecast for the solar eclipse on April 8, across the United States. Short answer: It’s complicated. And we don’t know much yet.
Summary: After a front blows in today, Houston will see mostly sunny conditions this week with a sustained run of lovely spring-like weather. Seriously, it doesn’t get much better than this on the upper Texas coast. Conditions will turn warmer and a bit muggier this weekend.
Goldilocks season
These in-between months in Houston, October and November in the fall, and March and April in the spring, often bring the best weather of the year—if you like mild conditions. With the arrival of a front today, we’re set up for almost a full week of mostly sunny weather, with pleasantly warm days and modestly chilly nights. After some chances today, rain should be non-existent through the weekend.
Knowing what is coming in just a couple of months, please enjoy the great outdoors this week!
Monday
It’s overcast and muggy this morning, with temperatures of about 70 degrees and plenty of humidity. We’ll see some scattered, mostly light showers this morning ahead of a cool front. As this front passes through Houston, likely late morning for areas west of Houston, around noon or 1 pm for downtown, and perhaps 2 or 3 pm for the coast, we are likely to see a broken line of showers with possibly a few thunderstorms. Not everyone will see rain, and those that do are likely to see only a few tenths of an inch as the storms exit quickly to the east.
Highs today will, generally, be in the upper 70s. Drier air will filter in to the area this afternoon, as winds shift to come from the northwest. Winds may be briefly gusty from the west with the front, but should settle down fairly quickly. Lows tonight will drop into the low- to mid-50s in Houston.
Lows on Wednesday morning will be chilly for inland areas. (Weather Bell)
Tuesday
Look for sunny skies, highs in the low 70s, with dry air. Winds will be from the north at about 10 mph. Lows on Tuesday night will drop to near 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for inland areas.
Wednesday
Another day with highs in the low 70s. We will likely see some clouds mix in, due to a somewhat disturbed atmosphere. But this should not result in any precipitation that reaches the ground, except maybe for a few sprinkles near places like Conroe. But for the most part this will be a partly sunny day. Lows again drop to near 50 degrees Wednesday night.
Thursday
A sunny day, with highs in the low- to mid-70s. Lows on Thursday night drop into the 50s.
Friday
You guessed, it more sunshine! By this point there will should be a weak onshore flow reestablished, so we’ll see a bit of an uptick in atmospheric moisture, but overall humidity still looks fairly low.
Houston will see a slow warming trend heading into the weekend. (Weather Bell)
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend looks warmer, with a continued onshore flow. Look for highs, likely, in the low-80s. Saturday looks partly to mostly sunny, while Sunday probably will see more clouds. By Sunday dewpoints will be in the 60s, so the air will feel a bit more sticky.
Next week
Monday and Tuesday of next week look warmer, in the 80s, before we may see some kind of front move in. That probably will bring our next realistic chance of rain.
If you’re wondering about weather for the upcoming eclipse on April 8, we touched on that in our monthly Q&A post on Friday—the bottom line is that it’s too early to say anything sensible.
In this second edition of our new Q&A feature, Eric and Matt tackle an excellent set of questions from you, our most excellent readers.
We do this monthly, and if you’re dying to know something weather- or SCW-related, leave us a comment here or on our many, many social channels – Facebook, Instagram, Threads, X/Twitter, Mastodon, Bluesky (we’re everywhere!) – or hit the Feedback button in the blog’s sidebar.
Let’s get to it.
Q: What does the forecast look like for the solar eclipse on April 8?
A. We have received more questions about the total solar eclipse next month than almost anything that I can remember. And for good reason, it is going to be spectacular—very likely the most dramatic celestial event that most all of us will see in our lifetimes. I cannot wait.
However, in regard the forecast we need to exercise a little bit of patience. Unless we see a very strong signal for high pressure over the state of Texas, confidently forecasting clear or partially clear skies is not something that can be done too far in advance. I plan to make an initial forecast next Thursday, and then we’ll provide regular guidance after that.
– Eric
A preview of things to come: The 2017 total solar eclipse as seen from Casper, Wyoming, by a team of European Space Agency astronomers. (Credit: ESA)
Q: I’ve been noticing that the term hurricane and typhoon are being used interchangeably and frequently by weather forecasters – both on tv and in the paper. I don’t recall this happening in the recent past. Why is this happening and do the terms mean the same thing?
A: The answer depends on where they’re talking about. No, really. Both terms describe the same phenomenon: What we call a hurricane, folks in East Asia call a typhoon. According to the American Meteorological Society’s Glossary of Meteorology, the word “typhoon” originates either from Cantonese (t’ai fung: “great wind”), Arabic (tufan: “smoke”), or Greek (typhon: “monster”). Aristotle described it as such in his text Meteorologica to mean a wind-containing cloud. You can read more about the etymology (and debate) of “typhoon’s” origins on the Wiki page.
Meanwhile, “hurricane” probably derives from “Hurakan,” the Mayan god of wind, storm, and fire. The thought is that the indigenous Taino peoples told Columbus and other Spaniards of this deity, and the name became associated and stuck to what we call hurricanes today.
If you travel to the Indian Ocean or Australia, these storms will be referenced as “cyclones.” I was taught in grade school that Aussies referred to them as “willy willys.” That is not the case. “Willy willy” actually refers to a dust devil which is like a miniature tornado that can form in clear weather (another topic for another day).
But, the bottom line: Hurricane, typhoon, cyclone, tropical cyclone, cyclonic storm are all basically interchangeable at the highest level. Hearing it called one of those names can narrow down for you where it actually occurred. There are occasionally other regional references you may hear, such as “Medicane,” which is essentially a Mediterranean version of a hurricane.
– Matt
Q. In southeast Texas, how has the climate changed over the last 10,000 years? Was this area drier, wetter, more trees, more prairie? How did this effect how people lived?
A. The Texas State Historical Association has a great website with answers to questions like this. I encourage you to visit there for the full details. But the big picture is that 10,000 years ago Texas (and the rest of the present-day United States) were emerging from the last great ice age. At that time, when glaciers reached their greatest extent, average temperatures were 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today. But by 10,000 years ago things were getting back closer to what conditions were like today, although Texas has steadily gotten a bit warmer and drier over recent millennia.
As for how people lived in Houston, how did they do it without air conditioning?
– Eric
Q: When you hear thunder, sometimes it sounds like it is right over you and other times it seems far away. As a meteorologist, are you able to point/pinpoint a specific area in the sky where the thunder is coming from?
A: So the first question to ask is “what is thunder?” Thunder is the audible response you hear when lightning heats and expands the air around the bolt. Remember, lightning is hot, with a temperature in the bolt of up to 50,000°F, almost as hot as last summer in Houston. Just kidding. Sort of. One reason the thunder sounds like it may be right over you is because it could literally be right over you, or at least nearby. In that case, you’re hearing the thunder “right over you” because the lightning strike occurred within a mile or less of your location. I’ve found that usually the loudest thunder I hear is when lightning hits within about a half-mile or so of where I am.
Now, there are other possible reasons for really loud thunder when lightning is nowhere near you. If we have an inversion in place in the atmosphere, or when it’s actually warmer above our heads than at the ground, sometimes those sound waves from the thunder can propagate farther along or just have more impact. So lightning can strike miles away, yet you still hear loud thunder.
Map of lightning strikes on July 28, 2020, in the Houston area. Yikes! (Lightningmaps.org)
So, like anything, it’s complicated! Everything from the air temperature at the ground to the air temperature a few thousand feet up can impact the sound of thunder. Fortunately, we are blanketed with lightning detection sensors today, so we almost always know where lightning strikes or comes from in near-real time. And there’s always the Lightning Distance Calculator. But just remember, if you can hear thunder, it’s time to get inside!
– Matt
Q. Why are models and meteorologists so bad at predicting rain? Apps always say its going to rain and not a drop. This has been happening in the past three years. Something is off.
A.And I took that personally. Seriously, I share your frustrations. A big part of it is that rain can be a very localized phenomenon. Pure misery is watching a radar app during a drought and hopefully seeing heavy showers in the next neighborhood over, but they stop half a mile from your location. Well, guess what, a forecast for rain showers verified for that neighborhood, but failed for yours. Imagine the challenge for us when we must forecast rain chances for a metro area 100 miles across, with varied climates from the coast the piney woods. And all you want to know is whether it will rain at your house.
That’s why you’ll often see a 30 percent chance of rain or a 50 percent chance, or whatever. That means that, for a given forecast area, the percentage of that area expected to see rain—it could be a sprinkle or a deluge—is 30 or 50. It’s a probabilistic answer because we cannot tell you definitively that it will rain. (Except during Hurricane Harvey, of course. One could confidently predict a 100 percent chance of rain at that time).
There are other factors: Even high resolution models cannot account for the physical processes that occur on a small scale, of a few miles or less, that determine whether rain showers develop or dissipate. Finally, it does not help that there are no regular, local weather balloons in Houston.
